The Weekly MLB Rundown 10.24.08: Penultimatum

Posted by A.J. Stevens on 10.24.2008

We're looking back at a nail-biting ALCS, and forward to the remaining games of what could be a very exciting World Series, ratings be damned. Join us inside for a little Rundown, won't you?



LEADING OFF

The World Series is underway, with Game 1 going to the Phillies in what looked like a tightly-contested game (3-2). However, Cole Hamels and his Phillies completely dominated Scott Kazmir and the Rays. Will this dominance continue, or will Tampa fall? Experts are predicting that this might be the most exciting Series since 2002, will it live up to the hype?

Let's take a look back at how the Rays got to the World Series...

B.J. Upton
My goodness, what a mammoth this kid has turned out to be in the postseason. In the ALCS, he had a cumulative Win Percentage Contribution of 63%. SIXTY-THREE PERCENT. He didn't do much in Games 6 or 7, but Games 2 and 5 belonged to him. Sure, you may say that if he had performed in either of the last two games, the Rays would have won earlier. I put it to you like this: if the Rays lose either Game 2 or Game 5, there is no Game 7. In a short series, any game won is another chance to rebound from a loss. There may be no "I" in team, but let's face it: this kid put his team on his back and carried them offensively. Here is a brief rundown of his performance:

Game 2: 1-4, 1 BB, 1 SF, 1 HR, 2 RBI. Sure, the other 3 AB's were strikeouts, but his 2-run contribution was key. First off, if he doesn't homer, there is no extra innings, as Boston would have won and Wheeler would have been even more of a goat than he was that game. (Seriously, dude had nothing. Nuh-THING.) Plus the game-winning sacrifice fly (set up by Navarro, Zobrist, and Iwamura walking) in the 11th was pretty important, too, seeing as how it WON THE GAME. Even though any ball hit to the outfield would have won, Upton was a TTO guy that game, and a hit to the OF wasn't guaranteed.

Game 5: 3-4, 1 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 4 RBI. Upton set the pace early by taking Matsuzaka deep in the 1st inning, and sending home two of the Rays' seven unanswered runs. Unfortunately, and through no fault of his, the Sox struck back with eight runs of their own in the final three innings to win the game 8-7.

David Price
Let me set the situation: You're a rookie, you've never had a save in the postseason before, and your manager is sending you to the mound in the bottom of the 8th inning of Game 7 with runners on 1st and 2nd, two outs, and a two-run lead to protect. Oh, by the way, J.D. Drew is at the plate, and he almost singlehandedly dismantled your bullpen in Game 5. How do you respond? By striking him out, then striking out two of the next four batters and inducing a weak groundout to second for the series-ending out, that's how. That, dear readers, is the definition of "intestinal fortitude" right there.

The Rays rode recycled closer Troy Percival to the postseason, but lost him to injury, and have been functioning on a "bullpen-by-committee" approach for the past eleven games. While Dan Wheeler has been the de facto closer, manager Joe Maddon has shown no fear in eschewing the traditional "closer must come in for the 9th" model to do something which is much more logical: bringing in your best reliever in the tightest situations. Sox manager Terry Francona showed the same skill in decision-making when he brought in Jonathan Papelbon to pitch the 7th and 8th innings in Game 5, a decision that turned the game - and almost the series - around.

Matt Garza
ALCS MVP. 2 clutch outings in the series, with his only mistake in Game 7 a first-inning changeup that Dustin Pedroia smacked into the left-field bleachers. While I don't agree with pitchers winning the MVP (see my NLCS Rundown for a better take on this), I'm also not going to argue this choice with any enthusiasm, either. I'm excited to see this kid take the ball in the World Series, because he is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

AND NOW FOR THE NEXT SEVEN SIX FIVE GAMES

Due to deadlines, it just so happens that Game 2 will be played between the time I submit this article and the time you see it on 411mania. Such is life. HEY FOX, SHOW THE GAMES EARLIER. THERE ARE KIDS ON THE EAST COAST WHO ARE GOING TO GROW UP NOT KNOWING WHAT BASEBALL IS BECAUSE GAME 1 ENDED AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. Sorry, I'm a little sensitive about this, in case you haven't noticed. Where I am, the game started at 5:30 PM, not unacceptable, but then again, and East Coast starting time of 8:30 is ridiculous. I mean, if I lived on the East Coast, and my kids go to bed at 8, my kids don't get to watch and enjoy baseball, you know what I'm saying? Terrible, terrible scheduling. And no wonder that the World Series is poorly-rated. They'll blame it on the fact that Boston or New York or Los Angeles isn't in the Series this year, and boo-hoo, small-market bad luck. Nevermind that Philly is the 5th-largest media market. Nevermind that FOX Sports is trying to milk as much advertising revenue as possible by having their Prime Time shows as well as their sports shows.

Whoops, I got completely off-topic. Let's try again.

AND NOW FOR THE NEXT FIVE GAMES

Game 3 sees the World Series travel to Philadelphia, and the Rays are going to once again find themselves in a position where exuberant home crowds completely overwhelm any noise produced by Tampa fans. I mean, seriously, it sounded like the fans were split 50-50 during Game 1. Philly fans are going to make much more noise than most other fans, even if their team is losing. These are the same fans who lustily booed Santa Claus, remember. Anyway, even though Brad Lidge gave the AL home-field advantage at the All-Star Game, that is now moot as the Rays will be forced to win at least once in Philly to have a chance to get the Series back to Tampa. (This is barring the Rays winning Games 2-5, which would render games 6 and 7 unnecessary.) Any advantage that home field would have gotten the Rays would have been of minimal benefit to the Rays, and is now completely moot.

The Phillies are depending on Evil Jamie Moyer staying home, and Good Jamie Moyer showing up to help claim his first World Series ring. Moyer, known for pitching to contact and using deception to fool hitters (modern-day terms for "junk-ball pitcher"), hasn't been very good so far in the postseason, despite being somewhere close to brilliant during the regular season. In a way, Cole Hamels is expected to beat Scott Kazmir twice: he's just that good. For the Rays, the keys will be beating the inconsistent Brett Myers and Moyer. I'm not sure why Moyer gets two starts this Series and Joe Blanton only gets one, but plans could change by Game 7, with Blanton getting run out to the mound on relatively normal rest if Moyer proves horribly ineffective in Game 3. Time will tell, but the Rays need to get to the Philadelphia starters to have a chance to win, because the bullpen has been unstoppable this year.

Scott Kazmir seemed to settle in nicely after the first inning, but in reality, the Phillies left a LOT of runners on base, and managed to get their first hitter on base 4 times last night - a dangerous handicap for the pitcher and defense. It will be up to the Rays to keep the Phillies off base and limit their chances of scoring.

Even though Game 1 is already in the books, I'm calling for the Rays to win Games 2, 3, and 4, and the Phillies to win in Game 5, with the Rays winning the Series in Tampa Bay in 6 games. You heard it here first. -AJS