Results from the First Round of the first ever 411 NFL Tournament:
1. New England Patriots over 32. St. Louis Rams (+66 to -12)
16. Minnesota Vikings over 17. Tennessee Titans (-12 to -39.5)
11. San Diego Chargers over 22. Cincinnati Bengals (+45.5 to -14)
6. Green Bay Packers over 27. New York Jets (+14.5 to -18)
Surprising to see that the eight teams to compete only went 2-6, and the closest margin of victory was 27.5. I guess that the news hasn't reached the teams that they are in this tournament yet, but once they do, they will pay attention to when they play and on those weeks they will play out of their minds.
Match-Up
Week
2nd Round
Quarter Finals
Semi Finals
Finals
1. New England Patriots
32. St. Louis Rams
Week
16. Minnesota Vikings
17. Houston Texans
12
Week
9. Tennessee Titans
24. Detroit Lions
Week 9
Week
14
8. Seattle Seahawks
25. Buffalo Bills
Week 9
13
Week
5. New York Giants
28. San Francisco 49ers
Week 10
Week
16
12. Philadelphia Eagles
21. Cleveland Browns
Week 10
12
Week
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20. Oakland Raiders
Week 11
Week
15
4. Dallas Cowboys
29. Denver Broncos
Week 11
13
Week
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
30. Atlanta Falcons
Week 9
Week
17
14. Carolina Panthers
19. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 9
13
Week
11. San Diego Chargers
22. Cincinnati Bengals
Week
14
6. Green Bay Packers
27. New York Jets
12
Week
7. Washington Redskins
26. New Orleans Saints
Week 11
Week
16
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
23. Chicago Bears
Week 11
13
Week
15. Baltimore Ravens
18. Arizona Cardinals
Week 10
Week
15
2. Indianapolis Colts
31. Miami Dolphins
Week 10
12
Four games down, four more this week.
9. Tennessee Titans (vs. Carolina) vs. 24. Detroit Lions (vs. Denver)
8. Seattle Seahawks (at Cleveland) vs. 25. Buffalo Bills (vs. Cincinnati)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore) vs. 30. Atlanta Falcons (vs. San Francisco)
14. Carolina Panthers (at Tennessee) vs. 19. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Green Bay)
All four top seeds advanced last week, and it looks like it could happen again this week. However, I will not be surprised if Buffalo and/or Atlanta advance. Seattle plays Cleveland who has a pretty solid offense, while Buffalo is playing well and plays the horrible Bengal team, while Atlanta has a chance because Pittsburgh has to play Baltimore.
Now it is time to move on to another new segment (If I keep adding segments, I will have no room to actually predict football games). This is where I look at what the playoff picture is right now, and where I think it will end up after Week 17.
AFC
1. New England Patriots (8-0)
2. Indianapolis Colts (7-0)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2)
4. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3)
5. Tennessee Titans (5-2)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2)
When all is said and done, it will be New England and Indianapolis getting the bye week, which is pretty much set in stone already. The Pittsburgh Steelers are playing well, while Baltimore just hasn't impressed me and the lack of offense could keep them out of the playoffs altogether while Cleveland has a chance, but hasn't beaten that one great team that will make me predict them to win their division. Kansas City is still in the AFC West lead only because they defeated the Chargers before San Diego remembered that they actually are a good football team, so obviously that is one change I am making. As for the wildcard, I really can't see three teams coming out of the AFC South, though I do believe all three teams deserve it, but who do I leave out? Right now I have to leave out the Titans based on their remaining schedule alone. Tennessee still has to travel to Denver, and Indianapolis while hosting Carolina, Jacksonville and San Diego, five very tough games in their last nine will be tough to overcome. Who do I put in their place? I have to go with Cleveland, they are a great story, and it would be wonderful to see the Dawg Pound back in the playoffs.
This is how I see the AFC ending up:
1. New England (16-0, yes I said it)
2. Indianapolis (14-2)
3. San Diego (12-4)
4. Pittsburgh (12-4)
5. Jacksonville (11-5)
6. Cleveland (10-6)
1. Dallas Cowboys(6-1)
2. Green Bay Packers (6-1)
3. Carolina Panthers (4-3)
4. Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
5. New York Giants (6-2)
6. Detroit Lions (5-2)
We have some great races in the NFC, as some of the top runners are packed together while the mediocre divisions still have some interesting factors involved. Lets start in the East where it is a three team race…well I would say two now, as Washington will have a very tough time coming back from two back. The Giants seem to always look great early, and then fall apart late. Even though I don't feel like they will collapse as much as they did last season, I think they slip up enough to drop the division to Dallas. In the North, it is a surprising race between the Packers and the Lions while the Bears are falling apart in all aspects of the game. Detroit is playing well, and will most likely make the playoffs, but they just cannot compete against the Pack. The South is wrapped up in my mind, and it isn't even by the team that owns that spot right now, the Saints are playing great, and have finally turned me back around. New Orleans will win the division and will be a test in the playoffs. The West is horrendous and tough to watch, it will not surprise me if the winner of this division is under .500. Arizona seems to be the more complete team, and therefore I will have to go to the Cardinals for my West pick.
This is how I see the NFC ending up:
1. Dallas Cowboys (13-3)
2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
3. New Orleans Saints (10-6)
4. Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
5. New York Giants (11-5)
6. Detroit Lions (10-6)
Just out of the playoffs:
7. Carolina Panthers (10-6)
8. Washington Redskins (9-7)
San Francisco 49ers (+3) at Atlanta Falcons
San Francisco 49ers (2-5 3rd NFC West): San Francisco has not won a game since Week 2, and other then a 7-9 loss in Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens, none of their losses have even been close. In fact, take out the Baltimore game, and the 49ers are losing by an average of 20 points in the other four games. The big issue with San Francisco all year has been the injuries, as offensive leaders Alex Smith and Frank Gore have both been bothered by injuries for most of the season. San Francisco ranks in the bottom part of all four major offensive categories, including being dead last in total yards and passing yards, but the defense is not helping out at all. The defense ranks in the 20s in all four of their major categories, and there just doesn't seem to be any sign of the football team that showed so much promise last season. After their meeting against a former NFC West rival this week, the 49ers look at three straight games against current division rivals, and that three game stretch will make or break their season. A win over the Falcons this week will only help bring the team confidence going into their most important part of their remaining schedule.
Atlanta Falcons (1-6 4th NFC South): Just like the 49ers, the Falcons are struggling on both sides of the football. The defense ranks in the 20s in three of the four major categories, they are ranked 19th in points allowed, while the offense also are ranked in the 20s in three of their four major categories, they are ranked 30th in points scored. Atlanta is in serious quarterback problems, as they took the starting job from Joey Harrington and gave it to Byron Leftwich only to watch him go down with a ankle injury. The Falcons are now back to Harrington, with their only back-up being Chris Redman who has not taken a snap in the NFL since 2003, after that their emergency quarterback is actually Warrick Dunn. If Harrington goes down, obviously the Falcons will have no chance in the game, which is unless Redman goes on a Tommy Maddox-like run. There are good signs for the Falcons however, as they already knew that this season was trashed after the Vick problems, but the team gets the entire season to practice against teams, as they come up with a new strategy, and they will get one of the top five draft picks in the off-season, other then that, there isn't many things to look forward to.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on September 12th, 2004 (Atlanta won 21-19)
- Atlanta has won three of the last four meetings
- San Francisco leads the all-time series 44-26-1
- San Francisco receiver Arnaz Battle has scored a touchdown in two of his last three games
- Falcons WR Roddy White has 29 catches for 501 yards (17.3 avg.) in the past six games, including two 100-yard efforts
- Atlanta is 4-2 against the spread in their last six games
Prediction: It is a battle of two struggling teams, but one is showing improvement while the other just seems lost. All you have to do to find out which team is showing more improvement is look at each teams last opponent, which happens to be New Orleans for both teams. Atlanta had the first shot right before their bye week, keeping the game close and losing 16-22, while San Francisco was never in the game and went down 10-31. With Frank Gore banged up, and Alex Smith still not the same, Joey Harrington and the Falcons should finally get their second win of the season. Also, look at when the Falcons got their first win, right after a three game losing streak, coincidence? Probably, but I still think Atlanta comes away with the victory and covers the three points.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Cincinnati Bengals (+2 ½) at Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals (2-5 4th AFC North): Take away the comeback win over the horrible New York Jets team, and Cincinnati has not won a game since Week 1. The good news for Cincinnati is that they have had an incredibly tough schedule, just look at the losses. At Cleveland, a game where Derek Anderson introduced himself to the world, at Seattle, a game that happened before Seattle forgot how to play football, vs. New England, this one is self-explanatory, at Kansas City, who always plays well at home, and finally against Pittsburgh, who always kicks them around. The defense has been their let down as once again Cincinnati proves to be a worthy opponent on the offensive side of the ball. The Bengals rank fifth in total yards and passing yards, while sitting in sixth (25.3) in total points per game. In the meantime, the defense is 31st in points allowed (30.1) and total yards allowed (385.4), and 28th in both passing yards allowed (246.4) and rushing yards allowed (139). Cincinnati is basically out of the running for a playoff spot, mainly because they are in the AFC, but I don't see them finishing over .500 with this defense, and really if I had a gun to my head, I would put the Bengals at 6-10 when all is said and done.
Buffalo Bills (3-4 2nd AFC East): Buffalo has to be the most confusing 3-4 team, statistical wise, in all of the NFL, even if two of their wins are against the New York Jets. Buffalo could actually go to .500 with a win, and compared to Buffalo Bills teams from the past, this is a huge improvement. What is even crazier is the fact that all four of their losses were to very respectable teams; Denver, Pittsburgh, New England and Dallas. While two of those losses, Denver and Dallas, could have easily been wins, especially the Dallas game which Buffalo was actually the better team. Now here is the interesting thing, if you just looked at statistics, Buffalo looks like a horrible team. Buffalo is ranked 29th or worse in points scored, total offensive yards, passing yards, defensive yards and passing yards allowed while only finding themselves in the top half in one major statistical category, points allowed. However, the Bills just find a way to win and this week they get J.P. Losman back as the starting quarterback, and if he comes back to form, the offense will pick up.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Christmas Eve 2005 (Buffalo won 37-27)
- Buffalo leads the all-time series 13-9
- The Bills have won the last eight meetings
- Bengals QB Carson Palmer needs 310 passing yards to reach 13,000 for his career
- The Bills' Roscoe Parrish leads the AFC with a punt-return average of 22.4 yards
- Buffalo is 8-1 against the spread in their last nine home games
Prediction: Buffalo has only beat Baltimore and the Jets twice, but their four losses were all to playoff-hopeful teams. Buffalo seems to win the games they are supposed to, and really I think they should win this one. If you guys read "The Office" here on 411, and if you don't you should, I am still in the survival pool and I am actually going to take the Bills to win this week, that is how confident I am about this team winning this weekend.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Denver Broncos (PICK) at Detroit Lions
Denver Broncos (3-4 3rd AFC West): Denver does not look like a playoff team, but their schedule has a major role in that. In their last five games Denver has had to play Jacksonville, Indianapolis, San Diego, Pittsburgh and Green Bay and were only able to win one of those games. Now their only two wins were too tough for comfort, with both games coming down to a last second field goal, against Buffalo and Oakland, so are the Broncos good or bad? Right now I have to go with the latter, teams are running all over the Broncos, and Jay Cutler is a good quarterback, but he just doesn't seem to have enough seasoning to be able to win the key games just yet.
Detroit Lions (5-2 2nd NFC North): The Detroit Lions have already won two more games then they did all of last season, but are the Lions for real? Let's first look at the positives, Detroit leads the league in takeaways (20) and has the third best passing game in the NFC. Detroit has defeated the defending NFC Champions twice this season, and they have a perfect 3-0 record in their division. But that is not the whole story, Detroit has yet to defeat a team with a winning record, and their two losses were embarrassing, losing by 35 points to Philadelphia and 31 points to Washington. Detroit has a tough road ahead as they now get Denver, Arizona, the NY Giants and Green Bay in their next four games, though three of those games are at home. If Detroit wants to prove that they are for real, going even 2-2 in that run will do just that, and if one of those wins is against the Green Bay Packers then they may actually win the South.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting back in 2003 (Denver won 20-16)
- Denver leads all-time series 6-3
- Detroit has won two of the last three meetings
- Lions rookie WR Calvin Johnson has 15 receptions this season, and 14 have resulted in a first down or a touchdown (93.3 pct.)
- Broncos DE Elvis Dumervil ranks third in the AFC with six sacks
- Denver is 1-8 against the spread in their last nine games
Prediction: This could be a fun game to watch, and could really go either way, but since it is in Detroit I have to go with the unthinkable and say that Detroit will win their sixth game.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Green Bay Packers (+2 ½) at Kansas City Chiefs
Green Bay Packers (6-1 1st NFC North): Just like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning last week, Brett Favre has a chance to complete the 31 team list of NFL teams he has defeated in his career. The only team standing in his way? The Kansas City Chiefs who Favre is 0-3 against. It has always been tough to win on the road at Arrowhead Stadium, but so was winning at Mile High Stadium and look what Green Bay did there, even if it did take overtime. The scary thing is that Green Bay did not have a running game in the first nine weeks, and even though it was against the worst defense against the run this season, Ryan Grant may have finally brought some balance to their offense. Brett Favre has been the MVP of the NFC in the first half and has Green Bay thinking Super Bowl, however they cannot overlook the Kansas City Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-3 1st AFC West): Kansas City is probably the most surprising 4-3 team this season. After losing the first two games the Chiefs have rallied together to win four of the last five games. Now how are they doing this? How about their defense, who is led by Jared Allen who leads the AFC with eight sacks (he has only played in five games do to a two-game suspension for a DUI to start the year). Kansas City is ranked sixth in sacks with 21, while they have forced 15 turnovers and the defense is only allowing a touchdown 26.7 percent of the time when their opponent makes it to the red zone. Larry Johnson has finally started to actually look like the top three fantasy back he was supposed to be, recording back-to-back 100-yard rushing games for the first time this year. Add in the young Dwayne Bowe, and the offense has a couple of weapons to put up enough points while the defense shuts down their opponents to only field goals.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on October 12th, 2003 (Kansas City won 40-34)
- Kansas City has won five consecutive games
- The Chiefs lead the all-time series 6-1-1
- Road teams who win on Monday night are 3-2 the following week (Tennessee had a bye)
- The Packers have won 10 of their last 11 dating to last season
- The Chiefs are 12-6 after a bye week since 1990
Prediction: Green Bay really should have lost last week, and they are in another test in this game. At first I thought that it was crazy to make the Packers the underdogs, but Kansas City has really gone under the radar, even though they are the surprise team of the year, and could really give Green Bay all they can handle. Favre hasn't been able to get it done in Arrowhead, and won't get it done this Sunday, as I go with the home team and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
San Diego Chargers (-6 ½) at Minnesota Vikings
San Diego Chargers (4-3 2nd AFC West): After losing three straight losses, the Chargers have won off three straight victories and find themselves in a tie atop the AFC West. San Diego is not only winning games, but dominating them, as they are averaging 34.7 points a game in their winning streak. The key has been the return of LaDainian Tomlinson who really struggled to start off the season, Tomlinson finds him self at only 617 rushing yards on the season, however a few more weeks like he has been going and he will be back on the 100 yards per game average. The improvement of the running game has helped the young Philip Rivers who does not have to try and carry as much of the load. In the Chargers 1-3 start, Rivers threw the ball 139 times while in their three game winning streak Rivers has only thrown 50. The Chargers have found the formula they have needed to show their dominance, and once again they are a threat in the tough AFC.
Minnesota Vikings (2-5 4th NFC North): Minnesota also has a star running back, unfortunately he has been the only person performing for the Vikings' offense all season long. Whether it is Tarvaris Jackson or Kelly Holcomb or even Brooks Bollinger, the Vikings have no answer at quarterback, and asking a rookie running back to carry the team is too much to ask.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2003 (San Diego won 42-28)
- San Diego has won two of the last three meetings
- The Chargers lead the all-time series 5-4
- Tomlinson is tied with Jim Brown for fourth on the NFL's all-time rushing touchdowns list (106). He needs four more to tie Walter Payton for third place
- When WR Troy Williamson has 75-plus receiving yards, the Vikings are 3-0
- Minnesota is 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games
Prediction: If it was just a battle of running backs, I would actually go with Minnesota only because Peterson has to go up against the weaker run defense. However, add in the fact that the Chargers actually have a solid quarterback and that changes the equation. San Diego wins this one by two scores.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3 ½) at New Orleans Saints
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2 3rd AFC South): Jacksonville might be 5-2, however they are starting to play like a team who will just miss out on another post-season. Over the last two games, the Jaguars have allowed 52 points, this coming after only allowing 58 in their first five games. Add to the fact that Jacksonville looks to have lost Marcus Stroud for four games do to violating the substance policy. Jacksonville is also still without starting quarterback David Garrard, and look to Quinn Gray to once again hold down the fort. Gray seems to know his place and only attempted 16 passes last week in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Jaguars will lean on their running game to give them a victory on Sunday.
New Orleans Saints (3-4 3rd NFC South): So is it finally time to say that the New Orleans Saints are back? The Saints have racked up three consecutive games, including the 31-10 beat down of San Francisco last week, and could reach .500 for the first time since starting the season 0-4. A win could also mean a tie atop the NFC South, which seems like the easier road to the playoffs, with the NFC East and North looking to take up two playoff spots. Drew Brees had a season best 336 yards passing last week while completing 31 of 39 and throwing for four touchdowns and no interceptions. Another performance like that and there is no doubt that New Orleans will find themselves at 4-4 when the day is complete.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on December 21, 2003 (Jacksonville won 20-19)
- Jacksonville has won the last two meetings
- The Jaguars lead the series 2-1
- Jaguars safety Reggie Nelson is tied for first in the AFC among rookies with two interceptions
- The Saints have not surrendered a sack in four straight games
- New Orleans is 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games
Prediction: These two teams seem to be going in opposite directions, though the Jaguars are only faltering due to injuries, and it should show in this game. New Orleans are back to form and will take the early lead in this one and never look back.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Washington Redskins (-3 ½) at New York Jets
Washington Redskins (4-3 3rd NFC East): Santana Moss returns to his former home, and man do I wish he was still in the green and white. Moss is struggling this season, but I would take him over 2/3 of the WRs out there. The big problem with the Redskins has been the play of Jason Campbell, as I say each and every week. And because of Campbell, I don't think the Redskins will have what it takes to make it to the playoffs. Washington looks to let out their frustrations against the Jets after getting embarrassed and killing my upset of the year pick. Washington just seems to be a 2nd or 3rd tier team, they beat the teams they are supposed to but just can't beat that top team. Washington has lost to the Giants, Green Bay and New England while their most impressive win was against Detroit. If Washington wants to make the playoffs, they need to win those big match-ups.
New York Jets (1-7 3rd AFC East): FINALLY, the Jets look to the future with Kellen Clemens. Now don't get me wrong, I have always been a fan of Chad Pennington, but all the injuries to his shoulder has really just killed his career. Pennington has always had a very accurate arm, but the more he lost strength in his shoulder, the more of a liability he became. Clemens may not be the Jets savior, especially this season, but at least the Jets are showing that they are looking to the future. Losing Jonathan Vilma for the season and the injury to Laveranues Coles solidifies that the Jets are only playing for pride, and a good draft pick.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week One of 2003 (Washington won 16-13)
- Washington has won the last three meetings
- The Redskins lead the all-time series 7-1
- Both of Washington's starting offensive guards to begin the year were former Jets
- The NY Jets are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games
- Washington is 2-5-2 against the spread in their last nine games on the road
Prediction: As much as I would like to take the Jets, they are in rebuilding mode, and with all the injuries they are just a mess. Washington will be playing with a ton of heart and pent up anger, and will unleash it on the Jets.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Carolina Panthers (+4 ½) at Tennessee Titans
Carolina Panthers (4-3 1st NFC South): Carolina goes back to David Carr after Vinnie Testaverde went down with an ankle injury. I really believe that with any of the three quarterbacks that the Panthers have turned to, the Panthers could very easily be 6-1 if they could just stay healthy, but that just isn't the case. Whoever is behind center needs to look to their playmaker more often if they want to make the playoffs, Steve Smith has been held to 50 receiving yards or fewer in four games this season, and has been a non-factor in most of their games. Carolina is a weird team, they are 0-3 at home, yet they are 4-0 on the road.
Tennessee Titans (5-2 3rd AFC South): Tennessee would be leading any of three other divisions in the NFL, but since they are in the same division as the Colts, they find themselves two games back. The Titans aren't a flashy team but they get the job done, even if the passing game does not. Tennessee has not thrown a touchdown pass since September 24th, but that doesn't seem to slow this team down. The Titans try and wear you down with the running game and win the close ones, but their red-zone efficiency is not to be desired. The Titans have only found the end-zone on 32.1 percent of their red-zone trips, 27th worst in the league, and that could cost them in crucial games down the season.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2003 (Tennessee won 37-17)
- The series is split 1-1
- Panthers tight end Jeff King had a career-best 10 catches for 82 yards in last week's loss to the Colts
- Tennessee is 14-5 against the spread in their last 19 gmes
- Carolina is 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games
- Tennessee is 6-3 against the spread in their last nine home games
Prediction: Carolina is perfect on the road, and with Vince Young still not 100%, I think they keep that perfect record. This will be a low scoring ugly game, which will probably take the fact that David Carr is the quarterback out of the equation. I really thought about giving the win to Tennessee and not have them cover, but I feel like Carolina will pull this one out late.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Arizona Cardinals (+3 ½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Arizona Cardinals (3-4 2nd NFC West): Arizona hopes that the time off has allowed injuries to heal, and struggling players to get back on track. After starting the season on fire while trading time between quarterbacks, Arizona can only sit back while all of their quarterbacks fall to injury. This week they hope that Kurt Warner is close to 100% after tearing a ligament in his left (non-throwing) elbow a few weeks ago. Arizona has to love the fact that they are in the NFC West and that a 3-4 record puts them right in the thick of things, but if they can't get healthy soon, they are going to lose sight of the Seahawks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4 2nd NFC South): Jeff Garcia has lost his invulnerability as he finally has thrown an interception this season. Actually he threw three of them last week, against the Jaguars, after not throwing one for 189 attempts. Tampa Bay also hasn't created a turnover in their last two games, both losses, tries to get things on track after losing three of their last four games. Jeff Garcia has historically done well against the Cardinals, with a record of 4-1 while throwing 10 touchdowns. With all the injuries to the running game, Tampa Bay is struggling to find a balance in the offense, and it is starting to affect them. If they can get by Arizona, the Buccaneers will head into the bye week looking forward to their game against the struggling Atlanta Falcons.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on January, 1st 2005 (Arizona won 12-7)
- The Cardinals have won seven of the last 11 meetings
- Tampa Bay leads the all-time series 8-7
- Cardinals wide-out Larry Fitzgerald leads the NFC with 642 receiving yards
- Buccaneers receiver Joey Galloway has four touchdowns this season and averages 55 yards per touchdown
- Arizona is 10-3-1 against the spread in their last 14 games
Prediction: Arizona should be back on the upswing soon, but Tampa Bay needs the win a little bit more, and they will show that this week as they defend their home field and take the victory.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Seattle Seahawks (+1 ½) at Cleveland Browns
Seattle Seahawks (4-3 1st NFC West): Seattle hopes the recent trends continue for them after their bye week. After losing their first six games after a bye week with Mike Holmgren, the Seahawks have run off two in a row and look to make it three straight on Sunday. Seattle could be the weakest 4-3 team in the league, especially on offense. The offensive line is horrible, which has affected Shaun Alexander who is just having a terrible year, Alexander only has 107 yards total on the ground in the last three games. Matt Hasselbeck is beat up from all the sacks, and has shown signs of wearing down. Seattle needs to use their bye week as a springboard to get them back on track, or they could get overtaken by the Arizona Cardinals in the division.
Cleveland Browns (4-3 3rd AFC North): Take out New England and Indianapolis and who is more exciting to watch right now then the Cleveland Browns? Derek Anderson has been the greatest find this season, already throwing for 17 touchdowns this season, while only playing in six of the Browns seven games. It helps when you have Braylon Edwards, who has nine touchdown receptions himself, add in Kellen Winslow III and Jamal Lewis and you have a formidable offense. With a win over Seattle this week, the Cleveland Browns will find them right in the middle of a crowded playoff picture in the AFC, and with games at Pittsburgh and at Baltimore in the next two weeks, this becomes a must win for Cleveland.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2003 (Seattle won 34-7)
- Seattle has won three of the last four meetings
- The Seahawks lead the all-time series 11-4
- Seattle RB Shaun Alexander needs two rushing touchdowns to reach 100 for his career
- The Seahawks are 31-6 (.838) when Alexander has 100-plus yards
- In the past six games, Browns WR Braylon Edwards has 620 receiving yards (103.3 per game) and nine touchdown catches
Prediction: Cleveland is the better team and they will show that this week. This really could be the second best game to watch on Sunday, and if New England dominates Indianapolis like I'm worried about, then this is the game to watch.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
New England Patriots (-4) at Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots (8-0 1st AFC East): I hate to say it, but New England is the best team I have ever seen, yes I am only 23, but still. After my horrific upset pick last week, I have decided never to pick against the Patriots again this season.
Indianapolis Colts (7-0 1st AFC South): I'm not going to break this game down, because I want you all to go out and read my fellow 411'ers do that for me.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in last season's AFC Championship Game (Indianapolis won 38-34)
- Indianapolis has won three consecutive games
- New England won the previous six before that
- This will be the first time in NFL history two teams with 7-0 or better records have met
- The Colts have won 12 consecutive games (including playoffs)
- The Patriots have won 11 straight regular-season games
Prediction: "The Game of The Century" I have already said that I am not going to pick against New England, but I don't even think this will be very close. Now I am not going to say that New England will win by 28, but they will jump out early and the season will end at halftime of this game as the world realizes that nobody can compete against this team.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Houston Texans (+3) at Oakland Raiders
Houston Texans (3-5 4th AFC South): If Houston wants to finally get back on the winning side of things the running game needs to finally step it up. Houston is only averaging 80.5 yards on the ground per game, 30th worst in the NFL, while the passing game, whether it is Matt Schaub or Sage Rosenfels, find themselves ranked 4th in the NFL with 263.9 yards a game. The defense is a far from great, but they are decent, however if they want to defeat Oakland, they need to stop the run, something they have struggled with a little bit this season. Houston desperately needs the bye week after losing three games in a row to three tough teams, but another loss this week will kill this football team, however a win could give them enough motivation and with the week off they could surprise the resurgent Saints team in Week 11.
Oakland Raiders (2-5 4th AFC West): Oakland's offense is the exact opposite of the Houston Texans, all on the ground. The Raiders are almost averaging more yards on the ground then they are through the air as Justin Fargas continues to prove that he could be a full time back, averaging 5.7 yards per carry this season. The bye week actually killed the Raiders who had won their last two games going in, only to lose the first three coming out and the offense is the reason. Oakland has not scored more then 14 poins in any of those three losses and in two of those games, 14 points would have won the game. With that said, there is no question that going back to Josh McCown this week is the right choice, because if you don't put points on the board then you can't win. If Oakland's defense can contain Sage, which they shouldn't have too much trouble doing, then look for Oakland to get back on the winning side of things.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in December of last season (Houston won 23-10)
- Houston has won both games the two teams have played
- The Texans are the only team that the Oakland Raiders have never defeated
- Texans tight end Owen Daniels has at least five receptions in five of his last eight games
- Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski leads the league with 17 touchbacks in 2007
- Houston is 0-5 against the spread in their last five games
Prediction: Oakland has been in three straight tough losses, all three that they could have won if they had an offense. Josh McCown will try and give them a shot in the arm and put some points in on the board, while their offense looks for Sage to make his mistakes and capitalize.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys (6-1 1st NFC East): Tony Romo can't help but smiling after signing a six-year extension this week, however something else he did this week makes me worry about his performance on Sunday. Now to say that Romo hanging out with Britney Spears will affect the way he plays, but it just makes me uneasy. In all seriousness though, now that Romo now has the big new contract, how much of his attention is really on this Sunday's game. Dallas also might be looking forward to their next week game against the New York Giants, which will play a huge role into who will end the season as the NFC East champion. Actually, Dallas is coming off their bye week in a rough way, they get all three divisional opponents back to back to back, including the first two on the road.
Philadelphia Eagles (3-4 4th NFC East): Take away a last minute, 97-yard drive by Brian Griese and the Chicago Bears and the Eagles have not lost a game since their bye week. Yes, all three of their games have been tight, but they are finding ways to win, and last week Donovan McNabb looked like the old McNabb for the first time this season. McNabb also kills Dallas, especially when playing at home where he is 6-1. The Eagles won't make the playoffs this season, not because they are a bad team, but with their bad start and their remaining schedule it is just too tough to come back from the hole they have dug themselves into. However, a win against Dallas could propel this team into a surprise winning streak that could, in fact, prove me wrong.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Christmas Day of last year (Philadelphia won 23-7)
- The Eagles have won 11 of the last 14 meetings
- Dallas leads the all-time series 53-42
- Cowboys running back Marion Barber has scored 22 touchdowns in his past 22 games
- Philadelphia is 9-4-1 against the spread in their last 14 games against Dallas
- Dallas is 4-1 against the spread in the last five games on the road
Prediction: This is my upset pick of the week, though I don't really feel like picking a home team is really an upset. Philadelphia has looked strong off the bye week, and McNabb is playing much better. While on the other side of the ball, Tony Romo is seeing dollar signs, and TO could find himself distracted by the media blitz.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Baltimore Ravens (+7 ½) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens (4-3 2nd AFC North): Baltimore is proving that defense may win championships, but if you don't have any sign of an offense then you won't make the playoffs. Baltimore is actually on a weird pattern this season; as they lose, then win two in a row, then lose, then win two in a row and then lose again. If the pattern some how keeps pace, then they should win this game, although I doubt that they will. Baltimore, like most years, relies on their defense, who ranks in the top ten in all four major defensive categories, including second in total yards allowed (268), and rushing yards allowed (71.9). Baltimore has had great success against the Steelers as of late, but with no offense, it seems like the run stops here.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2 1st AFC North): Baltimore may been known for their defense, but nobody is better on that side of the ball this season then the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh ranks in the top four in all four major categories; 1st in points allowed (13), 1st in total yards allowed (256.9), 4th against the pass (179.1), and 4th against the run (77.7). Pittsburgh also finds themselves in a bit of a pattern, as they have swapped wins and losses in the last five games, and if that streak continued then they would lose this game, seeing something fun here? With a win, Pittsburgh could have a commanding lead in the AFC North and will only be one game behind the loser of the New England/Indianapolis game for the 2nd spot to get a bye week in the playoffs.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Christmas Eve last year (Baltimore won 31-7)
- Baltimore has won five of the last seven games
- Pittsburgh leads the all-time series 13-9
- Ravens WR Derrick Mason is tied for second in the league with 56 receptions
- In sweeping the Steelers last season, Baltimore's league-best defense limited Pittsburgh to one TD, while posting 14 sacks to the Steelers' none
- Baltimore is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against the Steelers
Prediction: All of the streaks and patterns point to Baltimore, but Pittsburgh is just too dominant, add the fact that Baltimore just has no offense what so ever, and you need to start thinking about a shutout. Something just screams out to take the low in this game.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
And with all the games out of the way, here are the four teams sitting it out this week.
Let me know what you think of the column, what you want more of, and what you just want gone.
Also check out my first attempt at a movie review in the movie section, as I review Deck The Halls
