The NFL Preview With The Rizz 12.08.07: Week 14

Posted by Randy Isbelle on 12.08.2007

Join me as we move one step closer to crowning the first ever 411 NFL Champion!

Results for Week 13

Straight Up: 10-6
Vs. Spread: 8-8

Overall Results

Straight Up: 117-75 (61%) Same
Vs. Spread: 88-95-9 (48%) Same


Here are my revamped (Since Week 12) goals for 2007 are as follows:

Straight up: 65 %
Vs. Spread: 50 %

Match-Up	Vs. Spread Pick	Straight-Up Pick	Result	Vs. Spread	Straight Up
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys			Green Bay 27 Dallas 37	Incorrect	CORRECT
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers			San Francisco 14 Carolina 31	CORRECT	CORRECT
Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins			Buffalo 17 Washington 16	Incorrect	Incorrect
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans			Houston 20 Tennessee 28	CORRECT	CORRECT
Atlanta Falcons at St. Louis Rams			Arizona 16 St. Louis 28	CORRECT	CORRECT
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles			Seattle 28 Philadelphia 24	Incorrect	Incorrect
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings			Detroit 10 Minnesota 42	CORRECT	CORRECT
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts			Jacksonville 25 Indianapolis 28	CORRECT	Incorrect
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs			San Diego 24 Kansas City 10	Incorrect	Incorrect
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins			NY Jets 40 Miami 13	CORRECT	CORRECT
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders			Denver 20 Oakland 34	Incorrect	Incorrect
Cleveland Browns at Arizona Cardinals			Cleveland 21 Arizona 27	Incorrect	Incorrect
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints			Tampa Bay 27 New Orleans 23	CORRECT	CORRECT
NY Giants at Chicago Bears			NY Giants 21 Chicago 16	CORRECT	CORRECT
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers			Cincinnati 10 Pittsburgh 24	Incorrect	CORRECT
New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens			New England 27 Baltimore 24	Incorrect	CORRECT

The tournament has reached the Quarter Finals, but we still have nine teams remaining. How does that work you ask? Well the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Washington Redskins actually tied last week, so we will do it all over again this week. The winner will then go to their Quarter Final match-up with the Miami Dolphins.

First Round	Second Round	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	FINALS
Week 81. New England Patriots (+66) 32. St. Louis Rams (-12)	Week 121. New England Patriots (+19.5) 16. Minnesota Vikings (+43)	Week 14 16. Minnesota Vikings 25. Buffalo Bills	Week 16 TBD TBD	Week 17 TBD TBD
Week 816. Minnesota Vikings (-12) 17. Houston Texans (-39.5)
Week 99. Tennessee Titans (+25) 24. Detroit Lions +56	Week 1324. Detroit Lions (-38) 25. Buffalo Bills (+12)
Week 98. Seattle Seahawks (-8) 25. Buffalo Bills (+24.5)
Week 105. New York Giants (-18) 28. San Francisco 49ers (-25)	Week 125. New York Giants (-37.5) 12. Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5)	Week 15 12. Philadelphia Eagles 13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1012. Philadelphia Eagles (+15.5) 21. Cleveland Browns (-11.5)
Week 1113.Tampa Bay Buccaneers(+38) 20. Oakland Raiders (-5)	Week 1313. TB Buccaneers (+22.5) 29. Denver Broncos (-27.5)
Week 114. Dallas Cowboys (+13.5) 29. Denver Broncos (+26.5)
Week 93. Pittsburgh Steelers (+50.5) 30. Atlanta Falcons (+21.5)	Week 133. Pittsburgh Steelers (+12.5) 19. Kansas City Chiefs (-27)	Week 14 3. Pittsburgh Steelers 11. San Diego Chargers	Week 16 TBD TBD
Week 914. Carolina Panthers (-25) 19. Kansas City Chiefs (-18)
Week 811. San Diego Chargers (+45.5) 22. Cincinnati Bengals (-14)	Week 1211. San Diego Chargers (+33) 6. Green Bay Packers (+19.5)
Week 86. Green Bay Packers (+14.5) 27. New York Jets (-18)
Week 117. Washington Redskins (-8.5) 26. New Orleans Saints (-19)	Week 137. Washington Redskins (-8) 10. Jacksonville Jaguars (-8)	Week 15 TBD 31. Miami Dolphins
Week 1110. Jacksonville Jaguars (+20.5) 23. Chicago Bears (-12)
Week 1015. Baltimore Ravens (-36) 18. Arizona Cardinals (+10.5)	Week 1218. Arizona Cardinals (-19) 31. Miami Dolphins (-9)
Week 102. Indianapolis Colts (-9) 31. Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

The Playoffs to this point:






In The Playoffs

1. New England Patriots - 12-0 Clinched AFC East Division
2. Indianapolis Colts - 10-2
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - 9-3 Still In The 411 Tournament
4. San Diego Chargers - 7-5 Still In The 411 Tournament
5. Jacksonville Jaguars - 8-4 Still In The 411 Tournament
6. Cleveland Browns - 7-5

Still In The Hunt

7. Tennessee Titans – 7-5
8. Buffalo Bills – 6-6 Still In The 411 Tournament
9. Denver Broncos – 5-7
10. Houston Texans – 5-7

All But Eliminated

11. Kansas City Chiefs – 4-8
12. Oakland Raiders – 4-8
13. Cincinnati Bengals – 4-8
14. Baltimore Ravens – 4-8

Eliminated

15. New York Jets – 3-9
16. Miami Dolphins – 0-12 Still In The 411 Tournament






In The Playoffs

1. Dallas Cowboys – 11-1 Clinched Playoff Spot
2. Green Bay Packers – 10-2
3. Seattle Seahawks – 8-4
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 8-4 Still In The 411 Tournament
5. New York Giants – 8-4
6. Arizona Cardinals – 6-6

Still In The Hunt

7. Detroit Lions – 6-6
8. Minnesota Vikings – 6-6 Still In The 411 Tournament
9. Washington Redskins – 6-7 Still In The 411 Tournament
10. Carolina Panthers – 5-7
11. New Orleans Saints – 5-7
12. Philadelphia Eagles – 5-7 Still In The 411 Tournament
13. Chicago Bears – 5-8

All But Eliminated

14. Atlanta Falcons – 3-9
15. San Francisco 49ers – 3-9
16. St. Louis Rams – 3-9



If The Playoffs Started Today



WILD-CARD WEEKEND


#6 Cleveland Browns at #3 Pittsburgh Steelers



#5 Jacksonville Jaguars at # 4 San Diego Chargers


DIVISIONAL ROUND


TBD at # 1 New England Patriots




TBD at #2 Indianapolis Colts


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP


TBD at TBD




WILD-CARD WEEKEND


#6 Arizona Cardinals at #3 Seattle Seahawks



#5 New York Giants at # 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers


DIVISIONAL ROUND


TBD at # 1 Dallas Cowboys




TBD at #2 Green Bay Packers


NFC CHAMPIONSHIP


TBD at TBD



AFC Week 14 scenarios:

New England Patriots:

- Can clinch homefield advantage throughout AFC playoffs: 1) NE Win + IND loss
- Can clinch first-round bye: 1)NE Win

Indianapolis Colts:

- Can clinch the AFC South Division: 1) IND Win + JAC loss + TEN loss or tie
- Can clinch a playoff berth: 1) IND win + CLE loss or tie
OR: 2) IND win + JAC loss
OR: 3) IND win or tie + TEN loss or tie
OR: 4) IND tie + CLE loss
OR: 5) TEN loss + BUF loss or tie
OR: 6) TEN loss + CLE loss

Pittsburgh Steelers:

- Can clinch the AFC North Division: 1) PIT win + CLE loss
- Can clinch a playoff berth: 1) PIT win + TEN loss

San Diego Chargers:

- Can clinch the AFC West Division: 1) SD win + DEN loss


NFC Week 14 scenarios:

Dallas Cowboys:

- Can clinch the NFC East Division: 1) DAL win
OR 2) NYG loss
OR 3) DAL tie + NYG tie
- Dallas clinches a first-round bye: 1) DAL win + SEA loss or tie + TB loss or tie
OR 2) DAL tie + NYG loss or tie + SEA loss + TB loss

Green Bay Packers:

- Can clinch the NFC North Division: 1) GB win or tie
OR 2) DET loss or tie
- Green Bay clinches a playoff berth: 1) ARI loss or tie

Seattle Seahawks:

- Can clinch the NFC West Division: 1) SEA win

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

- Can clinch the NFC South Division: 1)TB win
OR 2) NO loss + CAR loss
OR 3) TB tie + NO loss or tie + CAR loss or tie

New York Giants:

- Can clinch a playoff berth: 1) NYG win + CAR loss or tie + DET loss + NO loss or tie + ARI loss + MIN loss or tie


This week we are going with a lighter look to my preview, as Christmas parties and the real world have taken up too much of my time this week. Next week is my breakdown of each of the possible playoff contenders, so this week we will just be going with the quick six and my predictions.



St. Louis Rams (+4) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2003 (St. Louis won 27-10)
- St. Louis has won the last three meetings
- The series is tied at 5-5
- WR Chad Johnson ranks third in AFC and fourth in the NFL with 1,127 receiving yards
- LB Will Witherspoon aims for his sixth straight game with a sack
- Cincinnati is headed for its 16th non-winning season in its last 17

Prediction: A game between two teams playing only for pride. Cincinnati is a team that seems to play well when they want to, but then lay an egg the next week. The Rams are on roll, winning three games against teams that have not done much this season, but also took Seattle to the test. St. Louis has been winning the games they should lately, and they should win this game as well.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Dallas Cowboys (-10 ½) at Detroit Lions

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on New Year's Eve 2006 (Detroit won 39-31)
- Dallas has won three of the last four meetings
- The Cowboys lead the all-time series 10-9
- Owens leads the NFC with 14 touchdown catches and needs one to pass Frank Clarke for most by a Cowboys player in a single season
- WR Shaun McDonald has set career-highs in catches (59), yards (704) and TDs (4)
- The Dallas Cowboys are 5-0 on the road this season

Prediction: Detroit is in a free fall, and now get to face their toughest competition to date, I just don't like their chances.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Oakland Raiders (+10 ½) at Green Bay Packers

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2003 (Green Bay won 41-7)
- Green Bay has won the last four meetings
- Oakland leads the all-time series 5-4
- Raiders DT Warren Sapp needs 3½ sacks to become just the second DT with 100 (John Randle, 137½)
- DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila (9½) and Aaron Kampman (11) have combined for 20½ sacks, tied for most by any duo in the NFL this season
- Brett Favre looks to make his 250th consecutive start

Prediction: Oakland has won two in a row, but they weren't playing anybody like the Green Bay Packers in those games.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Miami Dolphins (+7) at Buffalo Bills

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 10 this season (Buffalo won 13-10)
- Buffalo has won six of the last seven meetings
- Miami leads the overall series 49-33-1
- Lindell has made 17 consecutive field goals and needs one more to surpass Steve Christie (17 in 1994) for most consecutive field goals in franchise history
- In three starts Beck has yet to throw for a touchdown, has been picked off three times and is averaging 139.3 passing yards
- The Dolphins and Minnesota are tied for 29th with eight passing TDs this season. Buffalo is last in the league with six

Prediction: Don't find me picking the Miami Dolphins to win a game anytime soon.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) at Houston Texans

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in the 2003 season opener (Tampa Bay won 16-3)
- Tampa Bay leads the all-time series 1-0
- Formerly a member of the Colts, Bucs linebacker Cato June has faced the Texans eight times in his career and has been on the losing end of only one of those match-ups
- The Texans opened the season with consecutive victories, but have won just three of their last 10 games
- Tampa Bay leads the NFC with 291.8 yards allowed per game
- DE Mario Williams leads the Houston Texans with 8.5 sacks

Prediction: Tampa Bay is on a roll, and they continue this week.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

San Diego Chargers (PICK) at Tennessee Titans

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week 2 of last season (San Diego won 40-7)
- San Diego has won the last four meetings
- The Chargers lead the all-time series 21-13-1
- The Chargers are 10-1 when LB Shawne Merriman has at least two sacks. Merriman had a season-high three sacks last week
- Titans QB Vince Young is 5-1 in December and did not play in last year's meeting at San Diego
- San Diego is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games

Prediction: Last year, Vince Young and the Tennessee Titans ran wild in December, and this season if they do that they will find themselves in the playoffs. While they still might do that, I don't see them winning this game.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Carolina Panthers (+10 ½) at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in the 2003 season-opener (Carolina won 24-23)
- Carolina leads the all-time series 2-1
- Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew has 25 touchdowns in his past 26 games
- Carolina is 1-5 against the spread in their last six games
- The Panthers are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight road games
- Jacksonville is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games

Prediction: This game is simple, Carolina has quarterback issues while Jacksonville has a quarterback who has only thrown one interception all season.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

New York Giants (+2 ½) at Philadelphia Eagles

The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 4 (New York won 16-3)
- New York has won three of the past four meetings
- The Giants lead the all time series 77-66-2
- Defensive end Michael Strahan has more sacks against the Eagles (21½) than he has against any other team
- The Giants are 5-0 in their last five road games
- Philadelphia is 5-2 in their last seven home games against the Giants

Prediction: As fellow 411 writer, Ken Schmidt, asked me earlier this week "how are the Eagles favored in this game?" I guess it is because McNabb is coming back, but does anybody remember the last time these two teams met, and the 12 sacks? I predict nine sacks this time and another win for the Giants.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Arizona Cardinals (+7) at Seattle Seahawks


The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 2 (Arizona won 23-20)
- Arizona has won the last two meetings
- The Cardinals lead the all-time series 9-8
- Receiver Bryant Johnson had a touchdown in three of the last four games against the Seahawks, and could be big with Cardinals receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin banged up
- Defensive end Patrick Kerney has seven sacks and three forced fumbles in his last four games
- Arizona is 6-19 in their last 25 road games

Prediction: Arizona got lucky to get by the Browns, and just don't play well on the road. Seattle has shown to just find ways to win games, and they will do the same this week.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Minnesota Vikings (-8 ½) at San Francisco 49ers


The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week 9 of last season (San Francisco won 9-3)
- Minnesota has won two of the last three meetings
- The all-time series is tied, 18-18-1
- The Vikings' run defense ranks first in the NFL, allowing just over 70 yards per game
- Receiver Arnaz Battle has a reception in 32 consecutive games
- San Francisco is 10-4 in their last 14 games against Minnesota

Prediction: Minnesota is one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and will run all over the 49ers this week.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Pittsburgh Steelers (+13) at New England Patriots


The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2005 (New England won 23-20)
- New England won three of the last four meetings
- Pittsburgh leads the overall series 12-6
- The Patriots rank first in average points scored (39.1), total yards (425.3), and passing yards (304.0), while the Steelers rank first in points allowed (12.9), total yards allowed (230.8), and passing yards allowed (154.0)
- New England is 14-4 against the spread in their last 18 games
- Pittsburgh is 4-8-1 against the spread in the last 13 games on the road

Prediction: I've said for weeks that New England will go undefeated this season, but I don't think that they will cover the large spread.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Cleveland Browns (-3 ½) at New York Jets


The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 8 of last season (Cleveland won 20-13)
- Cleveland has won three of the last four meetings
- The Browns lead the overall series 11-7
- The Browns are averaging 34.1 points in seven wins this season
- Cleveland is 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games
- The NY Jets are 3-6-1 against the spread in their last 10 games

Prediction: The Jets showed a lot of improvement, even if it was against a winless Dolphins team, and have impressed me enough for me to pick them against a better team.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Kansas City Chiefs (+6 ½) at Denver Broncos


The Quick Six:
- Last meeting on Week 10 (Denver won 27-11)
- Denver has won three of the last five meetings
- Kansas City leads the all-time series 52-42
- Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe leads all rookies with 54 receptions and 786 yards
- The Broncos are 9-3 at home against the Chiefs in Mike Shanahan's career
- Denver is 17-8 in their last 25 games at home

Prediction: Denver just can't seem to put a full game together anymore, however, they do play well at home. Kansas City has not impressed me the last two weeks, and therefore I am going to go with the Broncos at home.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Indianapolis Colts (-9 ½) at Baltimore Ravens


The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in 2005 (Indianapolis won 24-7)
- Indianapolis has won the last three meetings
- The Colts lead the series 4-2
- Manning needs 23 completions to surpass Joe Montana for eighth place on all-time completions list
- The Colts are 15-8 (.652) under Tony Dungy (2002-present) in December
- The Ravens have won six of their last seven games in December

Prediction: The Baltimore Ravens used too much energy and emotion in their loss last week against the Patriots, making this week their letdown game. Not that it mattered, as the Colts would beat on the Ravens even if Baltimore had a bye week before this game.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

New Orleans Saints (-5) at Atlanta Falcons


The Quick Six:
- Last meeting in Week 7 (New Orleans won 22-16)
- New Orleans has won three straight meetings
- Atlanta leads the overall series 43-33
- New Orleans cornerback Mike McKenzie leads the NFL with two interception returns for touchdowns this season
- New Orleans is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games against Atlanta
- Atlanta is 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 home games

Prediction: Reggie Bush is injured and may not play, but Drew Brees seems to play better on the road. This game will be ugly and I won't be watching, but New Orleans will get the win.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up