This Week in Fantasy Football 11.01.07: Week 9 Edition
Posted by Mark Crouse on 11.01.2007
What are the Twiffys? Read on to find out!
Welcome to another addition of This Week in Fantasy Football. After making some bold predictions last week, I'll give some general advice for Week 9, as well as award the first annual Twiffys, my midseason awards for fantasy football 2007, and my first self-written mailbag. Why write my own mailbag you may ask? Because no one else wrote me and it's a good gimmick.
No one has said a single word about any matchup in Week 9 other than Patriots vs. Colts. I'll be the Master of the Obvious here and recommend playing anyone and everyone in this game other than the defenses. It should be a real barnburner, with everyone involved should at least get a piece of the fantasy scoring pie. Who will win? Who cares, this is a fantasy football column.
Look for big weeks from the following players: Chad Johnson vs. Buffalo, Derek Anderson and Braylon Edwards vs. Seattle, Pittsburgh's defense vs. Baltimore on Monday night, and Philip Rivers vs. Minnesota.
The following players will score lower than expected: Steve Smith for the second week in a row vs. Tennessee. Willie Parker vs. Baltimore, Donovan McNabb will go back to his mediocre ways vs. Dallas, and the New Orleans offense will be slowed down by Jacksonville.
And now, it's time for the first annual This Week in Fantasy Football awards, midseason edition, or as I so affectionately refer to them, the Twiffys. And now, here's your host, Wink Martindale.
The Sean Waltman X-factor Award for Unpredictability-
-Drew Brees
-Steve Smith
-Larry Johnson
And the winner is...Steve Smith! Maybe the most dominant receiver in the league, Smith can't seem to get any looks from a struggling set of quarterbacks on an offense with no other real playmakers. With three games with five or less fantasy points, Smith can carry your team or leave it barren on a weekly basis.
The Willy Wonka Pure Imagination Award for Excellence in Playmaking-
-Adrian Peterson
-Randy Moss
-Devin Hester
And the winner is...Devin Hester! In fantasy, where kick returners don't mean much, Hester's Madden Highlight Stick-esque moves make him so much of a threat to take one to the house, I've seen some struggling fantasy owners start him in a flex spot, hoping to capture lightning in a bottle the way the Bears did when they installed him at receiver and were rewarded with an 81-yard touchdown vs. Minnesota in Week 6.
The Matrix Revolutions Most Overhyped Award-
-Reggie Bush
-Vincent Jackson
-Laurence Maroney
And the winner is...Reggie Bush! The Subway pitchman was on the tips of every owners' tongues come draft time as a projected late first-round pick after a sensational rookie campaign. With the feature back title passed to him after Deuce McAllister tore up his knee, Bush owners anticipated the fulfillment of Bush's sizable potential. With no 100 yard rushing games and only three total touchdowns, Bush has not put up first-round numbers.
The Stewie Griffin "What the Deuce?" Award for Confounding Statistics-
Quarterback-
-Tom Brady-2431 passing yards, 30 TD, 2 INT
-Derek Anderson-1744 passing yards, 17 TD, 8 INT
-Drew Brees-1730 passing yards, 9 TD, 10 INT
Winner: Tom Brady-While the emergence of former 6th round pick Anderson, and the frustration-filled first half of Brees are certainly unexpected, Brady's dominance of the league's defenses has boggled all minds. Brady is on pace for 60 TD passes, 11 more than Peyton Manning's NFL record. The great thing about owning Brady is that regardless of how good New England's season is, they'll keep the starters in longer than any dominant team has to. Get ready for more eye-popping stats in the second half.
Winner: Shaun Alexander-For a guy who had experts gushing about a return to dominance, Alexander has managed to confound owners who drafted him somewhere in the middle of the first round. He has produced next to nothing, and doesn't look to be picking up the pace anytime soon. Totally baffling considering the guy had the single-season TD record not long ago.
Winner: Randy Moss-Apparently, rumors of Moss' demise were greatly exaggerated, and the owner in your league that was a believer (or got him on the cheap), has profited greatly. He's on pace for his best year ever, the beneficiary of the other-worldly offense New England has put together. Sell high? Heck, no. Moss has no ceiling and no one can seem to stop him, since they have to cover Welker, Stallworth, and the rest of the crew, as well as committing enough defenders to stopping the running game.
Congrats to all our winners, and thanks to everyone for tuning in for the midseason edition of the Twiffys. Check back in after the regular season for the final award winners.
Completely Fabricated Mailbag Time!
Dear Mark,
My team is struggling, but I'm still on the fringe on playoff contention. With my league's trade deadline fast approaching, everyone in the league is asking about Ladanian Tomlinson, my only real bargaining chip. Do I trade LDT to improve the rest of my fading squad, or hope the big man can put together some great weeks and lead me to the playoffs? I need help to turn this season around!
Desperate in Des Moines
Well Desperate, my advice is to trade Tomlinson to help other areas of your team. While LDT is one of fantasy's top performers, it sounds like you have at least two positions that are yielding very little in fantasy production. This is a perfect example of using your own opinions to analyze trades. Tomlinson has averaged 18.7 points per game, but he has only had one dominant game that would carry your team, his 214 total yard, four TD game against Oakland. Will there be others? Of course. The guy is still on a great offense and has not suffered from any injuries or other factors that would slow his production. He is fourth in the NFL in rushing yardage, with 617, and has seven total touchdowns. The important factor? What do you think he will do for the rest of the year. Put a number on it and act accordingly.
Trading an explosive player like Tomlinson requires a knock-your-socks-off kind of offer. If you have already had inquiries for LDT's services, put out a message on your league's board stating that you'd be taking trade offers for him until a certain time. This will force the interested parties into action. Considering Tomlinson's disappointing first half, I'd bump up his expected average per game to about 23. If you can make up that production with the players you would receive in trade, it is one to consider. Do not, however, take a collection of mediocre talent for a superstar. One, or preferably more than one player you receive must have team-carrying potential. There are many factors involved, but trading Tomlinson is not out of the question if your team is struggling.
Dear Mark,
With Tom Brady's world-altering performance so far, is the theory that you must pick running backs with your first two picks still an absolute? I would have rather ended up with Brady over most of the running backs in the first round.
Regretful in Reading
Great question, Regretful. There are two factors at work where this strategy is concerned: the performance of the running back pool, and the performance of other positions, specifically quarterbacks. The Running Back Theory is predicated on the fact that each team must start two running backs while each NFL team has one starter. This means in a ten-team league, twenty starting running backs will be in lineups every week. Take into account injuries and byes, and each owner really needs four running backs he or she is comfortable with. That means forty running backs are in play per league. It's easy math to see that the NFL doesn't have forty legit running backs. Therefore, the value of running backs, particularly top backs, are skewed accordingly.
Take a look at 2007 though. Time shares have diluted the running back pool and have created more startable running back options for fantasy owners, while dampening the value of many top backs. Case in point: the leader in rushing touchdowns so far this season is Joseph Addai, with seven. In fact, only five backs have at least five rushing touchdowns. What does this all mean? An elite receiver or quarterback is more valuable and more draftable than ever before.
The change really becomes noticeable in the second round of drafts. Hindsight is always 20/20, but would you rather have Carson Palmer and Brandon Jacobs in rounds two and four, or Cedric Benson and Donovan McNabb in the same respective rounds? The point is that selecting a pedestrian back higher than you should because you need a second back makes less sense than taking an elite QB or WR. Waiting, if only one or two rounds, on your second running back can make a huge difference in maximizing your roster's value.
Star running backs are less of a sure thing than they ever have been as well. Let's break down what the first round of a lot of-drafts looked like for a ten-team league and how those players' stats look so far:
1.LaDainian Tomlinson-top scoring running back, only on pace for about 16 touchdowns
2.Steven Jackson-injured for much of '07, still lingering health concerns
3.Joseph Addai-living up to his billing completely
4.Larry Johnson-506 rushing yards, two touchdowns
5.Frank Gore-hampered by injuries, no marquee games
6.Shaun Alexander-discussed above, pretty much a bust
7.Willie Parker-second in NFL in rushing yardage, only two scores
8.Brian Westbrook-as good as advertised
9.Peyton Manning-his usual consistent self, 13 TD, only 3 INT
10.Rudi Johnson-injured and unspectacular when healthy
Three injury-plagued picks, four justified picks, and three out-and-out disappointments. Running backs just aren't as sure a thing as they used to be. It will be interesting to see if draft results next year change due to this year's stats.
That's all for TWIFF for now. Best of luck this week, and check back next Friday for more fantasy insight.
