The Killer Crossover 04.03.08: Maverick Meltdown

Posted by Todd Spehr on 04.03.2008

Dallas thought acquiring Jason Kidd would be the answer to all their problems, but as 411's Todd Spehr explains, it's only given them more to worry about.

Just consider for a moment the last 22 months for the Dallas Mavericks: First ever trip to the NBA Finals in June of '06; a 2-0 advantage in those very Finals and a 13-point lead with 6:30 remaining in Game 3 only to lose that game, and then the series, in six to Miami; record a league-best 67 wins in the '07 regular season; become just the second number-one seed to be ousted by an eighth seed, losing in six games to Golden State in the opening round series of the '07 postseason; pull the trigger and trade "half their team" (Cuban's words, not mine) for a Hall-of-Fame yet ageing point guard in Jason Kidd midway through a difficult '08 season; on the fringe, and likely to miss out, in the tightest Western Conference race in the history of Western Civilization; could be in the '08 NBA draft lottery roughly two years after they should've been celebrating a title and parading in downtown Dallas.

Has a team ever had a comparable fall from grace? OK, check that: Has a team other than Miami ever had a comparable fall from grace?

You could ask "Are they cursed?" and not actually sound crazy. But it's true, Dallas, once a team that was a true ‘championship contender' in every sense of the title, is now looking shaky at best.

And not only has the organization suffered as a whole, but individuals within are starting to come under question: Is Avery Johnson's micro-managing coaching wearing thin? Does Dirk Nowitzki have an ounce of fortitude in his body or is Stephen Jackson metaphorically carrying it around in a jar? Is Josh Howard now overrated? Have the Mavs gambled with their future by dealing a young PG (Devin Harris) to acquire another who hasn't exactly quieted his own critics (Kidd) with his play in Dallas thus far? With six of their top eight players over 30 (and Dirk is 29), are the Mavs now too old to contend? Will Mark Cuban's head explode if things get any worse?

All legitimate questions… every last one of ‘em.

And to be honest, if I were to choose who was to miss the postseason – out of Denver, Golden State, and Dallas – right now based on remaining schedule, current state, chemistry, etc, then I'd say that it would be Dallas. Their next three games are against Golden State, the Lakers, and Phoenix, all on the road, all possibly without a healthy reigning MVP, all while knowing that if they slip just a little, at this time of year, in this conference, then by the time they rise off the canvas the opportunity to salvage whatever is left of the season is most likely gone.

While that would make this season a write-off, just look at the future: Dallas could be looking at a situation where they made a major trade to acquire an older player, and in the process gave up younger players - Harris and DeSagana Diop - and two first-round picks (2008, which they may need now and what could possibly be a big one - 2010 - as well). Basically, Cuban and Co. took a We-have-to-win-now approach by acquiring Kidd and decided to worry later; Later is later.

And no, Kidd hasn't played a full season in Dallas (just a fraction over 20 games, actually), so maybe mashing the panic button isn't necessary quite yet. But his play – and his team's record with him – haven't exactly evoked the whole everything's gonna be just fine feeling. I'm not feeling warm and fuzzy, I'll tell you that much.

But, I also have a rule: Never write-off champions. No matter what age, what injury, what situation - champions can tap into realms us mere mortals can't even think of accessing, so to dismiss Kidd and all he has been and all he is could be unfair. Having said that, his second tour of duty in Dallas has seen him become the most reluctant of shooters (I swear there are instances where he plays like Jacque Vaughn) and he has been somewhat hesitant taking the team by the horns, something he did so well in New Jersey and Phoenix. Sure, he's the new guy, but still.

Also, was it possible that Kidd's numbers in New Jersey were sugar-coated this year? While he was racking up triple-dips and giving us that "Yeah, so?" look, he was actually stumbling through some portions of the season – sub-40% shooting in his final three months as a Net – while overloading (and distracting) us fantasy geeks with an inordinate amount of boarding for a guard and the second-highest assist average of his career. And now in Dallas, with the spotlight firmly on him, Kidd isn't doing what, well, we all thought he should be doing. He consistently leaves that feeling that he should be giving Dallas more, but really, at 35, should we be thinking this?

And what exactly did Dallas expect by getting Kidd?

LA stole Pau Gasol because they needed more depth in the frontcourt. Phoenix envisioned Shaq anchoring their half-court team, while the usual suspects amped up their speed game, and to also control the boards and give them a interior defensive presence. But it seems Dallas didn't really have anything in mind other when going after Kidd other than We're going to try to get Jason Kidd!

Did they want to speed it up? Not by getting rid of Devin Harris. Did they want better perimeter defense? Kidd had microfracture surgery, you know? His lateral movement isn't what it once was. Are they now a half-court team? I mean, other than gaining a guy who is mentally tough (he wouldn't have stood for the crap that was the Golden State series), just what exactly made them try so hard to make this deal? And as odd as this may sound when talking about Kidd – this is, after all, a guy who during All-Star Games makes it look like he's played with some guys for ten years – but he has somewhat negatively slanted the delicate team dynamics.

Take Josh Howard for example. The guy just cannot play well with both Kidd and Nowitzki together. Take one of them out, and he's dynamite. And if you ever wanted an example of how misleading statistics can be, just consider that Howard is having a career year (20 points and seven boards per) and is not having half the impact he had during their run to the Finals two years ago. His three-point shooting has almost disappeared, his offensive rebounding is down, and for some reason, Kidd's arrival meant instant meltdown for Howard as he proceeded to shoot just 31% in his first five games teamed with the former Net. (Of course, Nowitzki goes down and he drops 30-plus in the next three, but do you think they're going anywhere with Dirk out?)

Remarkably, the last time Dallas actually beat a team that had a winning record was February 13 against Portland – six days before the Kidd deal. That's right, they're 0-10 against winning teams with Kidd. That's a helluva stat, one that no doubt gives Mark Cuban heart palpitations.

Now, hoops is a funny game. Once again, and not to beat the Phoenix drum, but everyone was ready to grade Steve Kerr's GM grading report with a big fat red marker before they won 10 of 13. So perhaps patience is the best virtue. Dallas still is talented, they are deep, and they do play San Antonio as well as just about anyone (only Malone's Jazz, Shaq's Lakers, and Nowitzki's Mavs have beaten Duncan in a playoff series), which counts for something, but it looks as though their major deal has had major downfalls.

And there isn't much time to right the ship.

You can read Todd Spehr's NBA column every Wednesday at 411mania.com. To read more of his stuff, check out his recently launched blog, "Runnin' The Point," the only online blog devoted exclusively to NBA point guards.