Contenders and Pretenders: Which Teams Will and Won't Make the Playoffs in 2007

Posted by Don M. Dumas on 06.13.2007

Was your team close to making the NFL playoffs last year? Did they barely squeak in? Don M. Dumas of 411mania.com will let you know if your team has a shot in 2007...

CONTENDERS AND PRETENDERS: WHICH TEAMS WILL AND WON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS IN 2007


In the 2006 season, there was a lot of heartbreak and unmet expectations. As with every season, only one team can fulfill their ultimate goal. Last year it was the Indianapolis Colts.

Nothing will change in the 2007 season, as there can only be one Super Bowl Champ. I'm here to tell you which teams that were left out of the playoff picture last year will make it in '07, and which teams that made it in '06 will be left out this upcoming season.

Because it is the dominant conference, lets start with the contenders in the AFC.

AFC Contender #1- Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos were in the playoff hunt all the way up to the last game of the season. In week 17, they fell at home to the San Francisco 49ers, ending their hopes of glory. It will not happen again.

To ensure head coach Mike Shanahan has every weapon he needs to put Denver back in the race, the Broncos went on a free agent-signing frenzy. RB Travis Henry was their biggest free agent acquisition. While running for the Tennessee Titans in 2006, Henry rushed for over 1,200 yards, despite only starting 13 games. Can you imagine what he's capable of doing in Denver?

Also on the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos picked up the sure-handed WR Brandon Stokley. He will be a solid target for their soon-to-be star QB, Jay Cutler. But just in case Cutler goes down, they signed a more than competent backup in Patrick Ramsey.

Defensively, Denver traded with the Detroit Lions for CB Dre' Bly. Sure, they gave up a good RB in Tatum Bell, but he fumbled the football 5 times in '06. That will not fly on Shanahan's team. As long as Henry stays healthy and holds on to the ball, Shanahan will get him at least 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns.

They also picked up the former Chicago Bear and Washington Redskin LB Warrick Holdman and the veteran DT Sam Adams. To help Adams stay rested and healthy, they traded for the former 12th overall pick in 2003 of the St. Louis Rams, DT Jimmy Kennedy (for an undisclosed 2008 draft pick). In the first round of the 2007 draft, they picked up the former Florida pass-rushing DE Jarvis Moss. These four players will have a huge impact on Denver's defense. The secondary will no longer be forced to cover opposing wide receivers for more than a few seconds; which hurt them a lot in 2006.

Denver's biggest acquisition on defense did not come in the form of a player, however. New Defensive Coordinator Jim Bates was exactly what the Broncos needed to solidify their team. While in Miami, Bates put together one of the NFL's most dominant units. From 2000-04, Miami's defense never finished lower than 10th. In 2003, Miami's defense did not surrender a 100 yards rushing to a single back. Denver has the talent for Bates to put another stellar defense together.

The only move Denver made that I wasn't too thrilled about was their signing of TE Daniel Graham. Although he is a great run-blocking TE, they paid a lot of money (5 years, $30 million, $15 million guaranteed) for somebody that can only do one thing. Graham's lack of versatility doesn't warrant the size of his contract, but its apparent that the Broncos plan on running a heck of a lot in 2007 to help their young QB get comfortable.

Prediction: 12-4 and in the playoffs.

AFC Contender #2- Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals ended their 2006 campaign on a 3-game losing streak to finish a dismal 8-8. Although their off-field issues have been well documented, this team is too talented to miss the dance again.

The Bengals lost a lot of players to free agency and they did very little to replace them. This raises some concerns but their core guys are too good to count this team out. They are the only team in the NFL to have a 4,000 yard passer (Carson Palmer), a 1,300 yard rusher (Rudi Johnson), and a 1,300 yard receiver (Chad Johnson).

In the 2007 draft, the Bengals picked CB Leon Hall out of Michigan. Hall will replace Tory James, who was a pretty good corner. Hall will be better than James in the long run, so its best the Bengals not hold him back. If Hall is put immediately into the starting line-up, by week 8 he will be a dependable playmaker.

The Bengals did lose Eric Steinbach, one of the most versatile lineman in football. For Cincinnati, Steinbach has lined up at guard, tackle, and even center. But, with tackles Willie Anderson and Levi Jones in the fold, the Bengals should be able to continue giving their opponents healthy doses of RB Rudi Johnson.

Of course, everyone wonders whether or not this team can stay out of jail long enough to be productive on the field. With new NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell and his enormous suspensions looming, head coach Marvin Lewis should be able to get this team focused and acting like responsible adults off the field.

Barring injuries and arrests, this team should out run their competition like Chad Johnson against a thoroughbred.

Prediction: 11-5 and in the playoffs.

Now a look at the contenders from the NFC.

NFC Contender #1- St. Louis Rams

The St. Louis Rams finished 8-8 in 2006, but they only beat one team with a winning record (Denver, week 1). The Rams did, however, finish on a 3-game winning streak, which is a good accomplishment any way you slice it.

The Rams started 4-1 in '06, only to lose their next 5 games; a slide they never recovered from until it was too late. Head coach Scott Linehan will try to get his team playing on a high level on a more consistent basis. He will rely heavily on his RB, Steven Jackson.

Jackson is a stud, probably the 3rd best running back in the game. In 2006 he finished 5th in the NFL in rushing, with over 1,500 yards. The more telling statistic about Jackson and how much the Rams' success depends on him is this: he had 90 catches for 806 yards. Only WR Torry Holt had more catches for St. Louis.

Jackson's receptions should decrease in '07 because the Rams went out and got QB Marc Bulger some new targets.

Through free agency, the Rams acquired TE Randy McMichael and WR Drew Bennett. These two will offer Bulger some younger weapons to work with. Isaac Bruce, the WR opposite of Holt, is entering his 14th season in the NFL. Although he was productive in '06, he barely reached the 1,000 yard plateau. Bennett will give Linehan a couple more stable years at the position.

The offense is not what kept the Rams out the playoffs in '06; it was their defense. The unit finished 23rd in total defense. The Rams looked for help in the first round of the draft.

With the 13th overall pick, the Rams selected the Nebraska DE Adam Carriker. This is where the Rams made a mistake. There were plenty of more talented players available at the 13th spot. Although the Rams quietly finished the season ranked 7th in takeaways, they were terrible on 3rd down. They finished 31st in that category, and Florida DE Jarvis Moss would have been able to create more pressure on the QB than Carriker.

Carriker is good against the run and the pass, but he is not great at either one. He will be an every down player, which will help the Rams overall.

Prediction: 10-6 and in the playoffs.

NFC Contender #2- Carolina Panthers

The Panthers may have been the biggest disappointment in 2006; they finished 8-8 when many people thought they would represent the NFC in Miami.

Five of those 8 wins came against division opponents and it seems their divisional dominance is now in question. The New Orleans Saints are now everyone's pick for the NFC South, but look for Carolina to continue their strong play against familiar foes.

The Panthers beat the Saints twice in '06, and now they will be the hunter rather than the hunted. If QB Jake Delhomme can get his groove back than the Panthers should be able keep their edge over the Saints.

Just in case Delhomme doesn't play up to expectatios, the Panther brought in former Houston Texan QB David Carr. They Panthers now have the best 1-2 quarterback combo in the NFL, without the controversy—yet. Delhomme's QB rating last season was 13th in the league at 82.6. A respectable number, but he must improve if the Panthers are to get anywhere in '07.

The reason the Panthers need improvement from their QB position is because of the sad state of their running game. A few seasons ago it was their strong suit, in 2006 they finished 24th in the NFL.

They have two more-than-capable runners in DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams, so their fall from grace is startling. If they can indeed start running the ball effectively, they will make a serious run at the NFC Championship.

The two ingredients necessary to make a Super Bowl souffl? are a good defense and a strong running game. With one of the best front fours in football, the Panthers have one ingredient—a great defense. DE Julius Peppers is unblockable and DT Kris Jenkins is a beast up the middle.

There are plenty of areas in which this teams needs to improve. But with the talent of their skill players and defense, the team will be in the playoffs because they play in the NFC.

Prediction: 10-6 and in the playoffs.

The four teams mentioned above (Panthers, Rams, Broncos, and Bengals) did not make the playoff in 2006. If they are going to make it 2007, they must replace a team that did make it in 2006. Here are those pretenders…

AFC Pretender #1- Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs finished 9-7 last year and squeaked into the playoffs on a 2-game winning streak. They lost to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts in the first round, but they didn't belong there in the first place.

The Chiefs finished last season 16th in total offense and 16th in total defense. That means they are mediocre all around. Although they do have the 2nd best running back in the game in Larry Johnson, they will not be able to improve offensively because of their QB situation.

Last week a deal was finally reached between Kansas City and the Miami Dolphins sending QB Trent Green to the Fins for a conditional draft pick. Green gave K.C. the best shot at winning immediately but now he is gone and questions abound.

After Green's injury in week 1 of 2006, back-up QB Damon Huard came in and did a wonderful job. He played in 10 games, started 8 of them, threw 11 touchdowns versus 1 interception, and finished with a QB rating of 98.0.

It wasn't enough to convince head coach Herm Edwards that he could get the job done. Huard was benched once Green got healthy and Kansas City wasn't the same. It sounds as if getting rid of Green in favor of Huard would be a good thing but, it isn't that simple.

Also sitting behind Green on the depth chart in K.C. was their 3rd round draft choice in 2006, Brodie Croyle. Rumor has it that the Chiefs are extremely high on Croyle and think of the two—Huard and Croyle—someone will get the job done. Croyle will be the right guy for the job in a couple of years, but not in '07.

The problem is this: neither one of them have proven they can get the job done for the entire length of an NFL season. Trent Green has proven as much, but he's now soaking up the sun in South Florida. With a QB controversy brewing in K.C., this team will not play with the cohesion necessary to win.

Defensively, the Chiefs did make some free agent acquisitions. They brought in an old friend, LB Donnie Edwards, who is aging but is still a good cover linebacker. They also brought in LB Napoleon Harris, who intercepted 3 passes for the Vikings in 2006.

The defense will improve, despite letting S Sammy Knight and DE Eric Hicks go. Its on offense that this team will struggle. Larry Johnson can't do everything, and the competition in their division and conference is just too tough.

Prediction: 8-8 and not in the playoffs.

AFC Pretender #2- New York Jets

The Jets went a heroic 10-6 in 2006 and slipped into the playoffs. The team really showed guts and courage and earned their way in, but 2007 will not be as kind.

At times, it seemed their new head coach Eric Mangini willed them to victory in 2006. How he got QB Chad Pennington to play as well as he did is still a mystery. Pennington finshed 10th in passing yards, but had just one more touchdown than interception. That will not get them in '07.

The Jets did make progress in their running game by swapping their 2nd round pick with the Bears for RB Thomas Jones. After Chicago finally gave Jones the shot that Arizona and Tampa Bay wouldn't, Jones performed very well. He rushed for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons but there just wasn't enough carries to go around for him and Cedric Benson.

Other than Jones, the Jets did nothing to address the fact that they finished 25th in total offense in 2006. If your team did not win the Super Bowl, then there must be a few missing pieces, right?

Their defense finished 20th in the NFL and the only thing they did of significance was draft Pitt CB Darrelle Revis. This will turn out to be a great a pick, but without bringing in some talented, veteran defenders, this unit will not improve much either.

Prediction: 7-9 and not in the playoffs.

NFC Pretender #1- New York Giants

The New York Giants finished 8-8 in 2006, after starting the season 6-2. The problem with the Giants, other than the fact that the face of their franchise just prematurely retired, is their head coach.

It appears that nobody can stand playing for Tom Coughlin. He is a hard-nosed, no-nonsense coach. More like a drill instructor for teenage boys than a leader of grown men. Last season it finally wore on the team and they finished 2-6 down the stretch.

Remember right after the Giants' season was ended by the Philadelphia Eagles in the first round last year? Everyone was just waiting to hear that Coughlin was fired. Well, that never happened and the Giants' players are forced to endure at least one more year of boot camp.

The New York Giants have enough talent to win in this league. RB Brandon Jacobs can and will fill in for the retired Tiki Barber and QB Eli Manning is only getting better.

Their defense needs to improve, though, after finishing 25th in '06. They addressed the problem in the draft, when they took defenders with 3 of their first 4 picks.

It matters not, however, because their coach remains the same. If the team does not like the coach, it does not matter how well he can draw up X's and O's; the team simply will not buy into his system.

Until Coughlin is replaced, this team will not make the playoffs.

Prediction: 6-10 and not in the playoffs.

NFC Pretender #2- Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys finished 2006 9-7 and entered the playoffs on a 2-game losing streak. Their lack of momentum showed when they lost in the first round to the Seattle Seahawks.

Their biggest free agent pick up this offseason came in a huge package labeled Leonard Davis. The 6'6'' 366 lbs. tackle signed a 7-year, $49.6 million dollar deal that made other free agent offensive lineman go nuts. The Cowboys and Davis set a new standard for contracts for the big guys up front. In Davis, it was money well spent.

They also brought in the former Super Bowl-winning QB Brad Johnson to back up their young gun Tony Romo. It was a good move because in Romo is where the ‘Boys should begin questioning themselves.

Entering his 5th NFL season, Romo was all set to be a career back up until Drew Bledsoe's performance went south. In came and Romo and, with no pressure, he got hot.

In his first 6 games, Romo threw 12 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. In his last five before the playoffs, he threw 6 TDs and 7 INTs. When it was clear that the Cowboys would be in the playoffs and the spotlight shifted to Romo, he failed miserably.

Romo and the ‘Boys will have help from a one of the best RB tandems in football. RBs Julius Jones, the workhorse, and Marion Barber III, the touchdown maker, will give defenses something to plan for.

And when talking about Dallas, there is always the Terrell Owens question: will he or will he not be a good teammate today? Not to mention his tendency to drop passes. All things considered, T.O. is a great playmaker but will not give Romo any slack when the QB begins to struggle. This relationship has break-up written all over it, and it will be Owens' fault.

The biggest difference in Dallas this upcoming season is the change at head coach.

Although new head coach Wade Phillips is good, he's no Bill Parcells. Replacing Bill Parcells with Wade Phillips is like divorcing Angelina Jolie and marrying the cafeteria lady.

The good news for Dallas is that Phillips is a wizard of the 3-4 scheme. The Cowboys have the personnel and Phillips has the know-how to put a good defense together but it will not be enough.

This team will fail in 2007 because QB Tony Romo will not live up to the hype. Not only do the ‘Boys play in the NFC East--one of the most competitive divisions in football--their non-divisional games include match-ups against the Patriots, Bears, Rams, and Panthers. It will be close, but the Dallas Cowboys will barely miss the playoffs in '07, just as they barely made it in '06.

Prediction: 9-7 and not in the playoffs.

To recap: the Denver Broncos and the Cincinnati Bengals will replace the New York Jets and the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC playoffs in 2007. The St. Louis Rams and the Carolina Panthers will replace the New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC playoffs.

It might not seem fair, but there can only be one champion.

Good luck, Indianapolis. These teams and more are gunning for you.