Pelletier's Perspective 08.18.08: The NFL's Wests

Posted by Justin Pelletier on 08.18.2008

The last two weeks of the Perspective has brought you broad overviews of both the AFC and NFC. This week 411's Justin Pelletier brings you the first of a four-part series which takes a division-by-division look at the NFL. Join Justin as he looks at both the AFC and NFC West in today's Pelletier's Perspective.

The Perspective's recent "overviews" of the NFC and AFC have created a bit of controversy amongst our loyal readers. The claim is that the Perspective didn't delve deeply enough into each team and upon further review, they were right.

Readers of the Perspective deserve better than that and we are nothing if not fan friendly. So today marks the beginning of the Perspective's week long look at the 2008 NFL season. We will be producing a daily column highlighting two divisions (one NFC and one AFC). Today we feature the Wests, while tomorrow we focus on the Norths.

The Perspective will look at each teams' strengths and weaknesses, give a prediction of its record and something a little extra. So join us today as we look at two of the weakest divisions in the league.


NFC West

If it weren't for the fact that every division winner must make the playoffs, I'm not sure an NFC West team would make the tournament. A division that seemed to be on the rise only a few years ago, is now on the decline. Top draft picks haven't panned out and former MVPs declined rapidly. Somebody has to win the division, however. Here's how it will shake down.

Seattle Seahawks:
LAA (Life after Alexander) has begun in Seattle and that means that all the pressure is on Matt Hasselbeck. Last year it looked like the Seahawks had pass catchers to burn but now Darrell Jackson is out of town and Deion Branch seems to have turned from savior to afterthought. After a career as a backup, Bobby Engram seems to have become the number one option, which is scary.

Julius Jones has been brought in to replace, former MVP, Shaun Alexander. Even though Alexander had lost a step, Jones will still be hard pressed to replace the former Madden Cover Boy. He split time in Dallas for a reason and Seattle would be wise to consider the same thing.

It will be the defense that is Seattle's ticket to the postseason. Lofa Tatupu leads a squad which finished near the top of the league in takeaways in '07. The secondary, led by Marcus Trufant and Kelly Jennings, will continue to ball hawk while Patrick Kearney will put constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

If Seattle hopes to make any noise in the NFC in '08 its defense must compensate for an offense that is poised to fall back to the pack.

2008 Record: 9-7

Fantasy Football has invaded the very fabric of sports fans. ESPN runs two-hour specials. There are dozens of magazines on newsstands devoted to the game and you can find a league on almost any sporting web site. So what I've set out to do is give you a glimpse at the fantasy impact of two players from each team. One player is sure to dominate (the "Fantasy Phelps") and the other will never live up to all the buzz surrounding him (the "Fantasy Favre").

Fantasy Phelps: Matt Hasselbeck – Hasselbeck had a career year in 2007 and the addition of tight end John Carlson and sure handed backfield mate, Julius Jones, will only allow him at add to those numbers.
Fantasy Favre: Julius Jones – Despite being a safety valve for Hasselbeck, Jones will find the same struggles in the Great Northwest as he did in the Lone Star State. Don't be surprised if, just like Dallas, Seattle find a goal line replacement for Jones.

Arizona Cardinals:
Matt Leinart has failed, thus far, to live up to his billing and draft position (number 10). Even though is 2007 season was cut to only five games due to injury, he wasn't exactly amazing anyone with his numbers to that point (53.6 rating, four picks and only two scores). The fact that Kurt Warner is a serious option to start the season during a year when Leinart should be poised for a breakout speaks volumes.

At 30, Edgerrin James has clearly lost a step. His 324 was one off the league lead and will take a toll in '08. If he falters this year, his backups (J.J. Arrington and Tim Hightower) leave a little to be desired.

Anquin Bolden and Larry Fitzgerald are studs but receiver is the most dependent position in football. If Leinart continues to struggle, or the line is shaky, or the running game blows the receivers suffer. Add to that the fact that Bolden is unhappy and you have the possibility for trouble.

Finally, while its defense isn't bad, it isn't great either. The Cards were 17th in total defense, ninth against the run and 28th against the pass! That's not exactly a defense that will carry you to the post season.

2008 Record: 7-9

Fantasy Phelps: Larry Fitzgerald – Fitzgerald is a top five receiver and it doesn't matter who's throwing him the pigskin. He did it last year, with a Leinhart/Warner split, and he'll do it again.
Fantasy Favre: Edgerrin James – We could have also gone with Leinart here, but we've got a sneaking suspicion about James. He'll be one of your low-end options in regards to a starter. Consider Thomas Jones or Laurence Maroney before you pick Edge.

St. Louis Rams:
On paper, a team that boasts Steven Jackson, Mark Bulger and Torry Holt seems like it could do some damage. Upon further inspection, an offense that looks like a strength could be a weakness.

The most obvious cause for concern is the possibility of a prolonged Jackson hold-out. The man is a freak and the Rams should pay him as such. He had over 1,000 yards and six scores, in only 12 games in '07. St. Louis is a bad team with Jackson. They'd be awful without him.

Torry Holt will continue to do what he does; namely, produce as one of the top-10 receivers in the game. What is concerning is Bulger who, even before his injury in 2007 saw his completion percentage, QB rating ad yards per attempt drop for the second consecutive season.

If the offense struggles, St. Louis will be in a lot of trouble because its defense allowed a, league high, 27.4 points per game in 2007 and managed little help in the off season.

A suspect Bulger, angry Jackson and piss-poor defense spells trouble in '08.

2008 Record: 6-10

Fantasy Phelps: Torry Holt – With Bulger and Jackson questions, Holt is the most solid fantasy producer in St. Louie.
Fantasy Favre: Steven Jackson – When on the field, Jackson is a top-5 back but he's been talking about a hold-out that could last half the regular season. You can't afford a number-one back who only plays in eight contests.

San Francisco 49ers:
J.T. O'Sullivan. That's all you need to know when it comes to the 2008 San Francisco 49ers. Alex Smith has failed so miserably that the 9ers have turned to J.T. O'freckin'Sullivan.

Mike Martz has been brought in to help restore an offense that was last in the league in '07 but nothing has been to bolster a defense that was also last.

Martz will make O'Sullivan a half decent starter but that's not good enough. Frank Gore should be the primary weapon but Martz's track record with running the ball is well documented. He's kind of like the Vince Russo of NFL coaches.

It will be another long season by the bay.

2008 Record: 3-13

Fantasy Phelps: Vernon Davis – The SF quarterback situation is a mess and a young, athletic, sure handed tight end is the best friend a crappy quarterback can have.
Fantasy Favre: Frank Gore – Just like Jackson, Gore is a stud, in the right situation. Mike Martz as offensive coordinator is never the right situation for a running back. He'll be a top-10 back, but not the top-fiver he could be.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers:
San Diego has all the tools to…should I say… "stay classy". The Chargers boast the top running back in the league, the top tight end (despite the injury concern and Jason Witten's emergence) and a killer defense.

The biggest concern for SD (other than Norv Turner blowing it) should be that LaDainian Tomlinson's injury lingers. The departure of Michael Turner to Atlanta leaves a big hole behind LT and the Chargers are one injury away from a disaster.

Chris Chambers enters his first full-season as a Philip Rivers target and he should give the young QB a lot of help. Assuming LT stays healthy, however, Rivers is the team's biggest question mark. Many have been expecting Rivers to break out for a couple of years and he's yet to do so.

If he can improve on his 60.2 completion percentage and Shawne Merriman can continue to lead the hellacious defense than it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Chargers representing the AFC in Super Bowl XLIII.

2008 Record: 12-4
Fantasy Phelps: LaDainian Tomlinson – Does anything really need to be said? LT's the best fantasy producer in the league and there's no reason to believe that will stop this season.
Fantasy Favre: Philip Rivers – It seems like we've been waiting for Rivers to break out forever. He has some of the best tools in the league and it still hasn't happened. I don't see how this season will be any different.

Denver Broncos:
Denver is about as perfect an example of a .500 team as you can get. It's number one receiver (Brandon Marshall) is about the 16th best in the league and its defense is about middle of the pack as well.

Selvin Young, probably, isn't a top tier back but the Bronco system will catapult him there.

As is the case with so many teams, quarterback is the position that will make or break Denver. Jay Cutler has proven himself to be a gutty leader, but the questions remains as to whether he's a top of the line signal caller.

The Perspective doesn't foresee Cutler becoming one of the leagues elite but playing in the AFC West will allow Denver to hover around the beak even mark.

2008 Record: 7-9

Fantasy Phelps: Selvin Young – You can pencil Young in for 1,000 yards right now. That's what Denver running backs do.
Fantasy Favre: Jay Cutler – A lot of people are high on Cutler, not I. Marshall has turned into a legit number one receiver but I'm not sold that Cutler will be able to utilize him.

Oakland Raiders:
Al Davis has had a lot of success with young coaches (see: Madden, John and Gruden, Jon). We at the Perspective weren't so sure that Lane Kiffin was in that same mold. That was until Kiffin refused to quit when that crypt keeper Davis demanded. Now we believe in the kid.

Speaking of believing in a kid, Raider fans (like myself) better believe in a couple of kids if we have any hope for the future. JaMarcus Russell showed signs of life when he came on late in the season and Darren McFadden has already been anointed as the next Adrian Peterson.

Both Russell and McFadden will have to live up to their advanced billing, if the Raiders have any chance of improving on last season disaster. The primary reason for that is that its defense, which was a huge strength in the past, has taken a huge step back. The addition of DeAngelo Hall will improve a pretty good secondary but the retirement of Warren Sapp will leave a huge hole in the middle of the defensive line.

Javon Walker's messy stabbing issue makes the huge contract they threw at him look even worse. Russell will need tight end Zach Miller and Ronald Curry to step up if he hopes to makes the move we Raider fans are hoping for.

2008 Record: 5-11

Fantasy Phelps: Darren McFadden – Run DMC can do it all and Kiffin will be sure to let him prove it. He'll be starting before midseason and have his sights set on offensive Rookie of the Year.
Fantasy Favre: Justin Fargas – The emergence of McFadden means Fargas will be a non-factor by week five.

Kansas City Chiefs:
Kansas City may have finally found its number one pass catcher, in the form or Dwayne Bowe. But after many years of waiting for somebody who can catch the ball, KC now needs someone to fling the rock.

Brodie Croyle is not that guy. The Chiefs would be better off with Damon Huard but the youth movement is in full force. To make matters worse, KC lost the one thing it did have, a good number two receiver when Eddie Kennison left town.

The quarterback situation leaves all the pressure on Larry Johnson, and not even Jim Brown could overcome these odds. LJ has watches his production plummet over the last three years and we can look for that trend to continue.

KC can't even rely on its defense as it lost it's best player (defensive end Jared Allen in a trade to Minnesota).

All-in-all it looks to be a long year for KC.

2008 Record: 5-11

Fantasy Phelps: Tony Gonzalez – QB mess or not, Gonzalez always proves to be one of the best tight ends in football.
Fantasy Favre: Larry Johnson – Brodie Croyle is not a legitimate NFL starting quarterback and it will be LJ who suffers. Defenses stuffed the line last year and will do the same again. It wasn't too long ago that Johnson was considered the top fantasy producer. Now he's not even a top-10 back.

That's it for today gang. I hope you all approved. Join us tomorrow as we take a look at the AFC and NFC South.