The House of Crouse 08.17.08
Posted by Mark Crouse on 08.17.2008
This week the House focuses on running backs. Predictions, rankings, and opinions, oh my!
Welcome to another sweltering edition of The House of Crouse. The summer doldrums have lifted at least temporarily as the Beijing Olympics began last weekend. This week, I'll comment on some general news and notes, and then take the rest of the column to break down the running back position in fantasy football. Let's take a look at what's hot in the world of sports.
-I swear to the good Lord above, if I hear anything else about Brett Favre until Week 1 I'll puke. Favre was traded to the Jets last week for a conditional draft pick. The good news is that the uncertainty of Favre's "unretirement" is resolved. The bad news is that he was traded to the media capital of the world, which has nothing better to do but obsess over him since the Yankees and Mets aren't filling the sports pages. Since everyone else is giving their opinion on how good the Jets will be, I guess I will too. Thanks to a very light schedule, the Jets will go 10-6, finish a year behind New England and get beat in the Wild Card round of the AFC playoffs as a team that isn't really as good as their record will indicate. Congrats, New York. Kellen Clemens is the new Aaron Rodgers, and your franchise is Favre's newest hostage. Get ready for the controversy.
Being a 29-year-old American male, I grew up at the tail end of the period when the Olympics mattered. I spend more time than most watching the coverage, mainly because I look forward to seeing some of the sports we don't get to see anywhere else. Who doesn't like a little badminton once every four years?
-In Beijing, global superstars Kobe Bryant and LeBron James have commented that they would consider offers from teams outside the U.S. when their respective contracts expire. A figure of $50 million per year has been tossed around, and I don't doubt teams like Olympiakos in Greece, who just signed Hawks forward Josh Childress to a three year contract at about $10 million per year would pursue superstars at higher rates than NBA teams could afford. Anyone who thinks the NBA is fixed, or that David Stern can do anything his mind desires to benefit his league will have their conspiracy theories put to the test when these players are offered mountains of cash to go overseas. Obviously, the NBA can't let anyone of higher stature than Childress defect, since the only appeal left for the league is that their fans are watching the best basketball in the world. Losing James or Bryant could spell the beginning of the end of the NBA, and this story isn't just panic-ridden speculation.
If you are a fantasy football addict like myself, you know that running back is the most crucial position on your squad, and therefore is the most important position to focus on when drafting. This is less and less the case, with Tom Brady and Randy Moss putting up record-setting numbers through the air in '07, but the franchise running back is still the most important part of a good fantasy roster. Here is the House of Crouse running back preview, complete with predictions like I made with the quarterbacks.
Movin' on Up-These guys will finish ranked above where they are ranked by all of those pesky magazines and web-sites that claim to be "experts." Taking players that overachieve is the key to a winning season, so keep the following backs in mind if you have a tough decision between multiple players who look the same to choose from.
-Marshawn Lynch-BUF-I like Lynch to become an elite option in '08 for a couple of reasons. He is the undisputed top offensive player on his team, he will get every goal line carry, and his team will have to play ball-control to win with second-year signal-caller Trent Edwards. He's young, talented, and can catch the ball out of the backfield. Expect Lynch to improve over a stellar rookie campaign that was overshadowed by Adrian Peterson. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if he finishes in the top five backs this season. 1350 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 12 total touchdowns.
-Thomas Jones-NYJ-Jones was a bust in '07, with only one score while playing in all 16 games. Jones should benefit from Favre's arrival in New York, since defenses have to account for a quarterback that can throw downfield farther than ten yards. Taking Jones as your third back could net you great profits, especially since he's being taken in the final third of starting backs. 1200 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 8 total touchdowns.
-Julius Jones-SEA-Dallas lost faith in Thomas' brother and let Marion Barber take the starting gig in '07, but Jones is young enough and talented enough to be a third back for your squad. Ranked by almost everyone as a bottom-five starter in the league, he'll beat out Maurice Morris for the majority of carries and put in a solid season. He won't blow up, but he's a good flex option and depth guy, especially where you should be able to draft him. 1000 rushing yards, 200 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns.
-Maurice Jones-Drew-JAX-Fred Taylor has to get hurt at some point, and when he does, MJD will score points in bunches. The Jags will still be a run-first team, and the former fantasy sensation should contribute running and catching the ball, and seems to have a nose for the end-zone. Take him a couple of spots higher than similar backs based on the upside potential if Taylor suffers an injury at some point. I also have seen Reggie Bush drafted within five backs of MJD, and I don't like the former Heisman winner nearly as much. Remember, we've seen Bush take a crack at being a full-timer, and it wasn't impressive. 900 rushing yards, 450 receiving yards, 11 total touchdowns.
Set for a fall-While finding that player who will overachieve can make your fantasy season, selecting a back who disappoints when you could have taken another option can break you. These backs are a bit sketchy for whatever reason, and I don't expect them to live up to their respective billings.
-Jamal Lewis-CLE-Maybe it's because I'm a Raven supporter, but I don't buy into Lewis repeating his '07 numbers. He is 28, but has had the workload and injuries of a 30 year-old, the marker for most backs' downturns. He'll be a solid starter for the Browns, and a decent #2 for your team, but he won't match last year's numbers. 1100 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, 7 total touchdowns.
-Frank Gore-SF-I've seen him drafted as high as fifth, and I can't see it. I stated most of these stats in my mock draft, but I'll rehash them for effect: he's never scored double-digit touchdowns, has been injured multiple times, plays in an offense that doesn't exactly focus on a power back, and has one really good fantasy season. Doesn't sound like a top pick to me. I won't have Gore on any of my teams because I'll never draft him as high as he's going, and I'm fine with that. 1200 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 10 touchdowns.
-Laurence Maroney-NE-Let's not pull punches, Maroney is now a perennial tease, showing flashes of total brilliance like in his '07 AFC playoffs, when he rushed for 100 yards and a score in each game. This is, of course, after he spent most of the regular season in injury limbo with a shoulder problem. New England also has a notable propensity for finding wacky ways for their team to score from inside the five, with multiple irrelevant tight ends and Mike Vrabel tallying scores to fantasy owners' dismay. I'll let someone else hope he lives up to the hype. 900 rushing yards, 250 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns.
-Brandon Jacobs-NYG-Most observers are aware that the Giants have admitted to adapting to a running back by committee approach this season utilizing Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward. Jacobs will get the goal line carries, which makes him the most valuable of the three, but temper your expectations if he is truly in a platoon. 850 rushing yards, 100 receiving yards, 8 touchdowns.
Here are the complete rankings for your top 50 backs (predictions are for top 30, since the rest of the backs' productivity is based on opportunity):
