Pelletier's Perspective 08.20.08: NFC & AFC North

Posted by Justin Pelletier on 08.20.2008

Does Brett Favre's move to the AFC spell success for Minnesota and doom for Green Bay? Can Baltimore possibly be as bad as people are speculating? Answers to those questions and more can be found in today's edition of Pelletier's Perspective.

411's expert fantasy football draft is a mere four hours away. By the time you read this, it will have concluded, which is good news because I really shouldn't be handing out Fantasy Phelps and Fantasy Favres to my opponents.

Monday we here at the Perspective looked at the AFCs and NFCs Western division (which can be found here). Yesterday we looked at both Souths (clickly). Today we venture to the great North to see if Favre's move to the AFC spells success for Minnesota and doom for Green Bay and if Baltimore can possibly be as bad as people are speculating.


NFC North


Minnesota Vikings: We at the Perspective aren't as in love with the Viks as many others. We weren't even convinced that they'd be a Super Bowl contender with Brett Favre. Without him, Minnesota is the best team in a bad division.

Adrian Peterson is proven himself to be the real deal. He's a bruising runner, with break away speed, a true game changer. His excellent offensive line makes him all the more dangerous.

All eyes will be on Peterson, which is good news for Tarvaris Jackson. If Jackson can minimize his mistakes and allow Peterson to dominate, the offense will be good enough.

It will be good enough because the Minnesota defense is stout (at least the run defense). As was noted by an astute Perspective reader in our brief NFC overview, the Minnesota run defense was helped by the fact that its pass defense could be lit up by a good Pop Warner squad.

The Vikings managed to have a pretty good season with an awful pass defense. So based on the fact that the pass defense couldn't get any worse, the Vikings will improve its record in 2008 and will win the NFC North.

2008 Record: 10-6

Fantasy Football has invaded the very fabric of sports fans. ESPN runs two-hour specials. There are dozens of magazines on newsstands devoted to the game and you can find a league on almost any sporting web site. So what I've set out to do is give you a glimpse at the fantasy impact of two players from each team. One player is sure to dominate (the "Fantasy Phelps") and the other will never live up to all the buzz surrounding him (the "Fantasy Favre").

Fantasy Phelps: Adrian Peterson – AP is the only Minnesota offensive player worth having but, boy, is he worth having. If you have a top-five pick and don't pick an available Peterson you should be covered in peanut butter and left on Mark Henry's door step.
Fantasy Favre: Tarvaris Jackson – Let's face it, you didn't need me to tell you not to take Jackson.

Green Bay Packers: I wish something interesting had happened in Green Bay this offseason. Well there is that quarterback issue.

Ah, the quarterback issue. That's question one, two and three for the Pack. Just one bad pass away from representing the NFC in Super Bowl XLII, Green Bay finally had enough of the Brett Favre merry-go-round and handed the reigns over to Aaron Rodgers.

Other than that, the Packers return in tact. Ryan Grant and Greg Jennings are a year more experienced and the defense (which allowed only 18.2 ppg in '07) has shown no signs of stopping its dominance.

All the pressure falls on Rodgers' shoulders, and that's a little too much for a guy who is already trying to replace a legend.

2008 Record: 7-9

Fantasy Phelps: Ryan Grant & Greg Jennings – Both Grant and Jennings had career years in 2007 and another year of seasoning means even more production from the young duo. Grant will excel because the passing game may suffer without Favre and Jennings will flourish because he will be Rodgers' safety valve.
Fantasy Favre: Aaron Rodgers – Just because Rodgers is running Brett Favre's offense doesn't mean he is Brett Favre.

Chicago Bears: The longer you look at the Chicago offense, the sicker you get. Kyle Orton was just named starter, KYLE FRECKIN' ORTON! Believe it or not, it actually gets worse from there.

Cedric Benson proved to be a huge, embarrassing failure, so Matt Forte and, the other, Adrian Peterson will split time at half back.

To top of the offensive shit sundae, the number one receiver was a corner just two years ago.

For as bad as the offense is, that's not even the worst of it. It is the defense that really let the Bears down in 2007. A unit that was once one of the most feared in the league became a joke, as they allowed the third most yards per game in the league (370).

Sports fans in the Windy City better pray for a Cubs/White Sox World Series because it's going to be a long season at Solider Field.

2008 Record: 5-11

Fantasy Phelps: Devin Hester – If you play in a league where kick returners score individual points Hester is a stud. If not, then he gives the sorry defense a huge boost.
Fantasy Favre: Any other offensive player – Chicago has the lack of talent to set an all time mark for futility.

Detroit Lions: For as bad as the Bears defense was in '07, the Lions were worse. Detroit gave up a league high 393.6 ypg which was over 20 ypg more than the next worst team (Buffalo at 371.9).

The defense gets little help from a running game which struggled last year and this year breaks in a rookie starter. That rookie is NCAA leading rusher Kevin Smith who may have a good year but the learning curve is steep.

The pass offense has the ability to be great with Jon Kitna throwing to Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson but the departure of Mike Martz means a more balanced attack and, thus, less chances for Williams and Johnson to take the game over.

2008 Record: 5-11

Fantasy Phelps: Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson – These two may be the most formidable pass catching duo in the league. Williams has long been a fantasy stud and Johnson will soon be better.
Fantasy Favre: Jon Kitna – Kitna will have a good year and be a valuable back up. With Martz out of town, however, his 4,000-yard seasons are a thing of the past.


AFC North


Pittsburgh Steelers: Last year Ben Roethlisberger quietly had an incredible season. His 34 TDs put him behind, only, Brady and Romo and tied him with Manning. This year he continues his ascension as one of the league's elite passers.

Willie Parker ran for over 1,000 again (1,316 to be exact) and the addition of Rashard Mendenhall gives Pittsburgh another option in short yardage and goalline situations.

Hines Ward had a down statistical year in '07 but continues to do everything well. Santonio Holmes picked up the slack in the numbers department with 942 yards and eight scores.

The defense is what it always it, that is very good. It allowed a league low 281.6 ygp in 2007 and was second best in ppg (16.8).

A great defense and an offense that continues to grow means big things for a team that seems to be flying under the radar heading into '08.

2008 Record: 11-5

Fantasy Phelps: Ben Roethlisberger – Parker will get all the yards on the ground and Mendenhall will score most of the touchdowns. The split means that Roethlisberger is the teams top option. He's might not be a top-five quarterback, but he's close.
Fantasy Favre: Hines Ward – People love Ward and rightfully so. He blocks, makes big catches and is a team leader. The fact of the matter, though, is that he's not an elite fantasy receiver. Holmes has become the teams top option and Ward gets fantasy love based, mostly, on name recognition.

Cleveland Browns: Cleveland can't possibly be as bad as it looked, recently, against the Giants.

Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow may be the top receiver/tight end combo in the game and Jamal Lewis' bounce back ‘07gave the running game a surprising boost.

Derek Anderson's break out 2007 was the key to the Browns' success and a prerequisite for a successful 2008 campaign.

If Anderson stays on track (or Brady Quinn proves to be the starter) the question will be the defense. Cleveland opponents scored more than Ty Pennington (who can forget the shootout with Cincinnati) and has to get better if the Browns hope to make a serious run at the playoffs.

With Romero Cornell at the helm, that's a serious possibility.

2008 Record: 10-6

Fantasy Phelps: Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow – Yes, I' coping out again but I have to. Edwards and Winslow are so good it's too hard to pick just one. It doesn't matter which quarterback is throwing the ball, these two will catch it.
Fantasy Favre: Jamal Lewis – Age has to catch up with Lewis soon. His 1,304 yards in 2007 were nice but I don't see how he can do it at an age where backs usually slow down.

Cincinnati Bengals: The Cincinnati defense needs to be better if the Bengals hope to make the playoffs. The good news is that it can't be much worse. Its 22 sacks were a league low and allowed the secondary to get abused. If Marvin Lewis is really the defense mind people thought he was, now would be a good time to prove it.

If the defense can hold up, even, have the bargain, the offense should take care of the rest.

Carson Palmer could be an MVP candidate, if give the right situation and Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh can make a claim as the top receiving tandem in the sport.

A bounce back year from Rudi Johnson, as well as help from the talk of the pre season, Chris Perry, could spell playoffs for Cincy.

2008 Record: 9-7

Fantasy Phelps: T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Chad may still be the sizzle but it's T.J. who brings the steak. His 12 scores were four more than Johnson's and his 112 catches led the NFL.
Fantasy Favre: Rudi Johnson – Johnson was limited to 11 games in '07 and don't be surprised if Perry takes a lot of this time in '08.


Baltimore Ravens: Man, oh man, this team is bad. It doesn't matter if it's Troy Smith, Kyle Boller or Joe Flacco who wins the starting job at quarterback. One is a too small, one stinks and the third's a rookie and the bottom line is that they won't have a damn bit of help.

Todd Heap is good but Mark Clayton has been a bust, Derrick Mason is ancient Willis McGhee's surgery may leave Ray Rice as the starting running back.

To top it all off the defense, which once ruled supreme, is now merely an average unit. Age has caught up with Ray Lewis and turned him from world beater to good starter. Ed Reed is still a top flight player but this defense doesn't have the fire power to compensate for an awful offense, like in years pasted.

2008 Record: 2-14

Fantasy Phelps: Todd Heap – A lousy quarterback situation usually favors a tight end because their big bodies give make them an easy target. Add to that Heap's natural ability and it could be a big year.
Fantasy Favre: Willis McGhee – Sure the quarterbacks are a mess and the receivers will suffer but if you were planning on drafting them than god help you. McGhee will be back soon but surgeries (especially to legs) worry me.

Just one more remaining, folks. Tomorrow we look at the divisions which brought up last season's Super Bowl participants, was well as the stars in Big D and some guy named Favre. Until then enjoy Greg Jennings "Fantasy Hall of Fame Jacket".