Pelletier's Perspective 08.19.08: The NFL Souths

Posted by Justin Pelletier on 08.19.2008

One down and three to go. Yesterday 411's Justin Pelletier examined both the AFC and NFC West. Today Justin looks at the Souths in the latest edition of Pelletier's Perspective.

So I take the que from my readers and give a legitimate, in depth, analysis of two of the NFL's divisions (here) and this is what I get for my efforts.

darrel jackson left two years ago, he was on SF last season.

you copied and pasted half of this stuff, and half of the crap you say is utterly rediculous.

"Jason witten's emergence?" as what the #2 TE in his division until shockey left?

You also are already forseeing Darren McFadden as an animal? You probaley thought reggie bush was NO's savior didnt you?

And how the hell is edgerrin james a fantasy favre (you'll get ripped for this title in a moment) have you heard ANYONE with half a brain say "im gonna draft edgerrin james"? And leinart was a second year pro splitting with kurt warner, how well did you expect him to do?

and what the hell is a fantasy favre? brett favre hasnt lived up to expectations?

HES BRETT FUCKING FAVRE!!!!!!!

Some people would pay more money for a bucket of his shit and toenail clippings than you probaley do for your car.

Posted By: floyd (Guest) on August 18, 2008 at 11:46 AM

"A bucket of shit and toenail clippings…" It seems to me like Floyd has an odd fetish.

Man, I can't catch a break. I wonder if John Clayton takes this much abuse. Enough of that, on with the show.


NCF South


New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and now, Jeremy Shockey, the New Orleans offense is STACKED. It isn't the offense that is the concern, though. It's the defense that was far from "saintly" in 2007. The good news is that the defense can't get much worse.

The addition of Jonathan Vilma gives them a Pro Bowl linebacker who can cover ground and make up for the mistakes of his less talented teammates. His addition alone will help to reinforce a squad which gave up over 360 yards per game last season.

The Saints will still need to win shootouts if they hope to make a playoff run, and their offense weapons will give them every opportunity to do so.

Bush enters his third season, a year traditionally marked for its potential of breakout, ready to move into the stratosphere of elite football players (maybe not running backs but all-around football players).

Colston continues to grow into one of the finest receivers in the league and the addition of Shockey gives NO talent at every skill position.

Brees is a sure thing but it's the defense that will determine New Orleans fait. If it can't turn its horrendous 2007 around, the Saints will be on the outside of the playoffs looking in.

2008 Record: 11-5

Fantasy Football has invaded the very fabric of sports fans. ESPN runs two-hour specials. There are dozens of magazines on newsstands devoted to the game and you can find a league on almost any sporting web site. So what I've set out to do is give you a glimpse at the fantasy impact of two players from each team. One player is sure to dominate (the "Fantasy Phelps") and the other will never live up to all the buzz surrounding him (the "Fantasy Favre").

Fantasy Phelps: Drew Brees – Brees is a top-five fantasy quarterback (an argument can be made that he's a top-three) and the addition of Jeremy Shockey (not to mention the maturation of Reggie Bush and return of Deuce McAllister) will only serve to bolster his stats.
Fantasy Favre: Deuce McAllister – Entering his third season, Reggie Bush is ready to explode. Couple that with his injury from a year ago and McAllister is better left undrafted.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Despite age, Tampa's defense continues to be strong. Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber lead the veteran group, which also includes Chris Hovan, Kevin Carter, Cato June and Philip Buchanan. The key to the defense is, second year defensive end, Gaines Adams. If Adams can replace the pass rush that used to be provided by Simeon Rice, than the defense is in good shape. If he fails to do so, the defense could be exposed as the aging unit it has become.

Offensively, the Bucs failure to land Brett Favre is the best thing that could have happened to them. Jeff Garcia is simply a winner, plus he knows the system inside and out. The return of Cadillac Williams will help but should be met with caution, as backs returning from leg injuries typically take two years to get back into form.

A return trip to the playoffs is possible but not guaranteed and will rely heavily on the motivational abilities of Garcia and Jon Gruden.

2008 Record: 9-7

Fantasy Phelps: The Tampa Defense – Defensive coordinator, Monte Kiffin has long been known as one of the top d-coordinators in the league and his "Tampa 2" still has another good year left.
Fantasy Favre: Tampa Running Backs – Don't be fooled by Earnest Graham's 10 scores last year. Cadillac Williams's return means the most dreaded word in fantasy sports….PLATOON! Leave the time share for somebody else.

Carolina Panthers: With all do respect to loyal Perspective reader John, the Panthers are a team in transition. Jake Delhomme is coming off Tommy John surgery, DeAngleo Williams has failed to impress in his career, Jonathan Stewart is a rookie and Steve Smith is punching out teammates.

If Delhomme responds well from surgery, Stewart makes an impact and Smith returns with a vengeance from suspension, the Panthers are in great shape. That's a lot of ifs though. The Perspective doesn't see how all that can happen.

The defense has fallen from grace as well, with only Julius Peppers remaining as a true impact player.

Out of division road contest at Minnesota, the Giants and, the season opener at San Diego will, most likely, all be loses. Otherwise the schedule seems favorable, with Oakland, Detroit, Arizona, Kansas City, Chicago and two match ups with Atlanta all on the table.

If Carolina hopes to take advantage of its easy road, it will need all of its "ifs" to fall into place. A tough task, to be sure.

2008 Record: 7-9

Fantasy Phelps: Steve Smith – Even with two games on the pine for brawling, Smith will still be a solid producer. If you can steal him late, due to his troubles, consider yourself lucky.
Fantasy Favre: Jake Delhomme – Tommy John surgery is for real. Delhomme used to be a solid backup quarterback, for fantasy purposes, but surgery scares the hell out of me.

Atlanta Falcons: The addition of Michael Turner and Matt Ryan will help a team that couldn't get much worse but it won't be nearly enough to make Atlanta a contender.

It looks as though Chris Redman will start the season under center but that won't last long. You don't pay Ryan what they are paying him to have him hold a clip board.

The defense gave up the third most in the league in '07 (364.6 ypg) and the front office did very little to address that concern.

The loss of Alge Crumpler (to Tennessee) means that Roddy White will be the primary offensive weapon. His development, and Turner's new found role as a starter, will be the only two notable occurrences in an otherwise forgettable season.

2008 Record: 4-12

Fantasy Phelps: Roddy White – His 1,200-yard, six touchdown 2007 season has moved White into the upper echelon of NFL wide receivers. Unless Michael Turner turns out to be golden, White will be the only real weapon on a sorry offense.
Fantasy Favre: Matt Ryan – If you listen to only one piece of advice from the Perspective it should be the following. Leave Matt Ryan alone. Not only do rookie quarterbacks generally struggle, rookie quarterbacks on this time will struggle doubly.


AFC South


Indianapolis Colts: Weapons at every position and a winning pedigree spell success in Indy.

After being overshadowed by Tom Brady (and his little brother) last year, Peyton Manning will have something to prove in '08. The return of his long time partner, Marvin Harrison, from injury and the emergence of Joseph Addai and Anthony Gonzalez give his already torrid offense even more help.

Reggie Wanye has become one of the premier pass catchers in all the land and 2008 is the season everyone takes notice.

Bob Sanders and Dwight Freeny are the best pair of defensive players in football and playing a full season together for the first time in years will bolster a defense that held opponents to 16.4 ppg a season ago.

All that and I didn't even mention Dallas Clark, who led all tight ends with 11 touchdowns.

2008 Record: 12-4

Fantasy Phelps: Anthony Gonzalez - Yes, Manning, Addai, Clark and Wayne are top-five players that their positions but you don't need me to tell you they are good. Gonzalez came on with 576 yards last year and should build on that in his second season. If you can get him late in a draft, don't hesitate.
Fantasy Favre: Marvin Harrison – The last time we saw Harrison he was a fantasy stud. That is no longer the case. Age and competition (Gonzalez) have caught up with him. He'll still produce as a solid backup fantasy option but don't expect big things.

Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags would win three of the four divisions in the NFC, but in the AFC that is not the case.

Receiver remains a concern (Matt Jones drug habit not withstanding). The offense will make up for that lack of receiver with its talented running attack.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor are probably the best combination of backs in football and will serve to bail out the sub par receivers.

The defense is also a force to be reckoned with and if it can hold opponents to under 20 ppg, like it did last year (19), and David Garrard can remain mistake free (only three picks in '07), Jacksonville will make the playoffs.

2008 Record: 10-6

Fantasy Phelps: Maurice Jones-Drew – Only eight backs had more scores than Jones-Drew in '07 and he had 37 less carries than the man above him with the next fewest (Marion Barber, 204 carries). He splits time with Taylor but he'll be the most productive time share in the league.
Fantasy Favre: Fred Taylor – He's still a viable starter but his draft position, in conjunction with his time share with Jones-Drew means there are better options out there.

Tennessee Titans: Vince Young is the new Michael Vick (without the cruelty to animals, of course). What I mean is that he's not your typical quarterback and he doesn't put up big numbers but he wins.

Even though he's a winner, his 12 touchdowns to 17 INTs scare me. He will get a bit of help, in the form of Vick's old target, Alge Crumpler. The big tight end will give Young a middle of the field target that he's never had before.

LenDale White has proven his doubters wrong by producing when he's on the field. He was a work horse last year and his production takes a lot of pressure off Young.

On the defensive side of the ball, a healthy Albert Haynsworth changes that team. He's one of the best defensive players in the league and the defense is totally different when he's in there.

What the 2008 season comes down to, however, is the fact that Young is too inconsistent and has too few weapons for Tennessee to make a return trip to the postseason.

2008 Record:7-9

Fantasy Phelps: LenDale White – Fat or not, White is a horse. His 1,110 yards and seven scores came as a surprise. Expect more from his this year.
Fantasy Favre: Vince Young – He's a winner and I wouldn't mind having him on my (real) team. But when it comes to fantasy football, VY is better left alone.


Houston Texans: Houston was surprise 8-8 last season as number one overall pick, Mario Williams, began to fulfill his potential.

The combination of Matt Schawb to Andre Johnson should continue to improve as Schawb gets another year as a starter under his belt and Johnson returns from injury.

Before going down to injury, Johnson was giving a career year (60 receptions, 851 yards and eight scores through nine games) and there is reason to believe that will continue.

The issue for the Texans is at running back, where Ahman Green has seen better days and Chris Brown is exactly what you want…in a backup.

West Virginia product, Steve Slaton may be the home run threat they are looking for but he, also may be LeBrandon Toefield.

Houston fans will hope that their team can improve on the progress they've made but a defense that ranks in the lower third of the league will derail an offense that should put up its fair share of points.

2008 Record: 7-9

Fantasy Phelps: Andre Johnson – Johnson had what would be consider a great season for many players, through nine games! He has a great rapport with Schwab and may finish the season as the second best receiver in the NFL.
Fantasy Favre: Ahman Green – He'll begin the season as the feature back but Chris Brown will be on his heels and Steve Slaton cold emerge as the top option, as well.

That's all I got for the Souths. Join us tomorrow when The Perspective examines the Norths. Until then enjoy you Peyton Manning commercials.