Points in the Paint 02.19.09: All Star Edition (Part II)

Posted by Rob Bonnette on 02.19.2009

Predictions for second half, plus awards!

Alright everyone, this is Part II of the week's edition. In this part I'm making predictions for the second half of the season, and handing out some so far awards. Let's get to it!

The prognosis for the Playoffs

The East:

Locks: Boston, Cleveland, Orlando, Atlanta

Safe, but can't rest: Detroit, Miami, Philadelphia

Fighting for Eighth: Milwaukee, Chicago, New Jersey

Close, but won't make it: Charlotte, New York

Done: Indiana, Toronto

Beyond Done: Washington

Boston and Cleveland are fighting for first place and home court throughout; Orlando was in the mix but the Jameer Nelson injury ended that. They'll try to hang on to their sizable lead over the Hawks but it won't be easy. Detroit, Miami, and Philly will likely finish five through seven; what order is anyone's guess. If Milwaukee can hang on until Andrew Bogut and Luke Ridinhour get back they should be able to lock up the eight spot; if not the Bulls and Nets have a chance at it. Charlotte and New York can't sustain a good stretch of games long enough to close the gap, Indiana and Toronto can't put together more than a few wins at a time, and Washington just won their eleventh game. Enough said. Now as far as who wins the East, it'll be either Boston or Cleveland. It really depends on what each team does the end of the trade deadline. The Celtics are badly in need of someone who can come off the bench and give some quality minutes against good teams, or else their Big Three will be burned out come playoff time. I'd give the Cavs the edge in depth right now, but the intangibles are with Boston, who are likely to approach a rematch a lot more confidently than they did last year.

The West:

Locks: the Lakers, San Antonio, Denver, Portland, Houston, Dallas

Should get in, but can't let up: Utah

Fading; New Orleans, Phoenix

Out: Everyone Else (Golden State, Minnesota, Memphis, the Clippers, Oklahoma City, Sacramento)

The Lakers should end up with the best record, and the Spurs should be a comfortable second. Everyone else is playing for the right to lose in the second round. The order of finish between Portland, Houston, and Dallas is up in the air, but they should all get in now. New Orleans is on really shaky ground. They've decimated by injuries and now they've traded away their best post defender in Tyson Chandler in return for a couple of power forwards who will have to masquerade as centers. The Hornets running up of the white flag benefits Utah, which had been struggling but is playing better as of late, and Phoenix. The Suns will interesting to watch; Alvin Gentry has taken over for Terry Porter as head coach, and has already announced that seven seconds or less is back as the primary offensive strategy. That also has sparked the rumor that Amare Stoudemire won't be traded after all; an intact Suns team doing what they do best should be able to move up and nudge the Hornets aside. Phoenix gets in now while New Orleans stays home. The conference is a toss up to me. A healthy Spurs team hasn't been sent packing in the playoffs since 2004, so if they're at full strength you absolutely cannot assume a Laker victory.

So what's my Finals pick? If the four top teams stay as they are, and Andrew Bynum makes it back, I got Cleveland-L.A. If Boston gets a good reserve player and Bynum makes it back, I'll take Boston-LA again. If Bynum doesn't make it, I like the Spurs to pull of the upset and make their likely last hurrah as a Finals participant.

Awards!

Here's what I think so far:

Rookie of the Year: I still like Derrick Rose at this point. There are a lot of guys playing well (OJ Mayo, Michael Beasley, Brook Lopez, and Russell Westbrook) but so far Rose looks as if he'll have the best wire to wire rookie season of them all.

Most Improved: Kevin Durant; the boy is now a man. He still needs to add some muscle but its clear now that he has aggressiveness needed to be a big star to go along with his talent. He's gone from a guy who got to shoot a lot because he was on a bad team to a legit future All-Star and franchise player.

I don't pick defensive player of the year.

Sixth Man: Beats the heck outta me. Manu Ginobli sounds good.

Coach of the Year: Mike Woodson, Hawks. After their near first round surprise against the Celtics they could have been satisfied and come into this season ready to slack off; that they've gotten better and become a legit playoff team and not just a fringe one is a testament to them staying focused and doing what's needed to win. Woodson deserves some love for that.

MVP: Lebron. I'm a Kobe man, but I have to give it up here. He's got the numbers, and he's got his team in a better place than was expected of them this year. Kobe got his make up call last season, so now it's time to give it to the guy who's not surrounded by All Star talent. King James it is!

OK, that's it for Part II. Next week I'll look at the trade deadline moves and comment! Until then…