The House of Crouse 05.03.08
Posted by Mark Crouse on 05.03.2008
Come on into The House and check out the debut of the Snap Judgement Awards, where one month of stats is used to evaluate how your fantasy baseball players will produce this season. Also, NFL Draft insight, and The Soapbox takes a distraction-causing reciver to task.
Greetings, and welcome to my humble online abode. This week in The House of Crouse we'll take a good, hard look at baseball's first month and how it affects your fantasy team. I'll give my take on last week's NFL Draft, and a certain loquacious wide receiver becomes the latest subject of The Soapbox.
Let's start with some fantasy baseball news and notes.
-Alex Rodriguez went on the 15-day DL on Thursday with a strained quad. If you own A-Rod, you can't trade him since he should be back shortly, so just hold out with someone on your bench. The injury will likely affect his steals totals, but shouldn't affect his power production.
-John Smoltz went on the DL and a report has surfaced that he'll return as the Braves' closer. If he assumes that role, he has a history of being a top-notch option. If you own him, wait until he is healthy and his role is defined, and then trade him to a team that needs saves. He will likely make a return to the DL at some point this season, since there has been nothing done about his shoulder except rest, and that didn't work the first time he was on the DL this season.
-Yankees starting pitcher Phil Hughes has a rib fracture and was placed on the DL. If you were one of the owners who placed expectations on the highly touted prospect, cut your losses unless you are in a keeper league or have room on your team's DL. Hughes wasn't pitching well at all before his injury, so don't hold your breath for him this year.
-Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki was placed on the DL with a leg injury and is unlikely to return until the All-Star break. Tulo was hitting .152 so far this year, so we won't know if he can turn it around for another couple of months. The entire Rockies lineup has struggled so far, so keep Tulo on your DL until he comes back and give him another shot. Last year wasn't a fluke, so stick with him.
-The Seattle Mariners have called up their top two prospects, Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentin, to boost their struggling offense. Both should be picked up and will do some damage. If you are a victim of all the recent additions to the DL in MLB, these guys can get you by until your injured players return.
This week marks the end of April. With one month of the baseball season gone, it's time for the House of Crouse Snap Judgement Awards, where I read the early stats like tea leaves and give you, the reader some insight into what to do with said players. Get ready, because our first award is...
Waiver Wire Hitter of the Month-This award is presented to the hitter that absolutely no one would have drafted and has provided his lucky owner with production well beyond expectations. And the award goes to:
Nate McLouth-OF-PIT (.342 AVG, 7 HR, 25 RBI, 2 SB, 24 R)-Sure, the charismatic Pirate center fielder had 22 steals in 329 AB in 2007. But he also batted .258, and played for a bottom-feeding offensive team. Unless you are an astute owner in an NL-only league who took a flier on him, McLouth was an afterthought in your draft. His seven home runs are already more than half of his thirteen in 2007, which means he's having the month of his life.
Will he continue his roll? I'm betting he won't, but the addition of another overachiever, Xavier Nady, has boosted the Pirate offense to at least average standards, meaning when McLouth goes back to producing the numbers of a leadoff man, he'll still have some value. If you have him, keep him, but don't expect more months like April. If you don't have him, don't trade for him, since he's at the peak of his value.
Waiver Wire Pitcher of the Month-This award is presented to the pitcher that flew under the radar at your draft. While suckers were taking flyers on Dontrelle Willis and Joe Borowski, this hurler went unnoticed. And the award goes to:
Cliff Lee-SP-CLE (5-0, 0.96 ERA, 32 K in 37.2 IP, 0.56 WHIP)-Lee has won his first five starts, going six innings or more in each, and almost striking out a batter per inning. He has a track record of success, winning 18 games in 2005, but had an awful 2007, to the tune of a 6.29 ERA in 16 starts. Based on that stat line, no one drafted Lee this season. He pitches for what should be a good team offensively, but with a sketchy bullpen due to Borowski's injury juggling roles.
If you were an early-adopter on Lee, congrats up to this point. He will regress to the mean at some point, but his strikeout rate means he is doing more than just getting lucky bounces. Keep him if you own him, and look for Lee to be a top pitcher until at least the All-Star break. He may even be a surprise for the entire year since he obviously has the stuff to produce to some degree.
Underachieving Hitter Award-This award is presented to the hitter whose production is so lacking (without injury) compared to their draft status his owners rue the day they selected said player, and are stuck keeping them since said player's value has been skewed to the point that they cannot be traded. And the award goes to:
Ryan Howard-1B-PHI (.172 AVG, 5 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R, .691 OPS)-Howard has started dismally for another year, cementing his reputation as a sluggish starter. He rebounded last year to have a great year, so his owners should take heart in his ability to get hot in a hurry. He also has the hottest hitter in the league in Chase Utley helping him, as well as reigning MVP Jimmy Rollins once he gets healthy.
If you drafted Howard, you had to know this was a possibility. You'll get 40 homers out of him still, but he'll strike out a ton like he always has. In short, stay the course, and you'll get what you expected. Trading Howard would be a tragic decision.
Underachieving Pitcher Award-This award is presented to the pitcher whose production, (without injury) has thwarted his owner's plan to make him the ace of the staff. And the award goes to:
C.C. Sabathia-SP-CLE (1-4, 7.88 ERA, 33 K in 26.2 IP, 1.78 WHIP)-It's ironic that the Indians feature the biggest underachieving and overachieving pitchers in the league so far. Sabathia has been nothing short of a bust, with owners taking him in the top five pitchers in almost every draft. Since I've never been accused of being a mature individual, I'll take the opportunity to say I told you so, referencing his colossal innings total from '07.
If you own Sabathia, try to find someone who believes he will turn around and deal him if you can get decent value. No one will give you equivalent value to where he was drafted, but I don't think he'll live up to the hype in '08.
Last week's NFL Draft was relatively uneventful, with pretty much every team filling gaps in their roster, but doing so without much fanfare. Outside of Darren McFadden, the selections lacked sizzle, but fantasy owners will want to take note of a few players based on opportunity and skill. Let's take a look at the players we'll likely see drafted when the leaves turn colors.
-Darren McFadden-RB-OAK-McFadden lands in a good fantasy situation in Oakland, with only Justin Fargas there to share carries with. Look for the former Razorback to get his share, with over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns. He will make a great #2 back with upside, not to mention a prime keeper league candidate.
-Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco-QB-ATL and BAL-These guys are very similar since their teams have no other options at quarterback and will get their chance sooner rather than later. Both are good late-round keeper league options, but neither will contribute in '08, since they will likely sit and learn their respective systems. And that's for the best, especially in Baltimore, where Kyle Boller once came in with high hopes and started right out of the gate, and we all know how that turned out.
-Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly-WR-WAS-The Redskins took Thomas and Kelly in the second round and boosted their receiving corps tremendously. Thomas was predicted to go as early as #11 overall, but lasted until #33. It's tough to tell how much either of these wideouts will produce in their rookie seasons, but the Skins need them to complement Santana Moss. They wouldn't have taken them if they didn't plan on playing them right away, considering they had other needs, like defensive line.
-Felix Jones-RB-DAL-Jerry Jones was completely transparent about is desire for Jones, so I don't doubt he will get carries right out of the gate. He'll share carries with Marion Barber, but probably not enough to be a factor in your fantasy league. A late-round flyer is okay, but don't bet on him to start for your team.
I'll have more fantasy insight on this year's rookie class as we get closer to the season. Keep an eye out, as I should have my first mock draft ready sometime in July. Until then, we'll close the books on the NFL for a couple of months.
We'll finish up this week with a discussion I thought I'd never start, since this player's antics have entertained the masses for years now. But when you're wrong, you're wrong, so Chad Johnson, you've just entered The Soapbox.
For weeks, the media has reported that Cincy receiver Chad Johnson has demanded a trade from the team that has him under contract for three more seasons. For the life of me, I can't figure out specifically why he wants out, but the team has categorically said that they will not trade the All-Pro receiver.
For the record, I agree with the Bengals. The Redskins reportedly offered them a first-round pick in this past draft, as well as a conditional selection next year. If Cincy didn't take that offer, they are set on sticking to their guns, and I say kudos to them. Ocho Cinco has a ton of talent, but his agent has advised him poorly this time. He has been in the top five paid receivers in the league since he signed his current deal, so he has no gripe that he's underpaid. If he wants out for some other reason, tough luck, since he's under contract. If Cincy lays down and lets their cantankerous star dictate how they operate, it will set a precedent greater than any other similar situation NFL teams have dealt with. The Eagles let Terrell Owens sit when he became a malcontent, and eventually traded him, and it worked out for them. I think Johnson will cave at some point near the start of the season and fly straight, but until then he'll make as many waves as possible, and that's a shame.
That's all for the House for this week. For goodness sake, drop me a line at mark_crouse@hotmail.com, or post a comment here under the column. Until next time, good luck, and godspeed.
