MLB Fastball 06.14.08: Indians Might Have Sabathia On Trade Block

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 06.14.2008

The Cleveland Indians have something to think about before the July 31st trade deadline. If playoff hopes are slipping and the right offer comes their way, is the time right to deal ace C.C. Sabathia, who is unlikely to be re-signed over the offseason because of the amount of money he can command? In this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein examines the situation and the potential trade partners with a reported interest in the services of the 28-year old lefty.

Indians Face Potential Parting With Their AcePlayoff Hopes To Determine If Cleveland Trades Sabathia

Photo Credit: Yahoo! Sports/AP PhotoC.C. Sabathia, a pending free agent this offseason, could be dealt by the Indians if playoff hopes look bleak.

To trade or not to trade – that is the question the Cleveland Indians are asking themselves with regard to the ace of their starting rotations, 28-year old left-hander C.C. Sabathia. With a growing list of injuries to big name stars, and currently ranking third in the American League Central division with 68 games played, the Indians must determine if it's time to let go of the hurler they drafted 10 years ago.

On the surface, the Indians' season is nowhere near over. They are only 6.5 games behind the AL Central-leading Chicago White Sox and just one game behind the second place Minnesota Twins. With plenty of baseball left in the 2008 campaign, Cleveland is nowhere near out of it. This is especially true since Minnesota hasn't been playing the most amazing ball as of late and I wouldn't be so confident that the White Sox won't just crumble before our very eyes at some point this season.

It is, however, difficult to remain in the thick of things with a disabled list that continues to be occupied by some of the team's top stars. Cleveland's latest loss is catcher Víctor Martínez, who will miss at least six- to eight-weeks as he goes in for right elbow surgery. First baseman/designated hitter Travis Hafner has been on the disabled list since May 26 with a right shoulder strain and has yet to be cleared to start a rehab assignment. Second basemen Josh Barfield went on the DL on the same day as Martínez (June 12) with a strained left middle finger after playing just three games with the Indians following a call-up from Triple-A Buffalo. In the pitching department, last year's 19-game winner Fausto Carmona has been sidelined since May 24 with a strained left hip. While Carmona is expected to go on a rehab assignment next week, the Indians will be without Jake Westbrook, who is out for the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery.

Those are some pretty devastating injuries to a team that ranks in the bottom-five in the league offensively and has presented itself as a middle-of-the-pack pitching squad, at best. As a result, it's tough to see this team hanging in there even if it's not yet out of the race.

And that's what Cleveland must assess right now. If management believes the Indians, who won the AL Central last year for the first time since 2001, can play through the injuries and stay in the race, then moving key healthy individuals is not the wisest idea. However, any doubt in Cleveland's ability to get the job done might signal an aggressive push toward trading Sabathia.

Sabathia is in the final year of his contract and is all but assumed to be headed toward free agency over the offseason. While the Indians would love to hang on to Sabathia, they're not ready to plunk down the around $20 million per year it's assumed he's going to command on a six- to seven-year deal. They just don't have that kind of coin. Therefore, if the Indians come to the conclusion that the playoffs are slipping away, it's best for the organization to deal their star pitcher to a contending team willing to give them a bunch of prospects/current major leaguers rather than just ride out the rest of the season and lose Sabathia for absolutely nothing.

I don't anticipate the Indians making that decision just yet. They're not out of the division race and there's still a month and a half before the deadline. But the offers are sure to start rolling in soon, and Cleveland needs to start thinking about the possibilities of parting ways with Sabathia.

The rumor mill has several teams interested in Sabathia if he were to become available. The New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Colorado Rockies are the most talked about contenders thus far. Even though it would be ridiculous, I wouldn't quite count the New York Mets out of the hunt – even though I doubt they'd land him. And despite having a full starting rotation as it is, you know the Boston Red Sox are eyeing every big name on the block.

The Yankees seems the most logical out of every team listed. For one, they're desperate. I still support the fact that they didn't want to lose both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy over the offseason for Santana. However, not making that deal has looked bad for the Yankees thus far in 2008, and I'm sure they wouldn't make that same decision twice. Now, I can't say it would cost the Yankees the exact same package to grab Sabathia, since I'm sure teams have soured on the Yankees' young starters and wouldn't ask for Hughes and Kennedy this go around. But a similar package, likely including at least one of them – probably Hughes, would have to go Cleveland's way. Also, the Yankees have the cash required to re-sign Sabathia following this season. Thus, he doesn't become just a rental. And, lets be honest, it's not as if the Yankees couldn't use a lefty capable of going deep into games.

I think the Cubs have the second best shot at landing Sabathia. My one disclaimer is that I'm not entirely too sure how willing the Cubs are going to be in offering another huge contract, especially considering their impending sale. If there were ever a year to take chances, though, this would be it. The Cubs sport the best record in baseball. And despite the injury bug nailing Alfonso Soriano this season, Chicago has a strong shot at making some noise. Now is not the time to remain conservative and hold off on moves that can greatly increase the Cubs' shot at ending the long championship drought. Placing Sabathia in a starting rotation between current eight-game winners in right-handers Carlos Zambrano (2.98 ERA) and Ryan Dempster (2.81 ERA) would give them an incredible top three. The Cubs definitely have some chips they can toss Cleveland's way, including outfielder Félix Pié. Management just needs to decide if they're prepared to add on another huge contract to the payroll, since it would be foolish to make a deal involving top prospects simply for a rental.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Dodgers join the Yankees as the top two candidates in line to land Sabathia. Rosenthal also points out, however, that the Dodgers could be in line to pursue a batter for some offensive improvement. They could afford a jump in either area, and have plenty of youngsters currently in the MLB and in the minors to get a deal done. Rosenthal makes the point that whenever Rafael Furcal and Andruw Jones return, the offense will get better. However, I think that area of the game is a greater need for the Dodgers right now, especially since we don't really know when those guys are returning and how well they're going to play once they hit the field. Remember, Jones was only batting .165 before he went down. The Dodgers' pitchers might not be scoring a ton of wins. But Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda have been pitching decent ball, while Brad Penny appears to be getting a tad better based on his last two starts. Clayton Kershaw is the other pitcher in the mix, but he can't be rushed here. He doesn't have a win in four starts, but he's a rookie and needs some time. Having only given up two runs in three of his four starts is impressive, even if he isn't going too deep into games. He will get better. Now, that rotation might not be mind-boggling, but it's much better than an offense that ranks 28th in home runs (44) and 24th in runs scored (281). Therefore, if the Dodgers are going to be buyers around the deadline and offer the likes of Matt Kemp, James Loney and Andre Ethier, it should be for a bat.

The Rockies are an interesting trade partner. They might not have to give up a load of prospects in return for Sabathia. They may have to toss in a prospect or two, but third baseman Garrett Atkins or outfielder Matt Holliday would be the marquee player headed in the return back to Cleveland. I doubt the Indians would be interested in acquiring Holliday considering he's a free agent following the 2009 season. And if the Indians can't afford to re-sign Sabathia this offseason, there's no way they're going to be able to ink Holliday after next year. Atkins, however, makes a bit more sense. He is only on a one-year contract, but it shouldn't cost nearly as much to re-sign him this offseason as it would Sabathia or Holliday next year. With Ian Stewart waiting in the wings, the Rockies might be inclined to part with Atkins in order to put Stewart at the hot corner. An Atkins and a couple of prospects for Sabathia deal really works for both teams. The Rockies are in desperate need of star pitching. And the Indians could use some more production at the plate. The only issue that arises is whether the Rockies want to fork over the big dough to keep Sabathia, especially with Holliday's lingering free agency. But can they really afford to pass up an opportunity for pitching of this caliber? I don't think so.

I don't think the Mets or Red Sox will land Sabathia. And their interest is more from my speculation than anything that's been reported. The Mets would love nothing more than to stack their rotation with Santana and Sabathia. But to spend over $40 million a year on those two is insane. Plus, they have a more pressing need offensively right now. The Red Sox also don't have a need in the starting rotation, especially considering the plethora of options they already sport – most of which are doing an admirable job every time they toe the mound. So, even though the Red Sox never shy away from going after the big name, it just seems pointless for them to put their resources toward a starter they don't really need.

If the Indians decide it's right to trade Sabathia, which I'm sure won't happen for at least a month and would require a significant distance between themselves and the division lead, then I think the Yankees have the best shot at landing him. As I said before, this is a team desperate to find some consistency in the starting rotation, have the young talent necessary to make a deal happen and naturally have the cash to get Sabathia re-signed to the six- or seven-year deal he's reportedly going to pursue.

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Until next time!

~ Neil Borenstein