The Full Court Press 6.02.08: NBA Finals Predictions

Posted by Brandon Crow on 06.02.2008

It's a rivalry of the ages, for the ages! Lakers and Celtics face off again! How do they match up? Who will win?

With the Western and Eastern Conference champions now decided, NBA fans, and even casual fans are locked in and keyed up for the NBA Finals to begin. On Thursday, June 5th, an old, epic battle will be renewed. On June 5th, an ancient but storied rivalry will bloom afresh with new chapters and footnotes.

Everyone thought the Celtics would be in the Finals, but the Celtics sure did their best to snatch defeat from the jaws of fated victory during the quarter and semi-finals of the East. They had to go seven games against both the Atlanta Hawks (who won almost 30 games less than Boston during the season), and the Cleveland Cavalier (a team, that despite the "blockbuster" trade a few months back, still remains only LeBron and then everyone else). On the way to the Finals, the Boston Celtics nearly destroyed completely their "championship mystique."

On the other coast, no one (and if anyone claims they predicted it, they're lying more Richard Nixon, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney combined) even came close to imagining the Los Angeles Lakers would be here. At the beginning of the season, I did a NBA Roundtable with some of the other sports zone writers where we had to state which eight teams would make the playoffs from each conference. I almost left the Lakers off of that list entirely.

And so it is, the Lakers and the Celtics--again! And I can't wait! I grew up feasting on their heated rivalry during the 80's!

Match-Ups:

Point Guard: Derek Fisher V Rajon Rondo. I'm giving the distinct advantage to the Lakers on this one. "Fish" will body and muscle Rondo every chance possible. Body shots not only hurt, but they drain energy very swiftly. I look for physical play from Fisher as a way to punish Rondo and pound him into semi-effectiveness. And if for some reason, Rondo has an extremely good day and runs around Fish, the Lakers have back up point guard Jordan Farmar, who is more than up to the task of handling Rondo's speed. If Farmar held his own against Tony Parker, he'll do more than that against Rondo.

Off Guard: This match up should be Kobe Bryant facing off against Ray Allen. But I think we all know this match up won't happen. Kobe will be matched against Paul Pierce. Phil Jackson may start with Ray-Ray V Kobe, but if Pierce starts to go off on Vladamir Radmonovic or Luke Walton, Kobe will switch over.

Assuming the Kobe V Pierce match up, I give the contest to the Lakers. There's simply no stopping Kobe Bryant. The Spurs tried to zone him out and force him into help defense or pull-up jump shots. And though the defensive scheme did keep Kobe from spectacular dunks and free throws, it didn't slow down his scoring. No one can even come close to touching Kobe Bryant right now. It's his time, plain and simple. He's feeling his game and his greatness. Kobe will get his. However, Kobe CAN lock down Pierce. Kobe gets little credit for his defense. His man-to-man, on-the-ball defense is phenomenal. I look for Kobe to stop, if not slow Pierce. And so far, it's Pierce that's catapulted the Celtics.

Small Forward: Again, the match up should be Pierce V Vlad Rad, but with the switch, it'll end up Vlade on Ray Allen. I'll give a small edge to Allen on this contest because he's Ray Allen, and though Radmonovic's defense has picked up somewhat, he's still a European defensive player, and we all know what that means. But don't look for Ray-Ray to go off. Vlade will work harder on D just so he can stay on the floor. We all know Jackson's "no D, no play" philosophy. Beyond Vlade, the Lakers also have Luke Walton, as well as Ronny Turiaf (or even Lamar, depending on match ups) that can switch over to Allen. The point here is, Allen will get some points because he's a talented player, but he won't be getting them in spot-up, wide-open jumpers. The Lakers are deep and versatile enough to give Allen very different looks.

Power Forward: Kevin Garnett V Lamar Odom. Alright, let's not even pretend here. This match up definitely goes to KG. However, I would say, don't completely overlook Odom. If he keeps his head in the game and his mentality in check, he can do a decent job on Garnett. There's simply no stopping KG, but I think Lamar has blossomed enough over this past season, especially during the playoffs, to do a decent job on KG. What I'm most concerned about regarding Lamar isn't his defense on KG. I'm concerned that he'll expend too much energy and effort doing that decent defensive job that his offensive will hurt. The Lakers will need Gasol and Kobe for sure, but also Fish and a few other players to step up and score.

Center: Pau Gasol V Kendrick Perkins. This goes to the Lakers. Perkins is a big boy and he's improving quickly. However, Gasol is an All-Star. Gasol's downside is that he's a lot smaller (size, not height) than Perkins. He'll get pushed around a bit and won't get the usual easy shots right under the rim. However, Gasol also has an outside game. If the Lakers were smart, they' run high picks with Gasol and draw Perkins out. The key is to get Gasol off early and to ensure he hits his 12-15 footers. Then, Perkins will have his work cut out for him. Turiaf can also come in and spell Gasol some physicality. Perkins is taller than Ronny, but we've seen Ronny neutralize height before--he did good work on Duncan, he took it Boozer/Kirilenko/Okur when he was given time, and he measured up against Martin/Camby pretty well also.

The Bench: This advantages the Lakers so long as their role players don't fade away on the opponent's court like they did in Game 3 against San Antonio. The Celtics essentially have James Posey and Eddie House. That's not exactly impressive. The Lakers have younger, quicker, more athletic players. When it comes down to crunch time, the Lakers bench will get to the loose balls the aging and tired Celtics won't be able to track down.

I see the Celtics bench in much the same light as the Spurs bench. Some decent players, but old and working on tired legs.

Final Judgment: I'll qualify what I'm about to say so people don't think I'm just being a homer. If the Lakers play the game at the level I know they're capable of, with the same sense of urgency and purpose we saw in the three previous rounds, I predict the Lakers win it in 5 games. If not, and they flounder somewhat, I say the Lakers in 7 games. Either way, the championship is coming to Los Angeles.