The Office 11.02.07: Week 9
Posted by Ken Schmidt on 11.02.2007
The game of the century is this week! No I don't mean the Falcons vs. the 49ers!
Rumor has it there is a pretty big game being played this weekend. Apparently two unbeaten teams are playing each other and they are both pretty good. Well here is the rundown. The Patriots will win this game. Perhaps people are forgetting that before last year's playoff run for the Colts, this Patriots defense was kryptonite for Peyton Manning. Well the kryptonite is back ladies and gentleman. Here is the real deal: final score Patriots 42 Colts 31; football will officially become predictable for the rest of the season. Can you imagine anything more boring? A team that wins by three touchdowns every week? I'm beginning to hate all Boston things. Except the chowder.
The Office
This is absolutely killer week as far as straight picks go, but it is nice to see some reasonable and small lines. For me, my three game parlay could be any of six or seven games because I really like a lot this week. First of all, San Diego is going to be money traveling to Minnesota. The Chargers are back for real this season and they are killing teams. They will easily win by more than a touchdown so that's a good pick. Speaking of road teams how about those Washington Redskins? Kellen Clemons starting could scare betters off but it looks like Coles will be out so that is an easy bet. Next up, Brett Farve is leading a late in his career charge at a Super Bowl berth. He is going to keep the Packers train rolling as they beat up on the Chiefs, who I believe are overrated. The next stop on my path of betting almost every game are the Bucs. They are a team that could make the playoffs but they need to right that ship quickly. Playing at home against the Cardinals is the easiest way to make that happen. I love them giving the Cards 3.5. My final pick for Sunday I am not 100 percent sure about because I don't know where this line is going to close. New England stated at –4 (which is the line the Office is using) but has moved up to almost 7 points. People are betting the Pats so that could scare other betters off. I still like them as long as it stays in single digits, once the Pats go to –10, I'd start to think about avoiding that game. So if I had to pick three games for my parlay I would say:
Chargers –6.5
TB –3.5
Packers +2.5
*****WARNING***** When every member of the Office picks the same team to win we are 0-6. This week everyone picked the Chargers. I am calling for this trend to end this week but if you look into trends like that, than maybe you should bet your money elsewhere.
Sat had a big week 8 so he jumped to the top of the standings which means his picks are in the top 3. Here is the table of the lines along with the Top 3 of the Office (Sat, Dan, and Brad), myself and the 411. Just a note to the participants of the Office reading this. How about some of us sports guys take care of these wrestling guys. There are two wrestling writers in the top 3!
Game
Sat
Brad Borchardt
Dan Owen
Ken Schmidt
The 411
Broncos (PICK) @ Lions
8-4
Panthers @ Titans (-4.5)
8-4
Chargers (-6.5) @ Vikings
12-0
Redskins (-3.5) @ Jets
11-1
49ers @ Falcons (-3)
7-5
Bengals @ Bills (-2.5)
7-5
Jaguars @ Saints (-3.5)
7-5
Packers @ Chiefs (-2.5)
9-3
Cardinals @ Bucaneers (-3.5)
11-1
Seahawks @ Browns (-1.5)
9-3
Texans @ Raiders (-3)
7-5
Patriots (-4) @ Colts
6-6 tie
Dallas (-3) @ Eagles
9-3
Ravens @ Steelers (-7.5)
7-5
Things can change very quickly in the Office Standings for those of us who haven't participated every week. For Sat, one big week sent him from the middle of the pack to the top and Charlie had the opposite happen with one bad week. Either way Sat sits on top now and I am still stuck in the same damn position with Rizz. Here are the standings followed by Sat's pick and avoidance of the week.
Sat 29-23 .557 (1 Victory)
Brad Borchardt- 58-48 .547 (2 Victories)
Dan Owen- 58-48 .547 (2 Victories)
Charlie Von Plato 40-37 .519 (1 Victory)
Debbie Schmidt- 54-52 .509
The 411- 53-53 .500
Melissa Fox- 52-54 .490 (1 Victory)
Pat Kullman- 52-54 .490
Randy Isbelle- 49-57 .462
Ken Schmidt- 49-57 .462
Chris Widner 12-14 .461
Ron Martin- 47-59 .443 (1 Victory)
Jesse James- 46-60 .433
Pick of the Week:Bills/Bengals. The line of this is the Bills by 2.5. Really, I don't see how the Bills can be favored. Sure, the Bengals have a bad defense, but I don't see the Bills defense stopping the Bengals. Take the Bengals to cover and win the game.
Avoidance of the Week:Patriots/Colts. I decided to make this the avoidance of the week because I am really at a loss at what will happen in this game. First, I think that this will be a close game, but then I flip flop and think that it will be a two touchdown win for the Patriots. So, I would avoid this game because anything can happen in this game.
Notes From Ken: I think Buffalo is just a different team at home but they have been inconsistent this year, meanwhile the Bengals are coming off back to back good weeks (killing the Jets and than hanging right with the Steelers last week). Meanwhile, I went out on a limb and picked that Pats/Colts game but unless you really need to bet it, I'd dodge it. Than again some people just have issues.
Suicide
Ken Schmidt- DEN, JAX, BAL, DAL, HOU, SD, NYG, TEN
Randy Isbelle- SEA, DEN, CAR, DAL, HOU, CLE, WAS, NYG
Debbie Schmidt- DEN, CHI, NE, DAL, IND, SD, WAS, NYG
All three of the suiciders still remain, myself biting my nails because Vince Young is not a good passer (like I said before the season started). Rizz and my Ma couldn't be happy either with the Giants just barely taking the Dolphins, but than again, a win is a win. We're all half way there! The perfect season, just like the Pats!
This Week:
This will be without a doubt, the toughest suicide week in the NFL. Other than San Diego (who I used already) there are really no stand out choices this week. Although I have my ideas on who will win I really am struggling to look at any one game and say "they will win." They closest I come to that are the Bucs hosting the Cardinals. So I am going with Tampa Bay is week. My Ma is going with the biggest favorite of the week, the Steelers, who opened as 7.5 point favorites and it has already climbed to almost 10. Meanwhile, Rizz is going out a limb this weekend and taking the Bills to beat the Bengals, that is a gamble, but if he makes it through week 9 than he will have the Colts, Pats, Packers, Chargers, and Steelers left for the final 7 weeks.
411 Fantasy
Guess who's back baby? No not Chris Jericho, no not the Bengals signs of life, no not even Donovan McNabb, I am talking about Pacman's 9s putting up the second best score, behind of course, Bayani, who is just crushing this league (though he wants to stay modest about it). Of course, the rich just get richer as Bayani just traded for Marion Barber. Since he asked me not to overhype his team I will just give the readers at home his roster and they can be the judge:
QB- Tom Brady
RB- LaDanian Tomlinson
RB- Marion Barber III
WR- Greg Jennings
WR- Braylon Edwards
WR- Patrick Crieghton
TE- Heath Miller
Flex- Selvin Young (going to be great when Henry gets suspended).
Keep in mind this is a 16 team league and he has the best player for every position (Brady, LT, Edwards) it is just unbelievable. Here are the halfway point standings for the 411 fantasy league followed by my favorite match-ups of this week. (* is a member of the Office)
Bayani 7-1
Dan Owen 7-1*
Sat 5-3*
JT 5-3
Ken Schmidt (WOOT WOOT) 5-3*
Cook 5-3
Pelletier 5-3
Borenstein 4-3-1
Lofti 4-4*
Bren Oliver 3-5
Jared Marcus 3-5
Csonka 3-5
Garmer 2-5-1
Randle 2-6
Rizz 2-6*
Jason Goodman 1-7
Great Matchups
Quarterback
I am going to dodge the two big guns going up against each other. This doesn't mean if you have Brady or Manning bench them, I just think that this game might get unpredictable (even though I already predicted a final score). How about Kitna getting back on the right path against a Broncos defense that is giving up plenty of points. Also, I love Jeff Garcia this week (I am putting a lot into the Bucs here) and finally rounding out the top three will be Carson Palmer. I think this might be the highest scoring game in Buffalo history (more on Buffalo later). For a sleeper, I'm saying Kellen Clemons. This guy is way better than Chad Pennington, and though he might be missing his number 1 receiver, he is still a solid sleeper.
Did I mention that Buffalo is going to be high scoring this week? Well it won't be through the air, well maybe a little, but I think we will see big things this week from Marshawn Lynch. With the big name running backs (LT and LJ) having tough match-ups, this is another list of middle pack players breaking out. You have to play LaMont Jordan this week too, he is going to be solid against the Texans who are turning out to be a flash in the pan, they stink now. My final big play is going to be Shaun Alexander. He has been so quiet this year, not a single great game yet, so I am saying from here on out Shaun returns to top 10 fantasy player form, starting against a pitiful Cleveland D this week. For a sleeper I would play either of the Falcons running backs, but mainly Jerious Norwood. Atlanta is going to win this week and to do that they need to kill on the ground against the 49ers solid secondary. Play the running game here.
1. Alexander (SEA)
2. Lynch (BUF)
3. Jordan (OAK) Weekly Sleeper: Jerious Norwoord or Warrick Dunn
Wide Recievers
I went against some of the big names in the other two categories but the big guns will come to play this week. Mainly Chad Johnson against the Buffalo Bills D that gives up big yards in the air. In that game, I also like Lee Evans to stay hot. He was a top 10 WR preseason and was killing his fantasy owners, but not anymore. Evans is back. My final pick would be that big gun Braylon Edwards. This kid is sick, possibly the best wide receiver in the game right now (better than Randy Moss). Fantasy-wise, he might not end with the best numbers but he is the most talented receiver in the game today. For my sleeper I am playing Ronald Curry. The guy has been quiet all year but still emerged as the number 1. He all know the Texans will give up points so I think Curry might catch one or two TDs if the Texans focus on LaMont.
It is going to be a real fun Sunday because like I said there are no obvious games this week and we have a week 9 showdown that has the feel of the Super Bowl. My suggestion for all you football fans this week, order some pizzas, buffalo wings, and two liters of soda (don't forget to tip your delivery boy well) and enjoy. I already checked my local schedule and I am not getting the greatest games (Washingon/Jets at 1, but I do get the clash of the Titans at 4). I also have work Sunday night, I won't tell everyone what this I do to make cash, since I don't make much money being a student, but I will tell you I make more money if there is a good football game on. Dallas/Philadelphia might not have the feel it did last year but it is still quite possibly the biggest rivalry in football, so I expect a great showdown. Good luck to gamblers and fantasy players out there, it's going to be a great week!
