The Weekly MLB Rundown 10.10.08: And Then There Were Four...

Posted by A.J. Stevens on 10.10.2008

Lots of news this week as we analyze the Division Series that were. Plus, a comments contest to win your own guest slot at the Rundown! Check it out inside!



LEADING OFF - MEA CULPA

Commenter jasonel was right: the Brewers played the Cardinals in 1982, not the Phillies. I got my years mixed up, whoops! Thanks for calling me out on that.

MEMORIES OF TIMES PAST

The division series, they are over. Let us reflect a bit on them, yes? Sweet. I'm going to review the predictions I made, the players I said to watch, and then name the biggest contributors (and non-contributors) from a batting and a pitching perspective from each team. These "awards" are based on numbers found at fangraphs.com, which looks at each plate appearance objectively, determines its potential effect on the outcome of the game, and awards it a percentage based on how much, in either direction, it moved the game win probability to 100%. Variables considered are score, runners on base, outs, and result.

SERIES 1: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim vs. Boston Red Sox of Boston
AJ said: Angels in 4.
What happened: Red Sox in 4, featuring the Angels' first postseason win over the BoSox in 22 years.
AJ's players to watch: Torii Hunter and Jason Bay.
How they did: Hunter did a passable job in the playoffs, with his worst contributions coming in the game that the Angels won, Game 3. He left 6 Angels on base, and was tagged out trying to stretch a single into a double in the top of the 9th inning. While replays showed that he could have conceivably avoided the tag, there was no way, unless the fielder completely dropped the ball, that he was going to get the benefit of the doubt when the ball beat him to the bag by that much.

Speaking of the failed double, let's look at the outfielder who threw that ball: Jason Bay performed more than adequately in every game except Game 3, where he arguably did the worst job among the Red Sox hitters that night. Still, here's his line for the series: 17 AB, 3 R, 7 H, 5 RBI, 2 BB, 4 SO, 7 LOB, 2 HR, including scoring the winning run off of a Jed Lowrie single. I think if Bay keeps playing like he has been, Boston is going to have a #44 nicknamed "Mr. October" to compete with the one in New York. 4 games, .412/.474/.882? Yeah, I'll take that. Photo credit: AP

BoSox Batting MVP: Jacoby Ellsbury, cumulative WPA of +32.1%. Key moments: Game 1 leadoff double, RBI Single in 9th; Game 3 3 RBI "single" with 2 out in the 2nd inning.
BoSox Batting LVP: Dustin Pedroia, cumulative WPA of -46.8%. "Key" moments: Game 2 groundout with 2 outs and bases loaded in 6th inning;Game 3 0-5 with 4 LOB.
BoSox Pitching MVP: Jon Lester, +75.3%. 14 IP, 10 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 11 K, 0 HR.
BoSox Pitching LVP: Javy Lopez, -28.1%. 1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 0 HR. Unfortunately, that run was the go-ahead run for the Angels in Game 3.

Angels Batting MVP: Big Daddy Vladdy (Vlad Guerrero), +31.1%. Key moments: Game 2, when he got a hit every time he came to the plate with a runner on. Game 3: 2 BB, 2 H, 1 2B, most of this with runners on base as well.
Angels Batting LVP: Howie Kendrick -64.2%. "Key" moments: Game 1: Bases-loaded, 2-out fielder's choice in 1st inning. 2-out fielder's choice in 8th inning. K in 6th inning. 2-out groundout in 3rd inning with runners on 1st and 2nd. Game 2: Bases-loaded K with 1 out in the 7th inning. Game 4: 2nd inning K with 2 outs and runners on 1st and 2nd.
Angels Pitching MVP: Jered Weaver, +36.8%. Game 3: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB (to David Ortiz, and you would do the same thing), 3 K.
Angels Pitching LVP: Ervin Santana, -28.4%. Game 2: 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR.

SERIES 2: Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
AJ said: Rays in 4.
What happened: Rays in 4. W00T!
AJ's players to watch: Evan Longoria (Rays) and Alexi Ramirez (ChiSox).
How they did: Longoria started off with the literal bang, hitting home runs in his first two playoff at-bats. He cooled off afterwards and wasn't nearly as productive for the remainder of the series, but the atmosphere generated among fans and teammates after his two bombs was palpable, even to this writer, who was forced to watch the game on MLB GameCast. Photo credit: AP

Ramirez didn't come up as well as Sox fans would have hoped, but a lot of that had to do with the situations he was in: he only had the opportunity to knock in 6 runs (not counting himself) throughout the whole series, and managed only 1 RBI in that situation, which came on a bases-loaded sacrifice fly in the 1st inning of Game 2.

ChiSox Batting MVP: DeWayne Wise, +34.4%. Key moments: Game 1 leadoff double, RBI Single in 9th; Game 3 3 RBI "single" with 2 out in the 2nd inning.
ChiSox Batting LVP: Orlando Cabrera, -34.8%. "Key" moments: going 2-16 with 0 RBI the entire series, including popping out in the 3rd innning of Game 1 with runners on 2nd and 3rd, and striking out with the bases loaded to end the 7th inning of Game 1, killing the Sox' last rally of that game.
ChiSox Pitching MVP: John Danks, +11.6%. 6.2 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 7 K, 1 HR.
ChiSox Pitching LVP: Javy Vazquez, -40.0% 4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 2 HR (both to Evan Longoria). You know, Javy Vazquez was a pretty decent pitcher once. I wish manager Ozzie Guillen would have treated him better, instead of labelling him "not a big-game pitcher" then sending him out to get shelled in Game 1. Think about it: if the Sox win Game 1, the momentum is on their side, and Tampa Bay might just be a fluke team after all. Instead, they come back from two deficits and wind up obliterating the Sox in the series.

Rays Batting MVP: Akinori Iwamura, +42.2%. Aki blew the doors off the joint in Games 1 and 2, and didn't contribute as much in Games 3 and 4. Key moments: Single, triple, and walk in Game 1. 2-R HR in Game 2.
Rays Batting LVP: Jason Bartlett -15.0%. "Key" moments: Game 2: GIDP in 2ht inning with runners on 1st and 2nd. Game 3: 0-3, 1 K, 2 LOB.
Rays Pitching MVP: J.P. Howell, +48.1%. 3 G, 4.1 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K. Clutch pitching in Game 2: comes in with runners on 1st and 2nd, no outs, 7th inning, 1-run lead, and gets Jim Thome, Alexei Ramirez, and A.J. Pierzynski in order, then follows it up with striking out the side in the 8th.
Rays Pitching LVP: Matt Garza, -23.5%. Game 3: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 4 K.

SERIES 3: Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
AJ said: Cubs in 5.
What happened: Dodgers in 3, much to the surprise of pretty much everybody on the planet.
AJ's players to watch: Manny Ramirez and Ted Lilly.
How they did: Regardless of what Tim McCarver thinks of him, Manny Ramirez can flat-out HIT. Here's his line for three games: 5-10, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 4 BB, 3 K, or .500/.643/1.100. That last number is NOT a typo. I mean, just, like, wow, man. Dodgers fans (and pretty much everyone else) expected a show, and boy, did he flat-out deliver.



Ted Lilly didn't throw his glove this year, unless it was in the dugout. Ted Lilly saw no playing time in the 2008 NLDS. So by "player to watch", I guess I meant, y'know, like, "Where's Waldo" or something. My bad. Photo credit: AP. Yes, that really is a photo of Ted Lilly.

Cubs Batting MVP: Daryle Ward, +3.4% Key moment: Knocking in Derrek Lee from 2nd in Game 3, 8th inning, 2 out.
Cubs Batting LVP: Alfonso Soriano, -20.4% "Key" moments: 0-5 Game 3, including flying out to right with 1 out and runners on 1st and 2nd in the 7th. Also 0-5 in Game 1. Made the final out in both games 1 and 3. What, you expected someone different?
Cubs Pitching MVP: Sean Marshall, +3.8% Game 1: 2.1 IP, 4K, 1 BB, 1 H, 1 HR, 1 ER; Game 3: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 2B.
Cubs Pitching LVP: Carlos Zambrano, -29.2% (Runner-up: Ryan Dempster, -25.2%) Game 2: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 7 R, 3 ER, 2 B, 7 K, 1 HR. Yes, lots of errors, but only 1 run scored on a play where there actually was an error. Russell Martin's big double came with 2 outs and could have been avoided, theoretically. I would give CZ more credit if the runs had scored with less than 2 out. As for Dempster, I've got 2 words for you: 3 walks, 1 grand slam.

Dodgers Batting MVP: James Loney, +55.7% Key moment: Game 1: 2-out GRAND SALAMI.
Dodgers Batting LVP: Matt Kemp, -14.2% "Key" moments: Nothing specific, but overall he had a series of consistently not contributing to his offense.
Dodgers Pitching MVP: Hiroki Kuroda, +23.7%. Game 3: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K.
Dodgers Pitching LVP: Takashi Saito, -0.4%. Game 2: 0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 18.00 ERA.

SERIES 4: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
AJ said: Phillies in 5.
What happened: Phillies in 4.
AJ's players to watch: CC Sabathia and Chase Utley.
How they did: Good gracious did CC suck or what? See below. Photo credit: AP



Chase Utley didn't have much of an NLDS, with his only real contribution one way or the other coming in the 3rd inning of Game 1, where he doubled in 2 runs and later scored -- one of his only 2 hits in the series. He'll have to pick it up against the Dodgers.

Brewers Batting MVP: J.J. Hardy, +18.8% Key moments: Game 2: Bases-loaded walk, double leading to run scored. Game 3: 1-3, 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB
Brewers Batting LVP: Corey Hart, -35.6% "Key" moments: Game 1: Game-ending K with runners on 2nd and 3rd. Game 2: Bases-loaded GIDP in the 1st.
Brewers Pitching MVP: Dave Bush, +22.7% 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, all in Game 3.
Brewers Pitching LVP: CC Sabathia, -35.2% 3.2 IP, 6 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 1 HR, 12.27 ERA. Looks like all of those starts on 3 days rest caught up to him. The Brewers, who were still foundering under interim last-ditch replacement manager Dale Sveum, finally found that their number had come up. With no team to help them back into the next round of the playoffs (even though Utley and Howard were trying their hardest to not contribute offensively), the Brew Crew folded, and the front office is going to have to do some serious soul-searching over the next few months.

Phillies Batting MVP: Shane Victorino, +46.4% Key moment: 1st career grand slam with 2 outs, 2nd inning, Game 2.
Phillies Batting LVP: Pedro Feliz, -22.1% "Key" moment: 9th-inning GIDP with 0 out in Game 3.
Phillies Pitching MVP: Cole Hamels, +39.2% Game 1: 8 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. He done did shut 'em down good.
Phillies Pitching LVP: Jamie Moyer, -6.0% Game 3: 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 4.50 ERA. This is by no means a bad performance, it's just the worst performance by a Phillies pitcher in the NLDS.

A LOOK AT THINGS TO COME

Two of these four teams will be in the World Series: Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies.

Let me give it to you straight: the Dodgers and the Rays are going to meet in the World Series. The Dodgers will have vanquished the Phillies in 6 games, and the Rays will have defeated the Red Sox in 5. When we meet this time next week, we'll break down how the ALCS and NLCS are going, and give our picks for the World Series.

Your assignment: leave me your picks for the ALCS, NLCS, and World Series in the comments, or shoot me an e-mail. The commentor who picks the series correctly will win a guest spot in the final Rundown of 2008. Be sure to include how long the series will go, as I will be using that as a potential tiebreaker.

See you next week at the Rundown! -AJS