The Three Point Play 06.03.08: 2008 NBA Finals Preview, Part 1
Posted by Blake Lovell on 06.03.2008
We are only a couple days away from the start of the NBA Finals, so it's time to take a look at the matchups that will impact the series. In part one of the three part preview, the backcourt is the focus, as the backcourt play of both teams is examined closely. It's all inside this special NBA Finals Preview edition of the Three Point Play!
Hello everyone, and welcome to a special NBA Finals Preview edition of the Three Point Play, right here on 411Mania! We are only days away from Game 1 of the 2008 NBA Finals, so let's jump right into what you need to know heading into this series. In this edition, we'll look specifically at the backcourt play for both teams, as we examine the point guard and shooting guard positions. Although these guys may not particularly guard each other, we are still going to examine who has the best player at each position on the floor.
1. Point Guard - Derek Fisher (LA) vs. Rajon Rondo (BOS)
We'll start things off with the matchup at the point guard position. Although some people may feel this is a no-brainer as to who has the advantage, it's an interesting matchup overall.
Derek Fisher has had a big postseason for the Lakers, and it seems like this guy has been in the league for 20 years. He's a veteran, and has seen it all. Most importantly, he's got the veteran leadership that can lead the Lakers over the top in this series. Fisher isn't always going to be the most athletic guy on the floor by any means, but he's one of the more consistent point guards in the league, even though he's not as young as the other star point guards in the NBA. He's sort of got the Horry-factor to him to, as he's the guy that will always hit the big shot if he's put in that situation. We all remember the big shot he hit against the Spurs several years ago with only tenths of a second left on the clock. He's made clutch shots for the Lakers so far this postseason, and I'd expect if he's put in that type of situation again here in the 2008 Finals, he'll come through again.
As for Rondo, he's surpassed my expectations for him so far this season. I think at times he's unfairly criticized by people, as they seem to claim he's really not that good of a player, but that the only reason he's successful is because he's surrounded by three of the better players in the league. I don't buy into that. He's still a good player, much better than I thought he'd ever be. You can't penalize a guy for being on a talented team. And Rondo has been able to get the ball to the best players, and that is why the Celtics have been successful during the regular season and postseason. One of Rondo's strengths is his athleticism. The point guard position in the NBA is a position in which you've got to be fairly athletic to survive. He's been able to get the ball into the paint a lot for the Celtics, which is why Allen and Pierce have been able to get open shots on the perimeter. He usually gets the ball to the right man, and has been effective coming off the pick and roll. However, Rondo's major weakness is his shot. He's had quite a few opportunities to make open shots throughout the postseason, but hasn't particularly been that great shooting the ball from outside 15 feet. The Pistons seemed to relax and play off of him defensively, because they didn't think he was any type of threat from the outside. I would expect the Lakers to do something like in this series, to allow Fisher to help off on Garnett and Pierce at times when they get the ball in the paint. But when Rondo is hitting shots, it provides an explosive offensive combination for the Celtics.
ADVANTAGE: Lakers. Although Rondo has just as many weapons to give the ball to as Fisher, Fisher has the better overall game at this point. Fisher is deadly from three point land, but also has the ability to get in the lane and create shots. Fisher has the experience, and has the rings to prove it. Rondo can still have a good series, but Fisher is the better player overall, and will have the bigger impact on this series with his clutch shooting.
2. Shooting Guard - Kobe Bryant (LA) vs. Ray Allen (BOS)
So there's really probably no way to convince you that Allen has the advantage here, right? Just keep reading anyways, ok?
Everything that the Lakers do, say, or think about starts with Kobe Bryant. He is the face of the franchise, what makes them go, and the MVP of the league. And to throw in a pro wrestling reference, as the Four Horsemen use to say back in their heyday,"Whether you like it or not, learn to love it, because it's the best thing goin' today." That's what Kobe is. Whether you like him or not, and I've made it a note in the past that I'm not his biggest fan, he's still the best player in the league. He had an unbelievable regular season, and is having an even bigger postseason. Kobe is averaging 31.9 points per game in the playoffs, and has really scored at will against all three teams the Lakers have faced so far in the postseason. He's also distributed the ball extremely well, averaging close to six assists per game. And as we learned in the first game of the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs, it may just be a matter of Kobe deciding when to take over. The Lakers were down 65-45 in the third quarter of Game 1, when Kobe stepped in and led the Lakers to a miraculous comeback, which was probably the turning point of the series even though it was only the first game. He absolutely scored any time he wanted to, even against one of the better defenders in the league, Bruce Bowen. Kobe's not going to see that type of defensive stopper in the Finals, no matter who guards him.
On the Boston side, Ray Allen has played better of late. He was nowhere to be found early on in the postseason, but was an essential reason as to why the Celtics knocked off the Pistons and advanced to the NBA Finals. Allen got his game going, and found his shot again. He's always been one of the best shooters in the entire league, so it was only a matter of time before he began playing at a high level again. What's important for Allen, and for any other great shooter for that matter, is to hit shots early. Great shooters find a way to get in a rhythm, and it usually starts with them getting a good start in a game, which carries over through the rest of the game. That's what he's been able to do lately, which is why he's back into good shooting form. That's what he'll have to do against the Lakers in the Finals. He's got to hit his open shots early, so it'll help him build up his confidence. The Celtics can't afford for him to struggle, as they're going to need all the offense they can get to counter an explosive Laker attack. The Celtics will need the big three in every game of the series. They can't only have one or two here and there. Pierce and Garnett have been consistent, so Allen will be the only question mark heading into the Finals.
ADVANTAGE: Lakers. It's going to be an extremely difficult task for the Celtics to stop Kobe. The Celtics do have the best defense statistically in the league, so it'll be interesting to see how Doc Rivers and his staff approach this challenge. There are some clear matchup problems at all the positions. Allen could likely be forced to guard Kobe a lot, even though some feel Pierce may be the better choice for most of the game. If Pierce guards Kobe, then Allen is left with who? It's a difficult spot either way you look at it for the Celtics defense. The Lakers get the nod at the shooting guard position, because they are the one with Kobe.
3. Backcourt Bench - Vujacic and Farmar (LA) vs. Cassell and House (BOS)
Depth has played a large role in deciding who has advanced in the postseason. With such a grueling postseason schedule, the team with the fresher legs and higher energy will probably have more success than a team that only goes seven deep in the rotation.
For the Lakers, Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar have been key contributors on both ends of the floor all season, and they are continuing that trend in the playoffs. Both guys have played well from beyond the perimeter, as they are both good shooters from three-point range. Vujacic is the leading scorer off the bench for the Lakers, averaging 8.1 points per game, and is usually gives the Lakers a spark as soon as he comes in. He's probably the most energetic guy on the entire team, as he's all over the floor when he gets in the game. This is the kind of player that is significant to any team, and the Lakers are lucky to have him. Farmar isn't so much a spark plug as he is a good defender. Farmar has good hands for a guard, as he gets in on a lot of defensive plays. He only plays around 17 minutes a game, but still provides the Lakers with a solid sub at the guard position. When Derek Fisher needs a break, Farmar always comes in and plays pretty consistently for a young player in the league. A solid backup point guard is something that teams need, because a backup has to be able to come in and protect the ball, and not allow the other teams to take advantage of turnovers.
Sam Cassell and Eddie House are the main guards off the bench for the Celtics, and both provide similar roles to that of Vujacic and Farmar. Cassell is the backup point guard for the Celtics, even though I'm not sure that was a role we expected him to play when he signed with them. I thought that Cassell would take over the starting position from Rondo, but Rondo has been consistent enough to stay in the starting lineup. Cassell hasn't seen a whole lot of work so far in the postseason, as head coach Doc Rivers hasn't really used him much at all. But when Cassell does get the nod, he's a good enough defender to cause trouble for Fisher or Farmar. Cassell is a better scorer than Rondo, so that's something else that can give the Celtics a lift. House is an excellent shooter, like his counterpart off the bench, Vujacic. However, House doesn't really provide much of an impact on the entire game. He can play well in spurts because of his ability to shot, but overall, he doesn't really get the amount of minutes to be a consistent contributor. That hasn't bothered the Celtics thus far though, although House may be expected to play a little bit more in this series.
ADVANTAGE: Lakers. The Lakers finish off their backcourt dominance with a win in this category. While Cassell is a veteran, and has seen it all in this league, Vujacic and Farmar are both playing very well right now, and I'd say Kobe has a lot to do with that. These guys get a chance to play with the best in the league, and it has lifted both of their games to a whole new level. Had Cassell and House played more minutes so far in the postseason, they would probably get the nod here. But they haven't produced at the level that the Lakers backup guard play has.
Final Backcourt Analysis
I think the Lakers have a clear advantage in the backcourt in this series. All of these matchups are pretty clear-cut, although the Rondo vs. Fisher matchup is pretty even when you look at the statistics. It's probably more of a toss-up. Rondo averages more assists and points per game, but Fisher has won championships before and has proven that he can play at a top-notch level on this large stage. Rondo hasn't played in a series of this magnitude before, so we may see a little shakiness from him. The biggest challenge for the Celtics will be stopping Kobe. Let me rephrase that. Containing Kobe. They aren't going to completely stop him, so they just have to find a way to defend them as best as they can. The Celtics need a big series from Allen and Cassell. I would expect Cassell to play more in this series mainly because he's been here before. Both teams have good NBA guards, but having Kobe gives one team the complete advantage. And that team is the Los Angeles Lakers.
That's all for Part One of the 2008 NBA Finals Preview here on 411Mania. Be sure to leave your comments as to what you think about the matchup in the backcourt, and how you think the series will play out. Tune in tomorrow for Part Two, as we take a look at the frontcourt situation for both teams.
