Musings from the Rundown 10.01.08: Playoff Predictions!

Posted by A.J. Stevens on 10.01.2008

411mania's Frank Fedele and A.J.Stevens join forces to bring you the freshest Division Series predictions. You're just a click away, what are you waiting for?

Hello 411maniacs! The MLB reporters here have decided to join forces and give you an extensive preview of the upcoming division series in baseball. I'm joined today by "Fearless" Frank Fedele of Musings from the Bleachers, who was kind enough to contribute some tasty analysis. Let's get right to it!

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Los Angeles Angels (1) vs. Boston Red Sox (4)

Frank Fedele: The defending champ Boston Red Sox must go the Wild Card route this year with a flight out west to Anaheim to play the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. The Angels clinched early in the season and have been able to rest their starters as well as get their rotation where they want it. The Red Sox were chasing the Tampa Bay Rays for the Eastern division and come into this series with some injury questions.

The biggest question for the Red Sox is Josh Beckett. He has already been pushed back to game three, which means he will only pitch one game in this series. With him at the front end of their staff, the Red Sox had the pitching advantage with Beckett, Matsuzaka and Lester as the top three over Ervin Santana, Lackey and Saunders. With Beckett moving to the third game, I give the Angels a slight advantage in the first two pitching matchups.

The bullpens also feature two of the best closers in the league with Francisco Rodriguez for the Angels and Jonathan Papelbon for the Red Sox. Rodriquez has set the save record this year and Papelbon anchors a strong Boston pen. The Red Sox have a slight edge in the pen, even with Rodriguez at the back end of the Angels pen.

The lineup, if healthy, is where the Red Sox have the advantage. The issue is that they may not be. There are questions whether J.D. Drew and Mike Lowell will be available for the series and without them, the Red Sox have some holes in their lineup. Ortiz and Youklis will see less good pitches to hit without Drew and Lowell behind them. The Angels have Mark Teixeira and Vladimir Guerrero anchoring their lineup and all the pieces seem healthy. I would give the Angels a very slight advantage here due to injury concerns in Boston.

I think this should be the best series of the four this offseason. I think the Angels, with the home field advantage and having to only face Beckett once, hold a slight advantage and pick them in five games.

A.J. Stevens:
Head-to-Head: Angels 8-1 Boston
Player to Watch (Angels): Torii Hunter. He gained a lot of postseason experience with the Twins, and he's coming off a career year in 2007. There has been talk this year that the Angels threw a lot of money at another declining player: will he step up and silence the naysayers?
Player to Watch (Red Sox): Jason Bay. He has an OPS+ of 129 since coming over from Pittsburgh, and is doing quite well, thank you very much. While Manny's production in LA has meant that nobody would have even come close to being a comparable replacement, Bay is continuing to come into his own and has been the right player to fill the void in the Sox production while they dealt with injuries.
Prediction: Jeez - LAAA has completely owned the Sawx. Boston will be without ace Josh Beckett for the first game, throwing their rotation off -- but when an 18-3 guy (Daisuke Matsuzaka) isn't your ace, I'd say you've got a deep rotation. The Angels have the newly minted record holder for meaningless stats in a season to close out games. This series will come down to pitching, and the Angels have the better bullpen, assuming Hideki Okajima doesn't suddenly return to 2007 form. Angels in 4.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. OMGZ A MYSTERY OPPONENT

[Ed. Note: This article was written before the awesome Sox-Twins playoff game on Tuesday night, which the White Sox won to advance to the ALDS.]

FF: The Rays won the East this year and they don't know who is coming down to Tropicana field for their series yet. The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox were not able to win the race in 162 games. They will be playing on Tuesday night with the winner hoping on a plane and flying to Tampa.

The Twins and the White Sox are two totally different teams, with the Twins using their speed and ability to play small ball to win while the White Sox look to drive each pitch out of the yard. Both teams will have pitching issues in this series as they have had to battle down to wire with each other. The bullpens on both sides are solid and should be able to bridge to the end of the game if the starters falter early. The Twins lineup is similar to the Rays with speed at the top and power in the middle with Justin Morneau. The White Sox have power up and down the lineup with each player a threat to drive one out.

The Rays are a young team, but that young talent finally came together this season. They have a number of great young pitchers and hitters and should be a trouble for whichever team comes out of the Central. The Rays pitching staff is built around power arms and should boast three solid starters for the series. The bullpen has rallied around Troy Percival and has become a strength this year, unlike last when they were a liability. The team's young hitters provide equal helpings of speed and power with Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria the big bats in the middle of the lineup. If the Rays can overcome the playoff jitters, they should beat whichever team gets off that plane.

AJS:
Head-to-Head: Tampa Bay 6-4 Chicago
Player to Watch (Rays): Evan Longoria. This is a complete toss-up, because the Rays this year haven't been about the individual efforts, they've been all about team unity. Still, they have someone on their team who has been touted as "the next A-Rod." I'll watch that guy.
Player to Watch (Chicago): Alexei Ramirez. This dude is probably the only person cleared from PED suspicion on looks alone. Look for this Cuban import to continue to spark his team when they need it most.
Prediction: Even with the White Sox' momentum coming into the series, Tampa Bay is looking unstoppable right now. Rays in 4.


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (1) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (3)

FF: The Cubs clinched their division early and were able to give needed rest to some of their regulars and set their pitching the way they wanted. The only issue for the Cubs is some key pieces may not be healthy even with the rest. Mark DeRosa and Geovany Soto both sat out a number of games down the stretch to help heal minor injuries. The hope is both will play, but you wonder if it will affect their hitting. Soto is especially worrisome due to his hand injury. The other possible issue with the Cubs is game two starter Carlos Zambrano. He has been inconsistent down the stretch, alternating great games ( a no hitter among them) and lemons. Which Zambrano will the Cubs get? This could determine who wins the series.

The Dodgers have outstanding pitching and hope that it will help lead them past the Cubs. The Dodgers lineup is highlighted by Manny Ramirez. Manny has gone crazy since in Los Angeles and almost hit .400 since his move to the National League. Will the rest of the lineup be up to the task though? That will be the big question in Los Angeles.

This is a hard series to call. I expect it to go five games and expect the Cubs to come out on top.

AJS:
Head-to-Head: Cubs 5-2 Dodgers
Player to Watch (Dodgers): Manny Ramirez. I think the networks are salivating at the prospect of this: baseball's biggest offensive power since the trade deadline versus a team that is fighting to win the World Series for the first time in 100 years? Yeah, as much as I wish ill will on the Dodgers, I'm so there.
Player to Watch (Cubs): Ted Lilly. Just so I can use this picture again:

Prediction: The Cubs and Dodgers haven't played each other since the beginning of June, and both were arguably very different teams back then. The Cubs have added some pitching, and the Dodgers have added some offense. Will Zambrano's arm hold out? How well will Wrigley contain the Dodger offense? Who will win the battle of the ex-Yankees managers? Cubs in 5.

Philadelphia Phillies (2) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (4)

FF: Both these teams were helped by the Mets collapsing down the stretch. The Phillies got the division in the East and Milwaukee won the Wild Card. The Brewers will have a patchwork pitching staff for this series, with Sabathia hopefully coming back for Game two so he can pitch two games in the series. The Brewers lineup is also worrisome, as they really haven't hit well down the stretch except for an occasional homer. Those homers came at crucial times, but you do wonder when that stops. The Phillies have the better lineup with Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins and rotation with Cole Hamels and Jamie Moyer both pitching well. This should be a short series, with the Phillies winning in four.

AJS:
Head-to-Head: Philadelphia 5-1 Milwaukee
Player to Watch (Brewers): CC Sabathia. He'll be starting Game 2 of the NLDS on three days rest -- again. Will a person that does not play every day be able to carry their team in the playoffs? He's also a relatively unknown quantity for Philadelphia: they haven't faced him since June 20, 2007.
Player to Watch (Phillies): Chase Utley. He's in the top 10 of almost every offense category in the NL (11th in RBI), and he will continue to be a valuable asset to the Phightins as they enter the 2008 postseason.
Prediction: Phillies in 5.

This wraps up our special just-in-time coverage of the MLB Division Series. Many thanks to Fabulous Frank Fedele for agreeing to do this with me, and special thanks to you, our readers, without whom there would be no 411mania. Look for us again soon with our picks for the Championship Series and beyond!