Musings From the Bleachers 05.08.08: A Young Gun Analysis, American League
Posted by Frank Fedele on 05.08.2008
There was a change this offseason on how teams, even contending teams, were constructing their starting rotations. Gone was the idea of bringing in hired guns to fill in the staff holes. A renewed emphasis on young pitching has begun with even the mighty Red Sox and Yankees leaning on young pitchers to fill out their staffs. How has this worked thus far this season in the American League??
Young Gun Analysis
For many years contending teams would bolster their starting rotations in the off season by either trading for or signing veteran pitchers from other staffs. This season a new approach began to emerge, with teams reaching into their farm system for help rather than outside the team. There were still big names in the trade market, Johan Santana being the major one, but teams were now reluctant to include prized arms in deals to land help and began to plan on using these arms to fill out their rotations. How has this worked so far for the American League clubs? Let's find out.
American League East
New York Yankees
Phil Hughes: 0-4 9.00 ERA
Ian Kennedy: 0-2 8.37 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Umm, not so good. Both pitched poorly and have been removed from the rotation. One due to injury (Hughes) and one due to demotion (Kennedy).
Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester: 2-2 3.94 ERA
Clay Buchholz: 2-2 3.71 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Promising. Both youngsters are pitching well thus far. It does probably help that there is little pressure on either of them with the rest of the Red Sox rotation being so strong.
Tampa Bay Rays
Andy Sonnanstine: 5-1 4.63 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Very promising. Sonnanstine's ERA is high, but he is part of a surprising Rays club that looks to not be a doormat this season in their division.
Baltimore Orioles
Matt Albers: 2-1 2.13 ERA
Adam Loewen: 0-1 7.85 ERA
Garrett Olson: 1-0 2.08 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Albers was part of the haul the Orioles received from the Astros for Miguel Tejada over the winter and Loewen and Olson are two of their top pitching prospects. Thus far Albers and Olson have looked solid, while Loewen has had issues. Olson has only pitched two games thus far, so we shall see if the league starts to catch up to him.
The Toronto Blue Jays began the process last year of integrating young arms into their rotation and Jesse Litsch, Dustin McGowan and Shaun Marcum are enjoying strong sophomore seasons.
American League Central
Chicago White Sox
John Danks: 2-2 3.12 ERA
Gavin Floyd: 3-1 2.50 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Darn good. Floyd has flirted with a no hitter and Danks is holding his own. These two are the main pieces of trades last season when some veterans were moved.
Detroit Tigers
Armando Galarraga: 2-1 1.88 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Extremely good. Armando has been the Tigers top pitcher thus far in this short season, surprising with the veterans at the top of that rotation like Verlander and Bonderman. Will he come back to earth? A little should be expected at least, any more than that only time will tell.
Kansas City Royals
Luke Hochevar: 2-1 4.86 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Hochevar was the #1 pick not too long ago for the Royals and is pitching decent thus far. Somewhat wild with 9 walks, but hopefully that will smooth out as he adjusts to life in the majors. Prognosis mixed.
Minnesota Twins
Nick Blackburn: 2-2 3.65 ERA
Prognosis thus far: With Johan Santana traded to the Mets in the offseason, a pitcher was needed to stand up and support the staff. The leading candidate was Francisco Liriano, but he does not seem fully recovered from arm surgery. Thus far Blackburn and Livian Hernandez have picked up the slack and helped the Twins.
The Cleveland Indians have no rookies in their starting staff, but that could change soon if their struggles continue.
American League West
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Nick Adenhart: 0-0 11.37 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Adenhart has been hit hard thus far since being called up, but has the raw skills to eventually be a solid pitcher for the Angels. He has been extremely wild with 10 walks in 6 1/3 innings thus far and needs to fix that in order to stay in the major. Prognosis, negative.
Oakland Athletics
Greg Smith: 2-1 2.54 ERA
Dana Eveland: 3-2 3.05 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Outstanding. Both were prospects from the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren deal, which both teams are very happy with thus far. Both pitchers have pitched extremely well, which may make trading Joe Blanton easier if the Athletics get an offer they can't refuse.
Texas Rangers
Kasson Gabbard: 1-0 2.18 ERA
Prognosis thus far: Gabbard was part of the haul for Eric Gagne from the Red Sox and thus far has pitched well for the Rangers. Gabbard will probably never be a top of the rotation guy, but will give the Rangers solid innings, something they need in large quantities.
The Seattle Mariners have a veteran staff that thus far has let them down. Changes may be in the offing.
Conclusions
So a bit of a mixed bag, with some very solid debuts in Oakland and Boston and issues up in New York. Will this trend continue?? With the prices of even marginal starting pitching rising to ridiculous levels, it makes sense to arm your team with young cheap arms to allow you to maximize your salary elsewhere.
Next week we will look at the National league, where the San Francisco Giants have put Barry Zito back in the starting rotation. Yet another reason to stay inside the organization and not import expensive arms from elsewhere.
