Behind the Numbers 11.09.07: Mid Season Progress Report

Posted by Chris Widner on 11.09.2007

Now that we have officially hit the mid-season point it's time for the Behind the Numbers yearly Progress Report. We're going to take a brief look at each team to see how they are doing compared to the expectations entering this season.

Now that we have officially hit the mid-season point it's time for the Behind the Numbers yearly Progress Report. We're going to take a brief look at each team to see how they are doing compared to the expectations entering this season. As with every NFL season, there have been surprises and disappointments all around. I'm sure this edition will earn me plenty of hate mail, so why delay?

Top 5 Stories of the Season
1) New England Offense - Going into the season everybody knew that Tom Brady would have one of the best seasons of his career, but I don't think anyone knew it would be this good. Brady has always done a great job of distributing the ball, so how could we expect he and Moss to have this type of season? Lost in all of the hype is the fact that the running game has suffered due to injuries, which goes to further support the thought that Brady is a beast. The offense's "worst" performance was last week against the Colts as they "only" put 24 points on the board. When 24 points is a disappointment, you know you're great.

2) Brett Favre - Weren't we all begging him to retire this time last year? The man is phenomenal! As soon as people started commenting that he is not a slinger anymore and is managing the game instead he responds by 2 absolute bombs to Greg Jennings. Off of his back foot that is! He has always been a fun player to watch, but this year is just special. We knew he was going to break a number of records this year, but nobody knew he would do it in such an amazing way. Another QB without a running game and he's plain tearing defenses apart.

3) Adrian Peterson - To steal a quote from the WWE... "Damn." He's on pace to break a number of records (set the single game mark last week) while facing 8 men in the box. Sure, it's a long season and coaches are going to learn to adjust to him, but just imagine what he's going to be like when the Vikings get a passing attack. They have some solid receivers, so it's a matter of getting a good QB. Sure it's easier said than done, but when you have a stud like this to lighten the load, there's not a huge rush there. You can pretty much pencil him in for the Pro Bowl, All-Pro, and ROY honors right now.

4) Detroit Lions - And to think many of you laughed at Jon Kitna when he predicted more than 10 wins. Sure we have another half of a season to go and he's getting sacked like crazy, but this team has a heck of a shot to make the playoffs. Calvin Johnson is going to be a great player, but the Lions are winning by playing like a team on both sides of the ball and they are quickly erasing the painful memories of the past few years for Lions fans.

5) Pittsburgh Steelers - This organization knows how to pick their coaches. Mike Tomlin has done an amazing job and the Steelers have not missed a step. They are playing just like you would expect from a Pittsburgh team and are one of the best teams in the league. One of the smartest moves was allowing Ben Roethlisberger to have input in the game plan each week. If not for the Patriots and Colts, this team would be a lock for the Super Bowl.

MVP Awards
AFC MVP

1. Tom Brady QB - Do I really need to say anything here? The Patriots are great all-around, but imagine them without Brady.
2. Bob Sanders S - We saw the difference in the Colts with and without him last season. He's one of the main reasons they won the Super Bowl. This year he has been allowed to do more, including blitzes and is just awesome.
3. Derek Anderson QB - Yes, I'm placing him in my top 3 MVP candidates. I understand that Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, and Jamal Lewis are good weapons, but Anderson is doing a phenomenal job running the offense. Too bad for him that they drafted Brady Quinn as he'll probably get the Drew Brees treatment. But there will be another team that will pick him up when that time comes.

NFC MVP

1. Brett Favre QB - Nuff said.
2. Adrian Peterson RB - MVP candidate, single game rushing mark, more records to come this season. Not bad for a rookie.
3. Tony Romo QB - We've almost forgotten the botched snap. He is worth every bit of the $60 million contract.

AFC ROY

1. Marshawn Lynch RB - He's one of the main reasons the Bills are a respectable 4-4 at this point. If it weren't for Adrian "All Day" Peterson, he'd be a much bigger story.
2. Dwayne Bowe WR - I'll probably get some flack for this one, but the kid is good and is going to be awesome. If you haven't seen him yet, make sure you do. He's fun to watch.
3. David Harris LB - He and Kellen Clemens are the only bright spots for the 1-7 Jets. Not many people have heard of him, but Harris is doing so well that there is word the Jets may trade Jonathan Vilma.

NFC ROY

1. Adrian Peterson RB - Are you surprised?
2. Patrick Willis LB - He is the only bright spot for a disappointing 49ers team. He currently leads the league in tackles.
3. Calvin Johnson WR - He hasn't played as expected, but that's because the Lions are playing like a team. He's going to be a Pro Bowler soon enough. Just not this season.


Midseason Report Card - These grades factor in the team's current play as compared to the expectations coming into the season

AFC East
Buffalo Bills (B)
MVP - Marshawn Lynch RB
Many people, myself included, expected the Bills to be a disaster this year. They won't make the playoffs, but at 4-4 they're showing a great deal of desire and are not a team to take lightly. This is a team building for the future and they have some excellent pieces in place, especially with Marshawn Lynch.

Miami Dolphins (F-)
MVP - Ronnie Brown RB (out for season)
The fact that their MVP is out for the season tells you everything you need to know about this team. Why John Beck is not starting does not make any sense. Sure Cleo Lemon has played decently, but they have no plans to make him their QB of the future. When you think about how old the defense is, it's scary to realize that this team is going to be rebuilding in the next few years. Sorry Dolphins fans, you may want to pick another team's bandwagon to jump on.

MVP - Tom Brady QB
I'm not going to spend much time here. We all know how good they are, but it's Super Bowl or bust in New England.

New York Jets (F)
MVP - Jerricho Cotchery WR
Talk about a disappointing season. I'll admit I was fooled by them last year. I thought they might actually make the playoffs. Boy was I wrong. This team is bad and if it weren't for the QB controversy, they wouldn't be worth talking about. Better luck next year.

AFC North
Baltimore Ravens (C)
MVP - Willis McGahee RB
At 4-4 this has to be considered a disappointing season for the Ravens. Steve McNair is showing his age and is in serious decline. Samari Rolle has missed 4 games which has hurt the defense. They still have a shot at the playoffs however, and Willis McGahee looks every bit the player they hoped for when they acquired him.

Cincinnati Bengals (D)
MVP - Carson Palmer QB
The offense is great, it's just too bad that the defense isn't even serviceable. If the defense was even half-way decent this team could have a shot at the playoffs. There is talk of trading Chad Johnson for some defensive talent in the offseason. Unfortunately that may be the best move for the team.

Cleveland Browns (B)
MVP - Derek Anderson QB
Going into the season Romeo Crennel's job was on the line and this was considered a team building towards the future. Turns out they're pretty good right now. That's pretty amazing considering their defense is ranked last in the league. The offense is so good that the defense just needs to make the right stops here and there and they'll win games. Braylon Edwards is the real deal and Derek Anderson is probably the surprise of the year.

Pittsburgh Steelers (A)
MVP - Ben Roethlisberger QB
While it's not surprising that they'll make the playoffs, nobody expected them to be this good. They haven't lost a step with the coaching changes and Roethlisberger is finally allowed to have some ownership of the offense. In return he's more confident and is improving if you can believe that. Having one of the fastest backs in the league in Willie Parker doesn't hurt either. It's a 3 team race in the AFC with the Patriots, Colts and these Steelers.

AFC South
Houston Texans (B)
MVP - Matt Schaub QB
Turns out that Matt Schaub is actually worth every asset the Texans used to pick him up. If Andre Johnson was healthy this team could be even better. They have the building stones for an elite defense that is only going to get better. They're a few years off, but will eventually be a team to reckon with.

Indianapolis Colts (A+)
MVP - Peyton Manning QB
Addai makes it very easy to forget about Edgerrin James and he may be the most complete back in the league. Bob Sanders has elevated his game to the next level. Manning is still Manning, so the Colts have a very good chance at repeating this year. If only those dang Patriots weren't so good....

Jacksonville Jaguars (B+)
MVP - Maurice Jones-Drew QB
While Jones-Drew gets the attention, it's the defense that keeps this team alive. David Garrard has shown why the Jags let Leftwich go, he's very solid. If this team could get a decent receiver or two they could easily become a playoff team. Truth is they might make the playoffs anyway, which says a lot considering how competitive the AFC South is.

Tennessee Titans (A)
MVP - Keith Bullock RB
Ok, I'm going to admit it. Vince Young is having a sophomore slump. I'm sure my buddy Jason can't wait to rub that one in. So how is this team 6-2? They have a crazy good defense but you'll be lucky to name more than 2 players from it. LenDale White is showing signs that he might actually be worth his high draft position. The second half of the season doesn't look too difficult, so they could be a 10 win team this year. If they can do that they'll make the playoffs.

AFC West
Denver Broncos (C-)
MVP - Brandon Marshall WR
What a disappointment.They're only 1 game out of first place, so if they turn it around they can capture the division, but I don't see it happening. Jay Cutler is seeing his share of struggles, but he is going to do just fine in Denver. Brandon Marshall has really stepped it up and is going to be a very good #2 receiver for them. Too bad Travis Henry can't keep clean as he could do very well in this offense. But what do you expect from a guy with 9 baby mamas.

Kansas City Chiefs (B)
MVP - Jared Allen DE
Surprise surprise, this team can play! The coaching staff made the right choice with Huard and this is paying off for them. He's managing the game well and Dwayne Bowe is looking like the future for the Chiefs. I had this team pegged as one of the worst teams coming into the season, but they have proven me wrong. With Larry Johnson's ankle injury they are going to be seriously tested, but they have shown that you don't want to doubt them for a second.

Oakland Raiders (C-)
MVP - Thomas Howard LB
They're doing as well as was expected. This is a team building towards the future. Unfortunately they have quite a few holes on both sides of the ball. Really not much to say here. Thomas Howard is a bright spot, however, and his versatility allows them more freedom on the defensive end.

San Diego Chargers (C-)
MVP - LaDanian Tomlinson RB
They looked horrible the first few weeks but have started to turn things around. The only problem is that Norv Turner is still their head coach. Allowing their coaching staff to be blown up was a terrible move this offseason and is the main reason for their struggles. The trade for Chris Chambers was a smart one, so as the team gets used to the new schemes they will be a force to reckon with. It just won't happen this season.

NFC East
Dallas Cowboys (A+)
MVP - Tony Romo QB
Minus the tabloid coverage of Romo, there's not much to complain about. Marion Barber has helped us forget that we traded our first round draft pick and settled on Julius Jones. We were actually predicted to use the first round pick on Steven Jackson. Anyhow, the offense is clicking and the defense is getting there. This team has an excellent shot at the Super Bowl, but if the game against New England was any indication, we're not bring the trophy home.

New York Giants (A)
MVP - Tom Coughlin & Steve Spagnuolo
Yes, I'm saying the coaching staff is the MVP. Tom Coughlin learned to ease up on his players and it has helped tremendously. Combine that with Steve Spagnuolo's new defensive schemes and it's not hard to see why this team is a serious threat in the NFC. I wonder how many Jets fans are thinking of converting. It's a 2 team race in the NFC East, but it will be a fun one to watch.

Philadelphia Eagles (D+)
MVP - Brian Westbrook RB
Poor McNabb. His offense is ranked 10th and he still gets criticized. It's time they send him somewhere else because unless he wins a Super Bowl they'll never be happy. Don't believe what you're hearing, however, he's still a very good player. Imagine this team without Westbrook, though. He doesn't get enough attention but he is clearly the MVP and is one of the most complete backs in the league.

Washington Redskins (A)
MVP - London Fletcher LB
Hey Washington, welcome back! Jason Campbell has shown that he can play well when he's not learning a new offense every year. This is the first season since his senior year in high school that he isn't having to learn a new offense. The dual running attack is great and the defense is showing up week in and week out. London Fletcher looks like a young player (in a good way) and is leading this defense to some excellent play.

NFC North
Chicago Bears (C)
MVP - Brian Urlacher LB
So they made the quarterback change a year late but at least it was done. I personally think Grossman isn't that bad but the offense is just not there. Cedric Benson was the wrong choice as he plays without any urgency. So now they have 2 issues, one at QB and the other at RB. Urlacher isn't playing at 100% health which really hurts them on the defensive end. Devon Hester has shown that he wasn't a flash in the pan, and he's a threat to score every time he touches the ball. If they could fill the holes on offense they'd be set.

Detroit Lions (A)
MVP - Jon Kitna QB
And you all laughed when Kitna promised 10 wins. He doesn't look that crazy after all. Unfortunately he is getting sacked left and right, so the question is whether or not he will last the season. The defense has stepped up and the team is 6-2. They'll make the playoffs, but will be knocked out in the first round. Remember how bad they were 2 years ago? If you're a Lions fan you don't want to.

Green Bay Packers (A+)
MVP - Brett Favre QB
Wow, they're 7-1. Brett Favre is playing as well as he ever has. Right now he's probably leading the MVP race and deservedly so. Sure they're missing a running game, but the young receivers are playing like veterans and the defense is really good. Poor Aaron Rodgers, he's got at least another year on the bench. They might actually make it to the Super Bowl this year though, so nobody is complaining. And to think we were asking for his retirement last year.

Minnesota Vikings (C+)
MVP - Adrian Peterson RB
What more can I say about Adrian Peterson? The QB position is just plain awful, yet the team can still win their share of games. Peterson is the reason why. As you hear all the time, he's dominating while facing 8 men in the box. What a bright future he has. As for this team... they're better than expected, so Vikings fans should be happy.

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons (C-)
MVP - Michael Boley LB
I'm still pulling for Harrington and the Falcons, but it's not going to happen. Petrino is learning quickly the difference between NCAA and NFL; you have to stroke some egos. His players can't stand him and Arthur Blank will have to make a choice. Does he allow Petrino to blow up the roster, or go with someone that know how to handle the NFL player?

Carolina Panthers (C)
MVP - Steve Smith WR
Anyone want to play QB for these guys? It's like a bullseye on your chest. If Delhomme were healthy this team would be in a very different spot. Jon Beason is a very good rookie and will only get better. The running game isn't really there so it's all on the defense. Maybe next year guys.

New Orleans Saints (C+)
MVP - Drew Brees QB
The first few weeks they were the biggest disappointment in the league. They're finally starting to turn it around and have a great shot at winning the division. Reggie Bush is learning to play with everyone focused on him since McAllister is out for the year. This can only be good for him and the Saints. Drew Brees continues to prove the doubters wrong.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (B)
MVP - Jeff Garcia
If it weren't for Garcia this team would be in bad shape. Somehow this guy finds a way to win, no matter where he is. Earnest Graham is proving to be a serviceable back, which is all they really need out of him. If it weren't for all the injuries this team would be better off than they are right now, which is quite the statement. I don't know how I feel about this team though. Sure, they're impressive when you consider the injuries and whatnot, but I keep feeling like they're about to rebuild and that will not be pretty.

NFC West
Arizona Cardinals (C-)
MVP - Edgerrin James RB
Leinart's injury makes things easy for the coaching staff. Kurt Warner continues to impress and Edgerrin James shows that life past 30 isn't always bad. They have a lot of work to do in Arizona, but they right pieces are in place. Anquan Boldin is one of the most underrated wideouts in the league. He's big, fast, and strong and is a natural leader. He's the type of receiver QBs dream of playing with. This team won't make the playoffs, but needs to keep building up their young players. They'll be there soon enough.

St. Louis Rams (F-)
MVP - Steven Jackson RB (injured quite a bit)
0-8. Yeah, 0-8. I feel bad for these guys, I really do. I can't remember the last time a team was decimated by injuries like the Rams have been this year. At least Brian Leonard is getting a lot of experience this year.

San Francisco 49ers (D)
MVP - Patrick Willis LB
They looked really good in the first few weeks but have fizzled horribly. Alex Smith misses Norv Turner as much as the Chargers want him gone. The lone bright spot is Patrick Willis, who leads the league in tackles. Unless they turn it around really quickly they'll be back to rebuilding mode in the off-season. If you're a 49ers fan, you probably want to kill me for saying that, but it's that bad.

Seattle Seahawks (C)
MVP - Matt Hasselbeck QB
Talk about a team that has taken a nose dive since their Super Bowl appearance. Shaun Alexander is quickly declining and is forcing Matt Hasselbeck to find other options for this team. Bobby Engram is playing really well, especially considering he's 34. This team will win their division, but that's not saying much. It'll be a quick exit from the playoffs.


I hope you enjoyed the midseason progress report. Let me know your thoughts. [e-mail]