Top 12 Fantasy "Sleepers"
Posted by Don M. Dumas on 08.15.2007
Can't figure out who to pick in the later rounds of your fantasy draft? 411's Don M. Dumas gives you 12 players that you should be able to pick in the 8 round and beyond!!
t's time to wrap up the fantasy draft column. I've already covered the top 12 running backs, quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends, defenses, and kickers. In this final column I will cover the top 12 "sleeper" picks, as well as a few players to avoid.
This list is not really based on any position in particular; the only criteria for making this list is going unmentioned in my previous articles.
Before we begin, I should point out that these are in no particular order. And just to clarify, not all on this list will fit the term "sleeper". In fact, the first three on the list will probably be drafted in the second and third rounds in most drafts (not on my team, though). Let's begin….
1. Reggie Bush, RB-New Orleans Saints- Bush had an outstanding rookie performance in '06. He return punts well, he caught the ball well and, in the second half of the season, he ran the ball well. He will no doubt add to his 1,307 yards from scrimmage, but he does still share the backfield with Deuce McAllister.
2. Vince Young, QB-Tennessee Titans- Obviously, Young is a playmaker. He somehow finds a way to win, which is quite an accomplishment in Tennessee. However, that doesn't always translate to fantasy success. To get 522 yards on the ground along with 7 TDs is a pleasant addition to any fantasy QB. I am still weary of having a number one QB who threw more INTs than TDs and had a rating of 66.7.
3. Andre Johnson, WR-Houston Texans- Johnson's 103 catches in 2006 automatically makes a worthy fantasy receiver, but his 5 TDs were not enough to validate him as a number 1. He averaged a meager 11.1 yards per catch, and he now has a new quarterback. I doubt he will catch as many passes in '07 as he did in '06, but he should still get his hands on a lot of balls.
4. Brandon Jacobs, RB-New York Giants- With Tiki Barber retired, Jacobs was primed to take over full-time duties in New York. Then, the Giants brought in Rueben Droughns and questions of Jacobs' ability to shoulder the load arose. I think Jacobs will win the job outright, without splitting carries with Droughns, They are both the same type of back, and Jacobs averaged a full yard better per carry than Droughns in '06.
5. Mark Clayton, WR-Baltimore Ravens- Although Derrick Mason caught more balls than him in '06, Clayton had more yards and more touchdowns. Entering his third year, Clayton is poised to breakout in '07. Mark my words, he will eclipse the 1,000 yard mark and catch more than the 5 TDs he caught in '06.
6. Tony Scheffler, TE-Denver Broncos- Scheffler only caught 18 passes in 2006, but he averaged 15.9 yards per catch. He started slow, but as soon as Scheffler and QB Jay Cutler became starters late in the season, they played very well together. Don't be fooled by Denver signing Daniel Graham; he is a run-blocking tight end. When Cutler drops back to throw, it will be Scheffler on the other end of his passes, not Graham.
7. Jerious Norwood, RB-Atlanta Falcons- Warrick Dunn is back at practice following back surgery 3 weeks ago. Whether or not he's at 100% doesn't matter, Norwood will get more carries than Dunn in '07. Norwood is bigger--and just as fast--as Dunn, and the loss of Mike Vick will ensure that new head coach Bobby Petrino relies heavily on the two backs. With Norwood getting 633 yards and an average of 6.4 per carry, the Falcons would be nuts not to give him 200 carries in 2007.
8. Eric Moulds, WR-Tennessee Titans- Vince Young needed somebody to throw to, so the Titans went out and got a proven wide receiver in Moulds. While in Buffalo, Moulds proved that he is more than capable of being the go-to-guy, and if Young hopes to build on last year's success than he will throw to Moulds a lot in '07.
9. Vincent Jackson, WR-San Diego Chargers- To say San Diego has a lot of weapons on offense would be an understatement, so Jackson is at best third in line in terms of getting his number called. However, fellow WR Eric Parker is hurt and Jackson must step up and be a reliable target for Philip Rivers. In '06 he did just that down the stretch, catching 6 TDs.
10. David Carr, QB-Carolina Panthers- As of now, the quarterback job in Carolina belongs to Jake Delhomme. It doesn't take a genius to know that somebody in Carolina must not be happy with Delhomme if they brought in David Carr. The only QB to start for Houston in their franchise history, Carr suffered through season after season; getting sacked more than Paris Hilton. Word is, Carr will win the job sooner than later. It will be wise to draft Carr as a second or third QB and just wait for him to take the job from Jake.
11. Brandon Jackson, RB-Green Bay Packers- Normally I would avoid rookies, but rookie RBs are a different story. Jackson, the Nebraska product, as so far performed extremely well in training camp and Vernand Morency doesn't exactly have a strangle hold on the job. With Brett Favre returning for his final season, the Packers have no time to waste. Favre wants to win now, and Jackson gives them the best chance.
12. Owen Daniels, TE-Houston Texans- Last year was Owens' first in the NFL, and he played great. He had 34 catches for 352 yards and 5 touchdowns. Five is not a very high number, but consider that the entire Texans team only threw 14 touchdowns and 5 becomes a more significant number. Daniels will be a major component of Houston's offense in 2007 and he is a solid number 1 tight end that you can probably draft in the 10th round or later.
Now that we've covered the "sleepers," let's move on to the players that you want to avoid like Lindsay Lohan in traffic.
1. Clinton Portis, RB-Washington Redskins- Portis only rushed for 523 yards in '06. Of course, the reason for that is because he was injured, but that doesn't change the fact the Redskins' offense is terrible. Of course with the exception of ‘06, Portis has never rushed for less than 1,300 yards, but he has had as little as 5 TDs in a full season. I get a bad feeling about Portis in '07 so I'm going to avoid him.
2. Daunte Culpepper, JaMarcus Russell, Josh McCown, QBs-Oakland Raiders- It matters not who is behind center in Oakland, their offense will be terrible. The line is still weak, their receivers are still weak, and it doesn't look good for 2007. Their defense will win them some games, but the offense will hold this team back at least one more year.
3. Joe Horn, WR-Atlanta Falcons- Horn is a seasoned, wily veteran. However, it appears that his QB is going to be Joey Harrington. Even if Vick plays, Horn will still see a huge drop in numbers. New head coach Bobby Petrino might be a great offensive mind, but he can't work miracles. The Falcons are a running team; Horn will not perform that great.
4. Matt Schaub, QB-Houston Texans- The Texans paid way too much money for a guy that hasn't proven that he could win consistently in the NFL. The Texans offense will not somehow ‘click' out of the blue because the replaced a former number one draft pick with someone who should have been a career back up.
5. Byron Leftwich, David Garrard-Jacksonville Jaguars- Nobody can do their job effectively if they know that lurking right behind is their replacement should they make a mistake. Leftwich and Garrard are doomed in Jacksonville because of the pressure and controversy surrounding them.
So there you have it; the fantasy draft column is complete. Good luck to all this upcoming season!
