Pelletier's Perspective 04.07.08: National League Preview Edition
Posted by Justin Pelletier on 04.07.2008
Spring has sprung and that means the start of baseball season. Today, 411's Justin Pelletier takes a look at the National League and makes fearless, in-season, predictions in the first of a three-part edition of Pelletier's Perspective.
Making fearless, concrete predictions before the season starts is a complex, nail-biting responsibility. That's why we here at the Perspective wait until the season is a week old.
Which teams have what it takes to reach the fall classic? Which players will be in the running for the MVP? Those questions are much easily answered when you have a series to reflect upon. The lesson here kids: Work smarter, not harder.
We'll start in the National League where it seems like every team made strides at become better. Well that's every team except the Giants.
NL EAST
Gold: The New York Mets - Sure Pedro Martinez is out with a hamstring but anybody who knows anything already knew that New York couldn't rely on Pedro. That's why Omar Minya brought in THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL! How can a near playoff team (which didn't have Martinez for most of last year, by the way) add Johan Freckin' Santana and not be the favorite? It can't.
Silver: The Philadelphia Phillies - Only in a division with a New York franchise could a team boast two separate MVPs, an MVP on the horizon and two-legitimate aces and still finish second. Such is the fate of the "Losingest Team in Professional Sports History." Its unresolved bullpen will be Philadelphia's undoing.
Bronze: The Atlanta Braves - It is a testament to Bobby Cox and the rest of the organization that it can lose Andrew Jones and still be consider a legit threat to win one of baseball's toughest divisions. If Jeff Francoeur doesn't rebound, in a huge way, Atlanta simply won't have enough fire power to compete with Philly and NY.
Tin: The Florida Marlins - Florida never fails to turn highly touted youngsters into highly productive professionals. Don't be surprised it Florida adds a few more gems to the diamond they have in Hanley Remirez. In three years, the Marlins may be looking a pennant but this year only Washington keeps them out of the basement.
Scrap Metal: The Washington Nationals - Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes offer a solid foundation but right now the Nats pitching is a project the US Bureau of Reclamation wouldn't undertake.
NL CENTRAL
Gold: The Chicago Cubs - Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Remirez and Kosuke Fukudome will be one of the toughest stretches any pitcher will face all year. Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly and Rich Hill offer the North Siders enough pitch as well. Chicago's downfall, however, could be its continued loyalty to Kerry Wood. The guy is toast and the sooner Lou Piniella realizes that and installs Carlos Marmol into the closers role the better.
Silver: The Milwaukee Brewers - Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun and Corey Hart are as close as any NL team comes to matching Howard, Utley and Rollins in Philly. Add to that a top 10 second baseman (Rickie Weeks), a top 10 shortstop (J.J. Hardy), the addition of Mike Cameron and the fact that Bill Hall couldn't possibly have as bad a year as in 2007 and the Brewers offense is set. But all that offense will still struggle to overcome Ben Sheets' enviable injury, Yovani Gallardo's current injury and the fact that Eric Gagne's pitching abilities have plummeted into little more than a punch line.
Bronze: The Cincinnati Reds - I couldn't imagine a worse manager in Cincinnati than Dusty Baker. Baker is a fine skipper but is clearly out of his mind. That is the only way to explain why Corey Patterson and Scott Hatteberg are starting (in center and at first, respectively) when studs Jay Bruce and Joey Votto are waiting in the wings. The sooner Bruce and Votto, as well as pitchers Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey and Edinson Volquez, make an impact on the big squad the better.
Copper: The Pittsburgh Pirates - No this isn't 1992 and no Barry Bonds and Andy Van Slyke are not trolling the outfield. Yet the Pirates have managed to pull themselves out of the NL Central gutter. Pittsburgh finally has a couple of quality arms in Tom Gorzelanny and Ian Snell. It also has a respectable line up featuring Jason Bay, Freddy Sanchez and Adam LaRoche. Of course playing in the piss-poor Central is what Buc fans can thank for this season of mediocrity.
Tin: The Houston Astros - Hunter Pence is good. Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee are great but every where else you look in Houston you find, either, mediocrity or head scratching personnel decisions. Ty Wigginton is a nice player but that all he'll ever be. Miguel Tejada is on the down side of his career and a lighting rod in the steroid scandal. Kaz Matsui is an overrated piece of junk and asking Michael Bourn to be more than a fourth outfielder, much less your lead-off hitter, is ludicrous. Roy Oswalt anchors a staff that is so poor, it inspires comeback thoughts from guys like Juan Gonzalez. Houston acted like a contender when it brought in the aforementioned offensive players but, in reality, the Stros would have been better severed dealing the few valuable comities they have and starting from scratch because, as currently constructed, they're going nowhere fast.
Scrap Metal: The St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louie is in disarray. The man who was supposed to be the franchise saving ace is the clean-up hitter. Every pitcher worth a damn is injured and the remaining starters would only inspire confidence at an old-timers game. But, alas, the Cardinals boast Albert Pujlos, the best hitter in baseball. Wait!? Pujlos has an arm injury? This could spell trouble.
NL WEST
Gold: The Arizona Diamondbacks - This is the year Zona's commitment to the farm system pays off. Eric Byrnes is already a star and one of the most likeable players in the game. Centerfielder, Chris Young proved last year that he's a star when he finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting (against stiff competition). This year is the year Stephen Drew and Justin Upton step out of their big brothers' shadows and become stars in their own right. Add to those players, Conor Jackson, Mark Reynolds and Chris Snyder and the D'Backs will be scary. The return of Chad Tracy adds another dangerous bat to an already loaded line up. Pitching is where Arizona will really shine. Brandon Webb is one of the top five hurlers in the NL and the addition of Danny Haren, from Oakland, forms a formidable top of the rotation. If Randy Johnson can be half the pitcher he once was, the D'Backs will be the class of the NL.
Silver: The Los Angeles Dodgers - Replacing Juan Pierre with Andre Ethier is the right move because Ethier seems like he can actually play. If Matt Kemp and James Loney can continue to progress, the Dodgers have three players on the rise to match with established stars, Andruw Jones and Russell Martin. If Jeff Kent can continue to defy time, LA's offense should be set. The pitching should surpass the offense as Brad Penny will lead a solid staff. LA should contend for a playoff spot as long as Takashi Saito can stay healthy and continue to hold down the closer's role.
Bronze: The San Diego Padres - I want to like San Diego more but the cold-hard fact is that the Fathers just won't score enough runs. Andrian Gonzalez borders on stud status and Khalil Green and Kevin Kouzmanoff are above average offensive players at their respective positions (SS and 3B) but every where else you look you find below average sticks. Jim Edmonds has got to be about 50 and his lack of range means that his defense won't make up for his rapidly declining bat. It's a shame the offense stinks too because Jake Peavy and Chris Young make up the best one-two punch in baseball (rivaled closely by Arizona) and the rest of the staff (led by Greg Maddux) isn't too shabby either.
Tin: The Colorado Rockies - The amount of injuries sustained by all Major League teams will pale in comparison to the number of injuries suffered by people leaping off the Rockies bandwagon. Colorado has a nice line up (though, nothing to shout about) but there is no way its pitching will sustain over the entire season. Matt Holliday may very well put up MVP-like numbers and Troy Tulowitzki can continue to be the nation's darling but the Rockies will prove to be a flash-in-the pan in the ultra-competitive West.
Scrap Metal: The San Francisco Giants - Ladies and Gentlemen, my I present to you THE WORST TEAM IN BASEBALL! The Giants not only stink, they're old. The team is filled with aging, declining veterans, with no youth to replace them. Aaron Rowand made career suicide when he decided to chase the money and sign in SF. Outside of Rowand, the only other position player worth a damn is, catcher, Bengie Molina. I'd advise SF to have a fire sale but most of its players have no value. The real tragedy is that Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are the best pair of young arms on any team. Let's hope this atomic bomb of a season doesn't kill their confidence.
I had no idea this was going to be a multiple part column but I guess I have baseball fever. Tune in tomorrow as I break down the American League with similar keen insight and Wednesday when I give to you the playoffs and award winners.
Unfortunately, all this attention to baseball leaves me no time to devote to the beginning of the MLS season. Oh well, better luck next year Becks. There's a reason baseball is called AMERICA'S PASS TIME!
