The 5 Step Drop 12.06.07: Regular Season Week 14

Posted by Javier Zuniga on 12.06.2007

It's Week 14! With only a month to go in the regular season, we take a closer look at who are The Contenders and who are The Pretenders on the road to the NFL PLAY-OFFS! Plus ..can the Steelers de-rail the Pats? Can the Titans keep their hopes alive against the Chargers? And will Tampa Bay beat ANYBODY??? Like Don Cheadle said..THIS is where moments are made.

Happy Hanukkah to all my Jewish brothers out there and welcome to this week's edition of The 5 Step Drop

I totally missed on the two biggest games last week, but still had an opportunity for a winning week right up until Sean Payton and the Saints decided to run a triple-reverse-inside-out-huracanrana with a three point lead in the 4th quarter against the Bucs. So I finished 2-3 for the week and I'm now 40-20 on the year. That being said, THIS is the time of the year that really counts. It's the drive for the play-offs; the stretch run. December in the NFL is the time of the year that separates the Contenders from the Pretenders.

In past seasons, it seemed like all 32 teams were fighting for the 12 play-off positions with a month to go. This season, there are two definite POWER teams in each conference, most of the divisions have been locked up and there are really a limited amount of teams vying for those final few spots. That being said, the really interesting thing is that, after a season where the AFC looked like it was head-and-shoulders above the NFC in terms of quality, several NFC teams have come on as of late. So while most of the talking heads will tell you that they already know the conference championships will be the Colts-Pats and Cowboys-Packers, there are suddenly several "dark horse" teams set to break up those glamour match-ups.

With a month to go, let's take a look at just who are the Contenders (and the Pretenders) in each conference:


The PLAYOFFS. Just saying it puts hair on your testicles.

NFC

Seattle Seahawks : I feel like I've been saying this all season about Seattle: they have a very good head coach, a very good QB, a ridiculous home-field advantage, and an aggressive defense that has produced the fifth most takeaways in the NFL. If they beat Arizona this week, they clinch the division. The remainder of their schedule is fairly easy, and they own the tie-breaker with Tampa Bay because of a Week 1 victory so they should be the #3 seed in the NFC and host the final Wild Card. In that scenario, I would pick them over just about any team they might play.

The real test comes the next week. Once they go on the road (be it at Lambeau Field or at God's Stadium) they would need to control the time-of-possession to have any chance at winning a game. That would mean an awesome, workhorse-like effort from Shaun Alexander. And unfortunately, Shaun-Shaun has been about as macho and tough as Zack Efron this season, and Seattle just doesn't have the firepower to beat either of the Cowboys or Packers when their "star" RB is a big sissy.

They're a lock for the play-offs, they will kill anyone who has to go to Qwest Field, but won't accomplish much else beyond that.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers : I still have no idea how they are doing this. They have no offensive stars. Their O-line has been ravaged by injuries. They are down to their third string RB. The Bucs do have a very solid defense and are one of the NFL's best in terms of forcing turnovers. But their success probably has to do with the fact that they have had an unbelievably easy schedule and the rest of the division is in the tank.

The Bucs could end up the season 1-5 against teams with winning records and still win the NFC South by three games. Tampa Bay is making the play-offs. But unless they get a very advantageous match-up, they won't beat anyone, even at home.



If you're standing there..partying..and putting the moves on a smoking hot blonde that is definitely feelin' you…and you STILL look like a drok..You're a dork.

New York Giants: After beating Chicago, the Gi'nts are at 8-4 and look like a lock for a Wild Card even with all the drama surrounding the erratic play of their doofy QB. Beating the Bears, plus the fact Washington and New Orleans also lost must-win games, means that New York could finish 1-3 down the stretch and still squeak in. Once there however, this team looks like it will be first round fodder for one of the division winners. They are literally the team that EVERYONE wants to face.

Minnesota Vikings : After falling on Nov. 11th to the Packers 34-0, it looked like Minny's season was D-U-N, DONE. But they have now won three straight, they are getting much improved play from QB Tavaris Jackson, and there are several top NFC teams that are probably scared to death at the prospect of having to deal with the Vikings real strengths: the best offensive line in football, the scariest RB combination in the universe, and an unbelievable front-seven on defense. Because of their remaining schedule – two crucial home-games against Chicago and Washington sandwiched by winnable road games against at San Fran and Denver – the Vikings truly control their own destiny.

My opinion: they win out, go to Tampa Bay and dominate the Bucs, and then put a nasty scare into the Cowboys in the NFC semis. The Vikings might be THE team to watch next year.

Arizona Cardinals: If they beat Seattle on Sunday, this team becomes very interesting, because the final three games are there for the taking. Unfortunately, I don't think that happens and the Cards have been so unpredictable on offense that I could still see them finishing the year 8-8. For the seven millionth season in a row, the season is close…but no cigar.



ANOTHER humiliating end to the season? At least Lions fans are prepared.

Detroit Lions : Lord…if this team weren't at .500 I wouldn't even bother to list them as "a Contender." They'd dropped four straight, they can't stop anyone, their once potent offense is struggling, and now they've probably lost their #1 WR Roy Williams for the year. And oh yeah…three of their four final games are against division leaders. The Lions will be lucky to finish 7-9.

The Pretenders: Chicago, Tampa Bay, Washington, New Orleans, Carolina, Philadelphia – all of these teams are at 5-7 and all of them have recently lost crucial games that could've put them in the play-off picture. The Bears and Saints are probably the only teams in the bunch that could make a play-off push; the Bears because they get to face off against the other teams in NFC contention and the Saint because three of their final games are against teams with losing records. But none of these teams has been consistent enough to expect any kind of hot streak and their fans should go ahead and start talking about next year's prospects.

AFC

Pittsburgh Steelers: Part of me wants to include this team amongst the Big 2 in the AFC – New England and Indianapolis: they have a great defense, a dominant run-game, Big Ben is having a career year and at 9-3 they are still pushing Indy for that first round bye in the AFC play-offs. That all sounds great.

Then I remember the Steelers have scuffled lately, they were on the ropes against the Browns before being beaten by the J-E-T-S, and if the referees hadn't completely blown the "force-out" call at the end of the Cleveland-Arizona game I'd probably be picking the Browns to overtake Pittsburgh for the division because Pittsburgh has an absolutely brutal schedule remaining: at NE, home against the Jags, and then road games against a frisky St. Louis team and a Baltimore team that loves playing them, regardless of team records.

So as it is, Pittsburgh will probably finish 2-2 and are realistically entrenched into the #3 spot in the AFC. They will be huge favorites in the opening round How they match up in the Divisional Round at Indy will depend on the health of the team.

San Diego Chargers: Wow…has Norv Turner been getting hammered unfairly by the media for his teams' play? No. San Diego just managed to pull things together because the roster is SO talented and the division is SO weak that even Norv can't screw it up completely. That being said, if the Chargers had consistently played the way they've played the last few weeks – especially on defense – they would be pushing Indy for the second best record in the AFC. As it is, I won't even be picking them to beat a desperate Titans team this week. But they should still roll the last three weeks of the season and they will still win the AFC Weak by at least two games. After that, who knows?

Jacksonville Jaguars: Even after having their division title hopes crushed last week, the Jags should still feel very good about themselves. They have a great young QB, a physically imposing defense, and the best RB combination south of Minneapolis. Their remaining schedule is very favorable and because of the way the top seeds are essentially locked in, they will likely be opening the play-offs against a Chargers team they dominated earlier in the year. After that…on the road against New England. I don't like their chances in that game, but I KNOW that The Hoody wouldn't be looking forward to that game.



Cheer up, Cleveland Fan. You ARE making the Play-offs this year.

Cleveland Browns: As I've already said, if the Browns didn't get hosed against Arizona, I'd be picking them to shock the world and steal the AFC North. As it is, they have a great chance to run the table – their remaining opponents are a combined 16-32 – and might steal the top Wild Card seed. My guess is that they finish the year with 10 wins, and then end the year by playing a thriller in Pittsburgh. Cleveland fans should feel great because for the first time in years, the Browns look like they have the components in place to be a scary team in the AFC for years to come.

Tennessee Titans : They are 7-5 after ending their three-game losing streak. If they beat the Chargers on Sunday, their play-off hopes will be very much alive. But they would still have tough games left at Kansas City and at Indianapolis. And their competition will be facing Division 1-AA teams. Realistically, they have to run the table to have a shot at a play-off spot. Or hope that the Browns offense comes apart at the seams and VY is able to string together a month's worth of prime-time performances. I don't think either happens. Better luck next year, Tennessee.

The Pretenders: Buffalo, Houston, Denver – even at .500, Buffalo's chances are "slim" and "none" and slim just rode out of town on Marshawn Lynch's last MRI. For all the talk about the AFC's power, the conference is actually surprisingly top-heavy.

Once you get past Cleveland, I don't think much of any of the teams and the AFC play-offs are fairly easy to predict as far as who goes where. But I must admit, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Jacksonville are far more interesting as ‘dark horse' contenders than anything the NFC has to offer. Now that we've talked about the play-off hopefuls, let's take a look at the games that will help them get there:



We do not train to be merciful here. Mercy is for the weak. Here, in the streets, in competition: A man confronts you, he is the enemy. An enemy deserves no mercy.


Sunday, December 9, Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) @ New England Patriots (12-0): I feel like I've been saying this for weeks, too: you beat the Patriots by pressuring Brady and taking away Randy Moss on defense and then running the ball and controlling the clock on offense. You can't lose the turnover battle. You can't make any mental mistakes. And finally you also have to find a way to create a situation where the game isn't close enough for Brady to beat you late.

All three times where New England was genuinely in danger of losing a game, teams have done everything except the last one.

Pittsburgh happens to do those things better than Philly, Baltimore, or Indianapolis and all those teams gotthisclose to upsetting the Pats.

So why not take Pittsburgh here? Well, for one, the Pats have owned Pittsburgh lately, winning five of the last six meetings. But mostly, I just can't believe The Hoody will allow his team to lose. The Patriots will be more prepared for this game than Pittsburgh. Mike Tomlin seems like a good guy but there are possibilities running through The Hoody's mind that Tomlin hasn't even begun to conceive. He will do anything – ANYTHING – to get his team ready this week and as hard as Pittsburgh comes at New England that's how hard that New England will be ready to come back. And then add 10% for what Brady brings.

Honestly, if The Hoody has to drink baby's blood and sacrifice goats to the Lord Hoary Hosts of the Underworld, he will.

If it's a close game, and it probably will be, I would bank on the combination of Hoody/Tom over Tomlin/Ben. That's what it boils down to. Pats win.

Sunday, December 9, San Diego Chargers (7-5) @ Tennessee Titans (7-5) : The Titans will be playing out of their heads in this one. And San Diego, while putting together their most complete performances of the year in back-to-back wins over Baltimore and KC, probably won't match the Titan's intensity.

I love Tennessee's run defense, especially with DT Albert Haynesworth back. The Titans were first in the NFL against the rush with him through eight weeks, and then dropped to 5th and lost three games without him. If the Titans can slow down LTD, then the game will turn into the type of brawl that San Diego had with Jacksonville where the San Diego offense relied on Phillip Rivers to make plays. And if that's the case…and I think it will be…I take the Titans.

Sunday, December 9, Arizona Cardinals (6-6) @ Seattle Seahawks (8-4) : OK...how interesting is this game? If Seattle wins they clinch the division, probably end Arizona's play-off chances, and all but lock up the #3 Seed in the NFC because of their remaining schedule. If the Cards win, they keep their play-off hopes alive and even give themselves and outside shot at winning the division thanks to a favorable schedule down the stretch.

Unfortunately for Arizona, the ‘Hawks are insanely good at home (going 21-4 over the last three seasons at Qwest Field counting the play-offs) and they probably go into the game without their two bets offensive weapons, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Their offense was inconsistent even with both men playing.

Seattle is going to end a lot of the potential drama in the NFC Play-off chase by beating Arizona.



Owens: Is it true? ARE we bringing SEXY back? Romo: Why, yes…yes we are.

Sunday, December 9, Dallas Cowboys (11-1) @ Detroit Lions (6-6): Let's see…the Dallas defense has one of the best front-sevens in the NFL. Detroit can't stop anyone.

Dallas has the SEXIEST scoring tandem in the NFL: ROMOWENS! The Lions have a QB with a badly receding hairline who throws too many picks and makes terrible predictions about his team winning ten games.

Dallas has two talented RBS. Detroit's running game is so bad that if they lined up against one of those papier-mâché signs that cheerleaders hold up at The Homecoming Game, they'd probably lose two yards.

So does Detroit have ANY kind of chance this week? No. So why is this game being previewed? I like to kick Detroit fans when they're down. Woot!

Thursday, December 6, Chicago Bears (5-7) @ Washington Redskins (5-7): OK..even though I've said that both of these teams probably don't have a chance to make the play-offs, both teams have been …you know what?

Screw it…

Sunday, December 9, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-4) @ Houston Texans (5-7): This game probably won't be as entertaining, but BOTH teams still have a shot at the play-offs and this is probably the last chance for Tampa Bay to get a win over a team that can be considered even remotely "good." The Texans have a young, talented defense and have played very hard even while dropping 5 of their last 7. Hell, they've been in every game this year except one and might really be in the play-off hunt if not for QB Matt Schaub's various injuries.

Tampa….well, I've said it repeatedly….they haven't actually beaten anybody. That doesn't start this week. Houston wins.

Well, that's all for this week. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, the NFL is really starting to heat up. And while many of you out there THINK you know how it will all play out, we all know that the real joy of the NFL is in watching the drama unfold. This year's play-offs are going to be amazing. The road to get there should be nearly as good.

This has been The 5 Step Drop….GO DEEP!!!!