The Weekly MLB Rundown 07.04.08: The Independence Day Spectacular!

Posted by A.J. Stevens on 07.04.2008

We're halfway through the season and are taking a look at surprises both good and bad, what teams need to do to stay in the hunt, and much much more! It's all here as I show off my 1337 Photoshoppery and break the 3,000-word mark in a Very Special MLB Rundown!



LEADING OFF

We're halfway through the season -- it really does go too fast -- and have lined up a whole mess of features for this week's column.

THIS WEEK IN NEWS: INJURIES TO CATCHERS EDITION

Michael Barrett fouls ball off of own face
Um... ouch. In a completely bizarre accident, a second member of the Padres' battery left the field after sustaining a blow to the face from a batted ball. Unlike Chris Young, this was strangely self-inflicted, as Barrett's form basically moved him into position to be caught directly under the helmet by the foul ball. This was a scary moment, as Barrett was face down on the ground for a long time after being struck. The initial prognosis is a fractured nose, and Barrett may wind up on the DL for a couple of weeks, and will definitely miss the Padres' series in Phoenix with the Diamondbacks.

Speaking of catchers and Diamondbacks...

Chris Snyder put on 15-day DL with fractured left testicle
Nothing to see here. Move along.

Benjie Molina takes direct hit to the groin from fastball
What is this, a theme this week? NO COMMENT.

Humberto Quintero hit in head by bat, put on 15-day DL with concussion
Finally, a player gets a concussion and immediately gets sent to the DL. Thankfully the Astros are doing something right this season.

The saddest part of this one was watching the Astros' TV station interview backup catcher Brad Ausmus' two daughters. The analyst asked them if they ever worried about their father. The older one said, "yes, especially after watching what happened to Quintero yesterday." I understand a little about how families have to deal with husbands and fathers away from home for extended periods of time, but I never would have imagined that the players' families would be worried about players getting hurt.

WALKOFFS OF THE WEEK

• Clete Thomas, Tigers, vs. St. Louis (walk-off walk!)


• Jason Bay, Pirates, vs. Tampa Bay


• Ronnie Belliard, Nationals, vs. Baltimore


• Jorge Cantu, Marlins, vs. Arizona


• Josh Willingham, Marlins, vs. Washington


• Ken Griffey, Reds, vs. Pittsburgh


• Orlando Cabrera, White Sox, vs. Cleveland


• Willie Bloomquist, Mariners, vs. Toronto


• A.J. Stevens Pierzynski, White Sox, vs. Cleveland (2nd HR of game)


• Troy Glaus, Cardinals, vs. New York Mets (2nd HR of game)

DRUBBING OF THE WEEK

San Francisco Giants 11-1 Oakland Athletics, June 29
This game featured only two home runs, one of which came for the A's in the second inning, scoring their only run of the game. The Giants, boosted by a 5 RBI performance by Rich Aurilia, scored the majority of their runs in the 4th and 5th innings like this: double, double, double, single, single, single; triple, double, walk, walk, double, single. In fact, all of the runs scored in the 4th inning came with two outs. The person who made the third out in both the 4th and the 5th innings? Perennial All-Star and future HOF candidate Omar Vizquel.

Honorable mention of suckitude: San Diego Padres 15-8 Colorado Rockies, June 30

But wait, you're saying: this was only a 7-run game, whereas the Bay Area game was ten runs! How do you justify this as a drubbing?

Simple: The Rockies were leading 8-3 after 5 innings. Coughing up 12 unanswered runs in any situation counts. A terrible performance from the Rockies, as it seems that they've entered the hot race for "most disappointing team of the year" (see also: Padres, Mariners, Mets, and Tigers).

But wait, there's more...
Previously, I took you behind the scenes, as it were, behind some of the workings of the column. This section was written Wednesday, before the 18-7 pastage of the Rangers by the Yankees. This game trumps both of the above games, because it has elements of both games:

1. The Rangers were leading 7-6 after 6 innings


2. It's an 11-run deficit


3. The Yankees scored 12 unanswered runs in the 7th and 8th innings

Rundown favorite Edwar Ramirez got the win in this game, too. Couldn't do this story without mentioning that. :-)

PITCHING PERFORMANCES OF THE WEEK

Aaron Cook's 79-pitch complete game
Aaron Cook of the Rockies vs. the Padres. 79 pitches for a complete game is excellent, especially seeing how there are some pitchers that cannot seem to go more than 4 innings before hitting the 100-pitch threshold. Let's take a look at some things that make up such a low-pitch-count complete game:

• No walks. Needless to say, a walk is a complete waste of an at-bat for a pitcher. You wind up with a runner on base, you could have controlled your pitches better, and of course, you have thrown at least four pitches in that at-bat, which needlessly brings your pitch count up.


• Few strikeouts. Now wait a minute, I hear you saying: aren't strikeouts a good thing? Yes, but not if you are looking for a low pitch count. In a perfect game where the pitcher retires all 27 batters on three-pitch strikeouts, which to my knowledge has never occurred even on RBI Baseball, the pitcher still throws 81 pitches. Therefore, the more the ball gets put into play, the better.


• Few hits. Five of 'em surrendered by Cook. A hit may or may not be as detrimental to a low pitch count as a walk.


• Double plays. The Fathers obliged by hitting into two double plays this game.


• Few 3-ball counts on batters. Cook only went to three balls on one batter - a full count to Brian Giles in the first inning, which ended in a double play.


• Free swinging. Of the 30 Padres that Cook faced, four put the first pitch into play, and a whopping 12 put the second pitch into play. The highlight of Cook's night was a 5-pitch fourth inning that went: strike, groundout, popout, strike, popout. Gracious.

Angels no-hit Dodgers, lose
Jered Weaver became the answer to a trivia question this week as the Angels lost a game 1-0 to the Dodgers, despite Weaver and relief pitcher Jose Arredondo combining to no-hit the boys in blue over eight innings. A fielding error, stolen base, and throwing error set up the sacrifice fly needed to score Blake Dewitt in the bottom of the 5th inning, which proved to be the difference-maker, as Chad Billingsley turned in a masterful performance himself, scattering 3 hits over 7 innings and shutting down the Halos. Weaver's game score of 73 doesn't even place him in the top 10 games pitched so far this season.

If there's one thing we at the Rundown love more than walk-offs and extra inning games, it's no-hitters. We were excited to watch Jon Lester no-hit the Royals earlier this year, and were rooting for the Angels more than usual so we could watch another no-no. Alas, it wasn't to be, and we'll have to wait until later in the year for our second pitching gem.

THE YEAR (SO FAR) IN REVIEW (or, how'm I doin'?)

Biggest surprise: Tampa Bay Rays. I'm pretty sure that this is everyone's answer, though. The Rays led the Grapefruit League in spring training, which quite rightly was not taken as a season predictor by anybody. Now, we're one week away from the All-Star Game, and the Rays are in front by a comfortable 3 1/2 games, having just swept the Red Sox at Tropicana for the second time this season. Everything seems to be coming together for them at this point, with strong pitching from both ends of the bullpen, and improved defense (fielding PCT of .985, up .005 points average from the past 4 years) from a group of young players. Pitching and defense, folks, those are the keys. They could use another "power bat" in the lineup besides Carlos Pena and the surprising Evan Longoria, but overall the Rays are getting on base (.341 team OBP) often enough to get the runners around to the plate (397 runs scored, good for 7th in the AL, but only 17 runs away from third place).

Biggest Disappointment: The entire NL West. What was supposed to be the most exciting and competitive division has turned into a contest to see who can keep their head above water the longest. The Diamondbacks, who cannot seem to get all their parts working together at once, are leading the division despite being one game under .500. Does anyone else remember the season previews? Everyone was gushing, "The D-Backs are awesome this year, the Padres are going to contend this year, the Rockies are coming off a great postseason and their confidence is high, and even the Dodgers are improved enough to contend this year." (Everyone knew the Giants were going to stink this year.) Instead, we get a division that:

• Has been outscored by its opponents to the tune of 197 runs


• Has a winning percentage of .438


• The lowly Giants, who would be last in any division not occupied by the Nationals or Mariners, are in THIRD PLACE


• Have a team that has gone 15-28 since May 17th in first place

Ugly, ugly, ugly.

Don't just take my word for it, though. Let's get an outside opinion on this.

How would you describe the NL West this year, Chuck?



"These knuckleheads are turrible."

I rest my case.

Predicted Playoff Probability

Here's how my picks are doing as far as current probability of making the playoffs, as well as a quick blurb as to what these teams need to do to push their chances of making the playoffs even higher (projections courtesy sportsclubstats.com):

Red Sox 50.1% - the Sawx could use another starting pitcher, but then again, who couldn't? Right now, their only real barrier lies in the same division as them: the Rays. I think the Red Sox will be fine as either the East division champions or the Wild Card entry into the postseason.
Tigers 10.4% - low-yield tactical nukes over the cities of Cleveland and Chicago would probably be a good start. Realistically, the Tiggers would have to play .667 ball over the rest of the season - winning 2 of every 3 games - to have a decent shot, but even if they do that, they still finish the season 88-74. Sorry Detroit, but this isn't a year where a team like the 2006 Cardinals are going to shock the world.
Angels 78.0% - could use another bat in the lineup right now, or maybe a starting pitcher. Right now the Angels are doing all the right things, including winning the close games. Something to increase the run differential would be a big help, so the Halos aren't relying on luck as often.
Phillies 51.5% - pitching. Myers just got sent down to AAA, and the rotation can't rest on Hamels and Moyer alone. This would be a good team to make a run at C.C. Sabathia.
Cubs 77.8% - avoid getting nuked by the Tigers. They could use a lefty power bat in the lineup to really put themselves over the top.
Diamondbacks 49.4% - Where to start? The Snakes have an average lineup without any defined "power" hitters (Reynolds, Young, and Upton are too streaky). The lineup can't support the best starting rotation in the league offensively or defensively, and the bullpen isn't doing themselves any favors, either. The Snakes need a power bat from either side of the plate to lock up a division that is begging to be ran away with. Good candidates would be Lance Berkman (not going anywhere), Mark Teixeira (doesn't want to go anywhere), or Matt Holliday (hmm...).

Let's take a moment to compare my predictions with those of the "experts" at ESPN (again, apologies for my attempts at tables breaking 411mania):

• Buster Olney: NYY, CLE, SEA, ATL, CHC, COL.


• Jayson Stark: BOS, DET, SEA, ATL, CHC, COL


• Tim Kurkjian: BOS, CLE, LAA, NYN, CHC, LAD


• Rob Neyer: NYY, CLE, LAA, NYN, CHC, LAD

Sean McAdam is currently in the running for having the most picks correct with 4: LAA, PHI, CHC, and AZD. Not bad, sir.

The obvious conclusion is that no one has been able to predict the Rays surge in the AL East, and no one could have foreseen the utter horribleness that is the NL West. Have I mentioned yet in this article that the NL West is bad? Just checking. There really hasn't been a division this bad in baseball since... well... the 2005 NL West. Just sayin'.

THE GRAND FINALE (including something for our friends up in the Great White North)

In keeping with the holiday, I would like to close out today with some appropriately-themed news items:

Special MLB caps to aid charity
As part of an initiative to help the "Welcome Back Veterans" charity, teams on the Independence Day weekend, as well as September 11, will be wearing specially designed "star-spangled" caps. A portion of sales of these caps will benefit the charity, as well as provide various tertiary benefits, like showing off MLB's patriotism and such. Of course, the Cubs and Giants started wearing their caps on the 2nd, because their game was being broadcast worldwide to the Navy, and the Jays wore their special caps on Tuesday to celebrate Canada Day, which is OK... I mean, what's a nice promotion without a tad going overboard? Nothing, I tell you.

A couple of notes on this: I really, really, really hope that MLB will still permit the Mets to wear NYC first responder caps on September 11, and wear the flag caps either on the 10th or the 12th. The Mets have established a nice tradition over the past few years, and I think this tradition is more important than the charity work, to be honest with you. MLB has already shown flexibility over when the caps can be worn, so stretching it out one day in September isn't going to harm anybody, especially since people associate 9/11 more with NYFD/NYPD than soldiers. Let the first responders continue to have their remembrance.

And secondly, why aren't the Jays scheduled at home for Canada Day? They had to wear their caps in Seattle, which is kind of like Canada, because it's so close... I guess. Back in the day when the Expos were around, they would usually have a nice interleague exhibition on Canada Day. It was a nice bone to throw the fans from north of the border. Now, for the second year in a row, the Jays are on the road, and the fans are left out in the cold. I'm sure that making a schedule is hard, hard work, and this year's schedule has a lot of quirks (like 4-game weekend series and 2-game short weekday series), but really, they couldn't maneuver something? That's a crying shame, and should be addressed next year.

From the archives
If you would permit me to indulge myself a little... the following is an article that I wrote 5 years ago for the now-defunct dailyblastoff.com under the nom de clavier Alex Hamilton. Don't worry - I'm not planning on auditioning for a column at 411 Politics, honest. I just thought that it would be appropriate to share this with a wider audience.

"The Fourth of July"
It's the Fourth of July, and millions of Americans are getting together to celebrate a long-standing American tradition: namely, getting abysmally wasted on booze by early afternoon, then blowing stuff up in remembrance of... wait, what is it exactly?

While this year's observance of watching the City of Tucson set fire to "A" mountain has been dampened by the recent fires in that area, I would like to remind Americans and people who would be Americans just what exactly this holiday is about. What America is about.

America is not the flag, it's not George W. Bush (or whoever is in office at any given time), it's not military might, it's not freedom of speech, it's not capitalism, and it's not the pastoral setting of small towns in the
Heartland. It's all of this -- and more.

What America stands for is a set of ideals that the country was founded upon. America is the memory of our God, our religion, our freedom, our peace, and our families.

Our God -- whether that be the Man Upstairs, whatever the talking heads on TV are saying these days, or NCAA basketball, we live in a country where it is our right to worship *what* we want, and to respect the decisions of other people to worship what *they* want, as well.

Our Religion -- If our God is *what* we worship, then our religion is *how* we worship. Millions of people believe in the same things, but we go about it a different way. That's OK, it's called individualism, and if we were a society of people that all came from the same cookie-cutter, I would be bored out of my mind.

Our Freedom -- Freedom from tyranny (1776). Freedom from oppression (1965). Freedom to stand up for what's right, say, "Hey, that's wrong, what you're doing there," and go out and do something about it (1776, 1914, 1989, 2003). Our freedoms to uphold the laws of the land, or to disagree with them in a civilized, orderly fashion. I read an article today where the commentator said "America was founded on dissent." He's right, but tell that to the people who think being founded on dissent gives them the right to go blow things up, shoot people as protest, or shut down an entire city with disorderly behavior.

Our Peace -- Watching the war live via satellite may be the greatest thing to happen to technology since the electric razor, but we are a peace-loving people. We don't like war, but we know that sometimes it is necessary in order to show people what's right, and where we stand.

Our Family -- Only the most important unit of civilization ever. If your family isn't in your Top Three priority list, along with your God and your country, you aren't worthy to have one, and you better fix that problem right away.

America is all of these things. We are greater than the sum of all our parts. When we remember these ideals, we are truly the greatest country in the world.

So this Fourth of July, let's remember who we are and what we stand for, and let's celebrate our American heritage by recommitting ourselves to these ideals so we can make this country a better place.

Then let's light off some fireworks. I like watching stuff blow up.

---
Same time next week, readers. -A.J.