Behind the Numbers 11.02.07: The Big Game
Posted by Chris Widner on 11.02.2007
This weekend we're going to be treated to a great match-up between the Colts and Patriots. Who's going to win? Your guess is as good as mine, so take a look to see who I got...
It's Friday again, and time for another dose of Behind the Numbers. This week we'll take a look at the biggest regular season game in quite awhile as the Patriots travel to the RCA Dome to take on the Colts. Before that, however, we'll cover the top stories of the week.
1) The Red Sox win the World Series. Yes, this is an NFL column, but I want to tip my hat to the Sox for their incredible run in the playoffs ending in a sweep of a very talented Rockies team. For the first time in my 26.91 years I actually made an effort to watch baseball, and I was not disappointed. The Sox have some incredibly talented young players in Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, and Papelbon and they are going to be fun to watch for years to come. I almost bought myself a Pedroia jersey the other day, but I couldn't bring myself to part with $70 for it. Let me just end this by saying that those guys are serious gamers.
2) Tony Romo's contract extension. Da' Boys finally have a franchise quarterback since Troy Aikman's retirement. Some people feel like Da' Boys overpaid at $67.5 million over 6 years ($31 million guaranteed) but I'm not going to complain one bit. Keep in mind we've put up with the likes of Ryan Freakin' Leaf and Quincy Carter, so the team has made worse decisions than spending a lot of money on one player. Plus, if you're Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, you can continue covering hard hitting stories like Romo partying with Britney Spears.
3) Cedric Benson lashes out. "They're not watching the games or the plays. They're just throwing out criticism. Do I need to run with more of a burst? No. And [expletive] them," Benson said. Wow, that's more passion than he's shown on the field. He went on to point out that he only had 13 carries and if he had 8-10 more he would have hit the 100 yard mark. I'm a huge Texas fan (Hook 'em Horns!) but I can't defend this knucklehead. I understand he's not the reason for the Bears' struggles, but he isn't helping the situation. It's not his numbers that have people concerned, it's the way he plays. On some plays you'd think he was a fullback with the way he runs.
4) Chad Pennington is benched for Kellen Clemens. The season is a wash already, so it's not going to matter, but at least the pissy Jets fans get their wish. I feel bad for Pennington, though, because there's nothing he can do to please the fans. He could pass for 300 yards and 3 tds and the fans will still boo him. Clemens could throw 4 picks and be called the savior of the franchise. Don't get me wrong, Clemens is going to be a good player, but I don't think he's done enough to warrant the change.
5) Patriots "run up the score." Redskins LB Randall Godfrey said "I said something to (Belichick) after the game. I told him, ‘You need to show some respect for the game.' You just don't do that. I don't care how bad it is. You're up 35 points and you're still throwing deep? That's no respect." According to Godfrey, coaches like Joe Gibbs would never do such a thing. WRONG! Back in 1983, the Gibbs-led Redskins beat the St. Louis Cardinals 45-7. Then they beat the Los Angeles Rams 51-7 in the playoffs that year. Somehow 52-7 is a lot different than 51-7 when you're not on the team with 7. I have one thing to say to all of you criticizing the Patriots for "running up the score." SHUT UP. This is football! We like to think of these players as warriors on the field, and then they whine like a 5 year old. I'll gladly trade in my 9-5 job to get my butt knocked all over the field 52-7 and you want sympathy? Let me just end this now. SHUT UP. Thank you, drive through...
Now onto the big game. For the past few years one of the biggest debates in football is "who ya got?" Is it Manning with his ridiculous statistics and his ability to out-think opposing teams? Or is it Brady, the guy from seemingly nowhere who just finds a way to win the big games? The truth is you can't go wrong with either one, which is why this debate is still burning today. Many people, myself included, have maintained that Brady doesn't have the numbers that Manning does because he doesn't have the weapons that Manning has. So far Brady has backed that up now that he has Moss, Welker, Stallworth, etc. But the truth is, Manning is still incredible. While those two will be the main story this week, we have two incredible teams going head to head. This is being called, by some, the most hyped regular season game ever and they could be right. There is a good chance that we're seeing a preview of the AFC Championship game on Sunday.
Since 2002 the Patriots and Colts have met seven times, including three postseason matchups. During the regular season the teams are tied 2-2, but the Patriots have the edge in playoff games 2-1. What many people forget, however, is that the Colts have won the past three meetings including a 40-21 thrashing back in 2005. Obviously these teams have made some personnel changes since last season, most notably the Patriots, so these are not the same two teams facing off. One huge advantage for the Colts is going to be the home-field advantage. The Colts are 25-2 at home during the regular season since 2004. During that same time span the Patriots are 22-6 on the road, a very impressive record. The Indianapolis crowd will be a factor, no doubt, but the Patriots have been incredibly focused all year. So Colts fans will need to be on their best (or worst) behavior on Sunday to distract the Patriots into a false start or two. When you have teams like these facing off, it is the little things that can make a big difference.
During post-season, Tom Brady is 61 of 98 for 613 yards, 3 td, and 2 picks against the Colts. Although unspectacular, he's been efficient which is why the Patriots have the one game edge in the postseason between the two teams. Keep in mind that the Patriots were one drive away from going to the Super Bowl instead last year. As for Manning, he's a very unimpressive 77 of 136 for 824 yards, 2 td, and 6 picks in the post-season against the Patriots. His worst performance was in the 2003 AFC Championship game where he threw 4 picks. Luckily for Manning, this is the regular season where he has played very well against the Patriots. In the regular season he is 93 of 150 for 1181 yards, 11 td, and 4 ints against the Patriots, including last year when he went for 20 of 36 for 326 yards, 2 td, and 1 int. Brady, on the other hand is 94 of 141 for 1037 yards, 8 td, and 7 int against the Colts in the regular season. And considering that the Colts have won the last two regular season meetings, he has a slight edge in that category.
In a strange twist of fate, perhaps, Manning will be the one with fewer weapons this weekend. Marvin Harrison is likely to play but has been out for 2 of the 3 recent games for the Colts. If he does play, he won't be at 100%, which is a huge blow to the Colts. Brady, on the other hand, comes into this game with a ton of offensive weapons. Ben Watson has missed the last 2 games, so that could be a factor, but when you have the receiving corp that the Patriots possess, you're going to be fine. The biggest question marks for the Patriots are Richard Seymour and Asante Samuel. Seymour missed the second half of last week's "game" against the Redskins, while Samuel missed Wednesday's practice. I can't believe I'm saying this, but Samuel is the more important of the two players, so if he's out this weekend, the defense is really going to have to step it up. As for the Colts' defense, linebackers Tyjuan Hagler and Freddie Keiaho are probable and questionable as of this moment. That could open the middle of the field for the Patriots, which would be deadly. The Colts need both players Sunday or they will have a huge hole to fill.
So I'm sure you're wondering who I got this Sunday. We have the Colts, winners of the last three match-ups and are ranked #3 offensively and #4 defensively, numbers that usually favor any team. The Patriots, however, are #1 offensively and #3 defensively. Combine that with a reloaded offense and defense, and I think you have your winners there. I can't even call this one a prediction, so my guess for Sunday is New England 38, Indianapolis 31. You do NOT want to miss this game. While this win is important for both teams, I'm going to ride the bandwagon that says you'll see them play again in January.
