The Three Point Play 06.05.08: 2008 NBA Finals Preview, Part 3

Posted by Blake Lovell on 06.05.2008

The Three Point Play's three part Finals preview concludes, as several intangible categories are looked at for each team. The coaching, defense, and X-factors are all the subject of discussion in this edition. Also, the entire preview is analyzed, and a prediction is made! It's all inside!



Hello once again ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the third installment of the Three Point Play's special series, a preview of the 2008 NBA Finals. The action begins tonight, as Game 1 takes place in Boston. In the final edition of the Finals preview, we will take a look at the intangibles for each team heading into this series.

1. Coaching

Ok, so maybe this isn't a necessary category. We all know who's going to win this one, but let's look at each coach's performance this season.

After suffering a very forgettable season last year, Doc Rivers now has led the Boston Celtics to the NBA Finals for the first time in 21 years. Rivers greatly benefited from the roster moves made by Danny Ainge in the off-season, and now is four games away from cementing himself as a very good coach. While some people may point squarely to the fact that he has all the talent in the world, and any coach could win with the big three he currently has. That's not the case at all. It's not easy for a professional coach to be able to effectively get a team to buy into the system. There were questions at the beginning of the season as to whether Rivers would be able to satisfy Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett by getting them enough touches on the ball. This hasn't been a problem at all, as all of these guys, including Rivers, are in it for one primary reason. And that is to win a championship. Rivers has done a tremendous job of helping Rajon Rondo elevate his game to a whole new level, as he's ran the point guard position much better than anyone would have expected. The coaching style of Rivers is also one that seems to be player-friendly in the league, as he doesn't seem like the type to completely verbally abuse a player after they do something wrong. He's seems to be more of a hands-on coach, and helps the players learn from each mistake. It's hard to imagine him having a team this good in the future, but if all the pieces stay in Boston, it could very well happen again next year. While all the players deserve credit for getting to this point, look no further than the head coach to see where it all began. Rivers has established himself as a good coach in this league, and is four wins away from being a championship coach.

And then there's Phil Jackson. He doesn't need to prove anything. He's already a championship coach, and as we've said before, he's running out of fingers to his NBA championship rings on. It's hard to call Jackson anything but one of the greatest coaches to ever coach the game of basketball. Sure, the naysayers will make reference to the fact that he's had stars on his teams, and really hasn't had to do anything. Yes, he's had Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, and Shaquille O'Neal. But aside from some other coaches who just let the star player run the show, Jackson has a different approach. He's still the leader on the team, and always will be. This year, he's challenged Kobe to make his teammates better, and he's done just that. That's why they are playing for the championship right now and not sitting at home. Jackson's ability to get so much production out of his bench is also something great in and of itself. Who was Sasha Vujacic before he started playing for the Lakers? He may have been good, but Jackson has been able to put him in the right situations in a game, and that's what's made him such a key player for the Lakers. You can poke fun at Jackson's methods, such as his Zen-like techniques he uses in the locker room and all that stuff, but it obviously works. He has a plan and he sticks to it. For example, look back to some of the games of the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs. The Lakers would sometimes have a double-digit deficit in key parts of the game, but yet Kobe was seen on the bench. Some coaches would get the urge to go against their plan, and just mess the substitution pattern all up by sending the star back in. Not Phil Jackson. He stuck to his substitution methods, and it never cost the Lakers. Everything ended up fine. It's as if he's working with magic sometimes. He turns average players into good players. Everyone feels as though they are a part of the team, and that's what makes a team successful. When everyone wants to give up their personal egos for the team. That has happened in L.A. this year, and that's the reason they're playing for another NBA crown.

ADVANTAGE: Lakers. This was an inevitable decision here. Jackson is one of the greatest coaches of all-time, in any sport. He has had the benefit of having tremendous talents on his team, but you can't blame a guy for that. There's one thing that will be certain in this series, and one thing only. Phil Jackson will not get out coached. It's nothing against Rivers, but it just don't happen. Period.

2. Defense

This isn't exactly an "intangible" category, but it's something we need to take a look at it, as it's going to determine the outcome of this series.

The matchups will be what makes this such an interesting part of the game. It's really hard to know right now who will match up with who. I would expect that we'll see some bench guys that don't normally play a lot get more minutes in this series, because there are some trouble areas for both teams defensively. The biggest question of all is, who's gonna guard Kobe? Let's take a look at the possible candidates. Ray Allen is the shooting guard for the Celtics, and Kobe is the shooting guard for the Lakers. It would seem fitting that they guard each other, right? Well not so fast. While Allen is a good player, and only gives up about an inch or two in height to Kobe, he's not the type of defender that can give Kobe trouble. Not many people can give Kobe trouble anyways, but hard-nosed guys like Bruce Bowen and Raja Bell are the type of players that give him the most trouble. The really only other option in the starting lineup for the Celtics is Paul Pierce. Pierce matches Kobe in height pretty much, and probably has the defensive ability to at least keep up with him. The only problem with this though is that Pierce could easily get in foul trouble. Not because he's prone to fouling, but because Kobe somehow manages to shoot an enormous amount of free throws every game. He'll get calls that no one else gets because he's the MVP. That's how it goes. If Pierce can stay out of foul trouble, he's probably the best option in my opinion. James Posey is a good defender coming off the bench, and I would expect Rivers to get him some more minutes in this series just so he can guard Kobe at times.

The other big question is who guards Pierce? Kobe's the likely candidate at this point in time, as there doesn't seem to be many other workable options for the Lakers. But if that's the case, the Lakers have trouble finding someone to constantly guard Ray Allen. Needless to say, this can get a little confusing for both teams. The Lakers could go several different ways with this. If Lamar Odom guards KG, you would then expect Gasol vs. Perkins. The 4 position then becomes a problem area for the Lakers, as Radmanovic gets the start there. However, it seems as though the guards off the bench for the Lakers, like Sasha Vujacic and Jordan Farmar will get more minutes than expected, because they'll have to account for some mismatches in the backcourt, and one of them may need to guard Allen. To start things off, I would expect Kobe to guard Pierce, or possibly Odom in a surprise. Kobe vs. Pierce seems like the matchup that will happen though. As long as foul trouble doesn't play a factor, it should be a great matchup to watch.

ADVANTAGE: Celtics. Overall, the Celtics are the better defensive team. They were the best defense in the league in this season, and have probably been one of the best defensive teams this postseason. Guarding Kobe will be the ultimate task for the Celtics, but even though they will have trouble there, they should be fairly consistent defensively at the other positions. Garnett and Perkins will bring the shot-blocking presence inside for Boston, and should be able to alter some of Kobe's shots when he gets into the lane. If Rondo can keep Fisher from getting to the paint and creating open shots for his teammates, it will go a long way in deciding a winner in this series.

3. Potential X-Factors

Both teams have potential X-factors that can make a difference. We aren't gonna call any of the stars X-factors, so we'll look at some lesser role guys who can make an impact on this series.

For Los Angeles, there seem to be two guys who can be the potential X-factors in this series. The first is Derek Fisher, who as we've said in the previous previews, has been here before and knows what to expect. Fisher is still playing well despite the fact that the league is getting younger and younger at the point guard position. He has a good matchup against Rondo. Fisher has been known to hit the big clutch shot in the final moments of playoff games, so it would not surprise me if he wins a game for the Lakers in the series. He's become one of the better shooters at his position, and should be able to use his veteran experience to outsmart the younger Rondo at times. The other possibly impact player for the Lakers is Sasha Vujacic. I don't know what it is about the guy, but I enjoy watching him play when he's on the floor. He bring such a high energy level, and is so enthusiastic for his team. He's also an excellent outside shooter for the Lakers, can bring them out of a slump if they ever find it difficult to score, which may happen in this series given the Celtics stingy defense. It would seem to me that Vujacic will get a lot of chances to play, as Phil Jackson utilizes his bench better than anyone in the league. Vujacic is a name you don't want to forget heading into the Finals, as he's sure to provide the Lakers with a big spurt somewhere along the line.

The Celtics also have several guys who can be the difference against the Lakers. To me, Kendrick Perkins is a guy that can completely change the course of the series if he can play well inside. His physical style is going to give Gasol trouble on the inside, and he could really provide the Celtics with an edge in the rebounding category. He's got to be able to hit a jumpshot every now and then, as Gasol will have the height advantage on him (assuming Gasol is who guards him). I think Perkins has to try and establish position inside early on in Game 1, and take advantage of his physical strength. Another guy who can be an impact player is James Posey. As we talked about in the defense section, he may get the nod to guard Kobe when he comes in. Posey is also a good outside shooter, and could be a welcoming addition to the Celtics offense if Ray Allen struggles. He'll get more time on the floor this go-around, and if he continues to bring the same type of hard play he's brought in some of the games thus far in the playoffs, he could make a big difference.

ADVANTAGE: Lakers. I would really like to call this a "push," but I'm not going to go that route. It seems like Fisher is going to have a big series. I've just got a feeling he's going to be big for the Lakers. And I also think Vujacic can contribute double-digits on any given night. Perkins and Posey can make a definite impact any time, but I think Fisher is the guy who makes the most impact with a lesser expected role.

The Final Analysis and Prediction

And it's all come down to this. We are at the end of the third and final preview, and it's time to assess what we've learned.

- The Lakers have an advantage in the backcourt, as Kobe cancels pretty much everybody else out.
- The Fisher-Rondo matchup is going to be much more important than people think.
- The Celtics are better overall in the frontcourt with Pierce and Garnett being the anchors of the team.
- Phil Jackson is not going to get out coached.
- The defensive matchups for both teams are going to be very, very interesting.
- I am not a Lakers fan by any stretch, but they took the nine categories we discussed by a score of 6-3.

When all is said and done, Phil Jackson will add another ring to his collection, as the Los Angeles Lakers will beat the Boston Celtics in six games. The MVP? #24 himself, Kobe Bryant.

That's all for the Three Point Play 2008 NBA Finals Preview. Thank you for joining me throughout the week for these previews, as I hope you enjoyed them. Be sure to check out 411's NBA Finals Roundtable, where the guys who know best give their predictions on how the series will shake out. But now it's time to get the action started tonight on ABC. Celtics vs. Lakers!