The House of Crouse 9.01.08
Posted by Mark Crouse on 09.01.2008
Labor Day means the last preview for the upcoming fantasy football season. Get ready for your draft with Mark's look at receivers and tight ends.
Welcome to another draft-prepping edition of The House of Crouse. This week, we'll continue breaking down the fantasy rankings by taking a gander at wide receivers and tight ends. But first, let's review some news items that may affect your fantasy prep.
-The Atlanta Falcons have announced that rookie quarterback Matt Ryan has beaten out veteran washups Chris Redman and Joey Harrington for the starting gig. For a franchise that is as low as they can get, Ryan has shown himself to be ahead of the curve for a rookie, and since the Falcons are going nowhere, his development is best served by getting him on the field. For fantasy purposes, Ryan has decent value as a deep keeper, but not much this season.
-The San Francisco 49'ers announced J.T. O'Sullivan as their starting quarterback, beating out former first overall pick Alex Smith. O'Sullivan was said to have been a better fit for Mike Martz's offense, and has looked remarkable in the preseason. He has been in the league for six years, and most fans have never heard of the for mer Cal-Davis signal caller. He has no fantasy value in anything except deep two-quarterback leagues. Don't be the smart guy that goes out on a limb hoping you are the owner that discovers J.T. O'Sullvan in his breakout year. If there was one to be had, a team would have played him before now.
-The Arizona Cardinals have named Kurt Warner their starting quarterback, beating out former top-ten draft pick and beer bong afficianado Matt Leinart. You don't need me to tell you what Warner is: a statue with a quick release who runs the Cardinal offense effectively. If management happens to talk Anquan Boldin off the trade-demand cliff, Warner has good value as a backup for your team. The only trepidation about endorsing him completely is that last season Arizona opted to run a quarterback platoon, using both Warner and Leinart in the same game. That kills both of their values. My guess is they won't do that, since if they liked Leinart at all they would have named him the starter.
-The Cincinnati Bengals released long-time fantasy standby Rudi Johnson, naming Chris Perry as their starting running back. Immediately remove Johnson from your fantasy rankings, while Perry moves up, but don't get too excited. This has all the makings of a time share between Perry and Kenny Watson, who was decently effective last year when Johnson was hurt.
-I had my draft for The Bel Air Allstars league I featured in my end-of-season breakdown last year. With the sixth pick of ten, here's what I came up with, with round drafted in perentheses. Keep in mind that the league awards six points for touchdown passes, which changes things a bit.
QB: Tom Brady (1), Matt Schaub (14)
RB: Michael Turner (3), Darren McFadden (4), Earnest Graham (6), Edgerrin James (8), Justin Fargas (12), Deuce McAllister (13)
WR: Reggie Wayne (2), Santonio Holmes (5), Jerricho Cotchery (7), Patrick Crayton (9), Joey Galloway (10), Jabar Gaffney (16)
TE: Tony Scheffler (11)
DEF: Seattle (15)
K: Josh Brown (17)
A pretty decent haul, considering I got Brady at six. In retrospect, I could have had Addai in round one and still taken Romo in round two, but I wasn't sure if Romo would be there if I waited. My running backs are my weak spot, but I have enough depth that I should be able to get by. My only real misstep was not getting a better tight end, with chances to take Tony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark a little lower than where they should have gone, but choosing to increase my running back depth instead.
We've talked about quarterbacks and running backs, so let's see how receivers look going into '08. Receivers as a group are the fastest risers in fantasy, since the top tier can be considered more than just support for their teams' running backs. Don't stress if Moss or Owens are the best players available in round one or two, since their output will be better than a lot of running backs you can get in that range.
Movin' On Up-Like with the running backs, here are some players I think will produce more than what most fantasy insiders have predicted.
Santonio Holmes-PIT-I'm high on Holmes for a few reasons. He's talented, it's his third year in the league, and his offense isn't as ground-based as previously thought. Holmes has established himself as the Steelers' number one receiver. 1100 yards, 11 TD.
Torry Holt-STL-Holt had a down year in '07, but that was mostly attributable to Mark Bulger's injuries and struggles. With Bulger apparently healthy, Holt should return to form and be a top-ten receiver. He's a bargain where he's being drafted. 1300 yards, 10 TD.
Anthony Gonzalez-IND-Gonzalez is the ultimate risk/reward pick. If Marvin Harrison misses time, the former Ohio State Buckeye becomes the #2 receiver for one of the most potent offenses in the league. Even if Harrison is healthy, he resumes his slot role, and can still put up some numbers. He is being drafted as the latter, so why not take a chance on a guy with real upside as opposed to other receivers in his draft range. 950 yards, 8 TD.
Set For a Fall-These receivers have some question marks over their heads. The following three guys will underachieve this year.
-Chad Johnson-CIN-The newly minted Mr. Ocho Cinco is a bit overrated going into the year since he has a seperated shoulder and other minor injuries and plays for a team that is set to slide a little offensively. He'll still catch a ton of balls, but I wouldn't put him in my top ten, which is where he's being drafted. 1300 yards, 8 TD.
-Wes Welker-NE-Welker has a rib injury that has largely kept him out of presesason action and practice, but I'm putting him on this list because the diminutive Welker is set to take Stallworth's place as the Pats' #2 receiver on the outside, a role that doesn't match his abilities. He may put up similar numbers to last year, but don't expect a bump in stats due to his promotion. 1200 yards, 7 TD.
-Hines Ward-PIT-I'm no fan of Ward as a fantasy option, especially since Santonio Holmes has supplanted him as a deep threat and Heath Miller has become the Steelers' top red zone target. Ward is gritty and can still contribute as an elite blocker and underneath receiver, but don't expect him to be more than a #3 receiver for your squad. 950 yards, 6 TD.
Here are rankings and predictions for the top 45 recievers going into 2008:
Tight Ends are the catchers of fantasy football, with some owners choosing to overdraft the top players at the position, while others wait until they just pluck one out of thin air. The #5-#12 ranked players at the position are basically the same, and they all have questions to be answered. Let's take a closer look.
Movin' On Up-
-Alge Crumpler-TEN-The Titans went out and acquired Crumpler this offseason to help Vince Young progress as a passer. The former Falcon does a great job getting open, is a big target, and can turn it upfield. If you are left out of the tight end run in your league, take a look at this former top-5 player at the position. 700 yards, 6 TD.
-Ben Utecht-CIN-Overshadowed by Dallas Clark, Utecht has decent ability and is going to a team with no real starter at tight end. He probably won't be drafted, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was the first tight end out of the free agent pool. 500 yards, 4 TD.
Set for a Fall-
-Antonio Gates-SD-The guy just came off the PUP list to try to play with a toe injury that has plagued him forever. Let the guy who doesn't pay attention take him way before anyone should. He'll be a week-to-week nightmare. 750 yards, 8 TD.
-Vernon Davis-SF-An absolute specimen, Davis has all the ability in the world, but is limited by nagging injuries and an inept offense. Even with Mike Martz in town (I don't remember the Rams ever even using a tight end), don't expect Davis to fulfil his potential. 600 yards, 4 TD.
Since no one should draft more than one tight end, here are the top 12 at the position:
As for my advice on defenses and kickers, I have one tip: don't take a kicker until the last round under any circumstances. They are far too unpredictable. Generally, the same goes for defenses, but if you are in love with one they can be taken as early as third from last. Do not be the guy that takes the first defense. This paragraph is not a sign of laziness. I won't rank these positions due to the fact that they are all the same for the most part.
That's all this week. I'll be back with a review of Week One, and a preview of Week Two. Until then, Godspeed.
what's with the slight am I expected to believe that no other CAR receiver is good enough to make it in the top 45 except Steve Smith?
Posted By: John (Guest) on September 01, 2008 at 07:16 PM
It's debatable whether D.J. Hackett or Muhsin Muhammad will be worth owning this season. Hackett has been injured for all of training camp, and should play this week, but isn't up to speed in a new offense yet. I don't have much faith in Muhammad reliving his old Carolina days. Just my opinion, but I'd rank them outside the top 45.
Posted By: markyc00 (Guest) on September 01, 2008 at 08:34 PM
1) Moss won't have 18 tds, he'll be double covered the whole year now that Jabar Gaffney is their number 2. He'll have 12.
2)Santonio Holmes won't see 1100 and 11 tds cuz that line can't pass block. Ben will either be scrambling, dumping the ball off, or getting sacked. I'll take Laverneus Coles over him. Homes 850 5td...Coles 1350 11tds.
3) Where is Roy Williams on this list? Are you kidding me? You have Reggie Williams, Ronald Curry, and Antwaan Randel El on this list ahead of him?
Seriously where can I get a job writing for this site, b/c it seems to me just anyone can.
Posted By: DP (Guest) on September 01, 2008 at 11:34 PM
DP, your points are fair, and I respect them as your opinion, but here's why I disagree:
1. I predicted Moss' numbers to take a tick downward from last year. I hate to mention this, since you have some football savvy, but Moss was double covered all last year as well, and he blew the hell up.
2. I am higher on Holmes than a lot of others. My prediction for him came about because he missed three games last season and had over 900 yards and 8 TD. I don't feel he'll recede, despite the offensive line issues the Steelers have had this offseason, so if he plays all 16 games, he should be around 1100 and 11.
3. I'd like to present the first House of Crouse correction. Roy Williams should be at #19, between his teammate Calvin Johnson and Anquan Boldin. I'll predict 1100 yards and 8 TD for him. My apologies for the omission.
To answer your final question, I'm just a guy who loves fantasy football. I've played for about ten years and have won my share of leagues. I'll never claim to be an "expert" because I don't have enough time in the day. The beauty of 411mania is that as far as I know, we all have day jobs and other interests. My goal in writing for the site is to offer another opinion on fantasy football and sports in general that may assist others in playing their leagues. Thank you for your feedback, since I've been waiting some time for a reaction to my work. Keep it coming, and keep me on my toes.
Posted By: markyc00 (Guest) on September 02, 2008 at 10:20 AM
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