4th and Long 1.10.08: Divisional Playoffs

Posted by Matt McEwen on 01.10.2008

Week one is in the books, and we're one week closer to the Super Bowl. Who's going to the conference finals?

Well, I went 2-2 last weekend...perfect on Saturday, and O'fer on Sunday.

Seattle handled the Redskins easily, while Jacksonville won a surprising shootout with the Steelers in the game of the weekend. Saturday was a good day of football.

Then we hit Sunday, with Eli Manning playing the most consistent game I've seen him play as he avoided the momentum killing mistake that has threatened to become his trademark, and instead outplayed Giant killer Jeff Garcia in leading the G-men to their first playoff win in a few years. They looked good, and could threaten in a wide open NFC.

Then we hit San Diego for the late game, and I feel bad for giving it the "Bowling Shoe" award last week. It may not have been an offensive showcase, but if you like your football down and dirty, this was the game for you. I picked Tennessee to win (and took some flack for it) based on their ability to stop the run and force mistakes. They did both of those things, but Philip Rivers stepped up big in the absence of an effective run game and Antonio Gates and made some big plays that eventually tired out the Titans' D.

A big day for young, unproven QB's taking a step forward.

So now we move to the divisional round.

Saturday afternoon, Mike Holmgren leads his Seahawks back to Lambeau to take on the Packers.

This one will be fun. I don't think you'll see a low scorer here, as both teams are built to score, but the Seahawks defense is very opportunistic and the 'Hawks as a whole are playing with the kind of confidence that can carry you through a playoff game in Lambeau.

I lived out west for a while a few years ago, and had to spend an entire season watching the Seahawks ( thank god I finally got Sunday Ticket, otherwise I would have been forced to endure the entire Dolphins season) and I've gotta say I hated them. They were a boring team to watch, the receivers were pretty much guaranteed to drop 2 or 3 big passes a game and that in turn led to Shaun Alexander having the big seasons that he had. Now however, with Alexander on the decline, they've found a group of receivers that are the best in the league west of Boston - sorry Cowboys fans, but 1-4 the Seahawks are better - that can make the big plays and put the game in the hands of QB Matt Hassleback. We always knew he was good, but he just might be good enough to crack that list of "elite" that he has seemed to be short of for a few years. Hopefully he keeps his mouth shut if goes to OT though.

Green Bay is a good, good team, but I see the 'Hawks D taking advantage of a mistake or two and ending Favre and company's dream season. I sure hope I'm wrong though.

I can't believe I'm going this way, but......Seahawks 28, Packers 27, but I sure hope I'm wrong.

The night game is the big one.

The Jags won the game of the week against the Steelers when Big Ben literally threw the game away, but things won't be that easy this week.

We all know how good the Pats are, and we know what their weapons are, so I won't bore you running through how they can win the game. Instead, look at how the Jags are built and why this could - nay, SHOULD - be a tight one.

Defensively, the Jags are good at getting pressure on the QB, which is obviously the big key to beating the Pats. Beyond that though, they have an aggressive, physical group of receivers who should succeed in limiting Randy Moss's effectiveness at least part of the game. They can stop the run, which Laurence Maroney is proving can be a big factor. If the D plays a perfect game, they could give the high powered Pats fits all night.

Offensively, the Jags seem almost PERFECT for the task at hand. The Pats have been susceptible to the run all year, and the one two punch of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew could tire them out and lead to some big plays. They'll need to concentrate on the run though, as the receivers will be hard pressed to come up with big plays against the aggressive Pats secondary, but if the run opens things up, they could be a factor as well.

Until someone proves them wrong though, you CAN NOT pick against the Pats.

New England 35, Jacksonville 21.

Sunday afternoon, we move to Indianapolis as the Chargers try for one of the biggest wins in franchise history. The Colts have been beat up all season, but no single injury has made them miss a beat. They've flown under the radar all season due to the Patriots' season, but the Colts have proven they can be just as dominant and might even be more well rounded.

With Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne (along with an effective cast of youngsters and hanger ons) catching Peyton Manning's passes, we know the pass offense is explosive, but Joseph Addai emerged as possibly the most dominant running back in the game this season. His numbers may not have been at the top of the league, but not too many other backs dominated large portions of games this season the way Addai did.

The Chargers on the other hand, are coming in off of a tough win, and lost their best receiver. They were able to put up enough points in his absence to beat a game Titans team, but the Colts area BIG step up in competition. Look for LT to have a better game this week, but also look for Rivers to make a mistake or two under constant pressure.

The biggest thing going against the Chargers though, might be their win earlier in the season. Do you really think Manning doesn't want revenge for his 6 (!!!!) interception game?

Colts 28, Chargers 17.

And after 3 great games, we get the most heated battle of all, as division rivals New York and Dallas meet up.

A lot of this game hinges on the health of Terrell Owens, and it doesn't look good. Even if he plays, he won't be 100%. Beyond the plays he makes - many of which could be made up by Terry Glenn - Owens means a lot to the offense. Sometimes players are referred to as the "heart" or the "brain" of a team, but in this case, Owens is the "confidence" of the Cowboys offense. When he's not on the field, you can see them get a little harried and a little worried. With the disrupting pass rush of the Giants bearing down on Romo, that could be dangerous.

Romo will make his plays, but I think the key to this game for th Cowboys is going to be Marion Barber. The man is a beast, but offensive coordinator Jason Garrett inexplicably ignores him some times. If they can establish a bruising, dominant run game early, missing Owens may not be as big a factor.

For the Giants, a lot comes down to Manning. If he plays with the calmness and consistency he showed last week, he could be in for a big win. He's not a "Superstar" QB right now, but when he plays within himself, he is more than effective enough to beat any team.

I think he does here (man...I can't believe I'm making some of these picks...)

Giants 21, Cowboys 17.