NBA BeatDown 04.21.08: Kobe The MVP, First Round of the Playoffs, More
Posted by BL Anderson on 04.21.2008
We'll take a look at why Kobe is the MVP, why LeBron is NOT the MVP, First Round Playoff Predictions, and another Q&A...it must be BL Anderson and the NBA BeatDown! Who else would try to fit all of this into a column. Crazy bastard...
NBA BeatDown 04.21.08
Hello everyone and welcome to another semi-exciting edition of the NBA BeatDown. I'm BL Anderson, so let's get right to what we've got in store this week. We're going to be talking about how the playoffs picture has been laid out in both the Western Conference (YAY!) and the Eastern Conference (Boo…!), as well as some MVP talk; who should get it, and why. And as always, let's start off with some news!
-Around the League
Memphis Freshman Derrick Rose declares for the NBA Draft
This was obviously expected, and with comparison to Dwyane Wade, comes as no surprise at all. Rose has a lot of the tools that Dwyane Wade had when he came out of Marquette – Big for a point guard, explosive to the basket, got a bit of shot, can distribute and rebound when necessary…those are good qualities that teams will be looking for.
Rose is the only player in the draft that could potentially unseat Michael Beasley for the #1 pick in this years draft. That, however, is a slim and none chance, and Beasley was too dominant in college, and is more of a sure thing than any other player in the draft, and the most sure thing since Kevin Durant and Greg Oden in last year's draft.
Most teams need good point guards, and Rose can fit those bills. The T-Wolves could use him, as even Rose as a rookie is an upgrade over Sebastian Telfair, and may be about the same as Randy Foye, except Foye is a shoot-first, ask questions later type of guard. The Heat could definitely use him, also the Clippers would be a good fit with Elton Brand in the post to hike the ball to (provided that Elton Brand isn't tired of the constant mediocrity of the Clippers and jumps ship to greener free agent pastures). The Bucks are pretty set at guard, they just need to fill their forward spots with worthwhile talent. Other than that, most teams could use Rose at the #2 spot. Memphis is iffy because they have 3 young point guards, but they don't know which one is the one of the future; is it Mike Conley Jr., the 4th pick in last year's draft? Or Kyle Lowry, who'll be coming up on his 3rd year in the league (2nd really as he was injured all of his 1st season), or Javaris Crittenden, acquired from the Lakers and showing signs of life as a pro basketball player? All other lottery teams would love to grab hold of Rose.
-This Ain't a Scene, it's a Goddamn MVP Race
This has been probably the tightest MVP race since I've been a fan, which spans about 15 years worth of basketball. There are four serious candidates that must be considered:
-Chris Paul – New Orleans Hornets
The Team: (56-26) 1st in Southwest Division – First Division title in the history of the Hornets Franchise – 2nd seed in Western Conference Playoffs
The Stats: 21.1 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 11.6 APG(!), 2.72 SPG
The Back-ups: David West (2008 All-star), Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic (Former All-star)
Projected Record W/O Player: 35 wins (max)
The argument: Chris Paul is the best player on the second-best team in the Western Conference. Without Paul, where would the Hornets be? Not in the playoffs, but maybe in the 30-win region, 4th in the division. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the NBA today, and can do it all: pass and create (lead league in assists almost all season), score the basketball when necessary (49% FG), even shot 37% from beyond the arch. I feel like Paul is certainly the most valuable player in the Southwest Division (And that is really saying something, too!) MVP consideration is certainly there, and certainly deserving.
-Kobe Bryant – Los Angeles Lakers
-The Team: (57-25) 1st in Pacific Division, 1st in Western Conference Playoffs Seeding
-The Stats: 28.3 PPG (2nd in NBA), 6.3 RPG, 5.4 APG, 1.8 SPG
-The Back-ups: Pau Gasol (former All-star), Lamar Odom, Andrew Bynum (injured)
-Projected Record W/O Player: 23 wins (Memphis Grizzlies 2.0)
-The argument: This is the year that Kobe Bryant developed into a player that makes everyone around him that much better than they already were. After the Olympic Qualifier last summer, Kobe came into this season (after the "trade me" nonsense") with a new sense of purpose. Flat out, if we are talking about anybody, any player that plays the game of basketball, and we are putting that player one-on-one with Kobe Bryant, who wins? Kobe Bryant. Consider that Bryant is the leading scorer on the Lakers (2nd in the league, as well), and is also the best defender on the team, and rarely lets up. And what about Kobe's offensive ceiling, compared to the other candidates: Chris Paul could get maybe 35 points, 18 assists in a game where he is on fire. Kobe's offensive ceiling? 81 points, 2 assists. Ridiculous? Absolutely! Can the offensive ceiling be topped by any other player? Nopers.
-LeBron James – Cleveland Cavaliers
The Team: (45-37) 4th in Eastern Conference, 2nd in Central Division
The Stats: 30 PPG (leads league), 7.9 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.1 BPG
The Back-up: Wally Szczerbiak, Ben Wallace (WAY-former All-star), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (former All-star)
Projected Record W/O Player: 11 wins
The Argument: LeBron is…well, probably the most physically gifted player on the planet. And here is where he excels…on the break, dunking over people, taking them one-on-one, big enough feller to body up just about anybody give or take a few of the larger center in the NBA. James wins the scoring title this year, averaged 8 rebound per and 7 assists per. Shoe in for MVP, right? I mean…What is LeBron's offensive ceiling? Probably 60 points, 7-8 assists. We haven't SEEN LeBron's offensive ceiling. We know it's there…what if he played with some different guys? Some more talented guys? Right now, Ilgauskas is the best player on the team besides him, and that is a big-time drop off. Ilgauskas is one of the more effective and efficient centers in the NBA, but LeBron carries the team every night, with or without Big Z. And look at what the difference would be if LeBron wasn't on the team? 11 wins? I am actually being generous by a win or two, because god knows that if the Cavs didn't have LeBron to carry them offensively, who would it be? Well…it'd be Szczerbiak…but damn that would be a sorry record. 11 wins is awfully liberal of me.
-Kevin Garnett – Boston Celtics
The Team: (66-16) First in Atlantic Division, first in Eastern Conference (Biggest Turnaround in Franchise History (from 24 wins last year))
The Stats: 19 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 54% FG
The Back-ups: Paul Pierce (2008 All-star), Ray Allen (2008 All-star), Rajon Rondo
Projected Record W/O Player: 45 wins
The Argument: Kevin Garnett isn't so much about statistics, or offensive ceiling. It's about changing the culture in Boston from a losing team to a winning team, changing Boston to a place that no one wanted to play, to a place where well-sought after free agents want to play, and for bringing his A-game every single night that he is on the floor. That's what Garnett is about: Intensity; attacking your man and the opposing team defensively – giving every effort on every possession. Garnett's statistics are nowhere near as impressive as the other three candidates, but Boston has the best record in the NBA. And the Celtics without him are still good. But the Celtics WITH him are OUTSTANDING! Probably the best team in the NBA. And while Pierce is the leading scorer, and Pierce and Ray Allen share the clutch duties, Garnett just keeps plugging along, motivating players and doing the best that he can possibly do. That is the argument for Kevin Garnett.
BL's First Round Playoff Picks
Eastern Conference
1) Boston Celtics vs. 8) Atlanta Hawks
Winner: Celtics in 5 games
The Celtics have been the predominant team all year long, and not just in the Eastern Conference. They have all of the right tools, and based on their record, as well as the Hawks not being in the playoffs since the decade began. The Hawks have a good young nucleus with Josh Smith, Al Horford, and Josh Childress, as well as established vets like Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby. They just don't have much else, and they absolutely do not match up with the Celtics, as Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, and Kendrick Perkins is possibly the best starting 5 in the NBA (sorry Detroit). No love for the Hawks this year, though I do think the C's will give them a game in Atlanta because they feel bad for them.
2) Detroit Pistons vs. 7) Philadelphia 76ers
Winner: Pistons in 5 games
The Sixers did a great job of just getting into the playoffs, considering that not much was expected of them coming into the season. The expectation was that it was going to be a throw away year, but mid-season they turned it around. I would actually consider the Sixers a playoff sleeper, provided they weren't playing the best Eastern Conference team this decade. Year after year, the Pistons come out, and do their thing, winning between 50 and 60 games, always finishing at the top or near the top of the conference. They always wheel out the same guys, and that formula works for them, as they have improved from the team they had last year in terms of what they have stocked away for the future. After all, Rasheed Wallace, Rip Hamilton, Chauncey Billups, and Antonio McDyess aren't getting any younger. The frontcourt is especially aged, but back to the prediction. The problem with the Sixers is that they have no perimeter game whatsoever. And while they do cause turnovers, and get out on the break, the Pistons have the innate ability to control tempo, which will grind it to a screeching halt, and that will be the downfall of the Sixers right there. Kudos to Andre Miller and Andre Iguodala, as well as coach Maurice Cheeks, for getting the Sixers into the dance in the first place, though.
3) Orlando Magic vs. 6) Toronto Raptors
Winner: Magic in 5 games
The Magic have the best frontcourt in the NBA, with Dwight Howard, Rashard Lewis, and my man Hedo Turkoglu, but they backcourt ain't so great. The Raptors have a star in Chris Bosh, and a great point guard and a good point guard in Jose Calderon and TJ Ford. However, the Magic have seemingly overachieved this year, while the Raptors have underachieved. The Raptors cannot contain the key frontcourt players for the Magic, and that's why they'll lose in 5. No sweeps in any first round match-up this year, but if there was a possibility for one, I think that this would be the series for that. Magic are just two dominant inside and out.
4) Cleveland Cavs vs. 5) Washington Wizards
Winner: Wizards in 7
Now this is a minority selection, but I'll tell you right now that LeBron cannot carry his team past the Wizards with only Big Z and Wally Szczerbiak in the dance. Because while LeBron is the most athletic player in the NBA, without question, and is rather talented with his Oscar Robertson-like numbers, the Wizards have three verifiable All-stars, who are all-stars RIGHT NOW, in Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, and the Assassin Gilbert Arenas. This year is the year the Wizards get out of the first round. And don't worry, Cleveland fans, Ben Wallace will be in the last year of his 3-year, $60 Million contract next season, so I am sure that teams waiting to get under the salary cap will be more than willing to take his expiring contract in exchange for almost whatever Cleveland asks for. Next year might be Cleveland's year if LeBron can get a better #2 feller. This year…well, it ain't the year.
Western Conference
1) LA Lakers vs. 8) Denver Nuggets
Winner: Lakers in 5
The Lakers are pretty awesome this year, and it's not just my MVP Kobe Bryant, either. When you watch them play, they are very unselfish, and it seems like everyone is on the same page. They play good defense, and they have a 9-time world champion coach in Phil Jackson. Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol are the best SF-PF combo in the West, and if Bynum comes back healthy and motivated…look out. Meanwhile, Denver looks listless, only wishing to outscore their opponent, and not playing a lick of defense. If Marcus Camby could only convince Carmelo to buy into defensive schemes, Denver would be much better than they are. Instead, we get Denver being ousted in the first round again this year.
2) New Orleans Hornets vs. 7) Dallas Mavericks
Winner: Mavs in 6 games
The Hornets are a really good team this year, thanks to the creativity and dominance of 20 point, 10 assist guy Chris Paul. He's got lots of offensive options to throw the ball to (besides himself), and you know they play defense because Byron Scott won't play you otherwise. But here's the problem: Jason Kidd and Dirk (We ain't goin' out like that) Nowitzki have something very big to prove; it's that they can move past the first round, and into the next, and that the Jason Kidd-for-Devin Harris trade was worth it. Dirk is NOT going to let another first round exit occur, otherwise I'll eat my size 14 ½ shoe. Mavs in 6 due to the experience, and hopefully the gaining of the killer instinct necessary to win championships.
3) San Antonio Spurs vs. 6) Phoenix Suns
Winner: Spurs in 7
The Spurs are the defending champions, and this would be the Suns win if they had drawn anybody else in the first round. This is what the Shaq trade was all about: beating the Spurs at their own game. Unfortunately, Shaq is not the player that he once was, while Duncan is still the player that he once was. The Suns window for the championship is now closing, due to the aging of Steve Nash, Grant Hill, and Shaquille O'Neal. The Spurs have already proven themselves. As long as Ginobili and Duncan are healthy, and as long as Tony Parker is still unstoppable with that floater in the paint, the Spurs win this series every time, despite losing the regular season series.
4) Utah Jazz vs. 5) Houston Rockets (Rockets have Homecourt)
Winner: Jazz in 5 games
The Jazz are very much underrated, because nobody gets to see them on national TV much. However, they have the right pieces in the right places, and the Rockets will fizzle out, like they always do. Tracy McGrady isn't leading the Rockets anywhere, and they could not have found a worse match-up, as the Rockets will get grinded to a halt, much like the Sixers in the East. Boozer is too good inside, Williams is too good of a creator, the coaching is superior, etc. The Rockets may want to consider blowing things up, because not getting out of the first round after winning 22 straight this spring during the regular season must certainly hurt those in charge of this thing. The Jazz are too cohesive not to pull this one off.
BL's Most Valuable Player Award Goes To…
Kobe Bryant. Just from looking at the argument, you can see very specifically the reasons why. Kobe is just a better player than everyone else in the world, can back it up on the court, knows the game so well that sometimes it is just effortless, and makes every player around him that much better.
Kobe for MVP, biatches.
BeatDown Q&A
BL: Hello again everyone and welcome to the BeatDown Q&A, where we have another sucker...I mean...'participant' from the great 411 forums...Mitch Joseph aka thesonicvision! MJ, as we'll refer to you from here on in, how are you, sir?
MJ: Glad to be here Blanderson. (Yes, it just came to me). Hmm… maybe I should be more respectful as a first-timer on the Q&A. Anyway, I'll try to add a little flavor to the column, along with some NBA insight.
BL: Do you think that you're the only goob that came up with ‘blanderson'?! And you should certainly be more respectful…for I am an all-knowing columnist! Yeah…that's right…I'm full of shit.
Let's get started right away with some draft stuff. This week, Derrick Rose declared for the NBA draft. Now, most projected him as the #2 selecting overall, but some people are pegging him as the top pick (the drunkards and Anthony Escobar). Where do you think that Rose falls into the draft, and what type of pro do you think Rose will turn out to be?
MJ: Well, it's no secret that Rose is the kind of player that you can just insert into a team. He's an athletic 6'4 guard with that pass-first attitude. No team will have any doubts about his desire to win either, considering his Tigers just made a NCAA championship appearance. Since the West dismantled the East this year (besides Boston) thanks to excellent point guard play, Rose will be highly coveted. He'll be selected either second or first, with Beasley getting the other spot. As far as his potential goes, I'd say he can be a perennial starting guard- maybe make the All-Star game a few times. The only real problem he has is his awkward jumper. If he works on it he'll do fine.
BL: Apparently, Anthony Escobar, the drunkards, and now Mitch Joseph are on the Derrick Rose #1 pick bandwagon. Somehow I feel like that, if I don't conform, I'll find myself being jumped by lots of people who are smaller than me. BTW, if you are a big feller, who is tall and strong, but don't have the forethought not to start fights with groups of smaller people who have access to blunt weapons…don't leave the house. I should quit my job and take my own advice.
Let's move to the other big announcement draft-wise, as Kevin Love declared for the draft, but will not hire an agent. Love is generally predicted as a mid-to-late first rounder. Your thoughts on where he'll fall, and if he's got what it takes to be a contributor in the NBA?
MJ: Kevin Love can hit threes from Japan. Good for him. Although Love's post game is overrated, his rebounding ability is no joke. He can shoot the ball and is surprisingly athletic. He'll get selected pretty low in the first round, as he'll have to earn himself a starting spot through his rebounding and energy. Doesn't he look like a cross between Brad Miller and Linas Kleiza?
BL: Bill Simmons is correct when he says that Love has a ‘color-me-bad' beard. It worked for them…back in 1993. I am not in favor of Kevin Love's beard. And the Linas Kleiza/Brad Miller mixture is a good way of looking at it. Maybe if Kevin McHale/Snow from ‘Informer' fame. (McHale's Navy…I mean, body…Snow's sunglasses. Trust me, if Kevin Love was wearing sunglasses, he'd look JUST LIKE SNOW!
Over to the MVP race briefly, as all four of the serious competitors for the award got into the playoffs this year. My pick is Kobe. But if you got a press vote, and had to choose one, who would it be, and why?
MJ: Kobe isn't even an MVP candidate, in my opinion. I think residual guilt from not picking Kobe in the past has led many sports writers to choose Kobe this year. Are you kidding me? The Lakers may have ended up with the number one seed in the West, but they're only 7 games ahead of eighth- place Denver. Don't tell me winning seven more games is significant- especially when you have Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. Sticking with that Denver reference for a moment, Allen Iverson is having arguably his best season ever (better FG% than his MVP season in '01). Kobe's stats are pretty much on par with Ivo's (same FG%, they're #2 and #3 in scoring, Iverson get the same number of assists that Kobe gets rebounds, etc.), yet Iverson doesn't even get a fleeting mention in the MVP discussion. Lebron James is easily my MVP. The main argument against him is that his team isn't doing well enough. Well, let's see. The Cavs are #4 in the East with a very respectable 45-37 record. That should be enough to satisfy the "he has to be on a winning team" crowd. LeBron is having Big O numbers, while shooting 48% from the field and leading the league in points. The Cavs lead the league in 4th quarter comebacks solely because LeBron leads the league in 4th quarter points. He's improved his jumper and has single-handedly defeated a lot of competitive teams in the final minutes of games (often on national television too). LeBron dominates the game from beginning to end, fills up the stat sheet, and wins games for a team with sub-par talent. At least say Chris Paul, BL!
BL: See why's it got to be that way? Maybe I feel an obligation to Kobe, but not because he was the best player on a mediocre team two years ago…because he's the best player on the team with the best record in the west right now! And I don't agree that 45 wins is respectable when I feel like they should be getting way more. LeBron would be my #3 pick for MVP. For the explanation of my selections, check out the feature about MVPs earlier in the column.
Anyways, let's get to the order of the day...the NBA Playoffs! No upsets in the Western Conference this year, as seeding didn't matter, other than for home court advantage. Give us your thoughts on the great parity in the Western Conference right now? Is this good for the NBA to have so many really good teams in the same Conference, vying for less playoffs spots than there are good teams?
MJ: It's terrible for the NBA. However, due to the tradition of the East vs. West rivalry, I don't think David Stern should be trying to come up with ways to artificially remedy this problem. Taking the top sixteen seeds regardless of conference would be an insult to the East, as the fans would show their displeasure by not watching as many games. I'm a New Yorker, and although we're not all Knicks fans, we're more likely to support and watch Eastern conference teams. I think all the big mid-season trades will start to show their true value next season. I expect things to settle down then, as newfound team chemistry will allow the more talented teams (L.A., Dallas) to dominate and establish some order.
BL: You've got to be kidding…an insult to the East? The EAST is an insult to the EAST! Sheesh…I certainly respect your opinions, but the east is a parody of itself anyways. I'm certainly thankful that you aren't a Knicks fan. Haven't they suffered enough?!
And Golden State...all that defense that they didn't play really paid off, as now they'll have to wait another year to try to get back in. Is there anything that Golden State can do next year to punch and validate their own airline ticket to get back into the playoffs?
MJ: Golden State is always stuck fighting for the eighth spot for a reason. They're not that good. Sure they're setting attendance records and moving money, but as you pointed out, they have no D. I blame Nellie, personally. He needs to get on his team for their defensive lapses. I recall the last Warriors-Denver game of the regular season. Denver was down by 15 in the first quarter, but had taken the lead within four minutes! Denver's not great at defense either, but A.I. gets to the line and knows how to play the passing lanes. Carmelo can score down low (when inspired) and Marcus Camby is a beast. Golden State lacks this kind of talent. They have fantastic scorers like Ellis and Jackson, but no note-worthy defensive presence. Expect Don Nelson to lose his job and Baron Davis to get traded. Biedrins can play any style, so he's a keeper.
BL: Man I love Biedrins. I don't understand why Biedrins doesn't get more pub, because I feel like he is at least a top 10 center in the league right now.
Really quick touch on the (L)Eastern Conference, Mitch, and I'll get you out of here. Do you think there are any dark horses in the East? I mean, I'm not talking like...the Hawks because there is no way that the ATL is getting out of the first round. But...Raptors? Magic? Anybody but the Celtics and the Pistons? And you can't convince me to seriously consider the Cavaliers...
MJ: LeBron is good enough to beat two teams at once. He crushed the Pistons last year, and he wasn't nearly as good as he is now. On a given night, he can upset any team. With that being said, the Celtics are coming out on top this year in the East. They're the best defensive team in the league and they boast three of the best offensive players of the last decade. They've got everything you need to win it all; stars, clutch shooters, 3-pt. shooters, veterans and defenders. No upsets here.]
BL: Back to LeBron with you. Always LeBron with you. It's no wonder Stevenson said he was overrated. It's because people are all in his jock. Great player, but jeez…carrying his team to even the Eastern Conference finals can't happen. I have bet at least 10 sodas tonight at work over the Wizards series, so now the WIZARDS must prevail! But you're right about the Celtics…I don't think anyone will be a real challenge to them.
But anyhow, you are the type of feller that follows this league very closely. So...with both Jim Boylan and Larry Krystowiak both being let go this week as the coaches of the Chicago Bulls and the Milwaukee Bucks, respectfully, which direction do you see either organization going in, coaching-wise? Surely the next season has to be better than this season. I mean...it HAS to be, right?
MJ: Run from Isiah! That's all the Bucks need to do if they want to be competitive in the lowly East next year. They have tons of talent. They just need a coach that will help support the growth of guys like Bogut and Jianlian. Seriously, Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut, Desmond Mason, Charlie Villanueva, Mo Williams, Yi Jianlian. Looks great on paper, doesn't it? Marc Jackson may get the coaching spot in New York, so I expect a resurgence there. Larry Brown's not doing anything. I'm pretty sure he could help out the now-struggling Bulls. The only problem is Ben Gordon. He's too good to not start, yet the Bulls just can't win when he does start. Trading him might be the key to the Bulls' future.
BL: Every team should stay as far away from Isiah as possible. But I don't think he'll be free to coach next year anyways. Walsh has probably assigned him some duties, like sweeping and mopping the floor, washing dishes, helping with concessions, meet and greets at empty events…he couldn't POSSIBLY screw those up. Could he? COULD HE?!?!?!?!
That'll be all this week. I'd like to thank Mitch Joseph aka thesonicvision for taking time out of his rich and luxurious lifestyle to be with us on the Q&A this week. And last thoughts, parting words, or plugs that you'd like to get out in the open right now?
MJ: Martin Luther King Jr. famously said, "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." It would be an injustice for readers in the New York area who have info about foreclosed homes to not visit rickleinc.com. BL, it's been real. Hopefully I'll be invited again in the future. Adios.
BL: Thanks again, and we'll be back next week with another great forum guest on the BeatDown Q&A.
Enough Already! End the Damn Column!
That's all for this week. Next week, we'll catch up on some of the news, as the column ran a tad long due to the predictions and MVP stuff. See you next week, where we'll continue with playoff talk, and another BeatDown Q&A!
