MLB Fastball 07.11.08: NL Central Race Hits Trade Market

Posted by Neil Borenstein on 07.11.2008

The race for the top spot in the National League Central has hit the trade market, with the Milwaukee Brewers landing C.C. Sabathia and the Chicago Cubs taking a chance on the often-injured, yet dazzling when healthy Rich Harden. In this edition of MLB Fastball, Neil Borenstein takes a look at the risks associated with these moves, as well as the Mariners cutting ties with Richie Sexson after three and a half years.

Battle For NL Central Hits The Trade MarketBrewers, Cubs Deal For Starting Pitching

Photo Credits: Yahoo! Sports/AP PhotoC.C. Sabathia and Rich Harden were traded right into the NL Central playoff race.

The battle for the National League Central isn't taking place solely on the field. In a two-day span, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs hit the trade market to increase their chances of winning the division crown. On July 7, Milwaukee acquired the hottest starting pitcher rumored to be on the block, C.C. Sabathia, while the Cubs countered by dealing for Rich Harden from the Oakland Athletics just one day later.

In their pushes toward the much yearned for World Series title, both the Brewers and Cubs took different, yet very significant, risks. Sabathia remains a free agent eligible player at the end of the season and can very well step away for the highest offer, which I anticipate won't come out of Milwaukee. The Cubs, on the other hand, have Harden under contract for at least one more season. If he remains healthy, that's definite upside to the trade. That is, however, a big if.

To acquire Sabathia, the Brewers had to offer a nice package of youngsters that is headlined by the team's top prospect, outfielder Matt LaPorta. Also included were minor league pitchers Zach Jackson and Rob Bryson, as well as a player to be named later that The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel believes will be either outfield prospect Michael Brantley or third base prospect Taylor Green. The Brewers, who have a "win-now" philosophy based on this trade, aren't necessarily worried about the future. However, if they lose these prospects and Sabathia at the end of the season, and aren't the 2008 World Series Champions, this deal will definitely sting the organization. It's going to hurt even worse if the Brewers don't even make the playoffs, which remains a possibility despite currently occupying the NL Wild Card spot. And just to throw another wrench into this whole thing, let's not forget that Ben Sheets can become a free agent at the end of the season, as well. So, that's potentially double-trouble for the Brewers during the offseason.

In Chicago, the Cubs' biggest concern with their newest addition needs to be his health. While typically not a fan of Billy Beanes' absolutely ludicrous, yet widely glorified, philosophy of dealing the team's best players for a pile of prospects that will inevitably be traded two or three years later once they reach their potential, I can see why the A's would want to rid themselves of Harden. Harden is an injury-risk extraordinaire. Outlined in Jeff Passan's latest column on Yahoo! Sports, here is a breakdown of Harden's injuries while a pro in the MLB:

2005
Oblique – May 14 to June 20
Strained lat – August 20 to September 24
2006
Muscle strain in back – April 27 to June 3
Sprained elbow ligament – June 5 to September 20
2007
Strained shoulder – April 16 to June 20
Strained shoulder – July 8 to end of the season
2008
Strained shoulder – April 3 to May 10
(dates indicate time on the disabled list)

To say the least, it's surprising that Harden has suited up for 13 starts this year, equivalent to the amount of starts he had combined between the 2006 and 2007 seasons. After dealing with several injury-riddled stars over the years, such as Mark Prior and Kerry Wood (before this season), one would have to wonder why general manager Jim Hendry would want to enter this territory again.

Well, outside of it being a reactionary move to what the Brewers pulled off one day prior, Harden does rank as one of the league's best when he's healthy enough to toe the mound. He's a hard thrower and strikeout machine. And in his 13 starts this year, Harden has shown that as the league leader in strikeouts per nine innings (10.75). A 5-1 record and 2.34 ERA also accompany Harden to Chicago.

Hendry was smart enough to realize that in this high-risk, high-reward deal, he needed an insurance pitcher just in case Harden wasn't able to pull through injury-free for the rest of the season. Though not the same caliber pitcher Harden is, the A's included Chad Gaudin in the trade. Gaudin will go to the bullpen initially, but can be moved to the rotation if an injury arises. In either situation, Gaudin is a terrific arm to have on the team.

Going back to Oakland was a package of four players, led by starting pitcher Sean Gallagher, who is scheduled to take the mound against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim tonight in his first start as an Athletic. Also included were outfielder Matt Murton, who hit .297 with 13 home runs in 2006 but hasn't solidified himself as a consistent MLBer since and second baseman Eric Patterson, who was batting .237 with the Cubs this year as a constant call up-send down between the majors and minors. Both players will start their careers with Oakland in Triple-A Sacramento. Single-A catcher Josh Donaldson was also a member of this deal heading to the Athletics.

In both of these trades, general managers took some risks. Milwaukee is hoping to either go all the way this year and/or get Sabathia inked to a long-term deal in order to avoid the trade being a bust – both lofty goals. The Cubs just want Harden to stay healthy, add to an already decent rotation and help the team win its first World Series in 100 years. Also, some pretty lofty goals.

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Richie Sexson

Released by Mariners after three and a half seasons

The Seattle Mariners entered the season with some pretty high expectations. They had a decent lineup once again headlined by Ichiro Suzuki and greatly improved their pitching after acquiring starter Erik Bedard from the Baltimore Orioles. While the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim were still the favorites in the American League West, Seattle appeared to have a strong shot at making life difficult for them, and even take a stab at the AL Wild Card.

Ninety-two games are in the books and the Mariners are tied with the San Diego Padres for second-to-last place in the entire league, Bedard replaces Felix Hernandez on the disabled list and first baseman Richie Sexson was released after three and half rather disappointing seasons. Apparently, things didn't go according to plan.

At this point, any hopes the Mariners had of making the playoffs are pretty much out the window. With how competitive the top teams in the American League are, even an unlikely good stretch by Seattle won't make much of a difference. So, these moves are somewhat irrelevant.

Getting rid of Sexson, however, is a great move for the future of this ball club. A free agent signee prior to the 2005 campaign, Sexson has really been a mixed bag for the Mariners. Though he's mostly been a disappointment, Sexson had put up good power numbers in previous seasons. He nailed over 30 home runs and 100 RBIs in each of his first two years with the Mariners. But last season, he missed 41 games and posted only 21 home runs and 63 RBIs. Even more damning is the fact that he hit a paltry .205 at the plate – the worst mark of his career. Instead of rebounding, Sexson has been much the same this year, batting .218 with 11 home runs and 30 RBIs through 74 games.

Seattle decided it was time to cut him loose after giving him plenty of time to get his game together and eventually having to bench him. It's clear that he's going to continue to struggle at the plate, which is less tolerable when he's not even putting up the power numbers like he was just a couple of years ago. In his place, the Mariners will likely play recent acquisition Craig Wilson, who was dealt for from the Pittsburgh Pirates on Thursday in exchange for a player to be named. There's nothing to say Wilson is going to be a much better option. But he's probably just a short-term replacement for the remainder of the season. And hey, he can't do much worse than Sexson, can he?

As for Bedard, he was placed on the DL because of shoulder stiffness. He wasn't expected to pitch again before the All Star break anyway, so this gives the Mariners some room on the roster. He should make his first scheduled start after the break, though, so this probably isn't anything too serious.

Photo Credit: Richie Sexson - Yahoo! Sports/AP Photo

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Feedback from July 5th edition of MLB Fastball:

There is no way in hell that the Angels would ever trade Brandon Wood for AJ Burnett.

- TM

Agreed. But I think I actually mentioned that deal likely wasn't going to happen in the column. The Angels would have to be absolutely nuts to make that trade. Not just because of Wood's potential, but because the Angels have enough starting pitching as it is.

Even if Burnett is the fourth-best starter, which isn't entirely accurate, trading him for a shortstop creates a hole in the starting rotation, which you mention but don't fully address. Burnett may indeed be traded for prospects, but not solely for a shortstop. The Jays could opt to keep all of Eckstein, McDonald, and Scutaro and really be no worse off at the position than if they trade for a question mark.

[also …]

One other thing I forgot to mention; for the Jays to have any hope of improving beyond this season, they need to change General Managers. J.P. Ricciardi has done an embarrassing job for 6-7 years now and there is no longer a way to conceal it. For a team that was supposed to contend, especially if the Red Sox OR Yankees faltered, being in last place is inexcusable on every level.

- RDog

I agree that Burnett for a shortstop alone, Major Leaguer equal to his value or prospect, doesn't necessarily place the Blue Jays in a better spot than they're in now with Eckstein, McDonald and Scutaro. And I'm sure unless some team was dumb enough to trade a superstar in return for Burnett, the Blue Jays would get something else in return. Shortstop would still probably be the centerpiece of the trade, though.

And I also agree that Ricciardi's time in Toronto should soon be up. I don't think he's been a horrible general manager by any means, but he's not the guy that's going to get this team to the next level. And depending on where they fall at the end of the season, the Blue Jays might be in store for a bit of a front office shakeup at the GM spot.

Thanks for the feedback guys and everybody keep it coming!

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Until next time!

~ Neil Borenstein