The 5 Step Drop 09.27.07: Regular Season Week 4
Posted by Javier Zuniga on 09.27.2007
Sexy Rexy Sits Down, Tom & His Baby's Momma, and The Pats First Loss of the Season
Hello and welcome to this week's edition of The 5 Step Drop.
If you took a look at last week's column, you saw that I had another amazing week of prognostication: 4 out of 5. That brings my season record to a ridiculous 11- 4. If my "real" job didn't pay me in old bottles and packs of Top Ramen I would've laid some cash out on some of these games and now I would be running around in a coat made out of Unicorn fur and shoes made out of baby seal pelts..
And to add insult to impoverishment, I'm doing great in my column picks but I'm a miserable 0-3 in Fantasy Football. Terrible. I'd won my league two of the last three years and made the play-offs five years running and now I'm a complete mess. The first RB I drafted (Reggie Bush) has been a bust, one of my other RB's is done for the season and – in the most frustrating situation of all for Fantasy football player – I've have player on the bench the last two weeks that could've won my game.
What is that, you say? You don't care about my Fantasy team? This isn't a Fantasy column. Well, isn't that about the most selfish thing I've heard? I guess it's all about you Mr. Reader…You, You, You.
I give and give and give and this is what I get? Fine, go read that nutty column from the Geico cave man and see if I care.
Speaking of shaky substitution patterns, the big news in the NFL this week is that Coach Lovie Smith of the Chicago Bears has decided to sit down QB Rex Grossman to try to turn around a season that has gotten off to an uninspiring 1-2 start. The defending NFC champs are suddenly facing the prospect of having to chase down the Green Bay Packer and, as I mentioned in my previous column, Sexy Rexy is a gamble every time he steps on the field. He's off to a miserable start and, at this point, Lovie must feel like the possible benefits no longer outweigh the plays that Rex makes to kill his team.
I predicted last week that Da Bears would beat the Cowboys because I thought that Tony Romo would be the one making the big mistakes late. I was wrong (Don't get it mixed up though. I'm a huge Cowboys fan so I couldn't have been more happy to screw that prediction up). Turns out, the Sex Cannon was the one throwing the ball up for grabs, especially once Chicago got behind late in the game. If you look at that performance, along with the way Rexy played against a San Diego team that has been sliced up by New England and Green Bay in the two weeks since they faced Da Bears, it's not a mystery why Lovie made the change. The bigger mystery might be why he waited so long.
This is why: Upside. Potential.Charisma. The It Factor. Call it what you will, but there is something very intriguing about a QB who "might" be able to make that one big play between winning and losing. Sexy Rexy had a certain something. That's what his coaches at the University of Florida saw. That's why his teammates stuck by him in Chicago. There was always the possibility of something special. And the Bears coaches must have felt they needed something more than a "caretaker."
Plus, let's face it: back-up QB Brian Griese isn't that much better. Look at their career numbers: Rex Grossman – 27 G 28 TDs 32 INTs 14 FMBL (7 lost) a 69.3 rating and almost one and a half turnovers a game. Not good. And Griese? 81 G 104 TDs 80 INTs 20 FMBL (6 lost) a pedestrian 84.5 rating and a little over one turnover a game. He's had one really good "season" (10 solid starts in Denver in 2000) and two decent seasons ('01 in Denver and '04 in Tampa) over the course of his nine year career. But every where he's gone, he's eventually been replaced by a QB with a bigger arm who's a little more….well, I hate to say it…SEXY.
Rex is taking tons of blame for Da Bears' bad start. And the game this week (see below) really is a "must win." But if Cedric Benson doesn't start running like a #1 pick, and the Chicago defense doesn't stop allowing big plays, it won't make a difference who starts. My opinion? Sexy Rexy is back starting in the next couple of weeks because Brian Griese doesn't give the offense that "spark" that the fans are expecting. And Da Bears still make the play-offs in a weak NFC.
Now let's take a look at the rest of this week's SEXIEST match-ups.
Monday, October 01, New England Patriots (3-0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (1-2): Last week, in a prediction that can really only be described as THE BOLDEST PREDICTION IN THE HISTORY OF INTERNET JOURNALISM, I said that the Packers would upset the Chargers in Green Bay. Well, hold on to your knickers: I predict that the Bengals beat the Pats this week on Monday Night Football.
I know what you're thinking: the Bengals secondary would probably rather punch a bear in the genitals than try to stop the Brady/Moss connection right now.
But I have my reasons. First off, Douchebag Bill has shown that the regular season is almost meaningless to him. As long as he wins his division, he'll sacrifice putting the pedal down and putting up fancy looking regular season stats to make sure his teams are postseason ready. Secondly, Douchebag Bill is notoriously vindictive, so you know he's looking ahead a little to his game next week against his former employers the Cleveland Browns. Thirdly, and this is the big one, there's no way in hell Tom is operating straight when that sanctimonious ex-girlfriend Bridget Moynahan is on the cover of the new issue of OK! under a caption that practically blubbers LIFE WITHOUT DADDY.
Quick aside: Bridget, you cow, I know the realities of life. I know how hard it is to be a single parent in this world. My own mom practically raised me and my sister on her own for as well adjusted as our old man was. But am I REALLY supposed to feel bad for you because you're not with Tommy Boy? Successful actress and model…..making millions of dollars…being supported by one of the most successful athletes in the world today….somehow I'm supposed to think your situation is comparable to the REAL single moms in this country, raising kids on 25 K a year and getting food stamps because their kids' father haven't been seen around town in nine months? You're upset because you're Super Bowl MVP boyfriend decided he's rather sleep with a Victoria's Secret Model and so you bat your teary eyes and REAL people are supposed to empathize?? God, I hate celebrities.
Anyways, Bengals QB Carson Palmer is off to a terrific start, the Bengals defense is frisky at times, and there's enough here to believe the Pats aren't going 16-0.
Sunday September 30, Chicago Bears (1-2) @ Detroit Lions (2-1): Speaking of the aforementioned Sexy Rexy and the QB who replaced him...
How big is this game for Chicago? They have dominated this division for the last two seasons. They were prohibitive favorites to return to the Super Bowl as NFC representatives this season. If they lose this game, they would be two games behind Detroit, and possibly three games behind Green Bay. The season wouldn't be "over" per se, but the buzzards would definitely be circling. This is definitely a tough situation for Brian Griese to step into.
And as if Da Bears don't have enough to worry about on the offensive side of the ball, they just got lit up by the Dallas Cowboys passing game and now they travel to Ford Field to face a Lions team that is currently ranked 1st in Passing Offense (345.3 yds/gm) and 3rd in Total Offense (413.0 yds/gm) over-all. Lions QB Jon Kitna is having a career year and the Lions just got back their multi-talented RB Kevin Jones.
So there's no way Chicago wins here, true? Normally, I'd say yes, but the Lions are also still terrible on defense (near the bottom in every statistical category) and Lovie has a knack for pulling out wins like this. The Chicago defense will force some turnovers. The Chicago special team will create some offense. And in the end, Da Bears pull out a victory, despite the fact that when the game is over the stat sheet will look as if there's no way in hell they should've even been in the game.
And somewhere, Dennis Green will know EXACTLY what the Lions are feeling.
Sunday September 30, Denver Broncos (2-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (3-0): On first glance, this looks like it could be a match-up of two of the better teams in the AFC. On second glance, the Broncos look like they stink and this game is going to reveal them for the pretenders they are.
Let's see: In Week 1 they beat Buffalo on five field goals despite two misses in the game by the normally automatic Jason Elam and a fumble out of bounds on the final drive by QB Jay Cutler. In Week 2 they stole an OT victory over the pathetic Oakland Raider. And then last week, when finally faced with a halfway decent team in the Jacksonville Jaguars, they were physically dominated throughout much of the game and beaten soundly 23-14.
The Broncos balanced offensive attack, which had piled up 911 yards the first two weeks of the season, managed just 265 and scored on two of 10 possessions, turning the ball over on an interception, a fumble and twice on downs. Even more concerting was that the Jags held the ball for nearly 40 minutes, and when all the dust was settled, Denver was the owner of one of the league's worst rushing defenses.
One of my good friends (and my boss at the aforementioned job that pays me in old house shoes and toaster niblin's) are huge Colts fans. So as a verile he-man, it's hard to say something nice about their team. But seriously, are you kidding me here? The Broncos aren't even in the same class as Indy.
They can't defend the run, they can't finish drives, and now they're facing the Colts in the RCA Dome with Peyton Manning at the height of his "Yes, I'm a Huge Dork But I'm Also the Best Player in the NFL" powers? And RB Joseph Addai is looking more and more like he might have been the steal of last year's draft?
Colts win. This won't even be close.
Sunday September 30, Seattle Seahawks (2-1) @ San Francisco 49ers (2-1): Now, the NFC is filled with fairly mediocre teams. And the NFC West in particular looks like it's going to be one of those divisions where teams spend more time giving up the lead then actually winning the big game to take control of their destiny. But somebody is winning this division. And a lot of questions are going to be answered here.
Seattle has looked tough, prepared, and has had a very balanced attack through three games. They could easily be undefeated, their only loss on a lass second field-goal at Arizona after overcoming a 17 point deficit.
San Francisco, meanwhile, won two games late in 4th quarter comebacks before getting decimated at Pittsburgh. Despite their minus 17 point differential up to this point in the season, they are 2-0 in their division and a win here will give them a huge advantage in play-off tiebreakers coming down the stretch. They are winning ugly. But they're winning. Hey…even the best among us has had to take home the chubby girl with the questionable teeth once or twice. A victory is a victory.
So what happens here with two teams that look so much alike? Physical, aggressive defense, solid QB play, marquee running backs, and fans who spend way too much time worrying about their solar powered hybrid SUVs….Well, I want very much to say that the 49ers win. It's just fun as a fan to see a young team grow into their full potential. But the Seahawks are simply too savvy, too strong on the ground, and have been in these kinds of games too many times to not make them the pick here. The NFC West still belongs to the Great Northwest. For one more season, anyway.
Seahawks win.
Sunday September 30, Pittsburgh Steelers (3-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-2): Why is this game on the list? Well, it goes back to what we talked about in the column's opening: replacing the "franchise" QB who, it turns out, isn't so very "franch-tastic."
Last week, Arizona's Matt Leinart was replaced late against Baltimore by Kurt War-HOLY CRAP KURT WARNER IS STILL IN THE NFL???!! Who knew?
Anyways, Warner came in, the Cards went no-huddle, and Warner proceeded to go 15/20 for 258 yards and 2 TDs against the same Baltimore defense that made Leinart look as soft as Jake Gyllenhal on a West Hollywood shopping spree.
Now, everyone knows Jesus loves Kurt and his crazy born-again wife/grandmother with the nutty silver high-top fade hairdo. But there's just no excuse for the way Matt performed. He's looked lost this year, making consistently bad reads, misfiring on passes, and having real trouble moving the ball despite having maybe the best pair of WRs in the NFL. So does Matt deserve to be replaced the way Sexy Rexy was? In this case, no.
Arizona is still rebuilding. They aren't poised for a Super Bowl run. And, despite his many issues, the Cards need to find out if Leinart is their guy long-term. There's been questions about him since Day One. Does he have enough arm strength? Was his success at USC due to the talent around him? Does he have the drive necessary to be an elite QB, or is he more interested in living like Vince from ‘Entourage?' (if you've ever seen Matt work a room on Sunset Blvd, you'd lean towards Vince). The point is, no one really knows whether or not Matt is The Guy. And no one really expects the Cardinals to win here. Pittsburgh will roll. But if he can shake off the bad showing of last week and keep his team close here, it will go a long way towards proving that he's here to stay.
If not, I guess the Cardinals can still get aboard the Holy Roller Express.
Well that's all for this week. As always, you can send any feedback to javy_z@yahoo.com.
