411Mania's NFL Playoff Roundtable 2007: Divisional Round
Posted by J. Yayo Hernandez on 01.13.2007
Sorry that we’re tardy for the party, but now that we’re here let's rock and roll!!!
Hello everyone and welcome to 411Sports annual look at the road to the Superbowl. This week we will be reviewing the NFL's Divisional playoff weekend. Unfortunately due to some technical difficulties we couldn't get this up sooner.. but don't worry the information is just as good.
And joining us for the divisional round Michael Bauer!
And with that let's take a look at how the playoff seeding looks.
January 13, 2007
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
4:30 on CBS
EM: Ravens - Baltimore Defense wins playoff games. Simple as that and it doesn't matter what the sport is. Baltimore has one, Indy doesn't. Again, simple as that. Baltimore also has Air McNair and Ray Lewis, speaking earlier about this season, said he told McNair that if McNair came to Baltimore, they could have something special this year. Steve McNair believed him and so do I.
Larry Csonka:Ravens - Those damn Colts ruined my selections last week. Well, not so much them as the KC offense not showing up ruined my upset special as I went 3 for 4 in picks. Anyway the Colts walked out with the big W and are now headed to Baltimore for a clash. Baltimore was a huge surprise to me this year, I will admit to thinking that they would improve with McNair at the helm, but never imagined them having the season that they did. Not only were they improved, and not only were they winning but they were man handling teams. It is this reason that I think they will take this week's match up. I have full confidence that their offense will show up, they will pound the ball at Indy and in the end will man handle the Colts. The score will be close I feel, but when it is done you will have the feeling that the Colts got a beat down. One Manning down, one to go.
JT: Ravens - Indy is favored here, but this just has all the making for the "okay, this is how far they made it this year" game for the Colts. The Colts D has played well enough at home, but they have played pretty poorly on the road. On the flipside, Baltimore only lost one game at home, and only two overall in the AFC, clearly the stronger of the two conferences. McNair has been trying to show the Titans they made a mistake, and he did so in the form of 3000+ yards and an 83% QB rating this year; all while handing off to Jamal Lewis for another 1100+. Now, that isn't to say it didn't work out for Tennessee, but McNair clearly wasn't the washed up old man they thought he was. I just feel that the gap between the offenses isn't NEARLY the size of the gap between the defenses, and therefore, Peyton is going home.
Sat: Colts - I could see either team winning here. However, I think that one road team will win and this is the one. If Baltimore has any chance of winning, then it will come down to their passing game. Indianapolis' defense looked great last week. They won't be great this week, but they will be good enough to win. Colts win a close game
Garmer: Ravens - That Colts defense proved us all wrong last week with their amazing play. They stopped KC's only offense and made Trent Green worry every time he threw the ball, but we are talking about a guy that hasn't played much this year either. Even if we get a repeat performance against a more experienced McNair the Ravens have the best D in the land and they will make Peyton pay. Peyton cannot expect his defense to save him twice. Ravens will be in Peyton's face, and McNair is going to have better success against that D no doubt about that.
Pelletier: Ravens - As much as I want to pick Indy because of my hatred for the Ravens, I just can't. Baltimore has the one defense that can put the clamps on the Colts O and Manning is due for his yearly playoff melt down. First it was Peyton lashing out at his offense line, then it was the "Idiot Kicker." Peyton's targets just keep getting weaker and weaker. The equipment manager better watch out.
Yayo: Ravens - Everyone is focused on the battle of offensive firepower (the Colts rank third in the NFL) against defensive prowess (the Ravens ranked first), but it's going to be the other half of the game that determines the winner. Can the Colts 20th ranked defense hold the Steve McNair lead 15th ranked offense. The Ravens really can't punish with Jamal Lewis because the Ravens rushing offense isn't that good (24th in the NFL). But that's why the Ravens picked up McNair who has had plenty of success against the Colts as a Titan. Look for the Ravens to win a slugout.
Bauer: Colts - Like Larry, there is no way I thought the Colts defense would play as well as they did against the Chiefs. And I can talk for ages about Indy's failure on the road the second half of the season. That said, they will be able to beat the Ravens for the simple reason that Baltimore has truly never gotten a running game established this year. Ok, maybe it is no so simple. Despite Jamal Lewis running for over 1100 yards (and I had to look that one up, I had no clue), he only had two games where he broke the century mark and failed to score in 9 of the Ravens 16 games his year. This game comes down to a field goal at the end and nobody is more clutch than Adam.
January 13, 2007
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
8:00 on FOX
EM: Saints - New Orleans Drew Brees is looking to really smush this in the face of the San Diego Chargers and his only chance to do that is if the Saints advance, which they will here. Philadelphia is good, but not Saints good.
Larry Csonka: Eagles - Last week Philly pulled one out of the hat and the Jeff Garcia reunion tour continues. Garcia was a mild 17-31 for 153yds last week, but most importantly did not make any mistakes. Westbrook was a beast with 20 carries for 141yds, all that while he was ill during the second half. Philly just keeps finding way to win. On the other side of things we have the Cinderella story of the NFL, the Saints. A team that got to return home this season and was riding on the hype of drafting Reggie Bush and signing Drew Breese. Breese had a tremendous season, Bush was a solid addition, but upstaged by the surprising Marques Colston and his 70 catches. Deuce McAllister returned from injury last season to put up a total of 1,300yds and as the stars aligned, the team rolled to a division title. This is a hard one to pick, Philly has all of the momentum while the Saints are the sentimental, and statistical favorite. I picked Philly for this week's upset special.-
JT: Saints - Sorry Larry, not in that town, not in that stadium, not against that team. You said it perfectly; they are the Cinderella story and in a MAJOR way. Jeff Garcia and the Eagles are indeed on a roll and that cannot be denied, but Drew Brees this year has put up 300+ yards on teams in his sleep. Philadelphia will be without their starting Pro Bowl cornerback Lita Sheppard (FYI, he will be replaced by someone who wasn't even active last week). I look for him to have a field day down the field with Colston, and just as much fun hitting Bush in the flat. Philly has been a good story for six weeks, New Orleans has been a great one all year.
Sat: Eagles - Philadelphia's magical run ends here and New Orleans run to the Super Bowl starts here. New Orleans has way too much talent for Philadelphia to handle. The Saints have too much firepower with Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, & Deuce McAllister. Philadelphia will not be able to contain New Orleans as the Saints run all over the Eagles.
Garmer: Saints - This is a hard game to predict because you have one team that is on fire and the other that is young and immensely talented on both sides of the ball. I'm very happy for the Saints that for the first time in their history they are in this position, to have a credible chance at going to the Championship game. It is a beautiful thing for that city that has been through so much in the past year. Jeff Garcia, Brian Westbrook, and the rest of the Eagles stand in their way. I said that their game with the Giants was going to be close, and it was, just like we all predicted they prevailed. The Eagles are hot but I think the Saints have the better coaching staff, and overall better team.
Pelletier: Eagles - The best game of the week will take place in the Big Easy. Philly is the hottest squad in the league and the Saints are America's Sweetheart, but they're still the Aints and I can't pick them to win. Now that the play calling duties have been pried from Andy Reids hands the Birds have a real shot at the Super Bowl.
Yayo: Saints - Disclaimer: I just want the Saints to win. I think New Orleans is the feel good story of the year and nothing could do more for the spirit of the city than to win the Superbowl. Good thing the Saints offense is playing at such a high level under Drew Brees that this isn't a fantasy. Jeff Garcia will be hard pressed to continue the string of great performances and is due for a letdown. The Eagles aren't these years Steelers.
Bauer: Saints - Alert: Giants fan talking here. Yes, I must admit, I honestly didn't pick this game to happen because I had both #6 seeds winning. But now that it is here, we get the battle of the two cinderella teams with the continuing rebirth of New Orleans and Jeff Garcia. The Eagles offense, while good, was not that sharp against the Giants and they will need to be against the best offense in the NFC. Add in the fact that Sheppard is out and I won't be surprised if Brees goes for 400 yards. The Eagles will just not be able to keep up.
January 14, 2007
Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears
1:00 on FOX
EM: Bears - Shaun Alexander has once again decided to roll on his back, spread his legs, hold his ankles in the air and yell, "come on, baby!" instead of actually playing. He's got his millions, he could care less. This guy is the Ike Austin of the NFL. With his millions, I'm sure he has a kickass tv, which is good for him because in front of it is where he will be spending the rest of this year's playoffs after this game.
Larry Csonka: Bears - Seattle escaped last week with a win as Romo couldn't handle a late field goal snap. I thought Seattle would win, but in a more convincing way. They looked rough last week on offence as Hasselbeck and Alexander struggled against what I feel is a lame duck defense in Dallas. Now they head to Chicago who does indeed have a great defense and they will have to step things up big time. Chicago limped into the playoffs with questionable play by their quarterback Rex Grossman; who for the first time ever played a full season. Grossman could be bet down and tired, but I feel the strong Chicago running game and defense will carry them through this Seattle team.
JT: Seahawks - This is the toughest pick for me this week (you'll see why for the next game). Chicago seems like the clear cut favorite here under the circumstances, but the fact is Rex Grossman had five really, REALLY bad games this year, and 5 of 16 is almost 33%. Basically he has not shown consistently that he can be a fantastic quarterback (or even a reliable quarterback) week in and week out. With that said, I do believe that his running game and certainly his defense (and DEFINITELY his special teams) are all good enough to cover for a bad day. However, I have to look at experience here. Most of the Bears roster has one or two playoff games under their belts (which they lost). Seattle on the other hand has been to the playoffs every year since 2003, and last year went to the Superbowl. Say what you want, experience does count in the NFL Playoffs. I just think a coach like Holmgren and guys like Hasselbeck, Alexander and company know how to go on the road and get a win in these conditions.
Sat: Bears - Chicago is the #1 seed in the NFC, but they are not that good. However, they are lucky to be facing the Seahawks, who have no business being in the second round. If Romo doesn't fumble the snap, then Seattle is sitting at home. Either way, Seattle will not make it to the championship game. Chicago in a slaughter.
Garmer: Bears - Talk about a team that is lucky to be here. Dallas had that game won many different times, and they shot themselves. Shaun Alexander got stuffed, and if a Dallas defense ruffled their QB's feathers, I can't imagine what the Bears D is going to do. Seahawks do have a chance here because Rex Grossman has been erratic all year. However, I think that Lovie Smith will have no reservations in putting in Brian Griese if things start going south quickly. I think this game could either be a close one or a blowout going to Chicago. However, I'm sticking with the Bears here because the Seahawks look like they shouldn't even be in the playoffs.
Pelletier: Bears - Make no mistake about it, Rex Grossman is a clown but the Seattle defense is like the Bearded Lady: Awful to look at and only enjoyable for shock value. The Monsters of the Midway ride their defense to the championship game.
Yayo: Bears - The Seahawks offense still hasn't hit its stride and playing outdoors in Chicago, against this Bears defense, isn't the catalyst for it to happen. The Bears will torment Hasselbeck throughout the day and Grossman will do just enough to win. Remember for all the bad games Rex has had he was in rarefied form early in the season and two weeks of practice with the offense is all he needs to synch up again.
Bauer: Bears - Seattle needs to thank their lucky stars that Romo finally screwed up, otherwise they would be watching a better matchup of the Cowboys at Chicago. Despite the inconsistency of Rex Grossman, the Seattle Seahawks are just too injured on defense to put up any fight. Just remember, they signed a guy for safety last week who hadn't played a down this year. Folks, this one could get pretty ugly, pretty fast.
January 14, 2007
New England Patriots at San Diego Charges
4:30 on CBS
EM: Chargers - If LaDanian Tomlinson can take the initials "L.T." from one of the all-time tyrants of the NFL, he damn sure can beat a depleted Patriot team that is looking more and more ragged. If you think I'm saying LT can and will beat NE all by himself, you're exactly right. There are no other weapons as deadly or as awesome in the NFL right now, so it will once again be the Tomlinson scoring clinic taking it on home.
Larry Csonka: Chargers - This should be our game of the week right here. NE is coming off of a thrashing of the Jets in a game where Brady got his MOJO back, Gaffney had a great receiving day and Dillon, Faulk, and Maroney platoon ran 34 times for 145yds. With Brady on fire and them continually pounding the ball, they walked out with what looked like an easy win. San Diego…SUPER CHARGERS looked to have some problems early on in the season and the chants of MARTY BALL were heard. But after some stellar comeback victories, they established themselves as a force. Rivers had a great first full season racking up 3300+yds, and a QB rating of 92, well above the league average of 80. LT crushed about every record known to man and was a beast pulling over 2300 combined yards this year, oh and those 31 TD's. I feel this has barn burner written all over it and in the end the SUPER CHARGERS will come away with the win.
JT: Patriots - I know the year Brees had. I know LT has had his best year since 2003. I know their defense has been a beast. I know they're undefeated at home. I know all of that... and I do not care. I will not bet against Tom Brady until somebody beats him (again). Yes, he was beat last year, but the fact is that is a team that has won three of the last five Super Bowls, and Belichick, Brady, and the rest of that team flat out knows how to win in the playoffs. I will probably be wrong, but I'm not going to be the one to call it.
Sat: Chargers - This is the game of week with the experienced quarterback against the rookie quarterback. New England is going to be getting a lot of love this week because they have won three Super Bowls and they demolished the Jets last week. This week, the Patriots fall back to earth because they will be dominated by the Chargers' defense and Tomlinson runs all over the Patriots. Chargers in a blow-out.
Garmer: Patriots - I did not expect the Patriots to run rough shot all over the Jets like they did. Billy B and Tom Brady showed that they are wonderful at using what they have. No matter who gets hurt they are able to plug people in and continue. Philip Rivers as great as he's been is going into his first playoff game, and you know the Patriots are going to gameplan to come after Rivers, and contain LT. LT may be the MVP but he can't win the game by himself. This is probably the most difficult game to predict, but I'm going with coaching and experience. Don't forget Marty Schottenheimer always finds a way to kill his team in the playoffs, not that I think that's going to happen, but that's something to remember.
Pelletier: Patriots - Is there anyway that I could pick Marty Schottenheimer to beat Brady and Bellicheck? In a word; NO! San Diego has all the talent and all the momentum but if Marty is going to pull a Marty you'd have to imagine it will be against the Pats.
Yayo: Patriots - Yes we know the Chargers have a great front seven. But take a closer look. The Chargers are allowing 4.2 yard per carry on the ground (tied for 18th in the NFL). Corey Dillon averages 4.1 and Laurence Maroney averages 4.3 yards per carry. Expect to see the Patriots run at the Chargers and then Brady drop back for play action. On the flip side the Patriots will throw all sorts of exotic look to confuse Phillip Rivers. If the Patriots can keep Tomlinson to an average day on the ground and out of the end zone (a big if), then the Pats will win.
Bauer: Chargers - I actually had this matchup pegged for the AFC Championship game, but that doesn't mean it will be any less good. The Pats have one job, stop LT! Here's the problem. You can't stop the guy, you can only hope he doesn't go for three touchdowns. And as good as Tom Brady is, I can't see him coming up with enough firepower to match the San Diego offense. The only question that remains is this: When will the really Marty please stand up?
