The House of Crouse 9.27.08: Week 4 Edition
Posted by Mark Crouse on 09.27.2008
Mark takes a look at who's over and underachieving so far in this week's House.
Welcome to the Week 4 edition of The House of Crouse. Another wild week has passed in the NFL, and as we head into the bye weeks, your squad needs to have at least one win, or you are in big trouble. This week, I'll examine the fantasy landscape position by position, and answer questions from myself in the first self-inflicted mailbag of the '08 season.
Three weeks into the NFL season (for everyone except Baltimore and Houston, two teams that don't have many fantasy stars anyway), we can start to develop an idea of who is living up to their draft position, and who is not. Yes, quality of opponents, injuries, and other external factors affect these numbers, but I feel it is useful to examine the top players at each position, and which players who are underachieving will continue to disappoint, and which will rebound. Here are the top ten players at each postion, based on point-per-game average. Stats are accumulated using the most typical scoring system:
-6 pts for each rushing/receiving TD
-4 pts for each passing TD
-1 pt for every 10 rushing/receiving yards
-1 pt for every 25 passing yards
-(-1) pts for each lost fumble or interception thrown
Notable in their absence: Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Matt Hasselbeck
Cutler, Rivers, and Rodgers are more than five PPG better than Brees at #4. Can they continue? If the answer is yes, it changes how the quarterback position is viewed, since Cutler was considered somewhere in the #8-12 QB drafted in most leagues, and the other two were considered backups at best.
Notable in their absence: Steven Jackson, Larry Johnson, Thomas Jones
Turner has been an absolute beast, but he's played against two of the worst run defenses in the league in Detroit and Kansas City. Numbers are numbers, and he should have a very good rest of the season, but be realistic with expectations. Will Ronnie Brown's monster game against New England mean he is a #1 back? I don't think so, considering Ricky Williams is taking carries from him, and that Sunday was a perfect storm for Brown, particularly the passing TD. It should be noted that on this list, Westbrook, Peterson, LDT, and Parker have injuries of varying severity, which bumps their competitors in the short run.
The lack of production from Jackson and Johnson prove that a team's offensive line play can play a huge role in their lead back's stats. Both of those players receive the vast majority of their teams' carries, but are ranked lower than platoon backs from teams with better lines.
Notable in their absence-Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Wes Welker, Braylon Edwards
I was going to take this list to thirty, but the last ten were virtually the same in output. Wideouts are the wild cards of fantasy football, and this list is Exhibit A. Keep in mind that Royal had a huge Week 1, and has been relegated to the third option, so his numbers are skewed. When you examine this list, my advice is to rearrange the ranking based on opportunity, the best example being Royal or Chansi Stuckey. Stuckey is the third option for Favre, and has caught goal-line scores to boost his numbers. By the end of the season, Stuckey will move down the list based on that fact.
Whether the three biggest underachievers will right the ship will decide a lot of fantasy teams' destinies. Moss and Welker are obvious victims of Brady's injury. Moss' status as a deep threat, and his obvious glut of talent will allow him to put up respectable numbers for the rest of the year. I have no faith that Welker will rebound, although this is no jab at his skill, only that Cassel probably won't be able to get him the ball consistently. As for Holt, there's no hope. Things were bad with Bulger, but now the statuesque (and I mean that regarding his mobility, not his looks) Trent Green takes the helm behind a sieve-like offensive line. Let the frustration ensue. Edwards is near the top of the league in drops again at this point, and I have limited faith in his matching last season's numbers. If Brady Quinn takes the QB spot at some point, his prospects improve, but only slightly.
Why rank twelve? Because two of them are Dolphin tight ends, and Cooley deserves a spot since there are so many questionable entries. Witten is the head of the class, but hasn't scored yet. Scheffler has paid off in two of the three games so far, and Gates has produced. Overall, take a shot with a tight end and leave them alone, as long as they are getting looks. The tight end is only the fun-fetti filled icing on the fantasy cake.
And now...the self-inflicted mailbag!
Dear Mark,
My team is struggling at 0-3, and I have Aaron Rodgers on my bench in favor of Peyton Manning. My team lacks top running backs due to my drafting of Steven Jackson and Laurence Maroney as my starters. Will Rodgers' output make Manning expendable, or will I regret trading the king of the pitchmen? Let me know what I should do before my season goes poof!
Thanks,
Defeated in Delaware
Defeated,
You have a classic case of asset surplus. If you were somehow 2-1 or better, I'd say wait for some things to hash out, but you need better backs to contend. The only problem is that you may not be able to get full value for Manning at this point. To answer your question, yes, Rodgers' output makes Manning expendable. Try to find a Manning fan who is willing to ignore his rocky start, and push the opinion that the Colts QB is still nursing a balky knee and will improve as the season progresses. If you can get a solid back, for example Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch, or Clinton Portis, make the deal. You can't play two QB.
Dear Mark,
How good is Brandon Marshall? I have him, and I've been getting trade offers, but he's my best player. I'm 2-1, and my team has some slow starters. Trading Marshall would balance my roster, and his value will never be higher. What to do? By the way, my other receivers are Santonio Holmes, Braylon Edwards, and Lee Evans.
Speculative in Spokane
Speculative,
Marshall is the best receiver in football in the two games he's played, and you know what, I'm going to go out on an limb and say that barring injury, he'll end the season ranked #1. Why, you ask? Because he gets more opportunities than anyone in the league, and no one can cover him, just ask Antonio Cromartie. He also has Cutler, who has a great repoire with him, and plays on a team with a defense that will forever keep their opponents in games. Don't trade Marshall, since I don't think anyone can offer you fair value for him. Don't overthink things and pat yourelf on the back for taking him.
Well, that's it for this week. Enjoy the games, and watch out for my Ravens on Monday Night pummeling Big Ben and the Steelers. And as always, Godspeed.
I have both Warner and Brees, but tend to like Warner more considering I have both Boldin and Fitzgerald on my team as well. Is it safe to go and trade brees? Can Warner hold up for the year?
Posted By: Scott (Guest) on September 27, 2008 at 12:17 PM
Good question. Warner has continued to sling the ball all over the field, and has put up numbers that rival Brees. Two things to note: Arizona and New Orleans have really easy schedules for their passers, and having Boldin and Fitz throws a curve into the equation. Here's what I would do-talk to owners in your league that need help at QB (look to the guy who drafted Brady first). You may be surprised and find someone who would give you equal value for either signal caller. If possible, trade Warner, since he is a higher injury risk, and because having three Cardinals makes for a dangerous mix if they are actually held in check for a week. Do I think Warner will hold up? As long as he stays healthy, there's no reason he won't. All things being equal, keep Brees if you can. Oh, and by the way, make sure you get a QB back or pick one up from waives, since not having a somewhat reliable backup can derail what is a good start. I'll assume the rest of your team is at least solid by your record.
Thanks for the question. Keep 'em coming people!
Posted By: markyc00 (Guest) on September 27, 2008 at 07:40 PM
Copyright � 2011 411mania.com, LLC. All rights reserved.
Click here for our privacy policy. Please help us serve you better, fill out our survey.
Use of this site signifies your agreement to our terms of use.
