Pelletier's Perspective 10.30.08: The Return (NBA Preview Edition)

Posted by Justin Pelletier on 10.30.2008

The season may be a day old but that doesn't mean that the Perspective can't bring to you a comprehensive preview. Join 411's Justin Pelletier as he examines every team in both the Eastern and Western Conference in the latest edition of Pelletier's Perspective.

The Perspective has been away for awhile but nothing gets the creative juices flowing like a good old-fashioned season preview edition. This time around we have the NBA tipping off and ripe with juicy storylines.

Will the Celtics big three continue to dominate? Will the return of Andrew Bynum make the Lakers as great as people expect? Is this the year LeBron James gets the help he deserves? How could Greg Oden possibly get hurt again?

Answers to all those questions and more will be answered in the latest edition of Pelletier's Perspective.


Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics - The Celtics are one injury away from falling off the map. They could sustain a prolonged injury to either Pierce or Allen but if Garnett goes down the wheels could come off. Rajon Rondo proved his worth last year and should continue to improve but Sam Cassell may not be enough back-up any more. The true key to Boston's success this season will come down to replacing James Posey. I'm not sure that Tony Allen or a group of rookies can fill that void. If Kendrick Perkins, Big Baby Davis and Leon Powe continue to progress they should be fine upfront. If not, Garnett could get run down.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - LeBron James will always be on the receiving end of criticism (no matter how ridiculous) until he wins a championship. He either shrinks in the clutch, or can't hit midrange jumpers, or doesn't play enough defense. The fact of the matter is that Danny Ferry and company have failed to surround with anything more than a D-League team thus far. This year is a little different with the addition of Mo Williams. Williams provides a solid complimentary scorer, but not the true point guard the team needs. Look for Wally Szczerbiak's expiring contract to be moved for a possible running mate for James at the deadline.

3. Philadelphia 76ers - Elton Brand was the big free agent splash this offseason and he'll play immediate dividends. His addition allows Andre Iguodala to become the team's number two (which is exactly where he belongs). Andre Miller is one of the league's most underrated point guards and he and Brand should make magic together. Samuel Dalembert needs to realize his limitations and NEVER SHOOT AGAIN. If he focuses on defense and rebounding, and Thaddeus Young continues to develop, the Sixers could give the Celts a run in the Atlantic.

4. Orlando Magic - In 2007-08 Hedo Turkoglu had a career year, Rashad Lewis gave them exactly what they needed and Dwight Howard transformed into a monster. Even with all that, Orlando wasn't a serious threat in the East. Adding Mickaël Piétrus will give them much needed athleticism but the Magic will still lack the requisite back court to contend. Jameer Nelson is a perfect back-up but a legit floor general, and added depth, will be needed for Orlando to take the next step.

5. Detroit Pistons - The Pistons are rapidly becoming old and slow. And (judging by his picture in Sports Illustrated) Richard Hamilton's beard is completely out-of-hand. Asinine facial aside, Detroit's window of world championships is closed. The frontcourt (which was once a great strength) is now a liability. Rasheed Wallace is still a good player but pairing him with Amir Johnson isn't exactly like having him run with Big Ben. Adding Kwame Brown isn't the answer, either. Hamilton and Chauncy Billips are not the backcourt they once were. Rodney Stuckey adds a lot of the bench, but not enough. Tayshaun Prince's length and athleticism make him the most valuable player on the team.

6. Toronto Raptors - And let the drop-off begin. Adding Jermaine O'Neal for T.J. Ford was a stroke of brilliance. Ford was stuck behind José Calderón and was too frail to hang with the big boys. O'Neal allows Chris Bosh to move to the four and dominate most Eastern bigs, not named Dwight Howard. Anthony Parker makes a great number five starter, unfortunately Jamario Moon is in the starting lineup. Andrea Bargnani nees to prove to the world that he was a deserving number one overall pick if the Raptors plan to contend.

7. Washington Wizards - Brendon Haywood's injury will hurt more than most people realize. While he's not a standout by any stretch of the imagination, he is a big body 7-footer who Etan Thomas will be hard pressed to replace. Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler still make a dynamic one-two punch and if Agent Zero can come back with any sort of team play mentality, Washington might be a lot better than a seven-seed.

8. Chicago Bulls - The new voice of Vinny Del Negro will be a welcomed change for a team that had tuned out Scott Skiles' yelling. Despite the change at the top, the Bulls will only be playoff bound by default. Derrick Rose will be a star, but even the great ones have some learning curve. Chicago will face the same issue it did last season, that of no post presence. Luol Deng, Ben Gordon and Rose give them three great perimeter players but Joakim Noah, Drew Gooden and Tyrus Thomas will get ball clubbed on a nightly basis.

9. Miami Heat - Laugh if you want, but Dwayne Wade won't let this team be lousy two years in a row. Flash will put up MVP quality numbers as the claws this team back to respectability. Michael Beasley is the truth, no doubt about it. He and Wade will team up for many a year. The wild card is Shawn Marion. I don't understand why there is so much talk of moving him (at this point). He's athletic, can rebound and score from all over the court. He and Wade, along with a developing Beasley, will have this team in contention until the final games.

10. Atlanta Hawks - Atlanta is the last of the half decent Eastern Conference teams. Youth everywhere makes the Hawks a team to watch. Joe Johnson is nothing more than a good second banana. He lacks that certain quality that number ones possess. The real question is whether Al Horford or Josh Smith will be the break out star. My money is on Horford. As he adds moves in the post he could develop into a 20-and-10 guy. If Mike Bibby is around after the trade deadline that means Atlanta is in the race. If not, they're dead in the water.

11. Indiana Pacers - T.J. Ford is such an upgrade over Jamaal Tinsley it's ridiculous. His break neck style (no pun attended) is the perfect compliment for Mike Dunleavy and the emerging Danny Granger. If Granger can become the All-Star he's capable of than Indiana is in business. If not then they'll miss Jermaine O'Neal more than they ever realized.

12. Milwaukee Bucks - At this point it's really a crap shoot but the Bucks have the talent to be the best of the rest. The problem is both Michael Redd and Richard Jefferson are gunners and that could destroy the offense. Andrew Bogut is far from a number one overall player but he has a good offensive awareness which Milwaukee should utilize but the Redd/Richardson show could cripple that thought. I like Charlie Villanueva (who arrived in a trade for T.J. Ford) a lot but (with Luke Ridnour running the show) now the point guard situation is piss poor.

13. Charlotte Bobcats - Adding Larry Brown to the bench is good for five wins by itself. The return of Sean May and Adam Morrison may be good for five loses, however. Both of them are soft and weak. Charlotte would be better off to add a couple of hard nosed players to the rotation and cut their loses. Gerald Wallace is a great energy guy who has tuned himself into an offensive option. Jason Richardson is a great offensive option who offers nothing in the way of veteran leadership. Emeka Okafor does what he does (rebound and defend) very well, but nothing more. The issue here is that this team has not identity, except for "The team MJ owns."

14. New York Knicks - Mike D'Antoni's system won't work with this team. Zach Randolph and Eddy Curry are the antithesis of the type of bigs D'Antoni wants. They clog up the middle and can't run the floor. David Lee, on the other hand, is the type of guy every team wants. He has hit his ceiling, however. You can't expect any more from him. The team already looks a mess and we haven't even gotten into the hideous back court. Chris Duhon and Lee are the only guys I'd want on this team and I'd only want them as back ups. They both start in this mess. There aren't enough shots in the league (no less this team) for Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson and Stephon Marbury. The Knicks need a fire sale NOW (give them away if they have to) if they have any hope of contending in the next five years.

15. New Jersey Nets Lucky for the Knicks there is the Nets. The young core of this team (Devin Harris, Brook Lopez, Yi Jianlian, Sean Williams, Josh Boone, Chris Douglas-Roberts) have a ton of potential but they still must contend with the albatross that is Vince Carter. If Carter isn't moved weeks prior to the trade deadline I'll shit myself. New Jersey needs to send him to a contender (which he'll sink) and get a couple of picks and a youngster in return. Then, and only then, can the rebuilding process begin.


Western Conference


1. Los Angeles Lakers - Experts are treating the return of Andrew Bynum as the second coming. I won't go that far but the fact remains that the Lake-Show made it to the finals without him. Adding a 7-footer with touch can only help. Even with Pau Gasol people still say Kobe Bryant needs a secondary star. If Gasol isn't a secondary star, who is? Add to those three potential all stars, Lamar Odom (who is finally at a spot he belongs, as the fourth star on a very good team), steady Derek Fisher and the deepest bench in the west and I'm hard pressed to see anybody wrestling the top spot away from LA.

2. Houston Rockets - I am IN LOVE with the Rockets this year. The addition of Ron Artest is exactly what the doctor ordered. He's tough-as-hell, which compliments Tracy McGrady, he can defend as well as anyone in the league, and will rebound and can give you 20-a-night. What's not to like? Well other than the fact that he's insane. Houston is the perfect place to temper that insanity, though. Yao Ming and McGrady are good veteran leaders and guys like Shane Battier and Brent Barry are upstanding citizens. If he can't fall in line here he's a lost cause. If Rafer Alston can refrain from sucking, Houston has all the makings of a champion.

3. San Antonio Spurs - What can you say? The Spurs are the Spurs. Tim Duncan is constantly excellent. Tony Parker is brilliant and Manu Ginóbili is a terror. The supporting players are always good. But age HAS to catch up with this team eventually. If it's not age that derails the San Antonio express it could be Ginóbili's ankle. Offseason surgery may be a good thing as the lynchpin of their success will be rested but it could also spell doom if he's unable to come back as the Manu of old.

4. Portland Trail Blazers - 2008's surprise team resides in the Pacific Northwest. The Blazers shocked the world last year and will only be better this year as the best center to enter the league since Shaquille O'Neal enters the fold. Greg Oden doesn't offer the offensive game Shaq did but that's not what the Blazers need. Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge can handle the scoring. Oden's presence allows Aldridge to concentrate on the offensive end. Oden will be a game changer, that I'm sure of and he'll probably add championship hardware to Portland's trophy case before too long.

5. Utah Jazz - Deron Williams is all the point guard his contemporary in New Orleans is, with half the publicity. That doesn't matter at all in the win/loss columns though as he and Carlos Boozer (imagine if he was still in Cleveland?) make a dynamic team. The rest of the team is filled with role guys and specialists, except for Andrei Kirilenko. Kirilenko is one of only a handful of players who can get a triple double in as many as five categories. The question is; which Kirilenko will the Jazz get. If they get the AK-47 who dominates, Utah could be looking to a return to the glory days of the late 90's.

6. New Orleans Hornets - Chris Paul will win the MVP this season. Look at the facts. He averages 21 and 11, has led his team to the Western Conference elite and has turned David West into an All-Star. Don't get me wrong West is a nice player but and All-Star? In the west? David West would be a 13 and six guy without Chris Paul. In addition, Peja Stojakovic is rapidly showing signs of age and Tyson Chandler is only worthwhile on one end of the court. Together, however, (along with newly added James Posey) the Hornets manage to be a formidable team and should make noise in the Western Conference playoffs.

7. Dallas Mavericks - The Jason Kidd experiment is a failure. The Mavs would have been better off keeping Devin Harris. At least he can play at a quicker style, which suits Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Howard and Jason Terry for that matter. Jerry Stackhouse used to be a key bench contribiutor but the fact is he's only a fraction of what he once was. Nowitzki doesn't have the heart to lead this team. That is the one place where Kidd earns his pay but Dallas needs its best player to be its leader, not its ancient point guard. Mark Cuban would be smart to cut his loses and rebuild but we all know that won't happen.

8. Phoenix Suns - The Shaquille O'Neal experiment is a failure. The Suns allow too many points to contend and Shaq can't give them enough minutes to reverse that fact. Amare Stoudemire isn't mature enough and Grant Hill is a little too mature (read: old). What was once a tremendous bench (Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, Boris Diaw) has turned into an after though. I hope I'm wrong because Phoenix has been one of the most fun teams to watch in recent memory, and it would be a real shame if Steve Nash's glory years end without a title, but I just don't see Terry Porter being able to circle the wagons.

9. Denver Nuggets - The Blazers ascension means the Nuggets dissension. Trading Marcus Camby seems to indicate the waving of the white flag. Nene has no business trying to replace the defense Camby brought. A two-man team is not a playoff team in the west, even when one of the two is Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is criminally overlooked but has developed into one of the game's premier players. He can do it all but the question is if he can keep his head on straight. At 33, Allen Iverson is not what this team needs. Dealing him for some young talent could allow the Nuggets to reload in '09, instead of rebuilding later.

10. Los Angeles Clippers - For all that was made of Baron Davis' move, all it really means is that his new team will finish one spot higher than his old team. Davis brings a lot of sizzle to LA but the steak left town when Elton Brand signed with Philly. Adding Marcus Camby was a smart move because he'll bring a defensive presence which has long been lacking. Chris Kaman will never be an all-star starter, as long as Yao Ming is around, but he's a damn good center. The rest of the roster is filled with scorers (Ricky Davis, Tim Thomas, Cuttino Mobley, Eric Gordon) but no meat-and-potato guys. The development of Al Thornton could be the difference between making the playoffs or missing out.

11. Golden State Warriors - Corey Maggette is no Baron Davis. He doesn't make anyone around him better and that will cost the Warriors this season. I like Al Harrington and Stephen Jackson, but not as top options. Davis took that pressure off them, Maggette will not. Monta Ellis is a nice player but was better suited coming off the bench, plus he'll be out until Christmas with an ankle injury (and lying soul). I don't see Don Nelson lasting much longner with this team because they have next to no shot at contending.

12. Minnesota Timberwolves - For better or worse, Al Jefferson has become the face of this franchise. He's a 20-and-10 guy but lacks that sizzle that will put asses in the seats. Kevin Love is a great complementary player, but he'll never be the 17-and-10 guy he was in college. Minnesota would be best served to let player run through him. He is a great passer and his basketball IQ is off the charts. The rest of the team is filled with role players, albiet nice role players. Mike Miller should find a ton of open looks when Jefferson draws double teams. That's important because he can't create his own shot. I don't believe Randy Foye is a starting point guard in this league, and Sebastian Telfair is no better. If either Ryan Gomes or Corey Brewer (more likely Brewer) can turn into a legit player in the association things will be looking up for the T'Wolves. If not, than Minnesota could see itself in the Western basement.

13. Oklahoma City Thunder - Kevin Durant is already a premier scorer in the league. The problem is he doesn't do anything else. He's 6'10" and plays the two, so he offers nothing on the boards. That would be fine, but he doesn't play any defense either. Nick Collison and Chris Wilcox are what they are, that is average (to below average) NBA bigs. The Thunder know what they are going to get out of them. After those three, the rest of the roster is a question mark. Will Jeff Green or Russell Westbrook transform into adequate sidekicks to Durant? If they both do, the fans of Oklahoma City can expect a bright future, if not, they may want to ship them back to Seattle.

14. Sacramento Kings - Kevin Martin isn't a building block player. He can score, but that's about it. He'll see his number fall without Artest and Bibby around. The wise move would be to finish off the fire sale and ship Brad Miller before the deadline. That would allow the Kings to see if Spence Hawes is a future starting center, or just a rotaion guy. How good can Shelden Williams be if Mikki Moore is starting at the four? What else is left? John Salmons? Beno Udrih? Francisco Garcia? Those names don't exactly set the world on fire.