Points in the Paint 10.28.0: Opening Day Edition

Posted by Rob Bonnette on 10.28.2008

I preview the East (again)!

Hello there everyone, and welcome to Points in the Paint. The season starts today, so it's preview time! Today I do the East, and in a few days, I go West. Enjoy!

THE EAST

Overview: The Celtics should win it. Yes, they lost James Posey, and that could come back to bite them in the playoffs. But let's not forget that they have a rapidly improving Rajon Rondo at the point and still have guys like Kendrick Perkins and Glenn Davis to bang down low. And they can always get a PJ Brown-like player later on to help out on the cheap. The main rivals for their throne are Cleveland and Philadelphia, while Detroit, Orlando and Toronto should also do well and finish with good records. But they've all got killer weaknesses that would doom them in a seven game series. Detroit, as I'll explain later, has a star power problem. But what of the others? Here's what I think:

Cleveland: They do have Lebron, and they've upgraded at point guard by adding Mo Williams. They still have Ilgausksas at center, even though it seems like they have no idea that how to use him best. Wally Szczerbiak is still on board to hit long range shots, while Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao are there to rebound, and play defense. It's a good collection of talent, but are they any better collectively than the team that lost Boston in seven last year? I don't think so. When it comes down to it Williams and Delonte West still are not better than Rondo at point guard should they face the Celtics. And they lost Joe Smith, who brought a good subordinate offensive presence in the frontcourt. As good as Varejao and Wallace still are, when they're in the game you're playing four against five on offense. You absolutely cannot play them together, or else it will be three on five. And I think this is what will kill them. When you don't use your center properly, which is guaranteed to continue now that you have a gunner at point guard in Williams, and you power forward/ backup center can't score at all, it threatens to turn you into a jump shooting team that cannot win big in the playoffs.

Philadelphia: Easily the most improved team in the East, the Sixers now have legit low post offense in Elton Brand. Andre Iguodala should flourish now that he gets to play second banana instead of trying to impersonate a franchise player, and Andre Miller could be an All-Star this year tat the point. Their biggest problem is still outside shooting, or lack thereof. To be blunt, they don't have anyone who qualifies as a deadeye shooter, which means that in a playoff situation you pack it in and give them jumpers. And then they go home to play golf.

Orlando: They did little to change their lineup outside of adding Michael Pietrus, a good defender of swingmen (at least that's what I've been told). They're biggest issues are rebounding (other than Dwight Howard of course), and the backcourt. They're still trotting out guards that would not start for most other playoff teams and hoping for the best. And when they have to run Jameer Nelson and whoever is the shooting guard that day against Rondo and Ray Allen or Miller and Iguodala or Billups and Hamilton, they lose. Unless that changes, don't expect any more than what you're currently getting.

. Toronto: Jermaine O'Neal comes to town and will help, just not in the way they need him to. He remains one of those seven footers who isn't big on banging in the paint, which now bring the Raptors total up to three (Chris Bosh and Andrea Bargnani being the others). He does bring a good overall offensive game and will give them a second go to man; he'll also help out defensively. But the Raptors still have big deficiencies at the wing positions; their guys look fine in a vacuum, but compared to the other playoff team they come up short. Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, and Jason Kapono are all good role players; none of them should be starting but two of them will be. In a conference where you have Lebron, Caron Butler, Dwyane Wade, Shawn Marion, Paul Pierce, Rashard Lewis, etc., these guys just don't measure up.

Detroit: See below.

Now what of the rest of the conference? There are still two playoff spots up for grabs, and a mess of teams that could grab them if they get right during the season. Washington needs to somehow weather the storm of injuries again; if they can remain afloat until Gilbert Arenas gets back they can make it. Miami is relying on youth at point guard and power forward in Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers (along with Shaun Livingston), respectively; if they're up to the task, the Heat can get back in. Charlotte is counting on their good collection of players finally playing together for a full season; if that happens, they're in. You can say the same thing about Indiana, Milwaukee and Chicago. The only true doormats here are New York, new Jersey; both are bereft of the talent (Jersey) and/or chemistry (New York) that you need to make the playoffs.

Other bold East predictions:

Detroit will win the division one last time. We've been predicting their breakup for several seasons now, and I think it will finally happen in 2009. Rip Hamilton's contract runs out, and his replacement is already on the roster in the form of Rodney Stuckey. Rasheed Wallace is also a free agent in 2009, and the team will have to seriously consider whether or not they want to keep a 30-something year old with a huge salary number. But none of that matters right now; the Pistons are built for the regular season, and won't go through the ups and downs that the Cavaliers are prone to suffer from. Lebron has a retooled lineup, again, and there are going to be nights where it just doesn't work right. The Pistons all know each other and won't have any problem meshing together seamlessly for one more run. It won't help them in the playoffs, where you need a big star to carry the load, but there's no reason they won't rattle off another 50-plus wins for their swan song.

Charlotte makes the playoffs: Of the also rans I mentioned above, they have the best overall talent in my book. Raymond Felton, Emeka Okafor, Gerald Wallace, and Jason Richardson are all proven players who are individually better than a lot of their counterparts on the perennial playoff teams. I think they finally stay healthy and work together this season, and the results will show in April.

Boston wins the East: It might be easier this time around; now that they've gotten over the hump, confidence won't be the issue that it was last year at times. Their Eastern rivals are all fatally flawed in one way or another, as they were last season, and none of them will be able to win four out of seven against the Celtics when it counts.

That's it for the East. I'll have part 2 of my preview up soon. Until then.