The Killer Crossover 04.17.08: Western Conference Weather Report

Posted by Todd Spehr on 04.17.2008

With the regular season coming to a close, it's time to take a look at the Western Conference playoff seeds. 411's Todd Spehr checks the weather in the eight cities represented in the playoffs from the most competitive conference in league history, and offers his assessment.

You may notice something different.

Last week in my Eastern Conference Weather Report I listed "Projected Final Record" as one of the sub-titles below each team. Not this week. No way. Don't have that much fortitude. Seriously, I'd love to try, but at the same time, when I re-read this later in the week I may feel nauseous. Oh, and by the way, there's two days left in the regular season! That's right, you'd think it would be decided by now, but no, the Western Conference seeding is quickly turning into this unsolvable mathematical equation that you stare at, and stare at, and try to understand, but in the end you're left with nothing. Thankfully, the smoke clears this weekend and the playoffs begin, and the seeds will be set, and we'll have new things to worry about.

In the meantime, let's take a look at the West weather – I was even afraid to tag each squad with a weather condition, seriously – and gauge each team.


OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS


8. DENVER

THE GOOD – I'm dead serious, but why isn't Allen Iverson at least an MVP candidate? He has been the Nuggets' best player, hands down, this year. Consistent. Has shot well. Showed up in every big game. Sacrificial. You name it, he's been it. Plus, Denver will win 50 games and AI will finish up averaging 26/3/7 and two steals – not too distant from Chris Paul digits - in 42 hard minutes per night. At least throw him a bone and give him a few votes.

THE BAD – J.R. Smith can be brilliant one night, and literally sit mute in his car in the arena garage the next. Consider this: In April he has followed every 50% shooting night (four times) with a sub-40% night. Every single time. Honorable mention: Denver gives up way too many points – this deserves its own paragraph, but to be brutally honest, the Smith shooting stat blew my mind.

THE LOW-DOWN – The 1 vs. 8 West match-up doesn't have the disparity that normal years do, so to completely rule out Denver advancing would be kind of silly, but it could probably only happen against New Orleans. And honestly, a lot of this hinges on Carmelo Anthony, and here's why: Denver's last three games have all been big ones, yet Anthony has left me each time feeling a little shortchanged. Thursday's must-win game at Golden State should have been a game where Anthony demands the ball, drops 40, and asserts himself as The Man. Instead he had 25 – an average game for him – while Iverson, who consistently comes up big whenever needed, scored 33. The next game at Utah was tight through the first half, until Melo clocked Deron Williams, drew a flagrant, and basically signaled the start of a Utah rout, which ended in a 124-97 loss. Then, in the game that was to determine their fate, against Houston, he scored just 11 on 3-14 while AI goes for 33 again. All I'm saying is this: Melo, please show up in the playoffs.


7. DALLAS

THE GOOD – First and foremost, Nellie and his Warriors missed the playoffs. From now until forever that will be cause for celebration in Dallas. But seriously, Dallas has been better – underline "better," not good, but better - of late, as they still get acclimated to Jason Kidd. Also, Dirk Nowitzki is "on the court" which is always good, as opposed to being "off it." Now, whether he's actually healthy or not isn't totally known, but he's on the court – this is good.

THE BAD – Just 3-12 against teams above .500 with Jason Kidd. Just so you know -every team in the West playoffs has records above .500. Crazy, I know, but true. And despite the fact they've won three of their last five against .500-or-better teams, it hardly feels great when you consider their with-Kidd-chemistry isn't, despite accounts to the contrary, all there yet. Final note: Nowitzki's health. Yes, he is a freak for repeatedly coming back quickly from ankle injuries, but remember, you're asking a less-than-100% man to carry your team's fortunes through an ultra-competitive conference.

THE LOW-DOWN – Really hard to believe it was just a year ago they were a 67-win team. But times change, and not even a 67-win team means anything the way the West is now. In all likelihood, they're staring at a Hornets or Lakers matchup, which neither is terribly appetizing from where I sit. However, if they draw New Orleans they will have playoff experience and newfound toughness (Kidd) to pin their hopes on. Nowitzki's health, Josh Howard's ability to show up consistently (with Kidd and Dirk out there, that is), Jason Terry's jump-shot, and Kidd's ability to play the all-around game that only he can, are all pivotal if Dallas can advance. But really, do you feel good about that happening?


PARTLY CLOUDY BUT STRONG CHANCE FOR CLEARING UP


6. PHOENIX

THE GOOD – Can now play the slow-it-down game to combat the Spurs/Lakers/Jazz types that can grind you down, but also can amp it up and blow you away like the Suns of old against anyone without warning. And who would have thought, Shaq has exceeded all expectations with his interior presence, defensive rebounding and, as he showed the Spurs last week, still potent low-post game when left with single coverage. Oh, almost forgot, Amare Stoudemire averaged 30 and nine with Shaq.

THE BAD – Funnily enough, the line is fine between good and bad. Take Shaq for example: Been playing great, really has, but Houston just tore him apart on the high screen-and-rolls with McGrady last Friday night. Diesel couldn't guard it in his prime, so you think teams aren't going to try to exploit this now? Also, Steve Nash has been struggling with back spasms as of the past week, which explains his disinterest in scoring lately. Gotta have him healthy. And there are still the odd times when Phoenix has those games where they just get killed on the boards, turn it over a bunch, and have longer-than-usual spells without hitting the from the outside. Obviously, this isn't the ingredient for winning playoff basketball, so overcoming this stuff is, what we would call Very Important.

THE LOW-DOWN – Perhaps the best sixth seed (should they finish there; they're there as I pen this) in the history of basketball. Seriously. And you get the feeling that perhaps home-court isn't as important to them as other teams – at least that's how they are quoted. Anyway, the whole Shaq-Amare relationship has been an unequivocal success when looking at their numbers, and they are the toughest 4/5 combo in the West – healthy Bynum and Gasol included. Also, Phoenix ticks all the boxes: Scoring (eight capable scorers), defense (interior and perimeter), rebounding (Shaq factor), experience, depth, and best of all, this Horry-shaped chip on their collective shoulders. But have they picked the wrong year to have this killer combination?


5. HOUSTON

THE GOOD – Hmmm… let's see. Well, that 22-game win streak sure is noteworthy. Especially when you consider half of it was done without their so-called franchise player. But now that is over, and they are hungry, motivated, well-coached, and extremely good defensively without (other than Shane Battier) a bona-fide lock-down guy. I think their motivation is in the way every other team views them – as playoff fodder; whether or not that is justifiable is yet to be seen.

THE BAD – Season-ending injury to Yao Ming… wait a minute, have I got that in the right spot? Honorable mention: The mere fact that every other team in the West is crossing their fingers, toes, whatever, just to get the opportunity to face Houston, who, for some reason, is on everyone's playoff wish list. Honorable mention #2: Tracy McGrady's playoff history.

THE LOW-DOWN – Easily one of the most unusual teams in recent memory. They lost their starting center and his nightly 22/11; plugged that hole with a 41-year-old man; have had a season that includes a white-hot streak (combined 32-7 for Jan/Feb/Mar) and a mediocre remainder (combined 20-19 for Nov/Dec/Apr); have a leader (McGrady) with a checkered playoff history; rely on used goods (Alston, Jackson, Wells) for valuable minutes; and have received major contributions from rookies (Scola and Landry). Tell me they're not unusual. But the thing is, they play hard, they play together, and they play tough. And at this time of year, that is difficult to beat. But with Yao missing, they will struggle against the other teams with timber (LAL, SA, PHX) and any advancing in the playoffs will be a major achievement. Of course, they might be the Detroit of the West and respond to under-dog status with vigor, just like during their streak when everyone was expecting it to stop before it did. Bottom line is, they're walking the fine line between dark-house and easy-beat.


4. UTAH

THE GOOD – Any time they play at home. Also, Deron Williams.

THE BAD – Any time they play on the road.

THE LOW-DOWN – The above analysis may seem simple, but it is oh so true. Utah has been borderline unbeatable at home this season, going an amazing 37-4. But get ‘em on the road and you have a completely different team. Utah rolls eight deep – from Boozer all the way to Millsap - and they are underrated when it comes to talk of the West's Elite. Utah has posted wins against each of the other seven seeded playoff teams in their conference, and not to forget they're the only team from the West who boasts wins at Detroit and Boston (so much for that "They stink on the road" stuff). Last year's run to the West Finals, their depth, their location on everyone's radar (nowhere), and their tough-minded attitude are all advantages. Plus, they have Kyle Korver, which, from what everyone tells me, has been a good addition.


3. SAN ANTONIO

THE GOOD – OK, for those who are ready to smash the panic button regarding San Antonio… just stop. After all, they still have Tim Duncan, they still have Gregg Popovich, and they still are the defending champs - which means the world unless you're the Miami Heat and the year is 2007. But here's the thing: People may write them off now, but in the past five years it has only been stupid occurrences (Fisher's shot in '04; Dirk's three-point play in '06) that have eliminated them. Yes, stupid occurrences. That's what it takes to beat them in the past. Just remember that.

THE BAD – Two things: Scoring and health. 1) Scoring may not be that big of a deal, because if their offense isn't all there – which, of late, it hasn't been – then they can lock-down defensively like few teams on the planet. But consider that when you take out the Golden State game on April Fools and their last game at Sacramento, that they're averaging 79 a game for the month of April, which includes losses to Utah, Phoenix and the Lakers – all games played a playoff-like levels. 2) Injuries have cost them access to all three of their main guys (TD, Parker and Ginobili), who have all played together as a trio less than ever this season. Add Robert Horry's knee woes (which may see him done this year) and the average age of their top twelve players (32.9), and health might be the kicker that sends them out.

THE LOW-DOWN – The funny thing is, while it seems that their backs are up against the wall, in reality, there are very few teams actually capable of beating them four times in seven games. Phoenix is probably the team that most looks likely to do it, for two reasons: 1) They have history - Phoenix knows how to play them; 2) In the two match-ups with Shaq, Phoenix has been the only team in recent memory that has given Tim Duncan any semblance of trouble. And after what the Lakers did to them on Sunday, you'd throw them into that mix as well. While the faces have gotten older, and the injuries have mounted, it may be easier than ever to write-off the Spurs, this year's defending champs who, coincidentally, have never gone back-to-back. I write this cautiously, but if there ever was a time to beat them, it is now. Once again though, I write that with extreme unadulterated, unrestricted, and unconditional caution.


SUNNY FOR GOOD PORTIONS; SLIM CHANCE FOR CLOUDS


2. NEW ORLEANS

THE GOOD – I could go into detail about the growth of West and Chandler, how Peja is finally healthy, and how Byron Scott has finally got the hang of this coaching thing, but who would I be kidding? Chris Paul, he of possible MVP, MIP, DPOY and whatever other award you can think of, has gone from being up-and-coming PG to knocking-on-the-door of the best in the game. (Note: I'm not ready for that torch to be passed; my argument is this: Carlos Boozer has better numbers than Tim Duncan, but he's not a better player, and I will use this in my Paul vs. Nash argument as well, Nash just has too many immeasurable qualities for him to be stripped of his Best PG In The Game status). Anyway, Paul has been nothing short of amazing this year. And it's not just his numbers, but how he has led a team that no one expected to contend this year to the top (or near top) of the West, and kept them there for 99.984% of the season, while playing his position as well as it has ever been played for someone his age. I need to take a breath…

THE BAD – Depth. As crazy as this sounds, but the '07 version of the Hornets were actually deeper than this season's, with nine guys averaging over nine points per, compared to just four this year. Outside of their starters – four of which log 35+ minutes a night – New Orleans just sees meaningful minutes from three guys (Wells, Pargo and Bobby Jackson). Other than Phoenix (because that's how they are) and Houston (by necessity), every other team in the West goes more than eight deep. Honorable mention: I've heard this a few times recently, but the fact that New Orleans haven't been to the playoffs with this group. This actually could carry some weight.

THE LOW-DOWN – If you really think about it, they are probably in the position where an appearance in the second round may translate the season into an undeniable success. I'm sure they're not thinking that way, but it's true. And really, what are the playoff expectations here? New Orleans has good players at every starting position, excellent defense (giving up just 95 per) and good shooting, but while they have been an excellent regular season team, their playoff measure is yet to be met. Paul will provide heroics, West will be steady, but is it possible that another of their key guys goes missing? Will Scott be out-coached at some point? Will a small variable such as this derail their season? They aren't as snug and cozy as perhaps first thought, but then again, they have defied logic for an 82-game season, so don't rule it out as playoff debutants.


1. LA LAKERS

THE GOOD – An awesome finish to the season that saw them take on all comers and end up Numero Uno in the West. Who would have thought this in training camp?

THE BAD – The prolonged absence of Andrew Bynum and his uncertain co-exist with Pau Gasol; Kobe's finger; Fisher's foot; Gasol's strength against fellow West power forwards (Amare, Duncan, Boozer, West, etc); a bench that, while potent during the regular season, doesn't have one single proven playoff performer. Other than that, they look alright.

THE LOW-DOWN – While everyone will point at Kobe and say "team player…team player" now, it actually has been the progress of The Other Guys that has been the true indication of this team because, in reality, has Kobe been any better of a player this year than others? The acquisition of Derek Fisher has been huge. Andrew Bynum's growth from Olowokandi-esque to Al Jefferson-esque was a big surprise – health notwithstanding. And getting Pau Gasol from Memphis for nothing (there, I said it) was a stroke of luck, to put it mildly. And if you doubt the whole Phil Jackson thing - because he's coached some of the very best - just understand that he has made Sasha Vujacic and Ronny Turiaf serviceable NBA players, and he also helped me write that with a straight face. That's huge. Anyway, the Lakers legitimately have a shot at winning it all for the first time since Shaq left, and it may only be the boys from Boston or Detroit who stop them.

You can read Todd Spehr's NBA column every Wednesday at 411mania.com. To read more of his stuff, check out his recently launched blog "Runnin' The Point," the only online blog devoted exclusively to NBA point guards.