411 Super Bowl XLI Roundtable
Posted by J. Yayo Hernandez on 02.02.2007
No one picked the Bears to win last week, will our experts make the same mistake twice? Click here and find out...
Hello everyone and welcome to 411Sports annual look at the Super Bowl. It's been a long journey for both teams involved, with each stumbling after starting their seasons with talks of perfection. And here to reflect on the big game is our panel of experts.
And with the introductions completed let's begin our show!
February 4, 2007 Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears 6:25 PM on CBS
JT: Colts - Despite the fact I am picking Indianapolis, I am going to give you one of the most overlooked stats of this entire game and it is actually in favor of the other team. Indianapolis was 30th in the league in kick/punt return coverage this year, and are one of only two teams to allow three returns for a touchdown this year; I don't believe I have to explain what Devin Hester has done.
The reason I bring this stat up is because it hopefully shows my reasoning for the fact that I hated picking this game. My pull to see Tony Dungy and Peyton Manning win the big one forces me to pick Indianapolis, but the fact remains that the Chicago Bears are the best team in the NFC, and I would not at all be surprised at all if they ended up winning the whole F'N thing. You do not win 15 games by getting lucky (although I'll give you the Arizona game), you win 15 games by design. Ironically, 15 is also the number of games that the Colts have won this year.
Let's start with the offenses. Peyton is Peyton, Marvin is Marvin, and Addai is Addai. We are all well aware of their potential explosiveness and it's no shocker that they were 3rd in the league overall. While the Bears are around the middle of the pack, both RB's Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones have had very productive years in Lovie's "two-back" system. I also believe that Chicago's WR core is one of the (unjustly) least recognized in the entire league. Essentially, both teams are capable of both long, time consuming drives, or at the same time putting up the big play. I think the main question will be which Rex Grossman (and to an extent, which Peyton Manning) shows up.
Defensively, the Bears clearly have the edge (another reason I am so scared about picking Indy). Admittedly, despite the fact that New England put up 34 points on them (I mean, come on, it's the Patriots and it's the playoffs), the Colts defense has seemingly hit their stride and are currently playing their best defense all season. However, that does not change the fact that they are allowing 173 rushing yards per game, something that could prove pivotal in regards to the Bears' aforementioned backfield. The one thing going for them is the great play of the secondary, so if Chicago is to win, it will definitely need to be (and have their best chance with) the running game to step up and get it done. The Bears D is… well… the Bears D. 5th in the league overall, but they have to be considered the best in the league "at this point" because well, the other four teams are sitting at home (Baltimore, Jacksonville, Oakland, Miami). Their run defense has been a beast all year, and Peyton's best shot at this will be to go after the secondary that allowed well over 200 yards in most games this year (they had a couple of complete stingy-fests which brings their per game to 194, but they consistently allowed 200+ yards).
Ultimately, I think this game will be decided by four factors:
1. How well do the Bears run it against the Colts? (Fun Fact: The Colts are last in the league in preventing 3rd down conversions, something Chicago may want to think about as the game wears on)
2. How well do the Colts pass against the Bears? (Fun Fact: Bears are second in the league in INTs, tied for 8th in sacks. They have been a turnover beast all year, and they will no doubt be looking to rattle Peyton into a crucial sack or easy turnover)
3. How do the QB's manage the game? (Fun Fact: This is the first Super Bowl for either quarterback, but for Rex Grossman it is only his 27th (23rd start I believe) game ever as opposed to Peyton's 155 [11 of which come in the playoffs])
4. How do the defenses play? (Fun Fact: Chicago is tied for 1st in the league in forced fumbles, so Peyton and Addai will both have to make sure they secure the ball well. That being said, statistically speaking, Indianapolis is 1st in team defense in the 2006 post-season)
So again, I can honestly see this going either way, and again it is merely the football fan inside of me that wants to see Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, and Marvin Harrison get rings.
Pelletier: Colts - How the hell am I supposed to follow that JT? Christ, I'm supposed to be the sports guy around here. Of course you'd never know that by my championship picks. If it up to me both the Bears and the Colts would be watching the Super Bowl like everyone else.
Thankfully it's not up to me and Indy and Chi will square off. I won't bore you with stats like JT (I kid, I kid) but I will drop a few overlooked insights (just as JT did with the kickoff situation).
The Bears will look to shut down the Colts big guns and their defense will focus on Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Joseph Addai. The problem is that the Colts are so much more than those three guys and Peyton Manning is the perfect guy to get the ball to sleepers like Dallas Clark and Aaron Moorehead.
On the defensive side of the ball the Colts may be in more trouble than anyone cares to realize. Chicago's two-back system will allow both Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson to say fresh and thus will enable them to pound away on Indy's smallish squad.
Desmond Howard would be happy to know that the X-Factor could be special teams. JT already discussed the Hester factor but he failed to mention the kickers. Robbie Gould has had an awesome year but, let's face it, we're talking about Adam Vinatieri. Throw in Hunter Smith (because field position could be a factor) and the Colts more than hold their own in the kicking game, despite whatever difficulty they may have with Hester.
I too find myself rooting for the Colts solely to see Manning and Dungy get rings and conventional wisdom (not to mention the odds makers) say they are the better team to have a rooting interest in.
Like JT, I see the Bears giving them many more problems than the rest of the country but, ultimately, Indy has too many weapons for even the Chicago defense to shut down.
Colts win; 27-21.
Sat: Bears - The Bears have really surprised me and I am shocked that they have made it this far. They have a good defense (not great) and a bad quarterback. They should have lost to the Saints, but they somehow manage to survive. If they want to win this game, Rex Grossman will definitely have to step up because the Colts' defense has shown that they can stop the run. The Colts are loaded on offense. Add the improved Colts defense and there is no question that the Colts should win this match up. HOWEVER, I am 3-7 in these picks, so I am going to go against my rational thinking and pick the Bears for the win.
Garmer: Bears - I can't believe the Bears beat the Saints. However, they really showed that the team can perform well as long as Grossman plays decent. The Bears have a great D (not as great as that 1985 Bears 46 Defense, but still better than Indy's.) Grossman will have to have his best game at the Big Bowl and I think he can do that. The double headed running attack will help him out with that. The Colts Defense has really been impressive in the playoffs, and I'm sure Peyton will play up to Snuff. I just have a feeling about the Bears in this one. Honestly, I don't care who wins. I'm just hoping for a great game.
EM: Bears - I truly want the Colts to win. What more deserving tandem in the NFL than Peyton Manning, easily the best QB this year and probably the last 5 or so running and Ricky Proehl, the NFL's oldest receiver? However, the Colts defense blows. Chicago, on the other hand, has a great defense and Rex Grossman is playing for a contract. I think this could be either a very stagnant game (most likely) or a slugfest, but I think it will be close until probably the 3rd quarter when an already worn-down Colt defense finally just throws in the sponge. Congratulations to both coaches for chiseling out their bit of history, regardless of the outcome.
Larry - Colts So here we have it, the big game. I limp into it the big game at 5-5, after a 3-1 start. It is a good thing that I don't have that bookie anymore; I would be called lefty by now. I went against Indy twice and they bit me in the ass, and then went with them in the AFC finals and was rewarded so I will go with them again here and hope to go back to back and reach for the glory of above .500 selecting! But I suppose I should break down the game a bit to see why I think that Indy will win.
-Offense: Rex is getting a lot of shit from a lot of people, but I think we have to remember that he has played less than 2-full season's worth of games. He is learning on the job and will make mistakes. But when the man is on he is on, and he has the tools around him to be devastating. In the end, the Bears offense as a whole has had hot and cold streaks. The main thing for them is to get the running game going. On the other side of things you have the Colts offense, which is nothing short of tremendous. Talk about tools, Addai, Clark, Harrison and the list goes on. While they had a rough start to the playoffs, they are just about a sure bet when it comes down to crunch time.
Advantage: Indy
-Defense: The Chicago defense, while a bit roughed up, was very consistent and dominating for most of the season. The Indy defense in the regular season was atrocious, but they showed up in the playoffs and as we all know that is what matters. In the end if the bears can use the running game as they have, the Indy defense will tire much quicker than the Bears defense, and that could be bad news.
Advantage: Chicago
-Special teams: JT hit really well on the special teams. Even if the Indy offense gets off to a big lead and Rex is playing not up to par, with the overall weakness of the Indy D and special teams and the magic that Hester showed this year, the game will never be out of reach. The Bears as a unit have tremendous blocking, as well, so the returns could be key. But let's not forget that Indy has Vinitari's leg, which has been vital in 2 previous Super Bowls. If it is close, beware.
Advantage: PUSH
-Coaching: Lovy Smith has done an awesome job with the Bears, and after coming so close last year he brought them back and said he wouldn't be the Eagles, no, he was going to the big game without three more tries. Tony Dungy has been so close for so long, and is finally there. He has the experience advantage and something to prove. All the rabbits will be out of the hat here.
Advantage: Indy
-In the end, I think this will be a close game until Rex makes the big rookie mistake and Peyton and Co. (DALLAS FN CLARK) take over and put an end to things. It will be close, I will say 31-28 and Vinitari g00ches another team and Peyton gets to make Super Bowl commercials!
Yayo: Colts - I have been hearing it from the Bears fans all week about how no one picked them to beat the Saints. And not only did the Bears beat the Saints, they BEAT the Saints, whom had the number one offense in the NFL. That doesn't bode well for a Colts offense that has been somewhat out ofrhythm since arriving in the playoffs. On the other side of the Colts team you have Bob Sanders return helping shore up their porous run defense by allowing the Colts to cheat more to the line of scrimmage. And although I agree that the Bears have two talented backs, so did the Patriots and a much better quarterback to boot. The Bears special teams has been spectacular but Hester can't score all the touchdowns by themselves. I think with a steady dose of counters to slow down the Bears rush, the Colts receivers not dropping the ball (which is what killed New Orleans) and Peyton standing in the pocket that Indianapolis will get their points. I can't envision Grossman having more then a good quarter which won't be enough for the victory.
