The Killer Crossover 03.27.08: Five Q's for the Stretch Run

Posted by Todd Spehr on 03.27.2008

The NBA regular season is winding down, with still so much to be sorted. 411's Todd Spehr tries to answer five burning questions for the NBA's stretch run.

5) Can Philly cause a first-round upset?

Admit it, you didn't see this coming.

Who did? Philly has reeled off 18 of its last 23 to catapult/fling/launch itself into the sixth spot in the East – this could only happen in the East – and are sniffing down the fifth spot. It's entirely possible they get there, which would mean an opening round date with LBJ and Co.

So basically, with road wins over Detroit and Boston and a home win over the Spurs under their belt in the last fortnight, you could easily make the case that Philly is the team most poised to be this postseasons "Golden State" and knock off a team we totally don't expect them to. As of today they sit in the sixth spot – aligning them with Orlando in a first-round matchup.

Of course, winning streaks in March don't mean much in May, but if they play anywhere near the ball they've been playing this month, then you're at least not going to beat them easily. Just imagine: Iguodala, Andre Miller, Dalembert and Thaddeus Young as your core, another couple of pieces added over the off-season, and they could possibly crack the East's top four in the next two years.


4) Who is this year's version of the Team No One Wants To Play?

Of course, no one wants to play San Antonio because, well, they're San Antonio. And nobody is praying they'll get New Orleans in the first round either; they carry that "unpredictability" tag – this group hasn't been to the playoffs, yet they have Chris Paul which means they could beat anyone. And don't forget Boston, those Eastern Conference gangbusters, with KG, Pierce and Allen anxious to prove they're worthy of the "Big 3" tag, reserved exclusively for legends (some who may or may not have had a blonde mullet and milk mustache).

However, having said ALL that… there is one true team no one really wants to play: The Phoenix Suns. Now here's why: In the last 10 days (including their OT loss at Detroit), the Suns have been playing perhaps as well as ever in the Nash Era. They're out-rebounding teams (major factor previous years) consistently, holding teams to less than 45% from the field nightly and have found a way to pile up a heap of points while doing it in an efficient fashion. The stuff we can count on - Nash getting everyone involved, Shaq patrolling the paint, Amare Stoudemire being "other-worldly" – is going to be there; out-rebounding opponents, locking down on defense and scoring at their usual clip (all at the same time) isn't guaranteed. But if they do…

And in all honesty, if you stacked every playoff team next to each other and measured all of their individual ceilings to see which one could possibly play at the highest level given personnel, planet-aligning, player depth, etc, then Phoenix can totally blow this thing out of the water. Now, this actually occurring is an entirely different story, all I'm saying is that if they play the way their capable of playing during the playoffs, then they're without question The Team No One Wants To Play.


3) Should Boston and Detroit be worried about playing Cleveland?

Heck yeah! (OK, maybe slightly exaggerated).

But seriously, this is extremely interesting. Cleveland clearly doesn't have the best team, so we really live in a world where having the best team (in this instance, in this conference,) doesn't necessarily get you out of a series. Reason being: LeBron James. Sure, Cleveland isn't as deep as Boston or Detroit, but if they're down three heading into the fourth do you really feel comfortable? I think not. Basically you have to kill the Cavs in the first three quarters of any playoff game they play just to avoid a repeat of "Game 5" from last year.

James almost supersedes the whole team concept, as absolutely ridiculous as that sounds. And no, you're not going to win titles this way, but it just so happens that this guy has proven he – and four guys off the street - can beat teams in a seven-game series. Heck, he beat a Detroit team that has won 50-games each of the last six years, has made five straight trips to the East Finals and two trips to the Finals, by himself last year! He did. And don't think Boston (most likely second-round opponent shall they advance) is exempt either.

Final note: Cleveland has yet to fully integrate their "newbies" either, which, if they do, only makes them that much tougher.

(I can't believe I just wrote that about a team like Cleveland; these are the things LeBron does to a writer.)


2) Who fills spots 7 and 8 in the West?

I say Dallas is out – and this has nothing to do with Nowitzki's injury - with Golden State and Denver in.

Here's why: Dallas just hasn't been playing well enough since acquiring Kidd (10-8 with him, with all eight losses against playoff-bound teams). In the grand scheme of things, has Kidd really made them any better? He's reluctant to shoot, he sure isn't as quick as he used to be, and right now, the only player who he seems to be making better is Erick Dampier. Not good. And just think: Things really haven't gone right since the end of the third quarter of Game 3 of the '06 Finals. They've been cursed from that singular point onwards. They were staring a 3-0 lead in the face, only to lose the next four to Miami, then have a terrific '07 regular season count for naught after falling apart against a team that simply wanted it more (Golden State), and then to see the '08 season pass them by as the West gets stronger and they suddenly have chemistry issues.

Also note that the Mavs have Golden State (twice), Phoenix, Denver, the Lakers, Utah and New Orleans on their sked before the season finishes, most of those games likely to be played without Nowitzki. I'm no Nostradamus, but Dallas missing the playoffs could seriously happen.

Now, before getting too deep, it's worth pointing out that Denver is only 3 ½ behind Utah. ("What's your point?") Well, if they can somehow catch them and win their division, they're fourth in the West. Crazy huh? It's extremely possible they could miss the whole dance, but in the same breath there's a chance they can sneak into the top four. Of course, there's only 11 games to do this, but hey, the West has been unpredictable all year, so who knows?

Denver has won six of their last eight, so they're playing well enough to win their way in. Iverson – and I don't care what anyone says – should at least be thrown a bone and "considered" for MVP. I know he can't win it, but gosh darn it, he's played as well as he ever has this year. And that's not an exaggeration. With Carmelo Anthony alongside, AI shouldn't be leading the Nuggets in scoring, but he is (26.6 ppg), plus he's playing as efficient as ever (45% FG, taking less than 20 FGA per, plus his 3.0 TO's per is his lowest ever). Don't rule out he and ‘Melo willing Denver to a seed.

Golden State is probably as comfortable as an eighth seed can be, despite the chaos around them. They'll be there again, and believe me, after last year no one wants to play them because of that We-don't-know-what-the-hell-they're-capable-of feeling.


1) Should the Lakers be as confident as they are?

First off, kudos to LA for having the season they're having, because they've dealt with a star (Kobe) who has been everything from malcontent-to-loving teammate in a matter of months, not to mention they've handled the loss of the suddenly-indispensable Andrew Bynum remarkably well, and not to discredit the fact they've integrated a stolen player (Gasol) without skipping a beat.

However…

There are reasons the Lakers should be at least cautious: 1) Remember Kobe? Yeah, well he's got an injured finger, which has been swept under the rug. Well, it needs surgery! That's right, he's playing injured, just keep it in mind. (I know, I know, this is Kobe we're talking about, but still); 2) Bynum hasn't played since January 13… when the playoffs roll around in mid-to-late April, that will mean it's three whole months since he last suited up - once again, just throwing that out there; 3) I'm sorry, but any team that relies on Pau Gasol for frontcourt strength shouldn't be the favorite. They shouldn't. He's 0-12 lifetime in the playoffs, not to mention this is who he's potentially matched up with: Duncan if they play the Spurs, Stoudemire with Phoenix, Boozer with Utah, and David West with New Orleans. You like him in any of those? Me neither.

Once again, without being branded Laker-hater, all I'm saying is this: They aren't as comfortable as what you might think. Yes, they are and have been playing very well, it's just that there are issues to be sorted, like Bynum and Gasol co-existing for one. Can Odom handle being the fourth guy? Are Vujacic and Farmar ready for the playoff spotlight? I mean, Vujacic once thought picking Steve Nash up full-court was a good idea! While they do have stability now at the ‘one' (Derek Fisher is a MAJOR upgrade over Smush Parker; it's like having bread crumbs one year, a whole sandwich the next), a nice bench and Kobe, there are still legitimate issues to be solved.

One's that, if solved, will make me look quite the fool.

You can read Todd Spehr's NBA column every Wednesday at 411mania.com. To read more of his stuff, check out his recently launched blog, "Runnin' The Point," the only online blog devoted exclusively to NBA point guards.