The Killer Crossover 4.10.08: Eastern Conference Weather Report
Posted by Todd Spehr on 04.10.2008
With the regular season coming to a close, it's time to take a look at the Eastern Conference playoff seeds. 411's Todd Spehr checks the weather in the eight cities represented in the playoffs and offers his assessment.
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
8. ATLANTA
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 39-43 -- play Boston in first round.
THE GOOD Wow, Phillips Arena sure does look nice with people in it, doesn't it?
THE BAD The possibility that Kevin Garnett may play parts of Game 4 of their opening round series with a broom.
THE LOW-DOWN Look, I'm not going to sit here and say "The Hawks are a great chance to cause some damage in the playoffs they might be this year's Golden State " No, cross it out, I'm not. They will draw Boston and, chances are, they will be swept. But what I will say is that it's great that the leagues longest playoff drought has ended - Steve Smith and Mookie Blaylock can now breathe a sigh of relief - as the Hawks have really cultivated the young pups and shown improvement this year. And think about it, they have a nice little nucleus forming here: Their two leaders are guys who have gone deep in the playoffs (All-Star Joe Johnson and new addition Mike Bibby), they have a future All-Star (Josh Smith), the second best rookie in the league (Al Horford) and two lottery picks that finally produced (Marvin Williams and Josh Childress). Throw a few more pieces together up front and there is a nice future here.
(Of course, please don't forget to trash this whole column when Atlanta loses its final five games, gets overtaken by Indiana for the eighth and final playoff spot, and Dominique Wilkins and Kevin Willis decide to come out of retirement for the '09 season.)
OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
7. TORONTO
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 42-40 -- wins tie-breaker with Philly, to play Orlando in first round.
THE GOOD Chris Bosh, two legitimate point guards (TJ Ford and Jose Calderon), everyone is finally healthy, and if that projected record actually becomes a reality then they dodge Detroit in the first round.
THE BAD Just exactly what happened to these guys? One year ago they were the surprise team of the league with 47 wins, home-court in the opening round, the strongest international flavor of any NBA team, a Coach of the Year winner, and a very bright future. Now, they've struggled most of the year, are actually below .500 (but still in the postseason - thank you Eastern Conference!), and both Bosh and Ford missed extended periods.
THE LOW-DOWN Still probably a year or two away from making audible playoff noise, but the pieces are here. Chris Bosh, as good as he is, isn't the in-your-face leader that perhaps a young team such as this needs, but he's still darn good. The Raps are being patient with top pick Andrea Bargnani, whose output is at 10.2 points per this year. A frequent point (pun intended) of topic this season was regarding who should start at the point: TJ Ford, the original holder of the flame who, when on his game, can be Kevin Johnson-esque with his penetration ability, or Jose Calderon, who thrived while Ford was out and even had some whispering for an All-Star berth. Those whisperers have since died. Calderon held the spot until Ford returned, but played badly, and volunteered to return to the bench. Who does that? Anyway, a first round matchup with Orlando isn't torturous, but Toronto would have to play their best to have a sniff.
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6. PHILADELPHIA
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 42-40 -- loses tie-breaker with Toronto, to play Detroit in first round.
THE GOOD Maurice Cheeks should be Coach of the Year and he should get bonus points for how Philly did in the latter stages of last year, the post-AI era. Andre Iguodala, despite the hype that followed him after his progression last season, got even better this season. And Andre Miller, the most underrated PG in the business, put up 17/7/3 this year that's 17 points, seven rebounds, and an average of three people in the crowd nightly who actually notice him.
THE BAD May slip to seventh in this final week and end up drawing Detroit as an opening round foe. May steal one game, but won't beat the vaunted Pistons four times in seven games.
THE LOW-DOWN In all likelihood, will probably be bumped in the first round that's likely but not guaranteed against Orlando, but very likely against Detroit. Having said that, you can't avoid the fact that this year Philly has exceeded even the loftiest of expectations, with a streak of 16 wins from 23 games through a stretch from late February to March, wins over Phoenix, Boston, Detroit and San Antonio in that time, and a quality core with a good coach. Sure, Iguodala is the face of the franchise, but Philly can mostly thank Miller for being so much better this year. Philly must repeat: must pursue Elton Brand this summer, the Sixers need a power forward to complete their transformation in the After Iverson Era. Just throw a number at Brand, make Donald Sterling pay through the nose just to keep him, and see what happens. Just think: Iggy, Miller, Sam Dalembert and Elton Brand tell me they're not winning 45-50 games in the East. Even without Brand, the future looks pretty nice here.
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5. WASHINGTON
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 43-39 - play Cleveland in the first round.
THE GOOD Agent Zero is back!
THE BAD Agent Zero is back! ( and late-season chemistry may be an issue here). Honorable Mention: Playing the Cavs in the opening round for what feels like maybe the sixteenth straight year. Can you (the Wiz) at least tank a few games so that we could maybe avoid this? Yours sincerely, the TV gods.
THE LOW-DOWN As tough as it was for Washington to try to find an extra 30 points a night from other guys in the absence of Gilbert Arenas, you can't help but admire the job that the supporting cast did in stepping in and helping Washington be in a position to claim a spot in the East fifth that they most likely would've finished in with Arenas anyway. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler (aka "Tough Juice" hands down the best nickname in the game) both had All-Star years, the latter establishing himself easily as one of the five best small forwards in the game. DeShawn Stevenson, "Survivor" beard and all, had a very nice year, and Antonio Daniels, who sure won't make fantasy geeks buzz, actually filled in more-than-nicely at the point. Hopefully Arenas' return won't warp chemistry too bad, but they'll most likely be heading home after round one, for the third straight year, against Cleveland. Funny thing is, they have solid players at every position, so where do you need to get better?
PARTLY CLOUDY BUT A CHANCE FOR CLEARING UP
4. CLEVELAND
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 46-36 - play Washington in first round.
THE GOOD Obviously that LeBron guy, who will put up 30/8/7, play both ends efficiently and also fully overcome his fear of taking it to the cup in crunch time, and still not win MVP. Honorable Mention: Being the squad with the unofficial title as The Team No One In The East Wants To Play.
(Just missed the cut: The fact that Larry Hughes is no longer around.)
THE BAD Have lost five of their last seven, including losses to Milwaukee and Chicago. Not only have the last 16 days threatened to douse LeBron's MVP flame, but it has also caused some concern as to whether Cleveland new roster and all - can actually return to the Finals or instead be mere playoff fodder for KG and Co.
THE LOW-DOWN As mentioned, they are the team no one wants to play because of The LeBron Factor. His mere presence gives other teams the whole We better not be caught in a close game in the fourth with that guy around and no team in the East is exempt. However, with Wally Szczerbiak shooting just 35% since coming from Seattle (he's a shooter that's not good), Ben Wallace hardly giving a whimper, and their only non-LeBron outside threat (Daniel Gibson) still injured, you hardly feel overly confident about Cleveland's chances about defending their Eastern Conference title. When you consider Boston's insane defensive capabilities and Detroit's newfound depth, can even a mega-dose of LeBron be enough to overcome those things? I'm not doubting him, I'm just sayin'
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3. ORLANDO
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 51-31 - play Toronto in first round.
THE GOOD Oft-overlooked team of the East because no one takes them serious as a playoff threat, should win over 50 games and call this season a success.
THE BAD Do you really take them serious as a playoff threat?
THE LOW-DOWN From now on we shall call it the "Andre Miller Principle" when a star (Iguodala) can be given all the attention, but the real star (Miller) is overshadowed. Orlando has their own version. All year, especially early on, Dwight Howard was showered with praise he metaphorically ripped Amare Stoudemire's head off twice in a three-week period in November - and was tagged as the main reason for the Magic's success. Having said that, you can't understate the impact that Hedo Turkoglu has had in Orlando this season. When you put up 20/6/5, basically play point forward (like he did so very well against New Orleans last week) and take practically every big shot for your team this season, then you're probably somewhere in the top-two reasons for your teams' success. And look at Howard pre and post-All-Star game: Pre 22 and 15; Post 18 and 14. He's slipped, by his lofty standards, as of late, and it has been Turkoglu that has stepped forward. With Rashard Lewis alongside, Orlando's nice frontline can sometimes overcome the lack of a highly regarded backcourt player. They may make waves in the postseason, but nothing beyond the second round.
WARM AND SUNNY
2. DETROIT
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 59-23 - play Philadelphia in first round.
THE GOOD Playoff experience, battle-tested and rock-solid starters, the deepest bench they've had since the '04 championship team, and best of all, Cleveland has to get through Boston if they want to get to Detroit again.
THE BAD Surviving without a legitimate center, the attitude they have when they're the favorite in any series (always a better underdog team), a LeBron Hangover if a Cleveland series happens, and the very real possibility that if they fail to make the Finals this year then some changes to this ageing core may be inevitable.
THE LOW-DOWN One of those teams that is built for playoff runs, the Pistons will be looking for their sixth straight trip to the Eastern Conference Finals, something that hasn't been done since Russell's Celtics did it in the mid-60s. Anytime you do something Russell's Celtics did, then you're doing OK. As possibly insane as this may sound, facing Boston in the ECF might be preferred over Cleveland. Why? Well, this isn't to say Cleveland is better than Boston, because they're not, but rather, that Detroit has a history of playing "teams" far better than they play "one-man teams." It's just how they are. Of course, they still have Chauncey Billups (who destroys the best PG's in the game when matched up with them), Rip, Sheed, Prince, and a fountain of youth on their bench which gives them much-needed depth. They'll get to the East Finals again, and don't put a trip to the Finals out of their realm. If they don't make it, look for some changes.
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1. BOSTON
PROJECTED FINAL RECORD: 66-16 - play Atlanta in first round.
THE GOOD An amazing regular season, the feeling that there's a good team in Boston again makes the NBA feel, well, like the NBA should, and how Kevin Garnett actually has made Celtic Pride real again.
THE BAD Not much. To be ultra picky, let's go with the nickname "The Big 3," which was acquired by Pierce, Allen and Garnett after they had been together 12 seconds, this after it took Bird, Parish and McHale 12 years to get it.
THE LOW-DOWN When Ray Allen was acquired draft-day, the question was whether he and Paul Pierce were enough to lead the Celtics back. When KG was thrown in the mix, the question then became whether their young PG (Rajon Rondo) could sufficiently run a ball club with so much artillery. After Rondo proved he could, the question on Boston was about their depth. After Powe, House, Perkins, Big Baby, and Pollard (OK, scrap that one) proved their worth - not to mention the additions of Sam Cassell and PJ Brown - then depth was no longer an issue. The question now is whether Boston, after 21 years without going, can return to the NBA Finals. Do you think we should question that?
You can read Todd Spehr's NBA column every Wednesday at 411mania.com. To read more of his stuff, check out his recently launched blog "Runnin' The Point," the only online blog devoted exclusively to NBA point guards.
