MLB Fastball 08.08.08: Extensions For Arizona’s One-Two Punch
Posted by Neil Borenstein on 08.08.2008
The Arizona Diamondbacks have one of the strongest combinations at the frontend of their starting rotation in the entire MLB. Keeping Brandon Webb and Dan Haren together long-term has to be a top priority. While a big step was taken Tuesday by agreeing to a four-year extension with their No. 2 man, negotiating a deal with their ace hasn’t been as easy. Neil Borenstein discusses in the latest edition of MLB Fastball.
Extensions For Starting Rotation's One-Two Punch
Haren Agrees To Four More Years, Talks With Webb ‘Tabled'
Dan Haren Signed a four-year extension with the Diamondbacks
A fairly large reason why the Arizona Diamondbacks sit first in the National League West is the one-two punch at the forefront of their starting rotation. Righties Brandon Webb and Dan Haren have 28 total wins this year through 47 combined starts, owning ERAs under three and strikeout totals over 130 in the process. Production like that makes them one of, if not the, strongest starting combinations in all of Major League Baseball.
Keeping them together long-term should be a top priority for general manager Josh Byrnes. Webb, 29, and Haren, who turns 28 next month, are in the prime of their careers and have many years left in the tank of performing at the level we've seen this season. Keeping them in Diamondbacks uniforms is a necessary goal.
Byrnes accomplished half of that objective by agreeing to a four-year extension with Haren. Attempts to ink Webb to a long-term extension, however, were tabled in June and unlikely to pick back up until the offseason, at earliest.
Haren's new deal will keep him in Arizona until at least the 2012 season. His extension calls for a total of $44.75 million with yearly salaries of $7.5 million next season, $8.5 million in 2010 and $12.75 million in both 2011 and 2012. There is a club option for $12 million, or a $3.5 million buyout if the Diamondbacks choose not to pick it up, for a potential total of $56.75 million over five years.
This extension could be viewed as premature considering Haren still had two years remaining on his current contract that came along with him when acquired from the Oakland Athletics over the offseason. But the deal only ran through 2010 and that year was a club option. The new contract keeps Haren around for three more years. At a rate of $11.19-11.35 million on average per season, it's a steal and complete no-brainer for Arizona to get their No. 2 starter locked up for what will be the best years of his career.
Webb, on the other hand, is still playing on a deal that expires next season with a club option in 2010. According to The East Valley Tribune, however, an extension had previously been negotiated worth $54 million through 2014.
Brandon Webb Tabled a $54 million extension through 2014 in June
"Smaller issues" that weren't money and terms of the deal killed off talks, though, and it was tabled in June. Now, in-season negotiating won't take place and talks probably aren't going to be picked up any time before the season is over.
On Webb's current deal, the team ace earns $5.5 million next season and $9.5 million in 2010 if the Diamondbacks elect to exercise their option. Thanks to finishing within the top five in Cy Young voting in each of the last two seasons, he has already tacked on $1 million to that option year salary for a total of $10.5 million. If he does it again this year, that total increases again to $11 million, which is still a damn good price the 2006 NL Cy Young Award winner.
The deal tabled in June also sounds tremendous. If the extension would have kicked in starting next season, Webb would have earned an average of $9 million per season. Had his $5.5 million salary remained for next season and this new deal started in 2010, it would have been worth $10.8 on average per season. Holding onto a pitcher the caliber of Webb until he's 35 at either price would have been brilliant on the part of Byrnes.
Now, Byrnes appears to be a bit of a dud for allowing such a tremendous deal to die back in June. He should have done everything in his power to make sure that contract was signed without any other possible "smaller issues" getting in the way. All that did was open up the possibility for bigger issues next time Webb and the D-Backs hit the negotiating table, such as more money and/or a greater number of years.
The good news in this is that I believe Byrnes will be able to use Haren's extension as a model for what Webb should earn when talks are picked back up. Webb has more wins than Haren this year (16 to 12), but his ERA (2.93 to 2.75) and strikeout total (134 to 142) are just a tad off the mark from Haren's. In other words, they've been relatively close this year in value to the Diamondbacks. And even if Webb earns more money for scoring more victories and being with Arizona longer, Byrnes can make a case that he shouldn't get altogether that much more than what Haren is set to receive on his extension. Perhaps an average of $12 million a year, which would pay him $72 million on a six-year deal through 2014, would be within reasonable range. Though pricier than the deal that died back in June, Webb is still a steal at $12 million per season based on the current market in the MLB.
I'm not sure if Webb will buy that method and may recognize his true value far exceeds anything remotely close to Haren's extension and the one that was tabled in June. It's definitely worth a shot, though. Byrnes needs to make sure Webb isn't able to get close to free agency, where'd he instantly get offers over $18 million and potentially price himself out of range for what Arizona would be willing to pay.
The team may now have to come to grips, though, with stretching a bit in their offer. A breakup of Webb and Haren at the front end of the rotation gives Arizona a great advantage in the NL West. And though the Diamondbacks can prevent that from happening for the next two years on Webb's current contract, it would still serve them to hit this thing off now and have Webb around for at least as long as Haren.
Photos courtesy of Yahoo! Sports
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Good analysis. I think the Webb extension gives Josh Byrnes an opportunity to make good on the flop Eric Byrnes deal that was signed last summer: namely, inking a franchise player to a decent deal. While Webb can certainly provide value to any team, he's been a Diamondback his entire career, and every effort should be made to keep it that way.
I think dropping negotiations in June hurt Webb more than the front office, though. While dropping the deal could have meant more money for Webb, I think it will get him on equal footing with Haren -- although by the end of the season it may be Haren that proves to be more valuable. In any case, Webb-Haren are the next Schilling-Johnson for the D-Backs and should be treated as such.
Posted By: A.J. Stevens (Registered) on August 08, 2008 at 03:02 PM
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