Points in the Paint 11.21.08

Posted by Rob Bonnette on 11.21.2008

Rookie watch, plus a big trade!

Hello all and welcome to another edition of Points in the Paint. This week I talk Allen Iverson, Portland, and rookies. Enjoy!

The Iverson Trade!

Yes, I'm super late talking about this, but I did really want to watch it play out over a few games before passing judgment. My initial thought was that it was an immediate salary dump for Denver, which would be followed by an offseason salary dump for Detroit. Just two weeks ago it looked like Detroit was going to have Iverson, Rasheed Wallace, and Rip Hamilton as free agents come this summer, and would likely allow all three to walk or try to go some kind of sign and trade deal with one or all three. Now the Pistons have re-upped Hamilton through 2011, so we know that they're at least going to keep him. Wallace has always been the big dilemma; he's over 30 and makes a lot of money (as does Iverson of course), but he still brings frontcourt defense and offense (when he feels like it) that the Pistons will not be able to easily replace. It's not like they'll be able to let him go and bring in Chris Bosh; his replacement will be some tall guy who isn't anywhere near as good. If they want to stay competitive for the Eastern crown, they have to keep Rasheed around. And what of the Answer? I think it's in flux, really. If they do well enough to convince Joe Dumars to keep it together and Iverson doesn't ask for too much money, he'll probably stay. If they flame out, get a low seed, and lose early in the playoffs then I'm guessing he's allowed to leave and ‘Sheed get signed and traded.

How's it working out so far? Well, they lost their first two games after getting Iverson but have regrouped and won two of their last three. I think it will be fine in the long run, at least for the regular season. The playoffs will be interesting; the Pistons big problem has been that they lacked a guy who could take over offensively in a big game. Their recent lineup had a bunch of guys who could get 20 to 25 points with no problem, but no one who had the attitude necessary to get 30 or 40 when the need arose. They have that guy now, even if he is a few years past his prime. Iverson, on the other hand has always need a team that fit him precisely in order to be successful; the one year he had it he was MVP and reached the NBA Finals. Every year since then the Sixers saddled him with big name guys who were past their prime (Derrick Coleman, Glen Robinson, and Chris Webber) or were never as good as advertised (Keith Van Horn). Then came the Denver trade, where was dropped onto a roster that made little sense whatsoever. You had Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, and a bunch of other guys who were overpaid, overrated, and played the same position (yes, I'm talking about Kenyon martin and Nene). As far as the Nuggets go, they're still stranded in limbo as a borderline playoff team for the moment. Chauncey Billups is a better fit than Iverson was, but at then end of the day they're still sending out Kenyon Martin and Nene to do battle with Carlos Boozer and Mehmet Okur in Utah, David West and Tyson Chandler in Utah, Yao and Luis Scola in Houston, and Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in Los Angeles. Does anyone think they win any of those matchups? Shoot, they may not even be better than the Greg Oden/LaMarcus Aldridge duo in Portland.

The ‘Disappointing' Trailblazers

OK, last week one of you guys questioned my labeling the Portland Trailblazers as a disappointing team so far, even asking me for n explanation. So here we go. As of the time I wrote that, the Blazers were 4-3. Right now they're 6-5, which isn't any better. The six wins are: 100 - 99 over San Antonio (minus Manu Ginobli), 101 - 99 over Houston (no problem with that one), 97 - 93 over Minnesota, 106 - 99 over Orlando, 104 - 96 over Miami, and 88 - 83 over Minnesota again. So we have two close wins over good teams (one of which was without their All-Star shooting guard), and third relatively comfortable win over another good team (Orlando), one win over a so-so Miami team, and two wins over a bad Minnesota team. The losses include an opening day 96 – 76 drubbing by the Lakers, 107 – 96 to Phoenix, 103 - 96 to Utah (playing without Deron Williams), 87-82 to New Orleans, and 111- 106 to Golden State. So against teams that made the playoffs last season they are 3 – 4, with none of the four losses being by less than five points and none of the three wins by more than eight. And their three wins over non playoff teams from last year were by four, five, and eight. And through eleven games they're being outscored 97 – 95 and outshot 47 percent to 44 percent. By comparison last season's team was outscored 96 – 95 and shot about the same as their opponents (45 percent) on their to a .500 record.

So what am I getting at here? Very simple: as of yet there's been no overall improvement from a team that was supposed to move from just missing the playoffs to a shoo-in for a postseason berth. Everyone had them penciled in somewhere between sixth and eighth, and while they are sixth right now they're in some serious jeopardy if the Spurs ever get healthy and Dallas get right. Given that they added Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez to this year's team, they should be better than they were last season. Which means that they should be able to beat the Minnesota's of the world more handily than they have, and that they shouldn't be losing to a less than full strength Jazz team. I expected to be at a point where they didn't have to struggle against the bottom feeders of the league anymore and they haven't gotten there yet. So for the time being, they're not quite where they should be in my book. But all that being said, we're only eleven games in so they can easily turn my assessment on it head in no time.

UPDATE: And it looks like they may be on their way to doing just that. They stomped the Chicago Bulls really good last night, 116 – 74.

Rookie Watch!

So far I've gotten to look at a few members of the rookie class, and I have to say that I like what I see. Derrick Rose looks like the real deal here; not just statistically, but also in terms of leadership. You can watch him and see that he is in charge out there in terms of running the Bulls offense. He distributes the ball pretty well but can also score some points; he's not Chris Paul or Deron Williams yet, but I could see him getting to that level in a few years if he improves any. And even if he doesn't he should be an All Star reserve soon, and maybe even a starter down the road if the Bulls start winning more and he gets a higher profile. Going back to June, I thought he should have been the first pick under the ‘Best Player Available' rules, but wasn't sure if he'd be enough of an upgrade over what the Bulls were already working with at point guard. It's obvious now that they made the right choice. I was iffy on Michael Beasley as well, but it turns out that he should be a very good player as well. I watched the Heat play Portland last week and made it a point to look closely at how Beasley played. From what I saw he has the skills that are needed to be a good offensive player. He hit some mid range jumpers, was able to put the ball on the floor and score of the dribble, and get some points off of put-backs. He's been getting double figures most nights in points (14.7 per game as I write this), and is shooting a respectable 44 percent from the floor. Anything not to like about him? For me, not really. I will say that his demeanor suggests that he won't be a true franchise player; he just doesn't look to have that ‘Kill Everybody!' intensity that you need to be the number one guy on a good team. But I do think he be a great number two guy in a year or two, a guy who puts up numbers but isn't the spiritual and emotional leader out there and doesn't get the clear out for the last shot in the game. I also don't think he's going to be a great rebounder at the pro level; like Kevin Durant last year he put up rebounding numbers in college that just weren't going to hold up in the pros based on his size. But that's not really a negative unless you were expecting for him to be a ten rebound guy, which I wasn't.

That's all for this week. Next week it's all about Greg Oden. Until then…