Points in the Paint 07.08.07
Posted by Rob Bonnette on 07.08.2007
More draft recap plus free agency!!
Hey there everyone and welcome to a punctual (for a change) edition of Points in the Paint where we do our best to talk about the upcoming season for the entire period of July through October without resort to stupid tricks like showing photos of hot NBA cheerleaders. Of course, the guys who do that probably get way more hits than I do, so I guess I lose in the long run. But anyway, this week we have more draft, and some free agency talk.
Immediate impact
So how will the draft affect the upcoming season? Well, some teams definitely got better while others did nothing but spin their wheels. And while we won't know for a few years who really helped themselves, there are a few teams that made an addition to their roster that could pay immediate dividends.
Atlanta: Anything is possible in the East, and Atlanta just improved their lot by finally adding a appoint guard and upgrading the power forward spot. They may really want to consider trading some guys to alleviate any possible minutes crunch, I do like the way their roster has shaped up now. There is definitely a chance for them to move into the lower half of the East playoff bracket now that they have a possible answer at point guard to distribute the ball to Joe Johnson and all those forwards.
Charlotte: The Bobcats literally had no shooting guard last season, and now they have a very good one. Jason Richardson was a 20 point scorer until last year's injury plagued campaign. Now that he's healthy and on a team that has little competition for minutes at his spot (in Golden State there were Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis by season's end), he should ready to blossom again. Jared Dudley was a steal later on in the first round as well. If they re-sign Gerald Wallace, you can easily put them on the playoff contenders list.
Chicago: Joakim Noah next to Ben Wallace is more promising next year that a still learning Tyrus Thomas; they still have a low post scoring issue, but this should be enough to keep them from slipping back to the bottom half of the bracket.
New York: For the time being, I am loving the Zach Randolph trade. I know there are naysayers and people who think that the big winner out the deal will be Scores nightclub, but what harm is there in unloading Steve Francis horrible contract for a 26 year stud at power forward? And without having to give up David lee in the process? Excellent. Now if Zach ends in jail at the All-Star break, I'll gladly flip-flop and rip Isaiah again.
Washington: Nick Young is a potential upgrade over Deshawn Stevenson at the shooting guard position, at least offensively. On defense he's in the same class as his new backcourt mate Gilbert Arenas. And while you may be thinking that the last thing the Wizards needed was even more scoring, the fact is that outside of the big three they had no one who could consistently get any points. Young allows them a bit more lineup flexibility, and gives them one more guy for opposing defenses to sweat over. Along with guard Juan Carlos Navarro, who was just released from his commitment overseas, their roster has been boosted in a major way. Their playoff position should be solidified now.
Notice how all of those teams are from the East? The East will be wide open once again, and should be totally unpredictable as far who's getting what playoff spot. All five of these teams either improved their position or made a big push towards grabbing a spot.
Sowing the seeds of change
Some teams won't be doing any better in the standings next season based on what they did in the draft but did add the necessary elements for future success. Portland and Seattle have the foundations for their resurgence in place, and Memphis' addition of Mike Conley gets them just a little better chance for a another playoff berth soon. The only problem is that the West is pretty logjammed right now. Health permitting you can pencil in San Antonio, Dallas, Phoenix, Utah, Houston, and Denver. And you can put both Los Angeles teams, New Orleans, and Golden State in the mix for the last two spots. I have a hard time seeing Seattle, Portland, or Memphis jumping past three or four of those teams to claim a berth. Now in a few years, things will change. Several Western icons and contributors will be on the back stretch of their careers (Tim Duncan, Steve Nash, Allen Iverson and Marcus Camby to name a few), and several others could possibly be elsewhere (Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Carmelo Anthony are among them). Only Houston and Utah have rosters that will still be at their peaks in three years, so there will be room to move up then. But for right now, forget it.
Taking a step back
Some clubs didn't help themselves at all, either because they had no picks or they used their unwisely. Barring something major happening in free agency or an act of God, these teams are going to have trouble keeping up with the Joneses next season:
Cleveland: Enjoy that Finals appearance, Cavs fans, because that's the best memory you're going to have for a while. Considering that they got the easiest draw ever in the first two rounds (it's definitely reasonable to believe that a fully healthy Wizards or Nets team could have beaten them), and were swept in the Finals, you have to come to the conclusion that they have some holes in their roster. They need a better point guard situation than what they have now (an over the hill Eric Snow and a combination of mediocrity) if nothing else. But with no draft picks, they weren't able to address that. They have no cap room, so there's not much they can do in free agency, other than pay too much to re-sign Anderson Varejao. They were the second seed this season, but with the number of additions that many of their Eastern Conference brethren have made so far, a lot of those easy conference games aren't going to be so easy now. Status quo may still get them to the postseason, but don't be surprised if they end up with a lower seed and an earlier exit.
The Lakers: They drafted a point guard who won't be ready for big minutes immediately, a year after drafting a point guard who wasn't ready for big minutes immediately. Just a little redundant there, huh? They were the seventh seed this year, and are worse on paper than several teams that finished behind them (Golden State, New Orleans, Sacramento, the Clippers). And when you factor in Lamar Odom's obligatory absence during the season (four of his eight seasons included at least 18 missed games), it doesn't look good for the Lake Show. Now I've been saying that for the past two seasons and they've proven me wrong, so anything's possible. But I find it hard to believe they can keep up the smoke and mirror act for a third straight year.
Toronto: The Raptors surprising (to just about everyone except them) finish to last season is going to be a hard act to follow if they don't do something in free agency or make a trade of some kind. They capitalized on bad starts in New Jersey and Philadelphia, injuries in New York, and utter confusion in Boston to take the division title with a great stretch run. Now they're looking at a division where everyone accept the Sixers are almost guaranteed to be better than they were last season, along with the other improvements I mentioned to Eastern teams in other divisions. The overall road is going to be tougher, so it's not crazy to think that 47 wins will be a little harder to come by this season.
Let's get ready to overspend!!!
Free agency has begun, and the fun has already kicked into high gear. A few guys signed extensions to stay with their present teams; Vince Carter inked a four year extension for more than $60 million, and Luke Walton got a six year extension to stay with the Lakers. Both deals are fine with me. People have been pooh-poohing the Carter deal because of his disappearing act during the playoffs, but he's still an All-Star does enough for the Nets to warrant keeping him. I don't think he's worth paying a lot to come play somewhere else, but I'd keep him if I already had him. Walton is a decent player who plays very well off of Kobe Bryant, so it makes sense for him stay in L.A. The deal is for $5 million a year so he can be moved if the need ever arises. Rashard Lewis got a five year deal from the Orlando Magic for the maximum salary, which will be determined once the salary cap level is set for the upcoming season. Lewis is a big time scorer and a good rebounder for his position, but his actual impact on winning and losing is suspect to say the least. He's been the second banana in Seattle for the last several seasons, most of which have ended in the lottery. What's more telling than that is what happened the last time the Sonics made a serious playoff run two years ago. In the second round against the eventual champion Spurs the Sonics won two games before losing in six, but Lewis did not play in either game. Four losses with you, two wins without you? I know that's just one series, but to me that raises a red flag. I don't think you give someone like that a max deal.
Now all that being said, there is a silver lining to this deal. By giving Lewis a max deal, the Magic don't have enough cash to overpay my man Darko. There have been rumors (probably planted by his own people and boosted into the stratosphere by one Chad Ford) that he would possibly be getting a $50 to$60 million deal, which is crazy. Darko has skills, but he's woefully inconsistent and soft as Charmin. Why on earth would you give $50 million to a guy that the coach is going to be sitting in the fourth quarter every other night? Any team that signs Darko for big money should immediately fire the coach to just get it over with early. And please spare me all that ‘he's only 22' garbage; he's been in the league for four years. If he's soft and doesn't bring it for the whole game every night at this point, he's never going to. Toughness can't be learned like a jump shot, and neither can intensity. Trust me, in three years Chad Ford and the cult of potential he leads will be saying ‘hey, he's only 25!' Another guy set to get way too much money is Sideshow Bob himself, Anderson Varejao. If this dude either played for a lottery team or had short hair, he'd be considered an average player at best. He's like the exact opposite of Darko; all hustle and no skills. He has no offensive game outside of putbacks, and doesn't rebound as well as he gets credit for. But since his six points and six rebounds came on a playoff team that made the Finals, and he has crazy hair that everyone remembers, he's a big deal. He's another guy that you really don't want on the floor in crunch time if you have other options, and if he gets the huge money he's reportedly seeking he will be another high paid fourth quarter benchwarmer by midseason.
As you can tell, I'm not a big fan of this season's free agent class. There are a few exceptions. I like Steve Blake a lot, and if I needed a point guard I'd definitely float him an offer. Same thing with Brevin Knight. I also like small forwards Desmond Mason and Gerald Wallace. Andres Nocioni is one of my favorite players in the whole league right now; and will be a great addition for someone if the Bulls don't keep him (they agreed to a deal but that may end up being a sign-and-trade situation). I'd sign them up in a heartbeat as long as the price wasn't too high. Am I sounding like a total cheapskate here? Yes, but there's a reason for that. Big contracts do more to hinder a team's progress than anything else other than bad draft picks; once you sign two or three of them, it's hard to make any further moves to improve your roster outside of the draft. So when you sign a few players to big contracts and your team ends up being a first round loser at best, you're stuck in limbo for years to come. If you see a team give a player $50 million based on potential or because he put up numbers on a bad or mediocre team, you should expect the worst possible outcome. Anywhoo, more on this next week.
OK, that's if for this week. Next time, I'll jump full bore into free agency!! Until then…
