The Full Court Press: First Round Predictions
Posted by Brandon Crow on 04.24.2008
Will the Lakers crush the Nuggets? Will the Mavs stumble and crumble yet again? Will there be any surprise upsets in the East? Check out my predictions for the first round of the NBA playoffs.
So, it may be bad form to break from the format of my column after just one column, but this is the NBA playoffs, damn it, and I think it deserves a slightly different treatment. So, instead of building a "court case," I'll just offer my personal predictions for the first round.
I originally posted these predictions to the sports forum on Sunday, but I figured I'd put them out to the world now. Let's start with the East, then move West.
EAST:
Boston Celtics V Atlanta Hawks: This will be a quick series. At least it better be. Even though the "lowly" Hawks seemed to gel a bit and make a little push towards the end of the regular season, they just don't have the talent or experience required to beat the Celtics. Sadly, but truthfully, the Hawks don't even have the talent and experience to even push or scare the Celtics.
Boston's "Big 3" of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce will just overwhelm and crush the Hawks. There is no doubt, no suspense, no hope in this series. Looking at Atlanta's situation, I'm reminded of the great quote from "Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" when Aragorn and company run into "the riders" in the Riddermark while in search of their two hobbit friends. The Riders' leader, Eomer, having just come from an all-out massacre of the orcs and urak-hai that had kidnapped Merry and Pippin, frankly tells Aragorn to look for their friends, but, "do not trust to hope. It is forsaken in these lands." In this case, "these lands" would be "the Garden."
Celtics win, 4-0.
Detroit PistonsV Philadelphia 76ers: This could be a better and more competitive series than most people believe or expect. The 76ers have been performing well and playing even better together as a team. They have their own version of the "Big 3"…okay, the "Medium 3," but they do have a solid core of dependable players in Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert. And that Calvin Booth ain't no slouch either.
Last year, I wanted to call the upset for the Warriors over Dallas. I didn't. I wholly thought it possible, but I just didn't think we would see it. This year, if there was a big upset that I'd like to call, and could see happening, it would be in this Pistons/Sixers series. However, as much as I think it could realistically happen, I just don't think we'll see it.
In the end, I think the Pistons are still a better, more talented, more playoff experienced team. The Sixers haven't won much in the playoffs since 2001 when they went to the Finals only to be crushed by the Lakers. Though the Sixers will make all games competitive, Detroit's defense will become too much and will simply slowly, but surely, suffocate the Sixers down the line.
Pistons win, 4-1.
Orlando Magic V Toronto Raptors: Toronto surprises me perennially with their appearance in the playoffs. That Chris Bosh must really be something because off the top of my head, that's all I can think of when the Raptors come to mind. What else, who else does that team have? The Raptors made it into the playoffs last year, played New Jersey in the first round (if I recall correctly), and were actually seeded higher than the Nets. But I called the Nets to stage the small upset because I just didn't believe the Raptors had it in them to go beyond the first round. The same is true this year.
The Magic is primed to make a name for themselves again for the first time since Shaq left back in 1996. The Magic have a stable, solid center in Dwight Howard, and their free agent signing from last summer Rashard Lewis has chipped in good help. Most surprising of all, their "go to guy" has been a guy they never expected to be the go to guy, Hedo Torkoglu. That's a well-rounded group of consistent players. They will deliver their share on any given night. The Magic just have too much for the Raptor to handle.
Magic wins, 4-1.
Cleveland Cavaliers V Washington Wizards: This is absolute WAR! I don't think these two teams like each other; I may even go as far as to ponder that the players involved may not respect each other. There seems to be some ill feelings involved, perhaps more so on the Wizards' end, seeing as they've been eliminated twice by the Cavs in the last two years. The Wizards will, however, be healthy for the first time, and they do have a chip on their shoulder. Also, let's not underestimate the potent fact that two of the Wizards' three big stars are playing for new contracts…
This will be the year to test the Cavs insofar as the Wizards are concerned. The last two years, the Cavs have gotten a bit of a pass because Washington hasn't been healthy or at full force. Having said that, I think I still must give the edge to Cleveland because, as a team, they are coming off the immense success of making it to the Finals last year. There's confidence there, there's pride there. And of course, there's LeBron there. I said it last year, and I'll say it again this year. You cannot discount LeBron James. You cannot discount his drive and his ability to will his team to win.
I look for this series to go to the wire.
Cavaliers win, 4-3.
WEST:
Los Angeles Lakers V Denver Nuggets: The Lakers surprising season success has its fans rocking. Denver eeked into the playoffs, but by beating the teams they needed to be down the stretch. They staved off the Warriors push, twice, in head to head games, I believe, that would have catapulted the Warriors into the playoffs had the Nuggets not taken care of business.
And it is that phrase that defines this series. The Lakers should win. The Lakers were 3-0 against the Nuggets this season, and that was all done before the acquisition of Paul Gasol. But the Lakers will certainly have to "take care of business." If they play like the Lakers team after freshly acquiring Paul, they will crush the Nuggets and send Nuggets players fishing for the summer. If they don't take care of business, they may let the Nuggets linger too long, sapping valuable energy from the next round.
I also look for the Lakers to get a big boost of energy and drive from the announcement that Kobe Bryant won the league's MVP award…finally. About damn time, writers in the league!!
Having said that, it's always difficult to play at Denver, what with the thin air and all. I say the Lakes handle their business but give one to the Nuggets due to altitude (not attitude) adjustment.
Lakers win, 4-1.
New Orleans Hornets V Dallas Mavericks: This is going to be one hell of a series. Outside of the Lakers/Nuggets contests (because I'm a die-hard Lakers fan), I'll be watching this one. If last night's game wasn't an indication of what the series will be like, I don't know what would. The Hornets have been the surprise team of the season, no doubt. Coming down to the last two games of the year, they still had a shot at winning the West. That's impressive for a little-known team with little-known players. Even the "now renowned" Chris Paul didn't really have a name in the league until after All Star break this year. But they are playing extremely well, at a very high level, and coach Byron Scott has them ready to run.
The Mavericks…well, really, what is there to say about the Mavs? They are so desperate to win after the major blunders in the last two years that they went and made another blunder. They traded away a young, dynamic point guard for an aged one. No disrespect for Jason Kidd. The man can still play and he'll be in the Hall of Fame. But this was a trade Dallas didn't need to make, and Kidd isn't the right man to push Dallas over their mental and physical hurdle.
Dallas gave away the 2006 Finals to the Heat after being up 2-0. They'll never live that down. And then, last year, just when you think they had everything to prove, they got ousted by the upset of upsets. Number one seed Mavs got booted and run off the court by the number eight seed, barely snuck into the playoffs, Warriors.
The Mavs are soft, plain and simple. Both mentally and physically, they are soft and cannot compete. They don't show up when they need to. They are like the Sacramento Kings in the late 90s, early 2000s. They're good, they contend annually, but when push came to shove, they fall part. Ask the Lakers about that one. If Dallas wanted to win, wanted to get mentally and physically tougher in the playoffs, they should have pulled the trigger on Shaq, not Kidd.
Hornets win, 4-2.
San Antonio Spurs V Phoenix Suns: I'll hand it to both teams. Just when I thought I could care less about these two teams playing again, they go and light it up and make things new. The new-look Suns with the Big Shaqtus may not have been much better in the regular season, but Shaq, even limited as he is these days, will still be a presence and a help in the playoffs. Especially against teams like the Spurs that have a good big man. This series will be tighter and more hotly contested than last year's, and that's regardless of the funny suspensions.
While the Suns are better equipped for the playoffs than a year ago, the Spurs are still the champs. They've been the champs before, and have quite an impressive resume to fall back on. They are perennial contenders and almost perennial champions. In case folks have forgotten, the Spurs won titles in 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007. The road to the championship this season still goes through San Antonio, if not literally, than figuratively. Until someone knocks them out…
I think the Spurs will win this series. Too much experience, grit and fundamentals. The only way the Suns come out is if they run like they did last year, tire out the Spurs, and then pound inside to Shaq. They'll have to exercise that strategy to a tee if they want to see the second round.
Spurs win 4-3.
Utah Jazz V Houston Rockets: This should also be a supremely competitive series. How can numbers 4 and 5 not be? Additionally, even though the Jazz are ranked higher, as number 4, it's actually the Rockets, at number 5 who have the home court advantage! Yeah, figure that one out… The Rockets have outperformed all expectations this year. They even went on that 22 game winning streak, much of it without Yao. That's impressive. However, I think the Rockets have played beyond their talent and beyond their capabilities in that run. They are not that good of a team. Just look at how they ended their season, after the streak was snapped.
Utah is a tough, gritty, hard-pounding team that has been tested in the playoffs. Last year, they went to the Western Conference finals and lost to the Spurs, which is no shame. They're looking to prove themselves this year, and unfortunately for the Rockets, their heads are on the chopping block first. Deron Willliams, Carlos Boozer and "AK 47" will be too much for the Rockets to handle.
