The NFL Preview With The Rizz 12.15.07: Week 15 (Part 1)

Posted by Randy Isbelle on 12.15.2007

The NFL Preview gets a face lift as we reach the home-stretch of the regular season. I celebrate my one-year anniversary with an all new look, come check it out.

Results for Week 14

Straight Up: 12-4
Vs. Spread: 10-6

Overall Results

Straight Up: 129-79 (62%) +1 %
Vs. Spread: 98-101-9 (49%) +1 %


Here are my revamped (Since Week 12) goals for 2007 are as follows:

Straight up: 65 %
Vs. Spread: 50 %

We have a whole new look here in my preview column, I hope you all like it. Please email me, or go to the bottom and leave me a comment and tell me what you think. Also I want to thank Ashish and everybody else for allowing my to write for 411, as this column is my 1-year anniversary. I started last season on Week 15, and from humble beginnings I am now to this massive column (57 pages on Word to be exact). I hope that you are able to use this column to help you out, and that it is actually helpful to you. I do my best each week to put the best product I can, even if life doesn't give me the time to do it. I hope that the next year brings even greater work from me as I look to improve each and every week. Thank you for reading all my stuff, and hopefully enjoying it as well, if it wasn't for you readers then what I do wouldn't be worth it. It has been a fun first year, and next year will be so much better, just stick with The Rizz as I give you as much information as I can in a short period of time.

Let's start with how last week ended up:

	1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final
Chicago	0	0	10	6	16		St. Louis	0	0	7	3	10		Dallas	0	14	0	14	28
Washington	0	7	7	10	24		Cincinnati	7	3	6	3	19		Detroit	10	10	7	0	27
Chicago Bears (5-8, 3-4 away) Washington Redskins (6-7, 4-3 home)							St. Louis Rams (3-10, 2-5 away) Cincinnati Bengals (5-8, 4-3 home)							Dallas Cowboys (12-1, 6-0 away) Detroit Lions (6-7, 4-3 home)
Passing: Griese (CHI) 295 yds Rushing: Portis (WAS) 36 yds Receiving: Cooley (WAS) 93 yds							Passing: Palmer (CIN) 189 yds Rushing: Johnson (CIN) 92 yds Receiving: Holt (STL) 90 yds							Passing: Romo (DAL) 302 yds Rushing: Jones (DET) 92 yds Receiving: Witten (DAL) 138 yds
My Picks							My Picks							My Picks
Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up
Chicago Bears (+3)			Chicago Bears				St. Louis Rams (+4)			St. Louis Rams				Dallas Cowboys (-10 1/2)			Dallas Cowboys
	1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final
Oakland	0	7	0	0	7		Miami	7	0	10	0	17		Tampa Bay	0	7	7	0	14
Green Bay	0	14	17	7	38		Buffalo	24	7	0	7	38		Houston	7	7	7	7	28
Oakland Raiders (4-9, 2-5 away) Green Bay Packers (11-2, 6-1 home)							Miami Dolphins (0-13, 0-7 away) Buffalo Bills (7-6, 4-3 home)							Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-5, 3-4 away) Houston Texans (6-7, 4-2 home)
Passing: Favre (GNB) 266 yds Rushing: Grant (GNB) 156 yds Receiving: Jennings (GNB) 100 yds							Passing: Lemon (MIA) 241 yds Rushing: Jackson (BUF) 115 yds Receiving: Hagan (MIA) 93 yds							Passing: McCown (TAM) 266 yds Rushing: Graham (TAM) 61 yds Receiving: Galloway (TAM) 87 yds
My Picks							My Picks							My Picks
Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up
Green Bay Packers (-10 ½)			Green Bay Packers				Buffalo Bills (-7)			Buffalo Bills				Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)			Tampa Bay Buccaneers
	1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final
San Diego	0	0	3	14 (6)	23		Carolina	0	6	0	0	6		NY Giants	0	6	10	0	16
Tennessee	3	0	7	7 (0)	17		Jacksonville	7	3	10	17	37		Philadelphia	7	0	3	3	13
San Diego Chargers (8-5, 3-4 away) Tennessee Titans (7-6, 4-3 home)							Carolina Panthers (5-8, 4-3 away) Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4, 5-2 home)							New York Giants (9-4, 6-1 away) Philadelphia Eagles (5-8, 2-5 home)
Passing: Rivers (SDG) 228 yds Rushing: Tomlinson 146 yds Receiving: Chambers (SDG) 90 yds							Passing: Garrard (JAC) 230 yds Rushing: Taylor (JAC) 132 yds Receiving: Williams (JAC) 90 yds							Passing: Manning (NYG) 219 yds Rushing: Westbrook (PHI) 116 yds Receiving: Burress (NYG) 136 yds
My Picks							My Picks							My Picks
Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up
San Diego Chargers (PICK)			San Diego Chargers				Jacksonville Jaguars (-10 ½)			Jacksonville Jaguars				New York Giants (+2 1/2)			New York Giants
	1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final
Arizona	0	7	7	7	21		Minnesota	10	17	0	0	27		Dallas	3	10	0	0	13
Seattle	10	17	0	15	42		San Francisco	0	0	7	0	7		New England	7	10	14	3	34
Arizona Cardinals (6-7, 2-5 away) Seattle Seahawks (9-4, 6-1 home)							Minnesota Vikings (7-6, 3-4 away) San Francisco (3-10, 1-5 home)							Pittsburgh Steelers (9-4, 2-4 away) New England Patriots (13-0, 6-0 home)
Passing: Warner (ARI) 337 Yds Rushing: James (ARI) 46 yds Receiving: Urban (ARI) 123 yds							Passing: Hill (SFO) 180 yds Rushing: Taylor (MIN) 101 yds Receiving: Walker (SFO) 65 yds							Passing: Brady (NEW) 399 yds Rushing: Parker (PIT) 124 yds Receiving: Moss (NWE) 135 yds
My Picks							My Picks							My Picks
Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up
Seattle Seahawks (-7)			Seattle Seahawks				Minnesota Vikings (-8 1/2)			Minnesota Vikings				Pittsburgh Steelers (+13)			New England Patriots
	1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final			1	2	3	4	Final
Cleveland	0	7	7	10	24		Kansas City	0	7	0	0	7		Indianapolis	23	14	7	0	44
NY Jets	0	3	3	12	18		Denver	14	10	17	0	41		Baltimore	0	7	0	13	20
Cleveland Browns (8-5, 3-4 away) New York Jets (3-10, 2-5 home)							Kansas City Chiefs (4-9, 2-4 away) Denver Broncos (6-7, 4-3 home)							Indianapolis Colts (11-2, 6-1 away) Baltimore Ravens (4-9, 3-4 home)
Passing: Clemens (NYJ) 286 yds Rushing: Lewis (CLE) 118 yds Receiving: Cotchery (NYJ) 119 yds							Passing: Cutler (DEN) 244 yds Rushing: Young (DEN) 156 yds Receiving: Marshall (DEN) 115 yds							Passing: Manning (IND) 249 yds Rushing: McGahee (BAL) 45 yds Receiving: Gonzalez (IND) 134 yds
My Picks							My Picks							My Picks
Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up				Vs. Spread			Straight Up
New York Jets (+3 1/2)			New York Jets				Denver Broncos (-6 1/2)			Denver Broncos				Indianapolis Colts (-9 1/2)			Indianapolis Colts

	1	2	3	4	Final
New Orleans	7	10	14	3	34
Atlanta	7	0	0	7	14
New Orleans Saints Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Brees (NOS) 328 yds Rushing: Stecker (NOS) 100 yds Receiving: Patten (NOS) 122 yds
My Picks
Vs. Spread			Straight Up
New Orleans Saints (-5)			New Orleans

With Week 14 behind us, the playoffs are starting to take form, here are your standings after Week 14:

AFC
AFC East
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
New England Patriots	13	0	0	1.000	503	222	281	6-0	7-0	4-0	10-0	3-0	13W	5-0
Buffalo Bills	7	6	0	.538	222	291	-69	4-3	3-3	4-2	6-5	1-1	2W	3-2
New York Jets	3	10	0	.231	239	315	-76	2-5	1-5	2-3	3-6	0-4	1L	2-3
Miami Dolphins	0	13	0	.000	213	355	-142	0-6	0-7	0-5	0-9	0-4	13L	0-5
AFC North
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Pittsburgh Steelers	9	4	0	.692	309	189	120	7-0	2-4	5-0	7-3	2-1	1L	3-2
Cleveland Browns	8	5	0	.615	360	356	4	5-1	3-4	3-2	6-4	2-1	1W	3-2
Cincinati Bengals	5	8	0	.385	310	326	-16	4-3	1-5	2-3	4-6	1-2	1W	3-2
Baltimore Ravens	4	9	0	.308	226	314	-88	3-4	1-5	0-5	1-9	3-0	7L	0-5
AFC South
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Indianapolis Colts	11	2	0	.846	381	217	164	5-1	6-1	4-0	7-2	4-0	4W	4-1
Jacksonville Jaguars	9	4	0	.692	305	229	76	5-2	4-2	2-3	6-3	3-1	1W	4-1
Tennessee Titans	7	6	0	.538	249	264	-15	4-3	3-3	3-2	4-5	3-1	1L	1-4
Houston Texans	6	7	0	.462	291	305	-14	4-2	2-5	0-4	3-6	3-1	1W	3-2
AFC West
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
San Diego Chargers	8	5	0	.615	308	250	58	5-1	3-4	3-1	7-3	1-2	3W	4-1
Denver Broncos	6	7	0	.462	282	336	-54	4-3	2-4	3-2	6-4	0-3	1W	3-2
Kansas City Chiefs	4	9	0	.308	179	271	-92	2-5	2-4	2-4	3-7	1-2	6L	0-5
Oakland Raiders	4	9	0	.308	241	298	-57	2-4	2-5	2-3	4-5	0-4	1L	2-3

NFC
NFC East
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Dallas Cowboys	12	1	0	.923	423	275	148	6-1	6-0	4-0	9-0	3-1	7W	5-0
New York Giants	9	4	0	.692	290	270	20	3-3	6-1	3-2	7-4	2-0	2W	3-2
Washington Redskins	6	7	0	.462	253	273	-20	4-3	2-4	1-3	4-5	2-2	1W	1-4
Philadelphia Eagles	5	8	0	.385	271	262	9	2-5	3-3	1-4	3-7	2-1	3L	2-3
NFC North
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Green Bay Packers	11	2	0	.846	361	229	132	6-1	5-1	3-1	7-2	4-0	1W	4-1
Minnesota Vikings	7	6	0	.538	305	244	61	4-2	3-4	2-3	5-5	2-1	4W	4-1
Detroit Lions	6	7	0	.462	294	339	-45	4-3	2-4	3-2	4-7	2-0	5L	0-5
Chicago Bears	5	8	0	.385	253	296	-43	2-4	3-4	1-3	2-7	3-1	2L	2-3
NFC South
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	5	0	.615	255	215	40	5-1	3-4	4-0	7-2	1-3	1L	4-1
New Orleans Saints	6	7	0	.462	300	293	7	2-4	4-3	3-3	5-4	1-3	1W	2-3
Carolina Panthers	5	8	0	.385	210	294	-84	1-5	4-3	2-3	5-4	1-3	3L	2-3
Atlanta Falcons	3	10	0	.231	185	306	-121	2-5	1-5	1-4	2-7	1-3	4L	1-4
NFC West
Team	W	L	T	Pct	PF	PA	Net Pts	Home	Road	Div	Conf	Non-Conf	Streak	Last 5
Seattle Seahawks	9	4	0	.692	315	228	87	6-1	3-3	5-1	8-2	1-2	5W	5-0
Arizona Cardinals	6	7	0	.462	302	322	-20	4-2	2-5	2-3	3-6	3-1	1L	3-2
San Francisco 49ers	3	10	0	.231	171	312	-141	1-5	2-5	3-3	3-8	0-2	2L	1-4
St. Louis Rams	3	10	0	.231	206	316	-110	1-5	2-5	1-4	3-7	0-3	1L	3-2

Speaking of playoffs, the 411 tournament is reaching the home-stretch as we already have two of our final four. First let's take a look at the three match-ups from last week before we get a quick look at the tournament as we stand today.

	2nd Round
	Washington Redskins	Jacksonville Jaguars
Points	+8	+31
Yards	-1	+6
Turnovers	+3	+3
Penalties	-3.5	-3
Win	+10	+10
TOTAL	+16.5	+47

	Quarter Finals
	Minnesota Vikings	Buffalo Bills
Points	+20	+21
Yards	+0	+2
Turnovers	+12	+12
Penalties	-1.5	-4
Win	+10	+10
TOTAL	+40.5	+41

	Quarter Finals
	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers
Points	-21	+6
Yards	-2	+2
Turnovers	-3	-3
Penalties	-3	-2
Win	0	+10
TOTAL	-29	+13

First Round	Second Round	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	FINALS
Week 81. New England Patriots (+66) 32. St. Louis Rams (-12)	Week 121. NE Patriots (+19.5) 16. Minnesota Vikings (+43)	Week 14 16. Minn Vikings (+40.5) 25. Buffalo Bills (+41)	Week 16 25. Buffalo Bills TBD	Week 17 TBD TBD
Week 816. Minnesota Vikings (-12) 17. Houston Texans (-39.5)
Week 99. Tennessee Titans (+25) 24. Detroit Lions +56	Week 1324. Detroit Lions (-38) 25. Buffalo Bills (+12)
Week 98. Seattle Seahawks (-8) 25. Buffalo Bills (+24.5)
Week 105. New York Giants (-18) 28. San Francisco 49ers (-25)	Week 125. New York Giants (-37.5) 12. Philadelphia Eagles (-14.5)	Week 15 12. Philadelphia Eagles 13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1012. Philadelphia Eagles (+15.5) 21. Cleveland Browns (-11.5)
Week 1113.TB Buccaneers(+38) 20. Oakland Raiders (-5)	Week 1313. TB Buccaneers (+22.5) 29. Denver Broncos (-27.5)
Week 114. Dallas Cowboys (+13.5) 29. Denver Broncos (+26.5)
Week 93. Pittsburgh Steelers (+50.5) 30. Atlanta Falcons (+21.5)	Week 133. Pittsburgh Steelers (+12.5) 19. Kansas City Chiefs (-27)	Week 14 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (-29) 11. SD Chargers (+13)	Week 16 11. San Diego Chargers TBD
Week 914. Carolina Panthers (-25) 19. Kansas City Chiefs (-18)
Week 811. SD Chargers (+45.5) 22. Cincinnati Bengals (-14)	Week 1211. San Diego Chargers (+33) 6. Green Bay Packers (+19.5)
Week 86. Green Bay Packers (+14.5) 27. New York Jets (-18)
Week 117. Washington Redskins (-8.5) 26. New Orleans Saints (-19)	Week 13, 147. Wash Redskins (-8, +16.5) 10. Jack Jaguars (-8, +47)	Week 15 10. Jacksonville Jaguars 31. Miami Dolphins
Week 1110. Jack Jaguars (+20.5) 23. Chicago Bears (-12)
Week 1015. Baltimore Ravens (-36) 18. Arizona Cardinals (+10.5)	Week 1218. Arizona Cardinals (-19) 31. Miami Dolphins (-9)
Week 102. Indianapolis Colts (-9) 31. Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

And now for the big change, I hope this new set-up gives you easier access to information on all 15 games being played this weekend. Again, please email me or leave a comment, letting me know how you feel about it.

Week 15
5-8	Cincinnati Bengals (-10)	versus	San Francisco 49ers	3-10
December 15, 2007, 8:00 PM EST – Monster Park

Last Three Weeks

Cincinnati Bengals: It wasn't pretty, but the Cincinnati Bengals won their second game in three weeks and three of the last five. The Bengals are eliminated from any playoff hopes this week, but at least they are showing signs of life, finally. This week does not mean much in the NFL, but the following two Bengals' games do, as they get the Cleveland Browns next week, a team who is trying to hold on to the final wildcard spot while Cincinnati gets to play the role of spoiler. Then the game that could mean so much, even if it has nothing to do with the playoff picture as they face the Miami Dolphins who still have not one a game this season, the Bengals could/should be the Dolphins only real shot at winning a game this season. I've said it multiple weeks, but I feel like I need to say it again because it is so important for this team, if Cincinnati wants to be a real contender in the AFC and actually make the playoffs again then they must go out and get defense in the off-season.

San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are a complete mess, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Take away their two games against the Arizona Cardinals where they scored 20 and 37 points respectively, San Francisco has not scored 20 points in any game this season, in fact, the 49ers have only put up single digits in points five times this season, including one shutout. You don't need me to say it to realize that you can't win very many games when you can't score. I would go as far as to say that the horrible Baltimore Ravens offense is twice as better as this offense this season, the 49ers are that bad. Add in the fact that the 49ers have to play two playoff contenders, and unlike what I said about the Bengals, the 49ers are not capable of playing the role of spoiler, but instead I say they are the free win. As long as Tampa Bay and Cleveland stay focused then there is no way they will lose those games. I would love to say that the 49ers could go into the draft, having a top five pick, but remember that their pick goes to the New England Patriots, how fair is that?

Prediction: Well it is safe to say that the NFL Network picked the wrong game in this one. Unlike the Packers/Cowboys game two weeks ago, nobody will be very upset that they missed this game. Cincinnati has too much offense for the San Francisco, who just can not score, and the Bengals will look like a Super Bowl contender in this game, too bad they couldn't play them every week this season.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Cincinnati Bengals

San Francisco 49ers

Tennessee

W 35-6

@ Arizona

W 37-31

@ Pittsburgh

L 10-24

@ Carolina

L 14-31

St. Louis

W 19-10

Minnesota

L 7-27

Cincinnati

Team

San Francisco

23.8 (7th)

Pts For

13.2 (32nd)

25.1 (28th)

Pts Against

24.0 (23rd)

353.2 (7th)

Total Offense

235.8 (32nd)

256.1 (5th)

Passing Yards

150.2 (32nd)

97.2 (22nd)

Rushing Yards

85.5 (29th)

348.2 (26th)

Total Defense

341.1 (22nd)

231.7 (25th)

Passing Defense

217.6 (16th)

116.5 (22nd)

Rushing Defense

123.5 (26th)

+4 (13th)

Turnover Diff.

-13 (31st)

Cincinnati Leaders					San Francisco Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Palmer	320	491	3448	21	Dilfer	113	219	1166	7
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Watson	119	531	4.5	5	Gore	187	781	4.2	5
Johnson	163	481	3.0	3	Robinson	26	121	4.7	0
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Johnson	79	1187	15.0	6	Battle	45	558	12.4	5
Houshman.	96	966	10.1	11	Davis	42	413	9.8	2

Week 15
3-10	New York Jets	versus	New England Patriots (-24 1/2)	13-0
December 16, 2007, 1:00 PM EST – Gillette Stadium

Last Three Weeks

New York Jets: So this week the report is that the New York Jets started spy gate during the post season last year. Well, I won't be the first or last person to shoot this down as relevant for the main reason that the NFL did nothing about this, even though the Patriots had kicked the man off the field. If they had something on that tape, do you think that Bill Belichick would just sit back and allow the Jets to get away with it? No. Even so, this whole Spy Gate scandal has gotten to such crazy proportions and I for one am completely sick of it. The Jets are not going to lose this game by 70 points, hell the Ravens are worse then the Jets right now and they almost won the game. Now I know, the Ravens played with more heart then they had in two years, and put it all on the field to get that close, but you don't think the Jets will do the same thing? What would be a better feeling then giving your rivals their first, and probably only, loss of the season.

New England Patriots: The Patriots showed last week why they are the best team in NFL history, and Im sorry but if you want to disagree then please email me because I just don't see it. New England can do no wrong, other then maybe play down to their competition from time to time, and have a favorable schedule the rest of the way home. The only question is whether or not Belichick will worry more about resting his players or sticking it in the face of everybody that hates him. The sick thing about this whole New England team is the fact that they could do this for multiple seasons, as they have the 49ers first round pick, and from what some mock drafts are saying, that will give the Patriots Darren McFadden from Arkansas. Life is just that unfair.

Prediction: There is no way that I would take the New York Jets to actually win this game. With that said, I don't believe that this will be the blow out that most analysts are screaming for. New England will win the game, but I say by just three touchdowns, and they wont cover.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

New York Jets

New England Patriots

@ Dallas

L 3-34

Philadelphia

W 31-28

@ Miami

W 40-13

@ Baltimore

W 27-24

Cleveland

L 18-24

Pittsburgh

W 34-13

New York

Team

New England

18.4 (24th)

Pts For

38.7 (1st)

24.2 (25th)

Pts Against

17.1 (4th)

296.0 (26th)

Total Offense

425.0 (1st)

192.6 (23rd)

Passing Yards

311.3 (1st)

103.4 (19th)

Rushing Yards

113.7 (14th)

350.2 (28th)

Total Defense

294.0 (4th)

208.3 (11th)

Passing Defense

194.4 (6th)

141.9 (30th)

Rushing Defense

99.6 (13th)

-3 (19th)

Turnover Diff.

+18 (1st)

New York Leaders					New England Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Clemens	117	224	1414	4	Brady	334	476	4095	45
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Jones	255	944	3.7	1	Maroney	126	529	4.2	2
Washington	55	224	4.1	3	Morris	85	384	4.5	3
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Cotchery	60	849	14.2	1	Moss	82	1264	15.4	19
Coles	55	646	11.7	6	Welker	93	974	10.5	8

Click HERE for part 2!