With only a six weeks left in the season, and no chance of making my preseason goals, I have decided to lower the bar a bit. So from now on the goals for 2007 are as follows:
Straight up: 65 %
Vs. Spread: 50 %
Match-Up
Vs. Spread Pick
Straight-Up Pick
Result
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Tampa Bay 31 Atlanta 7
Incorrect
Incorrect
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland 33 Baltimore 30
CORRECT
CORRECT
NY Giants at Detroit Lions
NY Giants 16 Detroit 10
CORRECT
CORRECT
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles
Miami 7 Philadelphia 17
Push
CORRECT
Oakland Raiders at Minnesota Vikings
Oakland 22 Minnesota 29
Incorrect
Incorrect
San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars
San Diego 17 Jacksonville 24
CORRECT
CORRECT
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Kansas City 10 Indianapolis 13
Incorrect
CORRECT
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona 35 Cincinnati 27
CORRECT
CORRECT
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers
Carolina 17 Green Bay 31
CORRECT
CORRECT
New Orleans Saints at Houston Texans
New Orleans 10 Houston 23
CORRECT
CORRECT
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Pittsburgh 16 NY Jets 19
Incorrect
Incorrect
Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks
Chicago 23 Seattle 30
CORRECT
CORRECT
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers
St. Louis 13 San Francisco 9
CORRECT
CORRECT
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Washington 23 Dallas 28
Incorrect
CORRECT
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
New England 56 Buffalo 10
CORRECT
CORRECT
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Tennessee 20 Denver 34
Incorrect
Incorrect
Since we already have three games played this week, I figured I would go ahead and show you how I am doing so far this week.
Match-Up
Vs. Spread Pick
Straight-Up Pick
Result
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
Green Bay 37 Detroit 26
CORRECT
CORRECT
New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
NY Jets 3 Dallas 34
Incorrect
CORRECT
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons
Indianapolis 31 Atlanta 13
CORRECT
CORRECT
Now if Sunday is like Thursday, then we are looking at a great week, but before we get to that, let's take a look at the first ever 411 NFL Tournament, where we have finally completed the first round.
Match-Up
Week
2nd Round
Quarter Finals
Semi Finals
Finals
1. New England Patriots 32. St. Louis Rams
Week
16. Minnesota Vikings 17. Houston Texans
12
Week
9. Tennessee Titans
24. Detroit Lions
Week
14
8. Seattle Seahawks
25. Buffalo Bills
13
Week
5. New York Giants 28. San Francisco 49ers
Week
16
12. Philadelphia Eagles 21. Cleveland Browns
12
Week
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20. Oakland Raiders
Week
15
4. Dallas Cowboys
29. Denver Broncos
13
Week
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 30. Atlanta Falcons
Week
17
14. Carolina Panthers
19. Kansas City Chiefs
13
Week
11. San Diego Chargers 22. Cincinnati Bengals
Week
14
6. Green Bay Packers 27. New York Jets
12
Week
7. Washington Redskins 26. New Orleans Saints
Week
16
10. Jacksonville Jaguars 23. Chicago Bears
13
Week
15. Baltimore Ravens
18. Arizona Cardinals
Week
15
2. Indianapolis Colts
31. Miami Dolphins
12
With Dallas going down this week, that leaves us with only two of the top four teams going in. This week things start to get interesting as we get some great match-ups.
We start with the #1 Seed the New England Patriots who won their game against the St. Louis Rams in impressive fashion. This week New England has a home game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Their opponent this week are the #16 Seed Minnesota Vikings who won their game against the Houston Texans by playing less bad. This week the Vikings go on the road against the New York Giants.
Prediction: Minnesota needs a miracle to stay close in this one (Sorry Dan), New England should cruise and move on to the Elite 8.
Next up, we have the #5 Seed New York Giants as they come off a victory over the horrible San Francisco 49ers. This week they play a home game against the Minnesota Vikings.
They go up against the #12 Seed Philadelphia Eagles as they look to make it two in a row in the tournament after defeating a good Cleveland Browns team. This week they play the undefeated Patriots in New England.
Prediction: Philadelphia's match-up will be their downfall, and the New York Giants should move on to the quarterfinals to face either the Buccaneers or the Broncos.
In the lower section of the bracket, we find our best game this week, as the San Diego Chargers go up against the red hot Green Bay Packers. The #11 Seed San Diego Chargers come off their win over the dismal Cincinnati Bengals but if they want to move on, they will need a great performance. This week, San Diego stays at home to face the Baltimore Ravens.
The #6 seed are the Green Bay Packers who basically had a bye week in their first round, when they had to face my New York Jets. This week they have already played their game against the Detroit Lions and ended up with a +19.5.
Prediction: If you asked me before the week started, I would have said Green Bay had the advantage, but 19.5 is a score that can be beat, but San Diego will need to put points up on the board against a solid defense to get it done.
And our final match-up has to be pits two underdog teams. The #18 Seed Arizona Cardinals surprised the Baltimore Ravens in their first round game, and this week they are actually the favorites. Arizona gets a home game against the 49ers, and that just helps their chances to move on to the Elite 8.
Their opponent is the lowest seed to make it into the 2nd round, and really are the surprise of the tournament thus far. The #31 Seed Miami Dolphins stunned the world as they took out the Indianapolis Colts after the Colts did not show up against the Chargers. This week the Dolphins get the Steelers at Pittsburgh after they come off a surprise loss.
Prediction: Arizona should run away with this one.
With the match-ups broken down for this week, let's take a quick look at the four games that will be played next week to complete the 2nd round.
#24 Detroit Lions vs. #25 Buffalo Bills
#13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. #29 Denver Broncos
#3 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. #19 Kansas City Chiefs
#7 Washington Redskins vs. #10 Jacksonville Jaguars
Okay, now that we know the eight teams that have even more to play for, let's break down the 13 games that are left to be played in Week 12.
New Orleans Saints (+3) at Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints (4-6 3rd NFC South): The New Orleans Saints are just a complete mess and without Deuce McAllister they are nowhere near a playoff contender. Reggie Bush just is not the player that can carry an entire team on his shoulders, and it is starting to show. The Saints are the 28th best rushing team, a far cry from where most people predicted them to be, and if it wasn't for Drew Brees showing some brilliance from time to time, the Saints could possibly be down in the bottom tier of the league this season. The defense is still a mess, and New Orleans has tons of questions going into the off-season. However, New Orleans loves to play divisional opponents, and should step up big against the Carolina Panthers who have too many questions in the quarterback position to show much of a threat.
Carolina Panthers (4-6 2nd NFC South): The losing streak grew to four games last week after the Panthers lost to the red hot Green Bay Packers. Carolina still has not won a game since their bye week back in Week 7 and the schedule doesn't look very inviting for the Panthers either. In fact, the only two games that Carolina will probably be a favorite in are the next two weeks, as they host the Saints and then the 49ers. After that, they get the Jaguars, Seahawks, Cowboys and Buccaneers to end the season. It there was any doubt in your mind that the Panthers should be looking to next season, the schedule will take all doubt away. Fans should not look back at 2007 as a terrible season for the Panthers however, but yet another year that they had to sit through an injury list longer then many rosters.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 4 of this season (Carolina won 16-13)
- Carolina has won the last four meetings
- New Orleans leads the all-time series 14-11
- When DeShaun Foster rushes for 70 or more yards in a game, the Panthers are 16-1
- Carolina is 0-5 in their last five home games
- New Orleans is 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games versus Carolina
Prediction: Neither team is very good, and both are mainly because of injuries, however the Panthers are hurt in the quarterback position and that stings just a little bit more. New Orleans can't lose four in a row, then win four in a row and then lose four more in a row can they?
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Buffalo Bills (+7) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Buffalo Bills (5-5 2nd AFC East): Buffalo was just completely overwhelmed by the New England Patriots this Sunday, however, Buffalo needs to worry more about the beat down hangover. The Bills now get to go on the road for the next two weeks and it just doesn't seem to get any easier for the feel good story of the season. If Buffalo can finish the year at 8-8 then you had a very successful season.
Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3 2nd AFC South): Since their big loss to the Saints back in Week 9, the Jaguars have won two impressive games and are now the front runner for a wild card in the AFC. Jacksonville needs to worry about getting caught in a trap game against Buffalo, as they might be looking forward to their big meeting against the Colts next week.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week 12 last season (Buffalo won 27-24)
- Buffalo has won four of the last five meetings
- The Bills leads the all-time series 4-2
- Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew has 23 touchdowns in his last 24 games and is averaging 5.0 yards per carry
- Buffalo is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games
- Jacksonville is 7-2 in their last nine games
Prediction: This game comes down to whether or not Jacksonville is looking ahead or not. I feel they should be able to run the ball, and control the clock and in the end will win this game by 10 points, but I will not be surprised to see the Buffalo Bills win this game outright. If you are a gambler, stay away from this game.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Washington Redskins (5-5 4th NFC East): Even after two straight losses, and three of the last four, the Washington Redskins are still right in the middle of the wildcard race in the NFC. However, that just makes this game a must win, as they try and chase down the Detroit Lions and New York Giants. Washington seems to love to put themselves in the tight game, and this week should not be any different.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4 1st NFC South): Tampa Bay used their bye week successfully as they beat down the Atlanta Falcons with no remorse. They hope to take that momentum into this game before heading to New Orleans to attempt to lock up the NFC South. The Buccaneers are one of the most boring good teams out there, and that has them hiding under the radar, but don't get them wrong, they could surprise any solid team in the playoffs.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 11 of last season (Tampa Bay won 20-17)
- Tampa Bay has won two of the last three meetings
- The series is tied 7-7
- Tampa Bay wide receiver Joey Galloway has caught a touchdown in each of his past two games against the Redskins
- Tampa Bay is 6-1 in their last seven home games against Washington
- Washington is 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six games
Prediction: Both teams need the win, but Tampa Bay will actually make the playoffs, while the Redskins will be watching at home, and that will be proven in this game.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Seattle Seahawks (-3) at St. Louis Rams
Seattle Seahawks (6-4 1st NFC West): Seattle has finally seemed to find their footing and have won their last two games to hold onto the NFC West lead coming down the stretch. The Seahawks have a pretty easy road down the stretch with their key game coming in Week 14 when they host the Arizona Cardinals in a game that could determine the division. Matt Hasselbeck will start this week, but will have sore ribs after the beating he took in the Chicago game. If the injury affects Hasselbeck's play, Seattle could find themselves in trouble since the Seahawks are dependant on the pass this season as Shaun Alexander has had a disappointing season and Maurice Morris is just not the complete answer.
St. Louis Rams (2-8 3rd NFC West): St. Louis is finally getting healthy and it is showing in the record. The winners of two in a row now look to affect the division, even though they have no chance of winning. With this game against Seattle, and a season finale at Arizona, St. Louis will be a major player in the West.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week 7 of this season (Seattle won 33-6)
- Seattle has won the last five meetings
- The series is tied 9-9
- Linebacker Julian Peterson has 8½ sacks in his last eight games against the Rams
- Isaac Bruce is second among NFL receivers with 919 receptions and 13,817 yards
- Seattle is 4-11-1 against the spread in their last 16 games on the road
Prediction: The injury to Matt Hasselbeck could be minor and a non-factor, or it could be a big deal, it all depends on the severity. However, the resurgent Rams need to target Hasselbeck all day and see if they can make him as uncomfortable as possible in the pocket. If they can get pressure then Hasselbeck will be have it in the back in his mind that an injury is possible and passes could start going awry.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Minnesota Vikings (+7 ½) at New York Giants
Minnesota Vikings (4-6 4th NFC North): After losing Adrian Peterson in the Green Bay game two weeks ago it seemed as though Minnesota was just going to play through the rest of their season without being very competitive, not the case. Instead, Chester Taylor filled the hole nicely and helped the Vikings get a solid home win over the Oakland Raiders. Now it was just against the Raiders so you cannot read too much into it, but the fact that they did it on the ground versus a solid run defense says volumes for the heart of this team. For the rest of 2007, the Vikings will be playing the role of spoiler, and they could be just that this week against the Giants. Unfortunately, they are going to need all assets of the game playing well and they still have no answer at the quarterback position and that could cost them the game this week.
New York Giants (7-3 2nd NFC East): The Giants might not be the best in their division but they are defiantly the third best team in the conference. Unfortunately for the Giants, their three losses were all to the two teams better then them, the Cowboys and the Packers. The good news for the Giants is the fact that they don't have to play either team the rest of the regular season. To win this game, the Giants need to focus on Minnesota's running game, and force the Vikings to throw the ball, if they can do that then this game could be a route.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week 10 of 2005 (Minnesota won 24-21)
- The Giants have won three of the last four meetings
- Minnesota leads the all-time series 10-8
- Giants safety Gibril Wilson aims for his third interception in three games. He has a career-high four picks this season
- The Giants are 7-1 in their last eight games
- Minnesota 1-5 in their last six road games
Prediction: It is simple, New York holds the Vikings to under 100 yards rushing in the game…they win by at least twenty points. If they don't, they still win the game, but by a closer margin.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Oakland Raiders (+6) at Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland Raiders (2-8 4th AFC West): If it wasn't for the Miami Dolphins, the Oakland Raiders would be the worst team in the AFC.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-6 3rd AFC West): After starting 4-3 and threatening for the AFC West crown, the Chiefs have lost three in a row and just can't find an answer on offense. The loss of Larry Johnson and now Priest Holmes have not helped matters, but a win over their division rivals could turn things around for the Chiefs, even if they are a long shot to make the playoffs.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week 7 of this season (Kansas City won 12-10)
- Kansas City has won nine straight meetings
- The Chiefs lead the all-time series 52-43-2
- The Raiders rank sixth in the NFL with 128.8 rushing yards per game
- Chiefs defensive end Jared Allen is tied for the NFL lead with 9½ sacks
- Kansas City is 17-6 in their last 23 home games
Prediction: No Larry Johnson, no Priest Holmes, no problem for Kansas City who almost beat the Colts last week.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Tennessee Titans (-2 1/2) at Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans (6-4 3rd AFC South): Tennessee has lost two in a row, and now find themselves in an almost must win scenario if they want to make the playoffs. A third loss in a row would be devastating for the Titans, who started the year 6-2 and were a threat to the Colts for the division lead. Tennessee has an easier schedule the rest of the season, however, they need to have a playoff spot locked up going into Week 17 if they want to feel comfortable, as they go to Indianapolis to play the Colts.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-7 4th AFC North): Cincinnati just cannot stop anybody on defense, and it is costing them games left and right.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2005 (Cincinnati won 31-23)
- Tennessee has won seven of the last nine meetings
- The Titans lead the all-time series 38-30-1
- Titans linebacker Keith Bulluck has four interceptions and is tied for third in the AFC
- Titans kicker Rob Bironas has made 17 consecutive FGs and leads the NFL with 24 FGs and 90 total points
- Bengals cornerback Leon Hall, the team's first-round pick, leads NFL rookies with four interceptions
Prediction: The lack of a defense will cost Cincinnati once again, as Tennessee wins a game they must have.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Houston Texans (+4) at Cleveland Browns
Houston Texans (5-5 4th AFC South): The Houston Texans are getting healthy again and are once again a threat in the AFC for a possible wildcard spot. The problem for the Texans? The Texans are a game back and a rough schedule. Houston still has games against Tennessee, Tampa Bay, Denver, Indianapolis and Jacksonville.
Cleveland Browns (6-4 2nd AFC North): Cleveland had a crazy win last week against the Baltimore Ravens where the Browns only won by an inch, if that. The Browns look to use it as momentum for the rest of the season as they look to go on a run and make the postseason. Cleveland is doing it with all offense, and the lack of defense will hurt them as the season comes to a close, however Cleveland will still win their share of ballgames. With games against the Jets, Bengals and 49ers left on their schedule, the Cleveland Browns have a solid opportunity to end the season with 10 victories, and that should be enough to make the playoffs this season in the AFC.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on New Year's Eve 2006 (Houston won 14-6)
- Houston has won the last two meetings
- The series is tied at 2-2
- Texans defensive tackle Amobi Okoye leads all NFL rookies with five sacks
- Cleveland tight end Kellen Winslow leads all NFL tight ends with 767 receiving yards. He tied a career-high with 11 receptions in the Browns' last meeting with Houston
- Cleveland is 5-0 against the spread in the last five games
Prediction: Houston is getting healthier, and if they had Ahmad Green back as well, then I would give them a better shot at this one. Cleveland is rolling on an emotional high right now, and know that they are in the drivers seat to make the playoffs, and can not let up for one second.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
San Francisco 49ers (+10) at Arizona Cardinals
San Francisco 49ers (2-8 4th NFC West): San Francisco is horrible, the end.
Arizona Cardinals (5-5 2nd NFC West): Right now the Arizona Cardinals are on the outside looking in, but two straight wins have the Cardinals one game out from the division lead, and with Detroit losing, only a half game out of the wildcard. With an easier end to the season, and a team that seems to have finally gotten back into rhythm, the Arizona Cardinals have to be favorites to make the playoffs this year, but they need to win the games that they should win, and that starts with this week.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 1 of this season (San Francisco won 20-17)
- Arizona has won four of the last five meetings
- San Francisco lead the all-time series 18-14
- Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner is 7-0 against the 49ers, passing for 2,188 yards and 17 touchdowns, with a passer rating of 101.2
- San Francisco is 0-5 against the spread in their last five games
- Arizona is 12-4-1 against the spread in their last 17 games
Prediction: I don't care that Miami has not won a game yet, San Francisco is the worst team in the league. The 49ers are averaging an 11-point loss every week, and they have won two game, you do the math.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Baltimore Ravens (+9 ½) at San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens (4-6 3rd AFC North): The Ravens have now lost four straight games, although they did show improvement against the Browns last week. Baltimore can't really take much out of that game, however, as Cleveland has no defense so putting up 30 on the Browns is not much to write home about. The once playoff hopeful/bound Ravens are now in disarray and it doesn't look like it will stop anytime soon. The Ravens are at San Diego before hosting the Patriots and the Colts. If they lose three more in a row, look for Brian Billick to be on the chopping block come the off-season.
San Diego Chargers (5-5 2nd AFC West): San Diego is just trying to lose this division. After an ugly win against the Colts, they couldn't get the win in a close one in Jacksonville and are now tied for the division lead with the Denver Broncos. All signs point to a huge game in Week 16 between the two teams, but San Diego needs to win this game first. Philip Rivers needs a solid start this week to quiet the critics for a little while at least, and if LaDainian Tomlinson can break out, I believe Rivers will have a solid game as well.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 4 of last season (Baltimore won 16-13)
- Baltimore has won the last three meetings
- The Ravens lead the all-time series 3-2
- Chargers' cornerback Antonio Cromartie leads the NFL with six interceptions
- Ravens running back Willis McGahee aims for his sixth consecutive game with a rushing touchdown
- Baltimore is 1-10 against the spread in their last 11 games
Prediction: If San Diego was playing anybody else, I might not take them, but Baltimore has underachieved all season, and they will this week as well.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Denver Broncos (-1) at Chicago Bears
Denver Broncos (5-5 1st AFC West): Denver might be the only team that wants to win the AFC West this season. Winners of two in a row, the Broncos are now in the driver's seat, and with a pretty easy schedule, they look to run away with the division and continue to play in January. If there is one big weakness on the Denver team, it is their rushing defense, allowing 149.2 yards a game on the ground, 29th in the league. Denver also allows 25.8 points a game, 29th in the league as well. If Denver can control the ball, and keep their defense off the field, then they could contend against most teams, especially the remaining teams on their schedule.
Chicago Bears (4-6 3rd NFC North): I can't believe I'm going to say this, but the return of Rex Grossman might have rejuvenated the Bears' offense. Unfortunately, it is not enough for Chicago this season, and with the defense not playing up to their potential, and no running game in sight, Chicago will be sitting at home in January wondering what went wrong.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2003 (Chicago won 19-10)
- Denver has won two of the last three meetings
- The series is tied 6-6
- Grossman has never lost in his career when he posts a quarterback rating of 100 or more, going 7-0 in such contests
- Chicago is 4-12 against the spread in their last 16 games
- Denver is 4-14 against the spread in their last 18 games
Prediction: Denver gives up a ton of yards on the ground, but Chicago doesn't know what a running game is. With their big weakness neutralized, Denver should run away with the game, and keep their division lead.
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Philadelphia Eagles (+20) at New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles (5-5 3rd NFC East): No McNabb…no chance for the Eagles. Well, even with McNabb the Eagles don't stand a chance, but now it is going to be ugly.
New England Patriots (10-0 1st AFC East): A win gives the Patriots the AFC East, like that was ever in doubt. The only question for the rest of the season for the Patriots is whether or not they sit people in the final few weeks or not.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Super Bowl XXXIX (New England won 24-21)
- Philadelphia has won five of the last six regular season meetings
- The Eagles lead the all-time series 6-3
- Eagles defensive end Trent Cole is tied for the NFC lead with nine sacks and has recorded 7½ in his last eight games
- New England is 9-1 against the spread in their last 10 games
- Philadelphia is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games versus New England
Prediction: Do I even need to say it?
Vs. Spread
Straight Up
Miami Dolphins (+15) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami Dolphins (0-10 4th AFC East): Let's just go ahead and give Miami another loss, and move on to their game with the Jets, okay?
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3 1st AFC North): The Pittsburgh Steelers, and the football world, were stunned by the New York Jets…MY New York Jets, last week. This week, the Steelers are pissed off, and that just means that the poor Miami Dolphins are going to get a butt whooping like they haven't seen since the Patriots came to town. Pittsburgh laid back for one week, and they won't do it again.
The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on September 7, 2006 (Pittsburgh won 28-17)
- Pittsburgh has won five of the last seven meetings
- The series is tied 9-9
- Dolphins running back Jesse Chatman has averaged more than 90 rushing yards in three starts this season
- The Steelers are 5-0 at home this season
- Miami is 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against Pittsburgh
Prediction: Do I even need to say it? If you don't like blowouts, don't watch either of the primetime games.
