The 5 Step Drop 11.29.07: Regular Season Week 13
Posted by Javier Zuniga on 11.29.2007
The uncomfortable truths behind the Sean Taylor tragedy, the Cowboys and the Packers renew an ancient rivalry on a network no one watches, the Jags try to take the next big step against the Colts, and two surprising play-off contenders should light up the scoreboard. And don't worry, everything's cool...the Lions suck. Again.
Namaste and Welcome to this week's edition of The 5 Step Drop.
Before we begin a preview of this week's prime match-ups – including the game of the year in the NFC – I think it's necessary to talk about the story of the week in the NFL: the murder of Washington Redskins Pro-Bowl S Sean Taylor. For those who have not heard the story, you can read some of the details here. But the basics go as follows:
Sean Taylor died Nov. 27, a day after the player was shot at home by what police say was an intruder. Taylor and his girlfriend were awakened by loud noises. Someone then broke through the bedroom door and fired two shots, one missing and one hitting Taylor. The bullet damaged the femoral artery in Taylor's leg, causing massive blood loss and Taylor never recovered.
Thankfully, neither Taylor's daughter, Jackie, nor Taylor's girlfriend were injured in the attack
This is, in many ways, an incredibly sad story and my heart goes out to Taylor and his family. Especially the 18-month old daughter he leaves behind. But I am literally STUNNED by the members of the national media that are treating this story like a national tragedy. And even worse, I am embarrassed by the writers who are treating this story with kid gloves as if Sean Taylor was some kind of saint who had been gunned down while delivering food to the homeless. There are writers and media members everywhere from ESPN to Fox Sports to local papers in the D.C. area who spending so much time trying to be "respectful" and telling us what "a great guy" Sean Taylor was that they are completely ignoring the actual facts surrounding the situation.
Now, let's be fair, absolutely everyone – from team executives and coaches to former University of Miami teammates Jeremy Shockey and Clinton Portis to local columnists – has said that Sean Taylor had changed. He had a young daughter that had transformed his life because he wanted to be there to watch her grow up. He regularly attended team chapel services. He had gone from being a troublemaker in the locker room who often feuded with Coach Joe Gibbs to being a real leader on the Skins who was seen as a mentor to rookie S LaRon Landry and was having a Pro Bowl caliber season despite playing out of position for most of the year; he had become one of those rare selfless players who will give up his own stats to do what is best for his team.
So yes, in the last eighteen months or so it looked as though Sean Taylor had finally gotten his act together. But does that mean it is right to ignore everything that happened before? Let's take a look:
--Besides his numerous run-ins with the coaching staff, he had a variety of other on-field issues. Taylor was fined at least seven times for late hits, uniform violations, and other infractions. Most notoriously, he was fined $17 thousand for spitting on an opposing player during a 2006 play-off game.
--In 2004 he was arrested for DUI. He was later acquitted of all charges.
--Just last year Taylor pleaded no-contest to assault and battery charges stemming from an incident where he was arrested by Miami-Dade county police for threatening someone with a fire-arm while trying to retrieve a pair of allegedly stolen ATVs. Taylor left the scene, but returned shortly and allegedly punched someone in the face (He really wanted his ATVs back). Now, this might not actually sound that bad (especially if you grew up in the kind of neighborhood I grew up in. Seriously, my family has had baptisms broken up by the cops) except that this skirmish resulted in an impressive bit of retaliation: an angry crew pulled up on Taylor and his posse a few hours after the argument and pumped 15 rounds into Sean's SUV as a way of sending a message.
Sean Taylor was working changing his ways. But what about the people around him?
Now…again….I want to be fair here: it was shortly after avoiding jail-time for this event that Taylor started to turn things around for himself. But just because his attitude changed, does that mean that his past was never going to rear its ugly head? That the things he did never happened and the people he hung out with were just going to fade away? Michael Wilbon, a well known columnist for The Washington Post, says it best:
You see, just because Taylor was changing his life, don't assume the people who pumped 15 bullets into his SUV a couple of years ago were in the process of changing theirs. Maybe it was them, maybe not. Maybe it was somebody else who had a beef with Taylor a year earlier, maybe not. Maybe it was retribution or envy or some volatile combination.
There are sources in the DC area that have told reporters that people close to Sean – his closest friends, even – had repeatedly warned him to get out of Miami. They told him to go north, to live as far away as he could from the troubled neighborhoods of South Florida because he was still an easy target. Just ten days ago, someone had broken into Taylor's home, rifled through his drawers and (even though NOTHING was stolen) left a kitchen knife sitting on his bed. There are even conflicting reports that say his security system may or may not have been activated.
I mean..c'mon…the guy used to run with a crew of guys whose idea of "conflict resolution" looked like something out of Grand Theft Auto. He was sleeping with a MACHETE under his bed. Why are members of the media trying to act as if this is some random break-in? Why are people getting offended by the notion that maybe – just maybe – Sean Taylor's past caught up to him? I personally believe someone broke in, meant to shoot Taylor in the leg to shake him up (normally when you read about execution style hits, the shooter aims higher up), but that things went tragically wrong because of the loss of blood.
This really is a sad story. Not because Sean was a great football player, but because he was working SO hard to be a better person. People might've known who Sean Taylor was. No one – not even his family – will ever get to know the man Sean Tayloer wanted to be.
By pretending as though Sean Taylor's past never happened, however, the media and fans who want to bury their head in the sand are really doing a disservice to the community at large. Because, even though it ended tragically, there is a lesson to be learned in the Sean Taylor Story: We all make choices as we grow up. Some of them involve the friends we keep and the people we hang out. Other choices might involve the substances we use, the chances we take, the respect we show others and most importantly the respect we show for ourselves. Choices. And you better try and make good decisions, because even though you might grow up and learn from your mistakes and become a better person, those choices will catch up to you.
It might not be the nicest thing to say, but if Sean Taylor had made better decisions when he was a younger man, he would more than likely still be with us now. Hopefully, there are some young men out there right now making choices that learn that lesson.
Let's go to the games:
Thursday, November 29, Green Bay Packers (10-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (10-1): Ahhhhhh…the Cowboys vs. the Packers. In many ways this is the rivalry that really established the NFL in the national conscience.
1967. The Ice Bowl. When men were men and NFL Coaches wore funny little hats.
In 1966, the Packers beat the Cowboys for the NFL Championship 34-27 by preventing Dallas from scoring a touchdown on four consecutive plays starting from the Packers 2-yard line on the game's final drive. The Packers would go on to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the first ever Super Bowl. But back then the NFL title was considered THE championship.
The following year, the Packers beat the Cowboys for the NFL Championship on a dramatic quarterback sneak by Bart Starr in the final seconds. The game, played at Lambeau Field in hostile sub-freezing conditions, would eventually become known universally as The Ice Bowl. Many old dudes consider it one of the greatest games in NFL history because of the insane conditions, the championship that was at stake, the rivalry between the two teams, the dramatic ending, and the legacy involved: this was Lombardi's last NFL Title, there were 12 HOFers on the field, the Pack would go on to roll over the Raiders in the second Super Bowl. It's the reason why Chris Berman was able to cash a paycheck for nearly decade mainly because he sounded good saying FROZEN TUNDRA.
Fast forward to this week: Both teams are 10-1. Both teams are on major winning streaks. Both teams have fairly easy remaining schedules so the winner will almost definitely have home-field advantage throughout the NFC Play-offs (That is vital: only the Eagles in ‘02 and ‘03 have failed to go to the Super Bowl with home-field advantage in recent years). Both teams look like they have the kind of offense that could make it a contest should they make it to the Super Bowl to face off against the Patriots. And both teams are chock full of the kind of big name star players that would make this a guaranteed ratings grabber if not for the fact that it was being shown for the dozens – AND DOZENS! – of fans who have the NFL Network.
So, with all of these strengths, why would I be worried if I were the Cowboys? Well, they still can't defend the pass. I don't care what the stats say. Long plays kill them on a weekly basis. Sure they looked good against the Jets but that's because it was …y'know…the Jets. Two weeks ago against the Redskins, Jason Campbell was tearing them to pieces and had the Skins driving for a go-ahead TD late in the 4th before throwing an interception to CB Terence Newman.
The Cowboys have also suddenly become very predictable on offense. If you take away the opening drive and a long TD pass to TE Jason Witten on a blown coverage, the Cowboys did very little against the Jets in the first half. New York played heavy pass coverage on 1st and 2nd downs. The Cowboys never took advantage of obvious opportunities to rush the ball. Dallas ended up with a ton of third-and-longs. And Tony Romo – who is still in only his first full season as a starter – was completely baffled by New York's "six guys wander around until the ball is snapped" chicanery.
Even without the trickeration, shouldn't all of that have the Packers absolutely licking their chops? The Cowboys seem to playing right in to Green Bay's strengths.
So, then, why would I be worried if I were the Packers? Well, for one, if the Cowboys DO decide to run the ball the have a pair of very talented backs and the Packers are DEAD LAST against the rush.
Secondly, their best CB Charles Woodson is questionable for the game. Can you imagine what ROMOWENS could do if Al Harris is the guy standing across the line of scrimmage?
And lastly, Dallas absolutely OWNS Brett Favre. He has a lifetime record of 2-8 against the Cowboys. He is specifically 0-8 in God's Stadium. And he is 0-3 in the play-offs when it really counts. Seriously, I remember vividly watching guys like Deion Sanders and Michael Irvin laughing it up on the sideline while the Cowboys were routing Green Bay in the 1995 NFC Title game.
So how does this turn out? All parties are going to be highly motivated. I've already talked about Favre's play-off failures in Dallas in the past. He definitely does not want to return for an NFC Title game this year. And there's no way the Cowboys want to go to Lambeau Field in January.
These are honestly two very evenly-matched and talented teams. In cases like that, it's often the team that avoids making mental mistakes that ends up winning. And the fact is, that hasn't been the Cowboys this year. They blow coverages. They commit stupid penalties. Their special teams play is inconsistent. And when it's time to make those crucial decisions which can win or lose a game, head coach Wade Phillips often looks like he wandered onto the field from a retirement home.
Sunday, December 2, Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3) @ Indianapolis Colts (9-2): Despite the fact they have the second best record in the AFC, the Colts look increasingly vulnerable. They pounded an overmatched Falcons team on Thanksgiving, but that was coming off an ugly win over the Chiefs and back-to-back last second losses to the Pats and Chargers. They are also physically beat up: the O-line might be missing both starting tackles and the last time WR Marvin Harrison played, Britney Spears still had custody of her kids.
The Jags, meanwhile, are on a major roll. They aren't just beating teams. They are physically imposing their will on them. They bitch-slapped the Titans. They tea-bagged the Chargers. And then they gave Buffalo a Dirty Sanchez and kicked them out in the morning. Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if Peyton Manning ended up bent over with a rubber ball in his mouth like Marcellus Wallace in ‘Pulp Fiction.'
The Jags punish you with their running game. They punish you on defense. They make very few mistakes. The special teams is incredibly solid David Garrard is the only starting QB in the NFL who has yet to throw an interception And there are quite a few of the Jags that feel the only reason they didn't beat the Colts in Jacksonville a few weeks ago was because Garrard went out with an injury just 17 plays into the game.
That's not to say the Colts are a ‘bad.' Both teams are among the league leaders in Turnover Margin. Both teams are extremely efficient and among the best in the NFL at third down conversion rate. Both teams are among the least penalized in the NFL. But Indianapolis just doesn't have that explosiveness they've had in years past that gave them an advantage over the more pugnacious Jacksonville teams.
Even with the fast track of the RCA Dome, I can't see the Colts being able to do enough to beat the Jags here. Jacksonville is looking at this as their litmus test: they can NOT be considered a real contender until they consistently beat Indianapolis and finally win this division. The Jags will take care of the Colts this week. Whether or not they win the division will probably depend on their game at Pittsburgh in three weeks. In either case, this Jacksonville team is officially a ‘Dark Horse Contender' from here on out.
If it makes you Indy fans feel better, go ahead and re-live last year's Super Bowl win, on me:
Sunday, December 2, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-4) @ New Orleans Saints (5-6): Wait a second? The Bucs might win a division title even though they don't do anything particularly well, they have no superstars, they have an incredibly weak schedule, and they've been beaten most of the time they played an opponent with a winning record. Who do they think they are? THE Ohio State?
That being said, this really is an opportunity for Tampa Bay to pretty much lock up the NFC South and a first round home game in the play-offs. A win here and they would have at least a two game lead and hold the tie-breaker over everyone in the division with four games to play.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, a win here for the Saints would mean another winning streak in their roller coaster of a season and it would keep alive the play-off hopes of last season's media darlings. Drew Brees has been much more effective at home. So has RB Reggie Bush, although he may still be bothered by a bruised shin.
I'm taking the Saints here. But mainly because I just don't see anything about the Bucs to be impressed about.
Sunday, December 2, Cleveland Browns (7-4) @ Arizona Cardinals (5-6): Wait a second? Another double-take in this game….you're telling me that the Cleveland Browns are playing the Arizona Cardinals in December and BOTH teams are legitimate play-off contenders??? I haven't been this shocked since I found out Posh Spice had fake boobs.
But seriously, this might be the hardest game left on the Brown's schedule. They could end up with 12 wins and easily get a wild-card spot; if not steal the division out-right (Yeah… sorry, Pittsburgh fans. You still have games left against Jacksonville AND the Patriots). They may not be able to stop anyone, but they have legitimately become one of the NFL's most explosive offenses.
The Cards are in a similar situation: favorable schedule, a division that is up for grabs. But they are coming off an incredibly disappointing OT loss to the Niners. And the defense, which has played fairly solidly for most of the year, has given up a ton of points in recent weeks.
Kurt Warner makes Arizona dangerous on offense and WR Larry Fitzgerald has been on fire lately. This is going to be a shoot-out and one of the most surprisingly fun games of the week. I just think that the Cards will do enough to slow down the Browns while Cleveland will just have no answer for the Cards. Arizona will get the upset. And the winner of their game next week against the Seahawks will win the NFC West.
Sunday, December 2, Detroit Lions (6-5) @ Minnesota Vikings (5-6): Poor Detroit fans. First off, you live in Detroit. Secondly, you are watching the wheels come off the Lions surprise season. They were upset by the Cards, lost a must-win to the Giants, and then got crushed by the Pack on Than.ksgiving.
Hello Three-Game Losing Streak.
Good-bye play-offs.
Even if they get past the Vikings here, they have three very tough games left against Dallas, San Diego, and Green Bay. The only reason they aren't worse against the rush is because teams are piling on against their pass defense. And Jon Kitna is now turning the ball over at his old Kitna-esque rate.
Carnac the Maginificent: TEN TIMES! (Ten Times?) How many times should Jon Kitna kick his own ass for saying the Lions will make the play-offs?
Meanwhile, Minnesota is back in the play-off discussion after winning three of their past four. In upsetting the Giants last week, they showed off one of the most dominant front sevens in the league. And their running game has been impressive even with Chester Taylor getting most of the carries.
Of course, that might not be a problem since it looks like Adrian Peterson will be back for this game.
So that's why the Vikings will win, the Lions will lose, and their fans can start wondering which College WR they will draft in next year's draft. The world will return to its natural order.
Speaking of the natural order of things: after another 4-1 week, my record is standing at a robust 38-17. While I hesitate to call this GENIUS, I find it difficult to find any other way to describe it. If you have some adjectives you can think of, be sure to drop me a line.
