The NFL Preview With The Rizz 12.22.07: Week 16 (Part 2)

Posted by Randy Isbelle on 12.22.2007

Wow, I can't believe there are only two weeks left in the regular season. Can we start over and do it again? Maybe with more Jets wins though.

In part one, I looked at the Saturday game as well as the morning games.


Now it is time to look at the rest of the Week 16 schedule.


With only two games left on the schedule, many teams look to make the playoffs, while others battle for positioning, while others play for pride…oh and then you have the Baltimore Ravens who are playing for…..money I guess.


Hopefully you are all liking the new format. Please let me know what you think by either posting a comment at the bottom of the page or emailing me at [e-mail]

Week 16
9-5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5)	versus	San Francisco 49ers	4-10
December 23, 2007, 4:05 PM EST – Monster Park

Last Three Weeks

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay became the fourth and final NFC team to clinch their division last week, and now have their eyes set on the Seattle Seahawks and the third seed. The interesting stat of the season, is that Tampa Bay continues the streak in the NFC South, where the team that finishes last one year then goes on to win the division title the following year. If this trend continues next season, then it will be Atlanta that is able to get over all the controversy to surprise everybody. The Buccaneers are one of the seven teams that will not be represented at the Pro Bowl this season, and I really feel that is a shame that you can make the playoffs but you still will not have one player in the Pro Bowl. Earnest Graham has been a great replacement for injured running backs, Carnell Williams and Michael Pittman, even setting a franchise record as he has rushed for a touchdown in six straight games and against a 49ers defense that ranks 23rd against the run you have to believe that Pittman will stretch that streak to seven.

San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco's defense might not have great numbers, but they are showing great improvement, only allowing 61 yards on the ground last week in their win over Cincinnati. The 49ers are loving their first round draft pick, linebacker Patrick Willis, who leads the NFL with 142 tackles, unfortunately for the 49ers, the only reason Willis leads in that category is because of the fact that their offense is so bad that their defense is on the field more then any other team in the NFL. In fact, the 49er defense is on the field for an average of six minutes longer then their offense, and that falls on all of the team's quarterback issues and Frank Gore who is having a disappointing season after he broke out last year. Another bright spot for San Francisco was the solid and steady play of former third-string quarterback Shaun Hill who, in his first NFL start, passed for 197 yards and two touchdowns.

Prediction: Hill will be the biggest factor in the game, as it is still tough for me to decide whether or not he will actually be a solid quarterback in this league or not. The fact that this game is in San Francisco is also a big factor, because it allows Hill to play in front of a favorable crowd to keep him poised and hopefully playing well. I don't think that San Francisco has the ability to upset Tampa Bay, but they might give them a scare.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

San Francisco 49ers

@ New Orleans

W 27-23

@ Carolina

L 14-31

@ Houston

W 28-14

Minnesota

L 7-27

Atlanta

W 37-3

Cincinnati

W 20-13

Team	SU	ATS	O/U
Tampa Bay	9-5	9-5	7-7
San Francisco	4-10	4-9-1	5-9

Tampa Bay

Team

San Francisco

20.9 (18th)

Pts For

13.6 (31st)

15.6 (1st)

Pts Against

23.2 (22nd)

320.9 (19th)

Total Offense

242.8 (32nd)

199.6 (19th)

Passing Yards

152.2 (32nd)

121.3 (10th)

Rushing Yards

90.6 (27th)

278.0 (3rd)

Total Defense

339.1 (23rd)

174.5 (2nd)

Passing Defense

220.1 (20th)

103.5 (14th)

Rushing Defense

119.0 (23rd)

+14 (4th)

Turnover Diff.

-13 (31st)

Tampa Bay Leaders					San Francisco Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Garcia	197	307	2244	12	Dilfer	113	219	1166	7
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Graham	213	877	4.1	10	Gore	216	919	4.3	5
Pittman	58	263	4.5	0	Robinson	26	121	4.7	0
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Galloway	56	985	17.6	6	Battle	47	581	12.4	5
Hilliard	59	672	11.4	1	Davis	47	459	9.8	3

Week 16
3-11	Atlanta Falcons	versus	Arizona Cardinals (-12)	6-8
December 23, 2007, 4:05 PM EST – University of Phoenix Stadium

Last Three Weeks

Atlanta Falcons: After last weeks pathetic showing of now former head coach Bobby Petrino, it was a surprise to nobody that Atlanta was thumped by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and look worse then ever, but can you blame them? Talk about nothing to play for, the quarterback you thought you were going to start the season with is now in jail serving a 23-month term, your head coach left you before the season was over to go back to college and you are so far out of the playoffs that if you could double your wins you still wouldn't make the playoffs. The Falcons are 18-28 while missing the playoffs for three straight seasons, and have never looked like the team that went to the NFC Championship game in 2005. The Falcons are on a five game losing streak while being outscored 53-161, and last week they managed to hit rock bottom (I hope) as they only managed a season-low 133 yards while Chris Redmen went 4 of 15 for 34 yards while throwing two interceptions. Atlanta went 0 for 9 on third down and only had the ball for 17:01 on offense, that is right; Atlanta had the ball for just over one quarter worth of the game, now talk about bad.

Arizona Cardinals: After looking like a playoff team, the Cardinals have been riddled with injuries, including quarterback Matt Leinart, safety Adrian Wilson, defensive ends Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor, cornerback Eric Green and offensive tackle Oliver Ross. Add that in with a slew of close losses, six losses of seven points or less, and Arizona could be the most disappointing team this season. The struggles will equal a ninth straight season where their season ended after Week 17. Kurt Warner has been up and down all season, and it continued last week against the Saints as he threw for three touchdowns, but also fumbled once, threw one interception and was sacked twice. The only thing the Cardinals can do is try and win their final two games to reach 8-8 and use the momentum, along with all of their key players getting healthy and a successful off-season to go into 2008 as a favorite to make the playoffs, and a NFC West contender.

Prediction: Atlanta is just horrible, so even though the number is 12 I think Arizona covers and the game will probably not be in doubt after the five minute mark in the first quarter.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Atlanta Falcons

Arizona Cardinals

@ St. Louis

L 16-28

Cleveland

W 27-21

New Orleans

L 14-34

@ Seattle

L 21-42

@ Tampa Bay

L 3-37

@ New Orleans

L 24-31

Team	SU	ATS	O/U
Atlanta	3-11	6-8	7-7
Arizona	6-8	7-6-1	9-5

Atlanta

Team

Arizona

13.4 (32nd)

Pts For

23.3 (10th)

24.5 (25th)

Pts Against

25.2 (27th)

289.1 (27th)

Total Offense

331.9 (14th)

196.6 (20th)

Passing Yards

242.6 (10th)

92.4 (25th)

Rushing Yards

89.3 (29th)

339.3 (24th)

Total Defense

331.7 (17th)

210.9 (12th)

Passing Defense

232.4 (27th)

128.4 (27th)

Rushing Defense

99.3 (11th)

+2 (14th)

Turnover Diff.

-9 (27th)

Atlanta Leaders					Arizona Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Harrington	215	348	2215	7	Warner	223	360	2748	21
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Dunn	204	635	3.1	3	James	274	1052	3.8	6
Norwood	84	536	6.4	1	Arrington	21	76	3.6	0
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
White	66	999	15.1	5	Fitzgerald	83	1166	14.0	8
Jenkins	52	999	15.1	5	Boldin	54	635	11.8	6

Week 16
1-13	Miami Dolphins	versus	New England Patriots (-21 1/2)	14-0
December 23, 2007, 4:15 PM EST – Gillette Stadium

Last Three Weeks

Miami Dolphins: The Miami Dolphins ruined one of the greatest storylines waiting to happen last week when they finally got their first win (which I predicted) against the Baltimore Ravens. Not only would it have been an undefeated team up against a winless team with only one game to follow, but until their win last week the Miami Dolphins had not won a single game since they beat the Patriots over a year ago. Add to the fact that the last team to beat the Patriots in the regular season was that same Miami team, and the media would have been all over this game. However, Miami got the monkey off their back and it was a very cool deal. A lot of people thought that it was sad to see a team celebrate like that after they won their first game in a regular season after losing 14 in a row, but really you would do the same thing. Their season has been one big disappointment and for them to finally get that first win was such a confidence booster you have to celebrate it. To the Dolphins, last week was their AFC Championship game, and with their win they have made it to the Super Bowl to face the best team in NFL history. A good friend of mine, and a huge Miami Dolphin fan, continues to remind me that the Dolphins love to upset the Patriots late in seasons, and they could do the exact same this week. Unfortunately for my friend and the Dolphins, this is not your regular Patriots team.

New England Patriots: The champagne continues to be on ice in Miami, as the old 1972 Miami Dolphin squad continue to wait for New England to finally lose a game. The Patriots had their worst showing of the season against the New York Jets, and they still won the game by double digits. Tom Brady was held without a touchdown pass for the first time all season and fantasy owners wept. Now I want to run down some of the season records the Patriots are chasing, lets just skip past the undefeated season, as that is a given but here are some of the other records that could get broken in this amazing season:

- Patriots single season passing record – Tom Brady 4,235 yards (needs only 320 yards to catch Drew Bledsow-4,555 yards in 1994)
- Single season TD receptions – Randy Moss 19 TDs (needs only 3 TDs to tie Jerry Rice-22 TDs in 1987
- Total points (season) – Patriots have 522 points (needs only 34 points to tie Minnesota-556 in 1998)
- Single season TD passes – Tom Brady has 45 TDs (needs 4 TDs to tie Peyton Manning-49 TDs in 2004)
- Patriots single season rec. record – Wes Welker has 96 receptions (needs 5 receptions to tie Troy Brown-101 receptions in 2001)

Those are some crazy records that could all go down in the following two weeks, but with games in New England and New York, and bad weather looming, you have to believe that the Patriots will be very careful with their star players while still trying to make history.

Prediction: This is easy…the Patriots win again, but the number is once again too high and the weather keeps this closer then it should be.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Miami Dolphins

New England Patriots

NY Jets

L 13-40

@ Baltimore

W 27-24

@ Buffalo

L 17-38

Pittsburgh

W 34-13

Baltimore

W 22-16

NY Jets

W 20-10

Team	SU	ATS	O/U
Miami	1-13	4-8-2	8-6
New England	14-0	10-4	10-4

Miami

Team

New England

16.8 (26th)

Pts For

37.4 (1st)

26.5 (31st)

Pts Against

16.6 (4th)

287.4 (28th)

Total Offense

413.6 (1st)

189.1 (25th)

Passing Yards

298.6 (1st)

98.2 (20th)

Rushing Yards

114.9 (12th)

334.4 (20th)

Total Defense

289.7 (4th)

178.5 (4th)

Passing Defense

190.8 (5th)

155.9 (32nd)

Rushing Defense

98.0 (9th)

-11 (29th)

Turnover Diff.

+19 (2nd)

Miami Leaders					New England Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Lemon	141	247	1479	4	Brady	348	503	4235	45
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Brown	119	602	5.1	4	Maroney	152	633	4.2	3
Chatman	107	435	4.1	1	Morris	85	384	4.5	3
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Booker	46	518	11.3	1	Moss	87	1343	15.4	19
Brown	39	389	10.0	1	Welker	96	1004	10.5	8

Week 16
4-10	Baltimore Ravens	versus	Seattle Seahawks (-7)	9-5
December 23, 2007, 4:15 PM EST – Qwest Field

Last Three Weeks

Baltimore Ravens: If you felt that Brian Billick should still be allowed to keep his job even after a rough season, you might have started to change your mind after their embarrassing loss to the previously winless Miami Dolphins. The Ravens are a complete joke, losing eight in a row and looking pathetic on offense. The sad thing is that their season has been over for a while so what are they playing for? Pride…or so you would think. However, they showed no pride last week when they faced a 4th and a foot with a chance to win the game. Instead of going out there and giving it a shot, since hell what do you have to lose, they went out and kicked a game tying field goal, but if that was just it then I wouldn't be so frustrated. They then win the coin toss and drive down the field, and the moment they get into field goal range, they run the ball up the middle three times, instead of trying to get closer with a pass, and ended up missing the 44-yard field goal and just three plays later the game was over. And now you would think that they would allow Troy Smith, who looked good in his little time against Miami, to get his first start and see what he can do, they sit him back on the bench and give the ball back to Kyle Boller who should not be allowed to try and prove himself anymore as he has had too many opportunities and has failed in each one.

Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks had been showing that being one-dimensional on offense could work as they were mowing through teams on their way to their NFC West title and potential playoff run, and then the Carolina Panthers came to play. Seattle's offense looked inept, as the strong winds killed their passing game and with no running game to speak of, the Seahawks were stuck in a low scoring battle that didn't see its first point till the fourth quarter. Seattle didn't score their first, and only, touchdown until one second left when Matt Hasselbeck threw a 15-yard pass to Deion Branch in what was only good to hide the fact that Seattle could not get anything going all game. At the moment, Seattle is set to play the Giants in the first round in the playoffs but their best match-up would be against the Minnesota Vikings, who are best against the run, which Seattle can't do anyways so it would be strength vs. weakness and Seattle would rely on Hasselbeck to bring them the victory. Their loss last week snapped a seven game streak with at least 24 points, a streak that they hope to restart this week against Baltimore.

Prediction: To say I hate the Baltimore Ravens right now would be a complete understatement, their management has not done a single thing right this season, and if they don't make major changes in the off-season then I will actually be routing for them to go 0-16, they are that pathetic.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Baltimore Ravens

Seattle Seahawks

New England

L 24-27

@ Philadelphia

W 28-24

Indianapolis

L 20-44

Arizona

W 42-21

@ Miami

L 16-22

@ Carolina

L 10-13

Team	SU	ATS	O/U
Baltimore	4-10	2-12	9-4-1
Seattle	9-5	8-5-1	6-8

Baltimore

Team

Seattle

17.3 (25th)

Pts For

23.2 (11th)

24 (24th)

Pts Against

17.2 (5th)

300.4 (23rd)

Total Offense

339.0 (13th)

192.4 (21st)

Passing Yards

245.6 (8th)

107.9 (18th)

Rushing Yards

93.4 (24th)

301.8 (6th)

Total Defense

320.9 (13th)

224.8 (23rd)

Passing Defense

219.9 (19th)

77.0 (2nd)

Rushing Defense

101.0 (13th)

-18 (32nd)

Turnover Diff.

+12 (5th)

Baltimore Leaders					Seattle Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Boller	168	275	1743	9	Hasselbeck	319	510	3620	25
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
McGahee	289	1187	4.1	7	Alexander	186	612	3.3	3
Smith	46	156	3.4	1	Morris	112	497	4.4	3
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Mason	92	917	10.0	4	Engram	85	1013	11.9	5
Clayton	43	466	10.8	0	Branch	47	637	13.6	4

Week 16
3-11	New York Jets	versus	Tennessee Titans (-10)	8-6
December 23, 2007, 4:15 PM EST – LP Field

Last Three Weeks

New York Jets: Could the Kellen Clemens era be over so soon? Well a rib injury seems to have possibly ended Clemens season in my opinion at least, he is questionable for Sunday but with nothing to play for why put a man out there when he is injured? The injury will probably give Chad Pennington his first start since October 28th. Pennington showed last week exactly what he has shown, when healthy, his entire career. A great completion percentage for minimal yards ending up in very few points for their offense, in fact the only touchdown for the Jets last week against the Patriots was off of a blocked punt return. Pennington is a great back-up as he comes in there and just maintains the offense instead of some teams where if your starter goes down then your season ends, however, Pennington just is no longer starter material but only because of all the damage to the shoulder. With the lack of the arm strength, Pennington just can't throw the deep ball, and that allows defenses to creep up and put eight in the box, which totally kills your running game. However, the Jets have played well in the past weeks, keeping it close in their last two games against two playoff-bound teams, and they should keep this game close as well.

Tennessee Titans: Tennessee can only look back at the 2007 season and ask themselves what if. After starting 6-2, the Titans have fallen apart and now find themselves needing wins over the Jets and Colts along with some help to make the post-season. It is not likely, and it is a shame because Tennessee has been a solid team, that and they were my surprise Super Bowl pick…so much for that one. Vince Young has been hit with the sophomore slump, throwing only nine touchdowns while throwing 16 interceptions this season. Tennessee needs to focus on the run, as they are going up against one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, and a healthy dose of LenDale White should spell a victory for Tennessee, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive.

Prediction: As long as Pennington can complete 70% of his passes which would allow the Jets to maintain control of the football, and keep Vince Young on the sidelines, then New York has a chance to win this game. Tennessee needs to go with a 3:1 run to pass ratio against the Jets, and just run all over them. Both game plans equal into a low scoring game, which makes a 10 point spread tough to pass. Tennessee will win the game, but in a tight one as Young wins with a last minute drive to keep their playoff hopes alive.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

New York Jets

Tennessee Titans

@ Miami

W 40-13

Houston

W 28-20

Cleveland

L 18-24

San Diego

L 17-23

@ New England

L 10-20

@ Kansas City

W 26-17

Team	SU	ATS	O/U
NY Jets	3-11	5-8-1	6-7-1
Tennessee	8-6	7-7	5-8-1

NY Jets

Team

Tennessee

17.8 (24th)

Pts For

19.6 (20th)

23.9 (23rd)

Pts Against

20.1 (11th)

291.6 (26th)

Total Offense

311.3 (21st)

189.1 (25th)

Passing Yards

176.7 (27th)

102.6 (19th)

Rushing Yards

134.6 (4th)

344.1 (26th)

Total Defense

298.2 (5th)

203.0 (10th)

Passing Defense

200.8 (9th)

141.1 (30th)

Rushing Defense

97.4 (7th)

-4 (20th)

Turnover Diff.

+1 (15th)

NY Jets Leaders					Tennessee Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Pennington	153	228	1501	9	Young	212	342	2223	9
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Jones	264	963	3.6	1	White	265	960	3.6	7
Washington	59	281	4.8	3	Brown	89	427	4.8	3
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Cotchery	66	902	13.7	1	Williams	45	606	13.5	4
Coles	55	646	11.7	6	Gage	45	598	13.3	2

Week 16
7-7	Washington Redskins	versus	Minnesota Vikings (-6 ½)	8-6
December 23, 2007, 8:15 PM EST – The Metrodome

Last Three Weeks

Washington Redskins: Easily the best story this week for me was the fact that Sean Taylor was announced posthumously to the NFC Pro Bowl team. It is even a greater story when you understand that most of the votes were cast before his death, and shows just how great of a player and a player his was for his peers to vote him to represent them in Hawaii. I would love to see the NFC team play a whole series with only 10 men to pay their respects, I mean the results don't matter, and it would just be a great thing to see. Washington is still trying to get to the postseason for their fallen friend and teammate, but a loss to Minnesota would derail that dream. The Redskins have won two in a row after losing their first game after Taylor's death, and seem to have unified around this tough situation. However, the fact that Todd Collins is still their starting quarterback will make finishing this playoff run too tough to overcome.

Minnesota Vikings: It hasn't always been pretty, but Minnesota has run off five straight games and are in a position to clinch a playoff spot this week with a win combined with a loss or tie by New Orleans against Philadelphia. If Minnesota does make the playoffs, they have not made the playoffs since 2004, the Vikings will be a pure threat to any team, as their total domination of both sides of the running game is perfect for playoff conditions. The key worry for Minnesota is the fact that their quarterback can't seem to make the big play, and their secondary does give up more yards then you would want, and with the top three teams in the conference being air-based, Minnesota could find themselves in a mismatch in most match-ups they would face in the playoffs. With Jason Campbell out for the season, Minnesota will focus on Clinton Portis and the Redskins' running game and make Todd Collins beat them through the air which I just don't think he can do. Last week, the Vikings showed a lot of heart when they played their worst game in at least a month, but still found enough to pull out the victory even though Tavaris Jackson threw three interceptions and Adrian Peterson struggled in the first half. It is those types of victories that improve morale and confidence more then a blowout does, because you grow as a team because of it.

Prediction: Washington has been a great story, and as much as I would love to say that they would win this game and then go on to make the playoffs, I just don't see it happening. The lack of a passing game does not allow the Redskins to focus on the Vikings weakness and because of it will not have much offense all game. Peterson should have a solid game, and in the end Minnesota should win this game by double digits.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Washington Redskins

Minnesota Vikings

Buffalo

L 16-17

Detroit

W 42-10

Chicago

W 24-16

@ San Francisco

W 27-7

@ NY Giants

W 22-10

Chicago

W 20-13

Team	SU	ATS	O/U
Washington	7-7	5-7-2	6-8
Minnesota	8-6	7-5-2	7-7

Washington

Team

Minnesota

19.6 (20th)

Pts For

23.2 (11th)

20.2 (12th)

Pts Against

18.4 (8th)

329.5 (17th)

Total Offense

339.1 (11th)

212.8 (15th)

Passing Yards

169.5 (30th)

116.7 (11th)

Rushing Yards

169.6 (1st)

317.0 (10th)

Total Defense

334.4 (19th)

219.0 (18th)

Passing Defense

266.4 (32nd)

98.0 (9th)

Rushing Defense

67.9 (1st)

-7 (23rd)

Turnover Diff.

+7 (7th)

Washington Leaders					Minnesota Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Campbell	250	417	2700	12	Jackson	130	222	1516	6
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Portis	280	1082	3.9	8	Peterson	218	1278	5.9	12
Betts	78	285	3.7	1	Taylor	141	747	5.3	7
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Cooley	60	711	11.9	7	Wade	46	521	11.3	1
Randle El	43	636	14.8	0	Rice	31	396	12.8	4

Week 16
6-8	Denver Broncos	versus	San Diego Chargers (-10)	9-5
December 24, 2007, 8:00 PM EST – Qualcomm Stadium

Last Three Weeks

Denver Broncos: Last season, the Broncos ended up finishing 9-7 but missing the playoffs for the first time in four years, but now Denver starts a new streak as they will miss the playoffs for the second consecutive year. The Broncos have been like the Saints in a lot of ways, as they started the season with two consecutive wins before losing five of their next six, then came back with another pair of wins to get back to .500 only to watch it fall away again losing three of their last four to find themselves at 6-8, out of the playoffs and just hoping to finish the year with a .500 record.

San Diego Chargers: The final two games for the Chargers are crucial, because if they are able to win out, they will earn the three seed and avoid the New England Patriots until the Conference Championship game, if both make it there. San Diego has been playing great, winning their last four, but this is nothing new to a Charger team who won their last 10 games last season only to lose in their first playoff game to those same Patriots. After starting the season 1-3, San Diego has turned it around in a big way, winning eight of 10, starting with a 41-3 blowout over the Denver Broncos and ending with the 51-14 rout over the Detroit Lions last week. The Chargers also clinched the AFC West last week for the third time in four seasons, and even though they cannot get a bye, getting the third seed is just as important as you not only avoid the Patriots in a possible second round match-up, but even before that you would avoid a tough Jacksonville Jaguar team as well. The difference between a third and fourth seed in the AFC is almost as big as it is between the sixth and the seventh seed, it could be the difference between getting past the first round and not. LaDainian Tomlinson has returned to form during this four game winning streak, averaging 129.0 yards per game while rushing for five touchdowns and also catching one.

Prediction: This is a must win game for San Diego and they will play like it. Denver will continue their downward slide and guarantee a sub-par record, a first since 1999, the year after John Elway retired.

Vs. Spread	Straight Up

Denver Broncos

San Diego Chargers

@ Oakland

L 20-34

@ Kansas City

W 24-10

Kansas City

W 41-7

@ Tennessee

W 23-17

@ Houston

L 13-31

Detroit

W 51-14

Team	SU	ATS	O/U
Denver	6-8	4-10	10-3-1
San Diego	9-5	9-5	7-5-2

Denver

Team

San Diego

21.1 (17th)

Pts For

25.6 (6th)

26.2 (30th)

Pts Against

18.9 (9th)

353.9 (6th)

Total Offense

318.4 (20th)

229.8 (12th)

Passing Yards

191.8 (22nd)

124.1 (8th)

Rushing Yards

126.6 (7th)

336.4 (22nd)

Total Defense

327.4 (16th)

196.2 (6th)

Passing Defense

220.4 (21st)

140.2 (29th)

Rushing Defense

107.0 (16th)

0 (18th)

Turnover Diff.

+19 (1st)

Denver Leaders					San Diego Leaders
Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD	Passing	COMP	ATT	YDS	TD
Cutler	257	398	3096	18	Rivers	247	412	2828	18
Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Henry	163	680	4.2	4	Tomlinson	280	1311	4.7	14
Young	108	603	5.6	1	Turner	53	263	5.0	1
Receiving	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	Rushing	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Marshall	86	1136	13.2	6	Gates	68	898	13.2	9
Stokley	40	635	15.9	5	Jackson	35	564	16.1	3