The Office 2.02.08: Super Bowl Edition

Posted by Ken Schmidt on 02.02.2008

Going to be bored with the game? Than spice things up with some prop bets!

The Super Bowl is this weekend and for those out in the betting world there really isn't an Office Pool and any type of intense betting. You won't be seeing any three game parlays and most people just bet on who is going to win or take the line. Most people that do an Office Pool turn to box pools, where the total number of points matters and not the game itself. This is pretty much putting your money up to dumb luck, which is fun, but doesn't give those of us who have football knowledge above Joe Moron who just wants to throw 50 bucks in to see what happens. Basically, it means if I was betting against my girlfriend Melissa, who as most know from reading the Office, has no football knowledge, our odds are the same if we put the same amount of money in. So what is the football fan to do? Prop bets people. The adventure that gets me through a Super Bowl I could care less about is the prop bets. I am going to give a pick to the world on the game and also supply you with more prop bet analysis than is necessary. Let's get into it.

The Office

The Game Itself

New England Patriots (-12) vs. New York Giants

Money Lines: Patriots (-420)/ Giants (+330)

All the lines I am taking will be from Sportsbook.com, I am sure they are about the same everywhere else within a couple points. Also, for those that don't understand the -420 or the +330, that is how much money you need to bet to make 100 dollars. For example: if I bet $420 dollars on the Patriots to win the game straight up than I would win $100. If I bet $100 on the Giants to win out right, than I would win $330.

As far as betting the game goes I am a little torn. My brain is telling me that the Giants are going to cover those 12 points, but I really think in my heart that the Pats will blow them out. First of all, everyone and their mothers are talking about the Giants covering, which is always my tell-tale sign to bet the other way. Also, a lot of analysts and football smart asses are trying to call a major upset. People of America, it ain't going to happen. My bet is going to be the Pats to cover those 12 by going up early and forcing Eli to win the game, which he can not do. My final score is 37-24, so that gives me the over as well, which is set at 54 points.

I am putting 5 Sports Kid Units on the Pats and 5 on the over

If you want to make a moneyline bet than there is no reason at all to make a bad bet on the Pats. If you bet $10 you only make $4.20, which is not worth it at all. I would dodge the moneyline but if you are a diehard Giants fan and really think they have a shot at it (which means you are naive) than go ahead and throw some money on them straight up. A $50 bet (if you can afford it) won't ruin your bankroll and you can turn it into $165, which isn't to shabby.

Now we have some fun with the props.

MVP of the Game

Now when making prop bets you want to bet on who you really believe will win but you need your odds to be worth it. The obvious bet for this game is Tom Brady, without a doubt. However, let's consider he is banged up, he will have one of the best pass rushes against him, and he is at 1-2. That number is RIDICULOUS for a single player in a single game to be games MVP. You would need to bet $100 to win $200 on Tom Brady for MVP and that number is NOT WORTH IT. Here are some bets I like. Laurence Maroney has quietly snuck up after a mediocre regular season and become the Pats stud in the playoffs. At 5-1 I can't help but want to make a nice little bet on him. For the last time I will explain a line (5-1 means $100 to win $500). The Pats might be looking to offset the Giants QB pressure by sending Maroney straight up the gut. However, most of the time the MVP is not the most deserving player, and even if Maroney does deserve it there is no reason those voting won't turn to a big name instead (just ask Evgeni Nabokov) in Randy Moss. Randy is at 11-2 which isn't horrible odds and he is just screaming for a break out game. Mosses odds are even better than Maroney's, which means Vegas has an inkling he might be quiet and I can't help but agree. However, he is in my top three. I also have to pick a Giant because if they win the game there is no doubt who the MVP will be, even if he sucks. Every voice of the NFL is all over Eli for basically being just competent enough to let other teams throw them the game and let the running attack beat the hell out of people. At 7-2 if you think the Giants have a shot at winning take this bet. Finally, DO NOT bet the field. There is no one in the field with any name's sake for 8-1. Vegas even covered Kevin Faulk just in case so DO NOT bet the field. This isn't golf people.

My Top 3
Maroney 5-1
Moss 11-2
Manning 7-2

2 Sports Kid Unit on Maroney 5-1
1 Sports Kid Unit on Eli Manning 7-2

Player to Score First TD

This is my FAVORITE prop bet because the odds are always in your favor and with a decent football knowledge of each teams you can make a nice value bet. Keep in mind passing TDs don't count, so Tom Brady being 20-1 is not a good bet because he needs to score it receiving or passing, which is not going to happen. My thought is that the Pats are going to get the ball and score first and if the G-Men get the ball I would like to see little Eli get nervous and throw a pick, setting the Pats up. Randy Moss is 4-1, the lowest number you can get, with Maroney next at 5-1 and Wes Welker is right behind him at 6-1. Both of these three are viable and obvious options. I am sure that the Pats will be passing early in this game, like they always do, to set up the run. That is why I am banking on a passing TD here. It couldn't hurt to throw smaller bets on both Moss and Welker to cover other bets, because I don't see the ball being run in. However, if you want a home run bet how about the field? Anyone else seeing a repeat of the Eages/Pats game where it was a defensive TD to start? Taking the field is pretty much like taking the D and it is 9-1 so I would consider. Once again if you want to take a Giant, I'd go with the running attack and either Brandon Jacobs (10-1) or Ahmad Bradshaw at (15-1), those are great value bets.

My Top 3
Moss 4-1
Jacobs 10-1
Welker 6-1
Honorable Mentions: Bradshaw 15-1 and Field 9-1

2 Sports Kid Unit on Moss 4-1
1 Sports Kid Unit on Jacobs 10-1

Highest Scoring Quarter

This is another fun one because it lasts the entire game. Here are the numbers:
1st: 3-1
2nd: 3-2
3rd: 9-4
4th: 2-1
Tie: 7-2

If you know anything about football you know the smart money goes on 2nd or 4th quarters because they can begin closer to the endzone than someone kicking off. We know the Pats like to score early, so if your thinking a blowout I'd go with 2nd quarter. If you think it is going to be close, than remember what the Pats did in close games (like against the Colts and Giants), they really turned it on late to win it and the Giants are the KINGS of the garbage TD (I feel like every game they lose they tack on 7 when the other team stops trying). I am going to go ahead and take the 2nd quarter at 2 dollars to win 3.

5 Sports Kid Units on the 2nd

Manning TD Passes

I am going with this prop because I want to feel confident about the final score I picked and if I do that than I KNOW, how many TD passes Manning will have. I am going to stick with 24 points which is 3 TDs. When I subtract one rushing TD because I like the Giants to run the ball in first before the Pats run away and the Giants go pass-pass-pass that sets me at 2 TDs (9-5) which isn't horrible odds. If you like Eli and feel something big from him you can get good odds on 4 TD passes (a sick game for Eli) at 7-1. If you bet Eli for MVP you might want to throw something on 4, because 4 TDs from him means automatic MVP and you will sweep two bets. Here is the breakdown:
0 3-1
1 5-2
2 9-5
3 4-1
4 7-1
5 25-1
6 50-1

1 Sports Kid Unit on 2 at 9-5

Burress Receiving Yards

Another bet I am going to go with is Plaxico's receiving yards, which are intervals of 10, ranging from under 10 yards to 200 or more. I am fairly certain that Plax will have the biggest game of all the Giants and I am going to play a gut feeling here at go with 121-130 for 15-1 odds. Another bet I would consider is a safer 91-100 at 7-1. I am pretty confident one of those will hit so I am taking both.

1 Sports Kid Unit on 121-130 at 15-1
1 Sports Kid Unit of 91-100 at 7-1

Brady Completions

This is going to be my big bet here because if you can nail how many completions Brady will have you will absolutely clean up. Like in roulette (if anyone knows the game) you can bet squares of numbers to hit, well I am going to reenact that by taking a handful of bets here. Brady is going to be above average but not super human, I like Maroney to be the star of this game so I am taking Brady to have 25-30 completions. One Sports Kid Unit on each is 6 Sports Kid Units with the possibility of BIG RESULTS.

1 Sports Kid Unit on:
25- 8-1
26- 8-1
27- 10-1
28- 12-1
29- 15-1
30- 18-1

(COME ON 30!!)

Time To Punt

Here is the quick and skinny run-down of my bets. Feel free to put whatever you want as 1 Sports Kid Unit but remember, bet within your means:

5 Units (even) Pats to Win -12
5 Units (even) Over 54
2 Units Maroney for MVP 5-1
1 Unit Manning for MVP 7-2
2 Units of Moss for first TD 4-1
1 Unit on Jacobs first TD 10-1
5 Units 2nd Quarter to be highest scoring 3-2
1 Unit on Eli Manning 2 Passing TDs 9-5
1 Unit Burress Receiving Yards 121-130 15-1
1 Unit Burress Receiving Yards 91-100 7-1
1 Unit Brady Completions 25 8-1
1 Unit Brady Completions 26 8-1
1 Unit Brady Completions 27 10-1
1 Unit Brady Completions 28 12-1
1 Unit Brady Completions 29 15-1
1 Unit Brady Completions 30 28-1

So for those adding on their fingers and running out of them, that is 30 Units to bet. Remember you don't have to bet them all and don't bet more than you can afford. But if you want to have some fun and make a few small bets, be my guest and take my picks because I did way to much research on these tiny insignificant bets to let them go to waste. Best of luck and above all enjoy the Super Bowl and be safe. Chcek back next week for my final results as well as The Office roundtable to breakdown the NFL season.