Behind the Numbers 02.09.08: Top 10 Unrestricted Free Agents

Posted by Chris Widner on 02.09.2008

Like any good armchair GM, Coach, Quarterback and commentator I realize that although the Super Bowl is done and over with, the season never ends.

The big news this week has been all about Shaq going to the Suns. I expect him to turn his career around in a big way. When I owned NBA Showdown 94 I had Shaq on the Suns and he was dominant as he made pretty much every 3 pointer he attempted. By the end of the season he was averaging around 60 points and 20 boards a game. I figure if the Suns will bring Kevin Johnson out of retirement they're a lock for the title. Ahh, the good ole days.

Like any good armchair GM, Coach, Quarterback and commentator I realize that although the Super Bowl is done and over with, the season never ends. Now is the time to prepare for the draft and free agency so teams can retool for another run at the Lombardi trophy next season. Last time around I covered the top 5 contenders for Super Bowl XLIII and had some feedback asking why I didn't include a couple of teams.

RJ gave his thoughts, saying the Jaguars should be on the list. While I think the Jaguars are not a one season wonder, they play in the toughest division in football. While they have the best shot of dethroning the Colts, I don't see it happening next year so they'll have to hope for a Wild Card spot. Their biggest weakness, by far, is the wide receivers. They have some tall players, which is great, but they are just not productive. They'll have to upgrade at this position in order to propel themselves to the next level. They could also stand to upgrade the defensive end position to put more pressure on the QB, but the wide receivers must be priority number 1.

Joe thinks the Packers should be a lock for the top 5 list. As he points out, they are losing pretty much nobody and they finally have a very solid running game to go along with a good defense. So why aren't they on the list? The biggest reason is in the secondary. They have veteran players at the corners with Al Harris and Charles Woodson, but they are getting up there in age. Harris was dominated by Plaxico Burress in the NFC Championship game, and although few people can stop Burress, Harris definitely showed his age that game. If they can add some depth on the corners they could easily be in my top 5 come September.

As always, I love the feedback, so keep it coming. Now let's take a look at the top 10 unrestricted free agents in the NFL. While it wasn't too hard to come up with the top 10, it was very difficult to actually rank them. So I'm sure you could come up with a convincing argument to move one guy up or down, but if you think I missed a player let me know.

Top 10 Unrestricted Free Agents
10. Kawika Mitchell - LB, New York Giants
In his first season with the Giants, Kawika Mitchell registered 76 tackles, 4 sacks, 4 pass deflections.
Mitchell is a player with a really good motor, it's always running. At 28 years old he still has many good years left in him but his improvement may be partly due to the system he is playing in. Don't take that as a knock on Mitchell, players are supposed to execute the plays that are called and he does exactly that. He is just probably better off staying in New York and I expect the Giants to make sure that he does.

9. Lance Briggs - LB, Chicago Bears
Averaged 117 tackles, 8 pass deflections, 2 forced fumbles, 1.5 int, 1.5 sacks over the last 4 seasons.
Briggs is a little undersized at 6'1, 240lbs but you wouldn't know it by the way he plays. A few extra inches would probably help him in the pass deflection category so it's just something to keep in mind for the team that signs him. I highly doubt you'll see him return to Chicago, so any team looking to bulk up the linebackers should give him a long look.

8. Terrell Suggs - DE/LB, Baltimore Ravens
Averaged 68 tackles, 8 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 5 pass deflections over the past 4 seasons.
Terrell Suggs has excellent size at 6'3" 260lbs and is a young player at only 25 years old. His numbers dropped off slightly this year, but the same could be said for pretty much all of his defensive teammates. Suggs can play at defensive end and linebacker, so he is a versatile player. In this league teams often copy each other, so I expect to see teams looking for versatile players like Suggs after what the Giants just accomplished with their defense. So when you add it all up, expect him to be a hot commodity, but also expect to see him back in Baltimore.

7. Michael Turner - RB, San Diego Chargers
At 5'10" and 237lbs, Michael Turner is a solid running back that has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over his career. He's a very good kick returner as well, although I don't see him playing that role any longer. He is not very effective at catching the ball out of the backfield, so whoever signs him should expect a speedy runner that can handle some punishment. He's only 25 years old and has not seen a lot of action, so he probably has the body of a 23 year old running back. The Chargers never seemed interested in the two back system other teams are trying, so expect him to go elsewhere. The Texans are a good young team that would be a great fit for Turner.

6. Jared Allen - DE, Kansas City Chiefs
Averaged 66 tackles, 11 sacks, 4 forced fumbles, 8 pass deflections over the past 3 seasons.
At 6'6, 270lbs, Jared Allen has ideal size for a defensive end. His numbers speak for themselves and he is only 25 years old. He has overcome his demons, so there should not be any concerns for the team that signs him. Although the Chiefs could easily resign him, I wouldn't be surprised to see him looking elsewhere. There are plenty of competitive teams that are in desperate need of a dominant defensive end. However, the Chiefs can use the franchise tag on Allen and he is their number 1 priority going into the offseason.

5. Albert Haynesworth - DT, Tennessee Titans
Averaged 41 tackles, 4 sacks, 3 pass deflections of the past 3 seasons.
At 6'6" and 330lbs, Albert Haynesworth is an absolute beast. He was my choice for Defensive Player of the Year because of the impact he has when he is on the field. Even still, the Tennessee Titans don't seem committed to re-signing the 26 year old. The Titans were a much different team when he wasn't playing. That's the biggest concern with Haynesworth, his durability. He has missed his share of games over the seasons due to injury and after stomping on Andre Gurode's head his attitude may be a concern. By all accounts he has changed since that incident, but it may still concern some teams.

4. Alan Faneca - G, Pittsburgh Steelers
After seeing the impact Steve Hutchinson had after leaving the Seahawks for the Vikings, expect Faneca to demand a good amount of money on the free market. He's got great size for an offensive lineman at 6'5" and 307lbs. His age may be a concern given that he is 31 years old, but linemen can have pretty lengthy careers. Big Ben would love to see Faneca return, but the Steelers have made it clear that they aren't willing to pay him the money he is expected to ask for.

3. Randy Moss - WR, New England Patriots
774 receptions, 12193 yards, 124 touchdowns over his 10 year career, including his 2 unproductive seasons in Oakland.
What more really needs to be said about Randy Moss? He's shown that when playing for a team that doesn't resemble an asylum he is the best receiver in the game. At 30 years old he still have a few great seasons ahead of him before his career begins winding down. Both Moss and the Patriots have made it clear they want this relationship to last more than one season, so I don't see any reason why he won't be re-signed.

2. Asante Samuel - CB, New England Patriots
Totaled 164 tackles, 58 pass deflections, 19 interceptions over the past 3 seasons.
At 5'10" and 185lbs he has good size, and he has proven himself to be an elite cornerback over the past two seasons. He's 27 years old, so he has a good 5 years left in the tank. The Patriots would certainly love to see him back, and I think they need him back, but don't expect him to be re-signed. He knows what it's like to win a Super Bowl so he is looking to get paid. Given what Nate Clements was paid by the 49ers last year, expect Samuel to have a very high price tag.

1. Marcus Trufant - CB, Seattle Seahawks
Averaged 79 tackles, 16 pass deflections, 3 interceptions over his career.
Trufant has good size at 5'11" and 197lbs and he's 27 years old. Just like Asante Samuel, Trufant has a good 5 years left in this league and is an elite cornerback. He doesn't take the big gamble going for the interception like he used to, so he is much more consistent than in the past. I've ranked him higher than Samuel because he is a better all-around player that can support the run. The Seahawks would love to see him back, but they better be willing to pay fork over some serious cash.