411's NFL Round Up 4.22.08

Posted by Emmett Wilks on 04.22.2008

Another great NFL QB says goodbye, Brian Urlacher is mad in Chicago, and understanding that there is no sure things in the Draft. Plus the final Mock Draft in this weeks NFL Round Up.

Well, it is t-minus 5 days until the 2008 NFL Draft. And as of this posting, I don't think anyone, including the Miami Dolphins, know who the top pick in the draft is going to be. This has, in all reality, been one of the most fun drafts to cover in quite some time, with lineman taking center stage in a big way. And thank goodness for the NFL dropping the time between picks from 15 minutes to 10. Seriously, for fans (or nerds) like me, this is going to knock off like 2 hours off the draft. Now, onto the Round Up.

QUICK NOTES

So let me get this straight. The Chiefs are allowing All-Pro DE Jared Allen to look for a trade so they won't have to sign him to a big deal they don't want to pay. This, after a 15 ½ sack season where Allen was named a starter for the Pro Bowl, so they can (likely) obtain a defensive line player (if Matt Ryan is gone) who has never stepped foot on an NFL field and basically pay him a similar salary. I'm sorry, that's just plain insanity.

Below I have a link to an article of Peter King from SI.com. Part of it was a quote from the late, great Bill Walsh, discussing how he felt in 1998, that the best QB in the modern NFL game was the 6-2, 210 lbs. point guard type QB. If one looks at the best QB's today; Tom Brady (6-4), Peyton Manning (6-5), Carson Palmer (6-6), and Ben Roethlisberger (6-5), I think we can see that despite being the best coach in NFL history, Walsh was not perfect on every prediction.

Seeing is that I am taking public criticisms in a case by case basis, I am going to say I fully support Steve Smith calling out undisciplined and vastly underperforming WR Dewayne Jarrett. Smith, the team's leader and play maker has faced constant double teams the last three years, with nary a second option to move coverage away from him. Jarrett, drafted in the second round to fill that role, was not even activated due to "performance" last season and has also had DUI incidents to go along with his completely lackluster start to the NFL. So, if I were Steve Smith, I would probably be doing the exact same thing.

For the Bengals sake, I hope they can deal disgruntled Chad Johnson. In this situation, I am not going to get into who's to blame, if anyone. Just make it happen. And I can't believe that they aren't having serious talks with the Eagles, who are shopping CB Lito Sheppard. It seems a trade like that would make everyone, and I mean everyone happy. Just a thought.

A number of suspended and future suspended players are hoping newly reinstated Bengals LB Odell Thurman keeps his nose clean. For Thurman will be the first reinstated player under Commissioner Roger Goodell, making him a guinea pig of sorts to see if a suspended player can rehabilitate himself.

There is almost no doubt in my mind that currently unsigned DT Albert Haynsworth will remain a Tennessee Titan. The only question is for how much. Tennessee throw the Franchise tag on Haynsworth earlier this year, and he has yet to sign the tender. My guess is he will sign with at least an assurance that they front office will work on a long term deal during this season.


Steve McNair was a great NFL QB, but he is simply not Hall of Fame worthy

AIR McNAIR IS NOT OVER THERE (IN CANTON THAT IS)

The retirement of former Oilers/Titans and current Ravens QB Steve McNair has now begun the big discussion, is the Hall of Fame in the cards. The simple answer is no, it is not. In my Hall of Fame column last week, I did not mention McNair, and I still won't. To be frank, I loved Steve McNair's game. He was my favorite QB when I was younger, before Donovan McNabb(a player with many similar attributes) took that spot Any and all entry into the Hall of Fame is incredibly difficult for all players, but some positions are more difficult than others. Quarterback is among one of those positions were you need to exhibit something beyond special, something extraordinary. As I said last week, with Brett Favre's retirement, there are only two QB's who have that today, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Selected with the third pick in the 1995 draft, McNair was a dictionary definition of how to cultivate a raw quarterback prospect. He was slowly acclimated to the starting role, playing in just 13 games his first 2 seasons. Under the tutelage of Jeff Fisher, McNair lead the Titans to Super Bowl XXXV. An MVP season in 2003 further cemented his status as one of the games elites, but it was just not enough. The big knock was the numbers for McNair. He topped the 20 TD just three times (2001-2003) and was absent in the early part of his career as he was nurtured slowly into the starting role. Injuries were another short coming to his Hall of Fame resume. McNair was fully healthy just 5 of his 13 NFL seasons, missing significant time in 3 different seasons (1999, 2004, and 2007). He was a solid winner, but not an exceptional one. Only 5 of his 13 seasons did he man a team into the playoffs. His playoff record was 5-5, which is just OK. So while I say farewell to McNair, one of the highlight players of this generation, it does come with a definite and solid belief that his performance, while strong and at times exhilarating, was well short of Hall of Fame Worthy.


JUST PAY THE MAN

If the Chicago Bears are smart, they will give linebacker Brian Urlacher the money he deserves. Urlacher is the best LB playing today. Period. I would even venture to guess that if you polled all 32 GM's in the NFL, a good 20 or so would pick Urlacher to build their defense around (Baltimore's Ed Reed, Indianapolis's Dwight Freeny and Minnesota's Kevin Williams also would deserve some recognition). The main point is Chicago dragged its feet with Lance Briggs (whom I also believed deserved a better deal) and that turned out to be a media nightmare for them. Urlacher has completely outperformed his contract, the nine year, $56.55 million he signed in 2003. What is deceptive about the contract is that is very cap friendly for the Bears, a little too cap friendly. Urlacher's contract would pay him about $3.95 million this upcoming season, placing him the 11th paid LB in the league! Marcus Washington made more money than Urlacher. No knock on Washington, but he is not in the same class as Urlacher. What I can do here is play devils advocate and somewhat see the fear with the Bears have with signing another big contract to a player, knowing they have two players with contract needs (DT Tommie Harris and WR/KR Devin Hester) coming up in a year or two. These guys are young and dynamic players, with Hester nearly ready to redefine the kick/punt returner position in the NFL. The last few years in the NFL have also seen several big time contracts awarded to guys who have passed their prime, even when it didn't seem so on paper. Philadelphia's signing of Javon Kearse in 2004 was supposed to signal the continuation of a dominate defensive unit for the Eagles. Instead, despite a solid 2004 performance, Kearse was dogged down by injury and poor play that never allowed him to recall his title of "The Freak." He was cut by the Eagles after another injury ending 2007 campaign. Across the country in Seattle, RB Shaun Alexander finalized an 8 year, $62 million contract after his monster 2005 campaign. Since then, Alexander has rushed for just over 1600 yards and 11 TD's in TWO SEASONS. I know what everyone is saying. Different positional players, different teams, and very different circumstances. But to a GM, it is not that different. It really does scare the hell out of GM's in the NFL to award big money deals to players that could screw up their salary cap for two or three seasons. With Kearse already cut in Philly and Alexander likely on his way out in Seattle, Chicago does not want to get stuck in the unenviable position of over paying anybody, even if it's the best LB in the league. But this is just me playing devils advocate. I do not believe for a millisecond that Urlacher would under perform any big contract. He is too good, too prideful, and too championship hungry to do anything less than his best. Another great point was made this week by ESPN's NFL Live host Mark Schlereth, who stated that there is an unwritten rule among all involved parties in the NFL that long term deals lasting over 6 years (in this case 9 years) are essentially 3-4 year deals that, after those first few years, the deals are to be torn up and reassessed. I believe that is a very good observation that the Bears must take into consideration.



As Ryan Leaf(left) and Peyton Manning(right) can attest, no one can predict a "CAN'T MISS" prospect

NO ONE REALLY KNOWS

I was going through the Vault section of SI.com the other day and found an article from April of 1998 by Peter King comparing Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf. Just two weeks before the draft, there was still a very vocal debate about who would go first overall in the draft. Of course with, hindsight, we all know the winners of that debate were the Manning crowd. But 10 years ago, there were frank and serious discussions about which of these two men would be better players. Though the majority of people did feel Manning was the better player at the time, there was the widely held notion of Manning being more pro ready, with Leaf having the greater upside and career potential!
What cannot be forgotten during this last week before the draft is the simple fact that no one, and I mean NO ONE, knows how these players will be in the NFL level. It is as much psychological as it is physical. Many of these men, especially the first rounders, are going to become instant millionaires and be thrown into a media circus that no one is prepared for. And if that is not complicated enough, the jump from collegiate football to professional is gigantic. The speed of the NFL game is so widely stated that it has become something of a cliché. But it could not be truer. The pure speed and physical grind of playing in the NFL will be too much for many of these players. And there is no accurate way of telling which ones will be able to do this.
Over the past 10 to 15 years, the NFL has enhanced drafting to a total science. Not just dissecting films and athletic drills, but also personality tests and highly scrutinized interviews with players.
The litany of players in just that last six or seven years who were "can't miss" players is staggering, not to mention throughout the last 25 years. The two big ones for me personally took place at the number 2 picks in the 2003 and 2004 drafts. In 2003, the Detroit Lions grabbed Michigan State WR Charles Rogers. At the time, I believed Rogers was the next Marvin Harrison and would quickly be on his way to NFL superstardom. Injuries and repeated violations of the NFL's substance abuse policy tarnished his performance and reputation in the league. By 2006, he was out of the league and attempting to make a CFL team. The next year, in 2004, the madness surrounding Iowa tackle Robert Gallery was deafening. And guess what, everyone, and I mean everyone bought into it. He looked great on film, performed transcendently at the combine, and wowed just about everyone in the interview room. Though some coaches some him a bit flaky (most notably conservative Eagles coach Andy Reid) there was nary an analyst, scout, or fan for that matter not enamored with Gallery. With the second selection in the draft that year, the Oakland Raiders selected Gallery to become the next great left tackle. The results have been less than stellar. Gallery now possess what can be generously called typical foot speed, often getting run around by speedy defenders, and average strength, as seen by his bitch slapping by Chargers DE Shawn Merriman. Now at left guard, Gallery has performed better at the less demanding position, but has, in all reality, played more like a guy you could have drafted in the 3rd round than the second overall pick.
I absolutely don't mean to pick on these guys in particular, especially Gallery. But they are the best two examples of the last 5 years of "can't miss" guys who in fact do miss, and big time in the case of Rogers. If the draft were an exact science, Gallery would not have been hailed as the next Anthony Munoz, guys like Tom Brady and (to a lesser extent) Marques Colston would have been first rounders. Let's just all of us keep this into perspective when we are cheering or jeering our teams this weekend on draft day. We won't know anything until about 3 or 4 years from now.


MOCK DRAFT 8.0

The last mock draft before the big weekend! There have been some changes all throughout. I again will refuse to speculate on potential trades until they actually happen, and leave the board as it appears right now as I write this. I will say this, there will be at least 3 QB's in the first round, with my bet that Chad Henne is going to sneak in somewhere in the 20's. But right now, with not trading, he's out. I am also going to disagree with a large number of experts and say that the number 1 pick will belong to a Long, and whether it is Jake or Chris, I am still not 100% sure.

1. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Jake Long OT, Michigan 6-7, 309 lbs.
J. Long finally reaches the promised land of the mock draft. A franchise left tackle is the second most important thing after a franchise QB. So here he will be picked, and the Dolphins take a big first step back toward credibility. Even though the defense needs more work, they have two second round picks to help deal with that. But don't be stunned if either Long is here.

2. St. Louis Rams
Chris Long DE, Virginia 6-3, 266 lbs.
Vernon Gholston is simply not the guy for this team. No shocker is Glenn Dorsey goes here, but Long will sneak into the spot with Jake gone.


3. Atlanta Falcons
Matt Ryan QB, Boston College 6-5, 221 lbs.
I know that Dorsey is here, but you don't win without a QB. Here is your potential franchise guy here. You cannot ignore that. Let's put it to you like this. Do you want Warren Sapp or Troy Aikman potential players. If you don't go with the latter, you don't know football.

4. Oakland Raiders
Darren McFadden Arkansas RB, 6-2, 212 lbs
They too will gamble away Dorsey for the dynamic ball carrier. He remains the likely Rookie of the Year.

5. Kansas City Chiefs
Glenn Dorsey LSU DT, 6-1 310 lbs.

Kansa fans will rejoice at this gift. Though Kansas has had a rough patch with down lineman (Ryan Sims anyone) Dorsey is about as sure fire a guy in the draft as anyone.

6. New York Jets
Vernon Gholtson Ohio State LB/DE, 6-4, 255
The shocking thing is, this guy still has an outside chance of taking the first overall pick.

7. New England Patriots
Derek Harvey DE Florida 6-4, 258 lbs.
I think its crazy that I am one of the very few having Harvey in the top 10. The guy is sensational player who could work very well into a DL rotation for what will be the NFL's most ready team next season.

8. Baltimore Ravens
Leodis McKelvin CB Troy, 5-11, 186 lbs
Plenty of good O-lineman here, but I don't think Ryan Clady or Brenden Albert deserve to be picked this high. If recent drafting has taught us anything, you can find greater value in 2nd and 3rd round picks for OL than corners.

9. Cincinnati Bengals
Sedrick Ellis USC DT, 6-1, 308 lbs.
Just about every Mock I put stock into has Ellis landing her for the Bengals, which would be a perfect fit for everyone involved. Ellis is a great player and a smart, classy kid, something desperately needed in Cincy.

10. New Orleans Saints.
Keith Rivers LB USC, 6-3 235 lbs
Major difference maker at USC, could be opening day starter for a host of NFL teams.

11. Buffalo Bills
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tennessee State, 6-2 180 lbs
Rodger-Cromartie has HUGE upside. Perhaps the drafts best overall athlete, he could provide a game-breaker on defense that Buffalo needs.

12. Denver Broncos
Ryan Clady OT Boise State, 6-6 317 lbs
I am going to be surprised if he breaks into the top 10, but that's not to say he won't be a great draft pick for anyone. After Jake Long, none of the O-line prospects really thrill me.

13. Carolina Panthers
Limas Sweed WR Texas, 6-4 216 lbs
They need a QB, but will they make a move to get Matt Ryan, trade down for Chad Henne, or wait till the later rounds for John David Booty. I don't know, but if they stay here, they get the best receiver on the board.
14. Chicago Bears
Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois, 5-11 225 lbs

I really think he could be gone sooner than this spot, with somebody making a move to get him sooner, possibly Arizona jumping up. After McFadden, the drafts best RB.

15. Detroit Lions
Mike Jenkins CB South Florida, 6-0 200lbs.
Here was the team that went from very hot, to very cold, very quickly. Much of that was due to the pass defense. Jenkins could be a spark in the secondary the Lions desperately need.

16. Arizona Cardinals
Phillip Merling DE Clemson, 6-4, 275 lbs.
Can't really see him falling this far, but if he does, a gift for the Cardinals for letting Calvin Pace get away. Jonathan Stewart would certainly be the other choice here.

17. Minnesota Vikings
Mario Manningham WR Michigan, 6-0 190 lbs
A nice addition to an offense needed to help is burgeoning QB Tarvis Jackson.


18. Houston Texans
Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon, 5-11 235 lbs
Running backs are the best shot of adrenaline a team can get with rookies, and Stewart could provide that with a team needing a breakout season

19. Philadelphia Eagles
Branden Albert G Virginia, 6-6 309 lbs.
His meteoric rise to the top 10 is not for real, and he will be available for the Eagles here.

20.Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Joe Flacco QB Deleware, 6-6 232 lbs.
Yes, one of the few guys who has sat still for this long. Still a chance someone, possibly Baltimore trades down to the teens and gets him, but until a trade is made, so here he stays.

21.Washington Redskins
Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma, 6-4 200 lbs
Pro Day stupidity may have cost him money, but it also may be a huge boost to for him personally, going to a city where he won't be pressured to perform immediately while being surround by a cadre of talented (if under performing) teammates.

22.Dallas Cowboys
DeSean Jackson WR California, 6-0 170 lbs
A new toy for Tony Romo to play with. Dallas has all the pieces now, Jackson could be a spark the feather that tips the scale.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Aqib Talib CB Kansas, 6-2 197 lbs
You can never be too good at corner. Though many teams will be scared away of his marijuana possessions, especially in the "PacMan era," Talib is still a first round talent that has fallen, not plummeted.

24 Tennessee Titans
Devin Thomas WR Michigan St. 6-2 215 lbs.
One of the drafts most interesting prospects, Thomas has moved up into Top 15 in some mock drafts. He remains my 3rd WR, but Vince Young won't be complaining.

25. Seattle Seahawks
Jeff Otah OL Pittsburg, 6-6 340 lbs.
You can never be too strong at the O-line. Albert is a beast of a tackle and could start at the RT spot and reenergize an O-line still reeling from the loss of Steve Hutchinson.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jerod Mayo, LB Tennessee, 6-2 225 lbs
A great addition to what is in reality a team that is ready to win now, Mayo could be forceful presence in the next few seasons, but for now, will be a great rotational guy for a very good ball club.

27. San Diego Charger
Kentwan Balmer DT North Carolina, 6-5 310 lbs.
The Giants proved not so subtly that you can never have enough down lineman in your rotation. Balmer would be a solid nose guard player for a team who already has all the pieces they need.

28. Dallas Cowboys
Dan Connor LB Penn State, 6-2 195
Dallas needs a boost at the LB position, and Connor is the best player here. He will likely need adjusting to NFL game, but relentless motor will make immediate impact on special teams if nothing else.

29. San Francisco From Indianapolis
Calais Campbell DE Miami, 6-7 290 lbs.
Campbell would be well suited in a 3-4 scheme. Offense is the most major concern for San Fran, but it never Campbell could be an enticing prospect for Mike Nolan.

30. Green Bay Packer
Fred Davis TE USC, 6-4 245 lbs
Davis is still my top TE, but Dustin Keller isn't far behind. Both viable options here with not tackles worth the pick at this spot.

31. New England Patriots
PICK FORFEITED

32. New York Giants
Kenny Phillips S Miami, 6-0 201 lbs.
A great addition for the Champs. Phillips is a leader and great hitter. Not in the same class as Miami alums Ed Reed or Sean Taylor but a solid ball player.

Until next week, stay safe out there. Leave a comment below and shoot me an e-mail with any questions/criticisms. Peace.